User9992
Registered User
- Feb 27, 2016
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With recent news, how many goals do you think Ovi gonna score next 5 seasons? And how many career goals he gonna end up with? He is currently at '730 goals' mark.
with his luck we'll have a cancelled season at some point during his new contract for some reason and he'll end up at like 870
I wish 2004-05 & 2012-13 lockouts never happened. Also COVID shortened seasons ruined picture there.
Last 3 full seasons: 51, 49, 48 (in 68 GP so 58 goal pace). This last season, despite injuries and covid protocol, was on pace for 44 goals. League scoring is going up. He should be good for at least 40+ the next 2 years. Barring injury and/or another lockout, he's going to hit 900. Also, if for some reason he doesn't break 894 within the next 5 years but he's close enough, he's obviously going to come back to break it.
X' year old season | Goal Ranking |
30 | 5 |
31 | 38 |
32 | 3 |
33 | 2 |
34 | 1 |
35 (proj. 82GP) | 2 |
1st | 2nd | 3rd | 5th | 10th | 20th | |
Current | 730 | 730 | 730 | 730 | 730 | 730 |
36 | 48 | 42 | 40 | 38 | 33 | 29 |
37 | 40 | 36 | 34 | 32 | 29 | 23 |
38 | 37 | 31 | 30 | 27 | 24 | 19 |
39 | 39 | 29 | 28 | 27 | 24 | 18 |
40 | 44 | 36 | 31 | 23 | 16 | 10 |
After 5 years | 938 | 904 | 893 | 877 | 856 | 829 |
The lower end of that is an average of 20 goals per season. Not a chance he AVERAGES that low. Although I can see him trailing to that mark by year 5.He will fall short. I see him finishing up with 830-850 goals.
Here is Ovi's all-time ranking in 'X' aged seasons (ex/ most goals a 33 year old has put up in a single season)
Ovi has been the best 30-35 year old goal scorer in the history of the league. Here are projections based on if he has consistent 1st/2nd/3rd/5th/10th/20th place finishes for these "x-aged" all time rankings.[TBODY] [/TBODY]
X' year old season Goal Ranking 30 5 31 38 32 3 33 2 34 1 35 (proj. 82GP) 2
Some items to consider with this analysis:[TBODY] [/TBODY]
1st 2nd 3rd 5th 10th 20th Current 730 730 730 730 730 730 36 48 42 40 38 33 29 37 40 36 34 32 29 23 38 37 31 30 27 24 19 39 39 29 28 27 24 18 40 44 36 31 23 16 10 After 5 years 938 904 893 877 856 829
-> League wide scoring is appearing to increase, which could help Ovi since he's put up the numbers he has in a relatively low scoring era (especially compared to the top-5 all time in goals).
-> Ovechkin is a lot healthier than a large portion of the players ahead of him
-> Ovechkin is a much better goalscorer than pretty much every guy ahead of him. (ex/ #7 for 40 year old seasons is Gary Roberts with 20. Ovechkin is twice the goalscorer Roberts ever was).
-> Ovechkin could easily finish the 5 years 15 goals away and sign one more year to break the record
Yeah it's definitely hard to try and draw comparisons when really no elite player has had both the consistency and health that Ovechkin has had in his 30-35 year old seasons (and as far as health goes, throughout his whole career). I completely agree that there's always the chance he could take a steep nosedive in play - I think a lot of that will be on his personal discipline to stay healthy and train.Just to put this into the proper perspective though - it's true Ovechkin is a better goal-scorer than those ahead of him. But that doesn't necessarily imply he'll score more goals than anyone ever every year without fail. That's a hell of a high bar. Players age differently.
Gretzky is pretty good - but he didn't have the highest point total ever for a 35, 36, 37 year old. (and Gretzky is much more dominant at points than Ovi is at goals)
Jagr is pretty good too, and aged great by all accounts - but he has only the 15th best point season for a 39 year old for example.
I tried to think of other comparable players to do a parallel with, but it's hard. There are very few players in history who have the pedigree Ovechkin has - and most who do didn't have a 'normal' career. Lafleur - fell off a cliff due to injuries, Bossy retired early, Lemieux way too many missed games later on, Hull went to WHA, etc. So - not a ton of good comparables. Even Jagr - he wasn't even in the NHL for ages 35-38.
I think the big x-factor in all of this - and something no one is really able to predict - is how Ovechkin will decline with age. Sometimes - players will just fall off a cliff unexpectedly due to age, and there's nothing you can really do about it. It's true he looks good so far and I agree with many of your points that there are things going for him that point to him continuing to age well - but, it's unpredictable. He might do ~50/45/40/30/30, but he may also unexpectedly tap out at ~25-30 next year and not be able to surpass it anymore if he loses a step
Gretzky - point ranking | ||
30 | 4 | |
31 | 3 | (Gretzky injured, projected points to 80 GP) |
32 | 1 | |
33 | 18 | (Lockout - Gretzky point/gp - assumed 82 points) |
34 | 1 | |
35 | 4 | |
36 | 3 | |
37 | 16 | (Gretzky's last year) |