How many career goals Ovi gonna end up with?

[User9992]

With recent news, how many goals do you think Ovi gonna score next 5 seasons? And how many career goals he gonna end up with? He is currently at '730 goals' mark.

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[User9992]

I wonder how many goals he could have if there wasn't lockouts & other shortened seasons.

 

[EdJovanovski]

Every time people have counted Ovechkin out he's proven them wrong. I firmly believe he will break Gretzky's record, this 5 year contract solidifies that.

 

[ricky0034]

with his luck we'll have a cancelled season at some point during his new contract for some reason and he'll end up at like 870

 

[User9992]

with his luck we'll have a cancelled season at some point during his new contract for some reason and he'll end up at like 870

I wish 2004-05 & 2012-13 lockouts never happened. Also COVID shortened seasons ruined picture there.

 

[Regal]

I wish 2004-05 & 2012-13 lockouts never happened. Also COVID shortened seasons ruined picture there.

I still believe the '05 lockout didn't end up hindering Ovechkin's career totals much due to the scoring increase and crackdown on obstruction helping him at the start. But '13 and the past two seasons certainly cost a few.

 

[Regal]

I think if he plays all 5 seasons, he can top 900. I think he comes back with a good year this year and has one more season around 50 which would really help. And I expect him to hit 30 each year at least the first three, unless he runs into injuries. Something like 50, 40, 35, 30, 25 would put him at 910. Take off a few for injuries maybe, but it seems plausible given how good he still is, and it's possible he could do better. Crazy that he should already move into 3rd place after this year.

 

[KoozNetsOff 92]

Last 3 full seasons: 51, 49, 48 (in 68 GP so 58 goal pace). This last season, despite injuries and covid protocol, was on pace for 44 goals. League scoring is going up. He should be good for at least 40+ the next 2 years. Barring injury and/or another lockout, he's going to hit 900. Also, if for some reason he doesn't break 894 within the next 5 years but he's close enough, he's obviously going to come back to break it.

 

[User9992]

Last 3 full seasons: 51, 49, 48 (in 68 GP so 58 goal pace). This last season, despite injuries and covid protocol, was on pace for 44 goals. League scoring is going up. He should be good for at least 40+ the next 2 years. Barring injury and/or another lockout, he's going to hit 900. Also, if for some reason he doesn't break 894 within the next 5 years but he's close enough, he's obviously going to come back to break it.

Yeah, something like minimum salary contract for a 1 or 2... or couple of month.

 

[Paul4587]

861

35 next season, then 31, 26, 22 and 17 to finish his career.

 

[um]

He’s going for 1000!

 

[GermanSpitfire]

Going to go for the safe bet and say 2.

 

[Stewie Griffin]

I think he finishes just above 900.

 

[Holymakinaw]

Given his age and the reality of slowing down soon, I say he ends up somewhere around 850 goals for his career, just shy of Gretzky's record. So that's 120 more goals over the last 5 years of his career.

 

[Poppy Whoa Sonnet]

In 3 years when the Caps suck, it'll be clear they'll let him play until he breaks the record as they stockpile young talent.

 

[filinski77]

Here is Ovi's all-time ranking in 'X' aged seasons (ex/ most goals a 33 year old has put up in a single season)

X' year old season	Goal Ranking
30	5
31	38
32	3
33	2
34	1
35 (proj. 82GP)	2

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Ovi has been the best 30-35 year old goal scorer in the history of the league. Here are projections based on if he has consistent 1st/2nd/3rd/5th/10th/20th place finishes for these "x-aged" all time rankings.

	1st	2nd	3rd	5th	10th	20th
Current	730	730	730	730	730	730
36	48	42	40	38	33	29
37	40	36	34	32	29	23
38	37	31	30	27	24	19
39	39	29	28	27	24	18
40	44	36	31	23	16	10
After 5 years	938	904	893	877	856	829

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Some items to consider with this analysis:
-> League wide scoring is appearing to increase, which could help Ovi since he's put up the numbers he has in a relatively low scoring era (especially compared to the top-5 all time in goals).
-> Ovechkin is a lot healthier than a large portion of the players ahead of him
-> Ovechkin is a much better goalscorer than pretty much every guy ahead of him. (ex/ #7 for 40 year old seasons is Gary Roberts with 20. Ovechkin is twice the goalscorer Roberts ever was).
-> Ovechkin could easily finish the 5 years 15 goals away and sign one more year to break the record

 

[82Ninety42011]

All depends if he wants the record that bad. He will slow down but will get his PP goals regardless. I say he gets 75 goals next 2 seasons combined than anywhere between 20-30 the last three years. He's gonna finish this deal around 900 give or take 20. Guess he might be signing a one year deal after possibly if isn't already passed 894.

 

[Fataldogg]

He will fall short. I see him finishing up with 830-850 goals.

 

[Fledgemyhedge]

He will fall short. I see him finishing up with 830-850 goals.

The lower end of that is an average of 20 goals per season. Not a chance he AVERAGES that low. Although I can see him trailing to that mark by year 5.

Can’t see him scoring below 20 goals in a season with that shot.

 

[LaMasquerade]

849 .. this is based on scientific formula factoring in the rate of decline in production after 35 and expected injuries..

 

[ted2019]

800-850. Father time ALWAYS wins.

