Speculation: How do you feel about the rebuild, and how confident are you in the team's direction?

[Hockey Duckie]

Didn’t really know where it belongs but given it’s about the direction the athletic staff would take the Ducks if they had their way I thought this was the best thread.

For anyone who wants a laugh and has the Athletic read this:

How we’d run the Ducks: Unload veterans and keep adding prospects
How we'd run the Ducks: Unload veterans and keep adding prospects

Just shows how ignorant some of the mainstream media is about the Ducks and also how bad Dom’s analytical models are. For anyone without a subscription, his model ranks Lindholm as a low end top 4 dman and ranks Shattenkirk as not only our best dman but also a number one dman.

That model places a lot of value on scoring, which is why Shattenkirk gets high props. Essentially, it's the same model for picking the Norris winner. Lindholm wouldn't be a high end candidate for the Norris because scoring isn't his game, but Lindolm is the guy we put out against the opposing team's best scorers all the time.

With that said, I really like our defensive corps, and that's without knowing who #6 and #7 are!

Lindholm-Manson
Fowler-Shattenkirk
Djoos- ???
???​

With a better defensive unit in front of Gibson, that will help Gibson out tremendously. I like the fact that Dom's analytics identifies Shattenkirk as a top-end defensive goal scorer! We were a -39 goal differential. By adding Shattenkirk and Djoos, they both can help reduce that negative goal differential. Curran could be that dark horse on the third line that can bring some scoring at ES or on the PP.

On the forward side, I think Heinen helps with reducing that negative goal differential as well since he plays a good 200-ft, defensively responsible game like Silf. Will that be enough. I don't think so. We do need the youth corps step up this season in Milano, Steel, and whoever else makes the forward squad.

Just want to point out that the Ducks scored 187 goals last year. Also last year, the Stars only scored 180 goals, but were a +3 goal differential.

 

[Gliff]

I think the article is good, outside of the labeling of top4/6/elite/ect.
It screams numbers without context of the eye test.

Other then that I agree with it and have been saying it for a while. Even if Zegras and Drysdale hit their peak potential and are legit #1 center/RD, the Ducks are still not even close to competing for a cup.

This is the time to tank. Short season wthout fans is literally the Dream time to tank.

Trade Manson and Rakell for starters.

 

[Trojans86]

One more year of tank and we should be in a great spot if our guys develop properly

 

[bracer028]

We need to dump Rakell, Henrique, Silf, and get a good price on gibson and we are good to go.

 

[Gliff]

We need to dump Rakell, Henrique, Silf, and get a good price on gibson and we are good to go.

I would say there is no chance a complete tear down like that happens.

Gibsons return would have to be a no brained.

Silfverberg is a perfect guy to keep through a rebuild. He is a great two way example and works his ass off.

 

[dracom]

We need to dump Rakell, Henrique, Silf, and get a good price on gibson and we are good to go.

Lol you continue to post the exact opposite of what we need to do to be successful. Keep it up

 

[Hockey Duckie]

Other then that I agree with it and have been saying it for a while. Even if Zegras and Drysdale hit their peak potential and are legit #1 center/RD, the Ducks are still not even close to competing for a cup.

This is the time to tank. Short season wthout fans is literally the Dream time to tank.

In a short season, it might be our best chance to get into the playoffs because we won't be exposed due to a long season. heh Remember how we started off hot last year?

As for competing for a cup, doesn't that apply to over 20 NHL teams because most would be playoff bound, but not necessarily high potential Stanley Cup competitors. Sometimes, teams that aren't high potential Cup contenders find their way to that show. A common trait for those teams are elite netminding.

Elite Players: G Gibson
1st line players: D Lindholm

Potential elite prospects: F Zegras, D Drysdale, G Dostal, F Perrault

While many do look for superstars to make the team relevant and, often, relying only on superstars, many neglect that superstars aren't readily available. So you have to make do with better secondary or tertiary talent to make the team. Some teams are stacked offensive. Some teams are stacked defensively. A few teams are have very good offense and defense, which would make those teams high potential Cup contenders.

