How many goals for Ovechkin

[Canucks1096]

In the offseason there was a thread about this. Most people were guessing in the 40 range. There was another thread after Ovechkin got 7 goals in his first 2 games. People were guessing 50 to 60.

So after first 2 games Ovechkin now has 6 goals in his 19 games.

So how many goals for Ovechkin this season? My guess 40 to 45.

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[Alexander the Gr8]

40 goals is still a reasonable target. Needs 27 goals in the remaining 62 games. That's a 36 goal pace, a little bit higher than what he did last year.

 

[hockeykicker]

40 goals is still a reasonable target. Needs 27 goals in the remaining 62 games. That's a 36 goal pace, a little bit higher than what he did last year.

thats pretty easily attainable for him. hes gonna have a hattrick or two in there likely

 

[Ryan Michaels]

It never ceases to amaze me how people here claim they are ready for early season anomalies but than after two games flip their **** and change their goal prediction for a player by 20.

 

[wildandwoolly]

He has 13 goals. So that's how many he'll have is my guess. Since he already has it. Safe answer.

 

[Zuluss]

Right now, Ovechkin is on pace for exactly 50 goals (14/23*82). His shooting % is also pretty mundane at 13.5. So 50 goals forecast is optimistic, but by no means outrageous. He had a lot of puck luck in the first few games, then had a fair share of bad luck lately, but it all has evened out.

Ovechkin is a volume shooter, in his last three Richard-winning campaigns, his shot totals were 386-395-398, and the shooting % hovered around 13. Last season, his low goals total was due to a wrist injury he played through, which brought down both his shots (to 313) and his shooting % (to 10.5). A similar thing also happened in 2010-11.

As of today, Ovechkin is on pace for roughly 370 shots for the season. If his shooting percentage stays at 13.5 (close to 13.4 for the full 14/15 season), he will get his 50 goals. If his shots end up at a lower number, say, 340, and his shooting % deteriorates to 12.3 career average (e.g., because Caps PP has been getting less efficient along with Ovechkin's PPG totals), he will end up with 42 goals.

So 45 seems to be a good over/under assuming OV does not miss more than 2-4 games (which has been a safe bet with him so far, but he is 32, so who knows).

 

[Alexander the Gr8]

Right now, Ovechkin is on pace for exactly 50 goals (14/23*82). His shooting % is also pretty mundane at 13.5. So 50 goals forecast is optimistic, but by no means outrageous. He had a lot of puck luck in the first few games, then had a fair share of bad luck lately, but it all has evened out.

Ovechkin is a volume shooter, in his last three Richard-winning campaigns, his shot totals were 386-395-398, and the shooting % hovered around 13. Last season, his low goals total was due to a wrist injury he played through, which brought down both his shots (to 313) and his shooting % (to 10.5). A similar thing also happened in 2010-11.

As of today, Ovechkin is on pace for roughly 370 shots for the season. If his shooting percentage stays at 13.5 (close to 13.4 for the full 14/15 season), he will get his 50 goals. If his shots end up at a lower number, say, 340, and his shooting % deteriorates to 12.3 career average (e.g., because Caps PP has been getting less efficient along with Ovechkin's PPG totals), he will end up with 42 goals.

So 45 seems to be a good over/under assuming OV does not miss more than 2-4 games (which has been a safe bet with him so far, but he is 32, so who knows).

42 goals is the exact number he needs to reach 600 career goals. I expect him to try harder to score goals in an attempt to reach the 600 goal milestone. If he's anywhere near 40, he'll make the push to 42. Just like when he had 47 goals in 2016 and scored a hat trick in his last game of the season to hit 50.

 

[Thenameless]

Don't know if he'll get there, but I'd love to see him have another 50 goal season.

 

[Filatov2Kovalev2Bonk]

I want him to hit 600/50 just so Dean and Gord at TSN1200 have their heads spin into orbit in childish jealousy.
They have been crapping on him for years, it's mind-boggling how inane they are.

 

[rent free]

36

 

[The Panther]

Hard to predict, eh? 7 goals in two games, followed by 7 in twenty-one games...

In conclusion, he's going to score somewhere between 20 and 55 goals. Glad I cleared that up.

 

[Chef de Cuisine]

It never ceases to amaze me how people here claim they are ready for early season anomalies but than after two games flip their **** and change their goal prediction for a player by 20.

hahahaah so true

 

[Paul4587]

39. Book it.

 

[Khomutov]

He played through a injury last year and still scored 33, so if he stay healthy, Ovechkin should have 40-45 goals at the end of the season. With some luck he could break 50, but he is 32 years old now, i don't know.

 

[Thenameless]

He played through a injury last year and still scored 33, so if he stay healthy, Ovechkin should have 40-45 goals at the end of the season. With some luck he could break 50, but he is 32 years old now, i don't know.

I think 40-45 is a very reasonable estimate.

 

[tony d]

I think he'll get 40 goals, which is still good in this day and age.

 

[RaindanceMaggie]

He's always been a streaky guy, he's had plenty of stretches where he's had like 5-8 goals in 20 games and then scored 15 in the next 20.

 

[Zuluss]

Hard to predict, eh? 7 goals in two games, followed by 7 in twenty-one games...

In conclusion, he's going to score somewhere between 20 and 55 goals. Glad I cleared that up.

The number of goals within a small sample (10-15 games) is indeed relatively hard to predict.
However, once we start talking about full seasons, the shooting % becomes quite stable, so all one needs is the initial sample of 20-30 games to see how the shots are panning out. The prediction will not be very precise, to the tune of "give or take 5 goals" (e.g., 30 give or take 5 is somewhere between top10 finish and top50 finish), but last year around mid-January I predicted Crosby's goals to end up between 39 and 44 (that was when he had something like 26 in 31) and got it right in the end despite most people initially saying "no way".
Now, injuries are another matter and are indeed impossible to predict.

 

[yangmang]

30

 

[txpd]

Historically he doesn't get going until the mid point of the season. He is closer to the NHL lead in goals at this point than most of his 50 goal seasons. He doesn't wear down at the same rate ad nitmal players. 50 is still legit. Facts are the power play is still not right with kuzy on it and he has just bow started playing with backstrom

 

[txpd]

30

That's hilarious

 

[Eisen]

I'd still wager about 45.

 

[Johnny HFBOARDS]

Welcome to the 20 goal club comrade

 

[Tofveve]

41

 

[jetsforever]

HFBoards, where opinions drastically change day to day

I'd say in the 45-55 range