 

[bobholly39]

Here is Ovi's all-time ranking in 'X' aged seasons (ex/ most goals a 33 year old has put up in a single season)

X' year old season	Goal Ranking
30	5
31	38
32	3
33	2
34	1
35 (proj. 82GP)	2

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Ovi has been the best 30-35 year old goal scorer in the history of the league. Here are projections based on if he has consistent 1st/2nd/3rd/5th/10th/20th place finishes for these "x-aged" all time rankings.

	1st	2nd	3rd	5th	10th	20th
Current	730	730	730	730	730	730
36	48	42	40	38	33	29
37	40	36	34	32	29	23
38	37	31	30	27	24	19
39	39	29	28	27	24	18
40	44	36	31	23	16	10
After 5 years	938	904	893	877	856	829

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Some items to consider with this analysis:
-> League wide scoring is appearing to increase, which could help Ovi since he's put up the numbers he has in a relatively low scoring era (especially compared to the top-5 all time in goals).
-> Ovechkin is a lot healthier than a large portion of the players ahead of him
-> Ovechkin is a much better goalscorer than pretty much every guy ahead of him. (ex/ #7 for 40 year old seasons is Gary Roberts with 20. Ovechkin is twice the goalscorer Roberts ever was).
-> Ovechkin could easily finish the 5 years 15 goals away and sign one more year to break the record

Just to put this into the proper perspective though - it's true Ovechkin is a better goal-scorer than those ahead of him. But that doesn't necessarily imply he'll score more goals than anyone ever every year without fail. That's a hell of a high bar. Players age differently.

Gretzky is pretty good - but he didn't have the highest point total ever for a 35, 36, 37 year old. (and Gretzky is much more dominant at points than Ovi is at goals)
Jagr is pretty good too, and aged great by all accounts - but he has only the 15th best point season for a 39 year old for example.

I tried to think of other comparable players to do a parallel with, but it's hard. There are very few players in history who have the pedigree Ovechkin has - and most who do didn't have a 'normal' career. Lafleur - fell off a cliff due to injuries, Bossy retired early, Lemieux way too many missed games later on, Hull went to WHA, etc. So - not a ton of good comparables. Even Jagr - he wasn't even in the NHL for ages 35-38.

I think the big x-factor in all of this - and something no one is really able to predict - is how Ovechkin will decline with age. Sometimes - players will just fall off a cliff unexpectedly due to age, and there's nothing you can really do about it. It's true he looks good so far and I agree with many of your points that there are things going for him that point to him continuing to age well - but, it's unpredictable. He might do ~50/45/40/30/30, but he may also unexpectedly tap out at ~25-30 next year and not be able to surpass it anymore if he loses a step

 

[filinski77]

Just to put this into the proper perspective though - it's true Ovechkin is a better goal-scorer than those ahead of him. But that doesn't necessarily imply he'll score more goals than anyone ever every year without fail. That's a hell of a high bar. Players age differently.

Gretzky is pretty good - but he didn't have the highest point total ever for a 35, 36, 37 year old. (and Gretzky is much more dominant at points than Ovi is at goals)
Jagr is pretty good too, and aged great by all accounts - but he has only the 15th best point season for a 39 year old for example.

I tried to think of other comparable players to do a parallel with, but it's hard. There are very few players in history who have the pedigree Ovechkin has - and most who do didn't have a 'normal' career. Lafleur - fell off a cliff due to injuries, Bossy retired early, Lemieux way too many missed games later on, Hull went to WHA, etc. So - not a ton of good comparables. Even Jagr - he wasn't even in the NHL for ages 35-38.

I think the big x-factor in all of this - and something no one is really able to predict - is how Ovechkin will decline with age. Sometimes - players will just fall off a cliff unexpectedly due to age, and there's nothing you can really do about it. It's true he looks good so far and I agree with many of your points that there are things going for him that point to him continuing to age well - but, it's unpredictable. He might do ~50/45/40/30/30, but he may also unexpectedly tap out at ~25-30 next year and not be able to surpass it anymore if he loses a step

Yeah it's definitely hard to try and draw comparisons when really no elite player has had both the consistency and health that Ovechkin has had in his 30-35 year old seasons (and as far as health goes, throughout his whole career). I completely agree that there's always the chance he could take a steep nosedive in play - I think a lot of that will be on his personal discipline to stay healthy and train.

Here's Gretzky's point rankings for the same 'X' aged seasons. Other than his very last year, and his lockout year, Gretzky was still top-notch.

	Gretzky - point ranking
30	4
31	3	(Gretzky injured, projected points to 80 GP)
32	1
33	18	(Lockout - Gretzky point/gp - assumed 82 points)
34	1
35	4
36	3
37	16	(Gretzky's last year)

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Ovi has been healthier than Gretzky has, and the ideal situation is to assume that that trend will continue - but in reality who knows. The difference between the two is that Gretzky retired because he knew he was slowing down (and nobody really knows if he was giving it his all in his last season or not) - but Gretzky was still incredibly effective from years 35-37.

The big difference is that Gretzky slowed down to a 97, 90, 73 (proj. 82gp) point player. He could have very well played another seasons and went a point/gp - but that wasn't good enough for him. Ovechkin slowing down to a 35 goal scorer is probably a pretty good equivalent to Gretzky slowing down to a point/gp player. The difference is that Gretzky had nothing else to chase - Ovechkin has the goal record.

 

[Canadiens Ghost]

Exactly 894 creating heated debates till the end of times.

 

[Plural]

895. He scores a goal, drops his stick and skates off the ice. Retiring for good.