Right now, the Ducks' future looks good in net (Dostal) and defense (Drysdale, Thrun, and LaCombe). We're also set with G Gibson and D Lindholm (when we extend his contract). But we also have Fowler signed for a while. Going into this season, there is no need to push Drysdale in the NHL roster because out of the 7 defensive roster spots, our top-5 is filled. There is a possibility that we keep Shattenkirk for all three seasons. Which could mean whenever Drysdale comes over to the NHL, then he'd be groomed and sheltered on the third pairing, strengthening the defense more. We also could have a solid third pairing RHD developing in Axel Andersson as that tertiary talent.

Oddly enough, while defense looks good and got good in a hurry, the offense doesn't share a similar fate. Anaheim is represented by six players at this year's WJC's with F Zegras, F Colangelo, D Thrun, D LaCombe, D Drysdale, and C Sundsvik.

Tanking can't help if the prospect doesn't develop. 10th overall LW Ritchie didn't pan out. 15th overall C Holland didn't pan out. Under Murray, we have had three forwards that shined: Palms (26th), Rakell (30th overall) and Kase (7th round). Though, none of them superstars. Before Zegras (9th overall), our best prospect was a Terry (5th round). Our own homegrown superstars were not top-10 selections in Getz (19th) and Perry (28th). We almost lost Perry in a trade, but thankfully the Oil organization was too greedy and nixed that deal! We're just waiting on our forward prospects to be NHL-competent: C Steel, RW Terry, LW Comtois, LW Jones, C Lundestrom, and, now, C Zegras. We also still have Perreault and Tracey stewing.

I agree that we have no elite forward today and having that elite forward can help turn around the organization. Yet, did you see how long the Oil languished in that tanking mentality? A decade. The tanking philosophy plays mental games, which is what did last year with some veterans as per GM Murray. You have to develop a culture of always striving to be better and do it collectively. We don't know what we really have in Heinen and Milano, both who can affect how our offense plays. We added a PP specialist in Shattenkirk. We added depth D with Djoos. GM Murray is trying to strike that balance of trying to stay relevant and it comes with a cost. The last two seasons, we were hit with mass injuries and the Ducks couldn't recover from it because we also had other situations with C Kesler and F Eaves that were beyond our control. Both are top-6 forwards. Perry's talent dropping off like a cliff exacerbated the mass injury situation. At least we can say the team played it out the best they could and not because they really wanted to tank completely.

On the bright side, with Dostal here, maybe he can lessen the burden on Gibby. BTW, both goalies were not first round picks.

 

[bracer028]

Lol you continue to post the exact opposite of what we need to do to be successful. Keep it up

we ain't going no where with this garbage ass team. Silf is a filler on a contender, not on a rebuilding team.

 

[dracom]

we ain't going no where with this garbage ass team. Silf is a filler on a contender, not on a rebuilding team.

still wrong lol.

we're not garbage. and trading our 3/4 of our best forwards does nothing but make us worse for years, forces rookies to play where they shouldn't harming their development, creates a losing culture, shows the players that no matter how successful you are here you'll be dropped the moment the team isn't a contender. you say we're not going anywhere, but constantly moving players like you always suggest just means we'll never go anywhere.

also Silf would be a key contributor to any contender.

 

[Sean Garrity]

I know we’re in a pandemic, but Why do we continue to feed the trolls?

 

[pbgoalie]

still wrong lol.

we're not garbage. and trading our 3/4 of our best forwards does nothing but make us worse for years, forces rookies to play where they shouldn't harming their development, creates a losing culture, shows the players that no matter how successful you are here you'll be dropped the moment the team isn't a contender. you say we're not going anywhere, but constantly moving players like you always suggest just means we'll never go anywhere.

also Silf would be a key contributor to any contender.

re silfv
Especially in playoffs. Defensive responsible and can put some points up. Contenders would love him

 

[bracer028]

still wrong lol.

we're not garbage. and trading our 3/4 of our best forwards does nothing but make us worse for years, forces rookies to play where they shouldn't harming their development, creates a losing culture, shows the players that no matter how successful you are here you'll be dropped the moment the team isn't a contender. you say we're not going anywhere, but constantly moving players like you always suggest just means we'll never go anywhere.

also Silf would be a key contributor to any contender.

This team is not going to win a cup. I guarantee it. If you arent going after the cup, you are doing it wrong

 

[dracom]

This team is not going to win a cup. I guarantee it. If you arent going after the cup, you are doing it wrong

30 teams aren’t going to win the cup. Only a handful of teams are seen as “true contenders.” Should the other teams just give up before the season starts and trade away their most productive players for futures?

your logic is hilarious flawed as usual.

 

[lwvs84]

The Ducks should evaluate their assets for 3 years down the road. That is the most realistic time when they're more than a fringe playoff team. Is the player either going to be part of their plans in 3 years (like Gibson and Lindholm should be) or is the player going to help the young guys along who should step up in that time (like Silf and Rico would)? I would keep Silf and Rico because they are smart and good defensively, those are the types of players you want around young guys even if you think they won't be key players in 3 years. Getzlaf too (not that the Ducks have a choice in that). Rakell and maybe Manson would be the guys I'd look to move. Rakell has to have big value because of his contract, Manson I'd only move if you could get a younger d-man that can provide toughness that Manson brings (like Cernak). With so many kids coming up, having a few tough guys there to protect them would still be smart. I'd want the young guys to go over video with some of the smarter vets (Silf, Rico, Getz, etc.) to explain their decision making. Hopefully it'll help the kids develop better two way games and help their approach to the game.

 

[Smirnov2Chistov]

We need to dump Rakell, Henrique, Silf, and get a good price on gibson and we are good to go.

I won’t harp on you like other posters have. Silf you must keep with a team like this. He’s good leader and plays a solid two-way game.

I’m torn between getting rid of Henrique and Rakell. Henrique - although streaky, is a solid top-6 guy that can play in any situation. I don’t see, on that contract, a team paying much unless it’s an overpayment deadline acquisition. I would love to keep Rakell around. I feel like a lot of posters on here are a bit hard on him. It’s been a down year for him, and this team doesn’t have any offensive firepower but him really.

Gibson is really the wildcard here. I know he’s an excellent goalie. I just feel as though we are wasting some prime years of Gibson here with no supporting cast around him. Some team would definitely pay a premium for him, but a lot of posters here say that goalies don’t command much. Maybe we ‘could’ entertain a thought.

 

[bracer028]

30 teams aren’t going to win the cup. Only a handful of teams are seen as “true contenders.” Should the other teams just give up before the season starts and trade away their most productive players for futures?

your logic is hilarious flawed as usual.

You like to be stuck in mediocrity. Have the team barely make the playoffs and then get bounced in the first round. Thats the worst situation a franchise can be in

With that said. Silf is the one that commands the most return. Rakell is a scrub. Dump his ass for something before other teams catch on.

 

[dracom]

You like to be stuck in mediocrity. Have the team barely make the playoffs and then get bounced in the first round. Thats the worst situation a franchise can be in

With that said. Silf is the one that commands the most return. Rakell is a scrub. Dump his ass for something before other teams catch on.

oh yes, that's exactly what I want... unlike you who wants this team to be terrible for years just to get some high draft picks because you have zero faith in the current roster, young players, and prospects. Your solution is just keep adding high picks in hopes we get an "elite" prospect. Because as we've seen with Edmonton, Toronto, Buffalo, New Jersey, Florida, etc... the tanking to get elite prospects strategy is 100% full proof method to winning a cup.

 

[bracer028]

oh yes, that's exactly what I want... unlike you who wants this team to be terrible for years just to get some high draft picks because you have zero faith in the current roster, young players, and prospects. Your solution is just keep adding high picks in hopes we get an "elite" prospect. Because as we've seen with Edmonton, Toronto, Buffalo, New Jersey, Florida, etc... the tanking to get elite prospects strategy is 100% full proof method to winning a cup.

Better than your way of thinking. Theres absolutely 0% chance youd ever win with this current roster and doing patch jobs

At least with a blow up, i can get elite talent to sell tickets and hope the team pans out when the kids grow to about 27 years old.

 

[DavidBL]

Better than your way of thinking. Theres absolutely 0% chance youd ever win with this current roster and doing patch jobs

At least with a blow up, i can get elite talent to sell tickets and hope the team pans out when the kids grow to about 27 years old.

Tell that to Vancouver....

 

[bracer028]

Tell that to Vancouver....

You guys always point to edmonton, but you need to realize that our CURRENT roster isnt going to cut it

 

[DavidBL]

You guys always point to edmonton, but you need to realize that our CURRENT roster isn't going to cut it

You're right. If we don't see growth out of the kids we'll look a lot like last year though I do think we'll be better with some of the roster changes we've made. There is more experience and maturity on the back end which should help consistency. We just need the whole team pulling in the same direction.

 

[The Midnight Burrito]

You guys always point to edmonton, but you need to realize that our CURRENT roster isnt going to cut it

Well he said Vancouver, but anyway Edmonton is a good example of what happens when you give in to your anxiety and do the peepee dance with your roster instead of taking your time to evaluate your stable and see how your brand new coach is working out.

Knowing that your current roster isn't working out doesn't mean let's just spin the wheel of randomness and see what the next one looks like. And tanking doesn't get you closer to contending, it just gets you closer to a high draft pick. You're aiming at the wrong June prize.

 

[Static]

The team needs to see which kids' arrows are pointing up and who isn't developing before making major moves. It's time to see production.

 

[Hockey Duckie]

This team is not going to win a cup. I guarantee it. If you arent going after the cup, you are doing it wrong

This instant gratification lacks scope, at it always does.

Under GM Murray, who was thrust into the Ducks' GM role in Nov 2008 after Burke decided to step down, the Ducks have been a playoff team eight out of the 12 seasons. In the past eight years, Anaheim has missed the playoffs for two consecutive years (I point to mass injuries as a big factor to that). The prior six consecutive years were playoff years, Anaheim won five consecutive Pacific division titles. With good drafting, Murray traded for C Kesler and F Eaves, both top-6 forwards, to extend the Ducks playoff run. In 2018-19 season, Kesler was playing injured to simply make it to 1,000 games, Perry was a ghost of himself for 31 games, and Eaves' mysterious health ailment played only 6 games. That's three top-6 players where their talents fell off a cliff due to injuries. In 2019-20, the talent depth on the blue line was exposed to be thin as mass injuries hit the blue line, taking down Manson, Lindholm, and Fowler. The youth movement on the backend with Larsson and Guhle proved to be not ready for top-4 play, exacerbating the loss of offensive talents in Kesler and Eaves being on LTIR and buying out Perry.

You're panicking now, believing GM Murray hasn't been thinking of how to direct the Ducks back into playoff contention. Let's review some moves.

2016: Two first round draft picks in F Jones (24th) and C Steel (30th)
2019: Two first round draft picks in C Zegras (9th) and LW Tracey (29th)
2020: Two first round draft picks in D Drysdale (6th) and RW Perrault (27th)​

Teams are awarded one pick per round. In those three drafts listed above, GM Murray had trades to acquire a second first round pick. This implies he has been trying to stock the organization with 1st round talents and improving the chances of finding NHL products.

After last season, C Zegras was ranked #1 prospect by several hockey media publications. This would imply Zegras might be an elite talent. In this past draft, D Drysdale is receiving a lot of love as a projected 1D (granted this might be inflated due to the Canadian media love).

Elite and potential elite talent in the Anaheim organization

F: Zegras (potential)
D: Drysdale (potential)
G: Gibson, Dostal (potential, 3rd round of 2018)​

Zegras is with the Ducks' pro organization today (playing in the AHL or NHL). Dostal is with the Ducks' pro organization today. Drysdale may be a year away from joining the Ducks' pro organization. All three are potential elite talent, but none are established at the NHL level today.

We can look to last year to see what happens when an elite talent doesn't have enough competent talent in front of him - Gibson has his worst NHL season, allowing a 3.00 GAA. Gibson lost Manson, Lindholm, and Fowler for long bouts last year while the team was pushing the youth movement at both forward and defense last year. The blue line injuries affected Gibby more.

Defense at start of 2019-20

Lindholm-Manson
Guhle-Fowler
Larsson-Holzer
MDZ​

We traded for Gudbranson after Manson fell to a significant injury that would take months to recover from.

Defense at start of 2020-21

Lindholm-Manson
Fowler-Shattenkirk
Djoos-Curran
Larsson/Hakanpaa​

With this defensive roster, GM Murray added improved talents with Shattenkirk and Djoos, which pushes down Larsson and Guhle. Also, Fowler remains on the left side with this set up. Fowler did well with RHD Gudbranson, who is a solid defensive defenseman. RHD Hakanpaa was signed in for the 2019-20 season and brought up late in the season when all of Lindholm, Manson, and Fowler all fell to injury simultaneously. To ensure Fowler can stay on the left side in the future (because Fowler is here until the 2025-26 season), GM Murray traded for RHD Andersson at the TDL as well as drafted RHD's Drysdale (1st), Moore (3rd), Nickl (4th).

To continue to help out G Gibby, GM Murray traded for 200-ft speedy forwards in Heinen and Milano. Outgoing were Kase and Ritchie. Kase is an amazing player, but oft too injured. Sometimes, the best ability is availability. Ritchie is good offensively, but is a slow skater. Heinen's 9-game stint with the Ducks after the TDL revealed he was very defensively sound, like another Silf on the ice. Speed with the forwards is one way GM Murray sees in not only helping his only elite product in Gibby, but also a way back to the playoffs as Murray wants 200ft forwards.

Getting rid of Silf and Manson today exposes Gibby, and Gibby is a known NHL elite product. Thus, getting rid of Silf and Manson wouldn't help future prospects either in helping to shelter or provide support. Also, on a team that is starved for goals, getting rid of Rakell (on a very friendly contract for the next two season) is counterintuitive. The addition of D Shattenkirk on the PP with Rakell may help Rakell earn more goals.

Teams can ride a hot goaltender into the playoffs and into the Stanley Cup finals. The Ducks have done it before with JS Giguere. The Stars did it last year with Khodobin. Both teams were not high scoring teams, but they were very good defensively with their hot netminders.

Trading away players today says you don't care about Gibby. If you don't care about the only known elite player the Ducks have today, then how do you go about cultivating a plan to win a cup? Zegras is here today. Dostal is here today. Drysdale maybe here next year. We are going to be adding talent to the talent we have today. We added two forwards (Heinen and Milano) and potentially three defensemen (Shattenkirk, Djoos, and Curran) to our roster. That's 50% of our blueline. We really don't know what we have today to easily commit to a fire sale because you feel we're talentless. I think Gibby feels much better with the blue line in front of him going into this year than last year.

We're in a holding pattern, though. We're waiting for our youth to grow in C Steel, RW Terry, LW Jones, LW Comtois, LHD Larsson, and LHD Guhle as they struggled last year. Zegras may carry the group up, but could still be a year away. There's D Thrun and D LaCombe with high promise in the NCAA's. The Ducks have six prospects at the WJC's. Are we looking at two different Ducks' prospect organization?

 

[MMC]

We have now completed trade deadline #3 in the selling era, and we still very much have our work cut out for us. We did not acquire any future assets this time around aside from moving up from the 6th to 5th round in 2022, and a relatively inconsequential piece in Fleury, who while I like, joins our glut of bottom pair caliber defensemen. We're looking like we're headed for our highest pick in this rebuild, but the first draft where we will only have one 1st round pick instead of two.

Overall we have yet to substantially reconstruct the core of this team, but I do expect there to be changes in the offseason at long last. I don't foresee us making many moves prior to the Expansion Draft, as every team will value their protection spots highly, but maybe at the draft we can start moving on from some of our veterans.

The roughest season of our rebuild so far with an equally disappointing deadline, though there have been some bright spots, particularly the emergence of Drysdale, Lundestrom, and Comtois at the NHL level. Will be interesting any long needed major changes to both the front office and the team's core finally come this offseason.