How do we get better moving forward? No pun intended

[Paranoid Android]

I'm sure lots of people think they are contenders then. So just loosely throwing "were were contenders" is just a matter of opinion.

Commons sense to me is that SK-Fisher-Erat-etc isn't going to take you to the promised land.

Of course it's a matter of opinion - it's a prediction. But choosing the "contenders" from a pool of only 4 teams is pretty pointless.

 

[dulzhok]

Of course it's a matter of opinion - it's a prediction. But choosing the "contenders" from a pool of only 4 teams is pretty pointless.

I'd say 5 or 6. I see no problem saying STL needs to prove itself in the playoffs. If they go to WCF/SCF (even without winning), they can be elevate to true contenders. Until then, they aren't playoff tested.

But one thing's for sure... they are going to have a ton of talent for the indefinite future.

 

[ThirdManIn]

I wasn't aware there was an official ceremony for determining contenders.

Chicago is a contender because they have proven Stanley Cup success with largely the same roster. STL will be a pretender if they flame out in early rounds.

As for 2007, our first line featuring such guys as "Buffalo won't give him 2 mil" Dumont, "Dallas doesn't want him" Arnott, "Please pick me in the expansion draft" Walker, "I have one working leg" Forsberg.

The fact that we are top 10 in scoring with SK-Fisher-Erat speaks volumes to how much Trotz stretched out talent in 2012. Being top 10 is good (top 33%) but does not elevate you into immediate hockey glory.

Contenders have winning playoff track records. The rest are wannabes until proven otherwise.

So wait. Los Angeles wasn't a contender the year they won the Cup? I mean, they had no proven track record to speak of. They were an eighth seed. A non-contender won the Cup?

As far as your comments about Dumont and Arnott go, at that time those two guys were playing very well. Buffalo was up against the cap. They had to let a lot of players go. Does it not count because other teams didn't sign them? That doesn't make any sense. Walker didn't play for us in 2007, and Forsberg was a rental at the deadline. On one leg he put up 15 points in 17 regular season games for the Preds. Not too shabby. I wouldn't be so quick to dismiss a future Hall of Famer.

 

[dulzhok]

So wait. Los Angeles wasn't a contender the year they won the Cup? I mean, they had no proven track record to speak of. They were an eighth seed. A non-contender won the Cup?

Yes a darkhorse won the cup, they were not a contender in most people's eyes.

With the above statement, you are imply that all 16 teams who make the playoffs are contenders.

 

[101st_fan]

So wait. Los Angeles wasn't a contender the year they won the Cup? I mean, they had no proven track record to speak of. They were an eighth seed. A non-contender won the Cup?

Chicago's 49 year Cup drought means that using the expressed logic to determine a contender, they couldn't have contended until after winning the Cup in the first place.

 

[theIceWookie]

Here's what I'd like to see us do going forward for our forwards in 2-3 seasons:

Sign Paul Stastny
Draft Nikolaj Ehlers

Ehlers-Stastny-Smith
Forsberg-Jarnkrok-Aberg
Salomaki-Fisher-Hornqvist
Spaling-Sissons-Watson

Be rid of Stalberg, Nystrom, Bourque, Wilson via trade or other means. This side gets younger and more talented. We need to really utilise our youth. I put Watson in ahead of Beck because I don't think Beck will transition up full-time for us, just not seeing that second level to his game and Watson can be a bottom 6 asset. Also I'm a massive fan of Aberg who has done really well in the SEL and is only improving as a sniper.

That's a nice little retool of the offense. Not sure Stastny will want to come here but maybe he prefers a market with less media exposure and a surefire number 1 spot for him.

As for Ehlers? I love him but I'd prefer a little more size in the top 6 with the pick this year. If Ritchie and Draisaitl are gone (as I expect Reinhart, Ekblad, Dal Colle and Bennett to be all gone before the Preds pick) then I'm down with Ehlers, even over Nylander.

 

[Viqsi]

Yes a darkhorse won the cup, they were not a contender in most people's eyes.

With the above statement, you are imply that all 16 teams who make the playoffs are contenders.

Because until they're eliminated, they ARE. That's what "making the playoffs" MEANS - that you're good enough to be worthy of competing for the Stanley Cup.

 

[MrJoshua]

I'd LOVE to see the Preds sign Stastny. I consider him a legitimate top-line forward. Then you still have room to let Eaves go (please) and bring up a couple of the kids that are ready to contribute on the big team. If Forsberg is ready, great. If not, let him keep developing in the minors until he puts on some size and rounds out his game. Same goes for Jarnkrok.

Smith-Stastny-Hornqvist
Forsberg-Wilson-Cullen
Stalberg-Fisher-Nystrom
Clune-Gaustad-Spaling
Bourque

Or if Jarnkrok is ready, bring him up instead of Forsberg. Or if they're both ready, slide Cullen down to the third or fourth line, sit Clune, and let Forsberg and Jarnkrok cut their teeth on the third line with Fisher mentoring them and covering their mistakes. With the above lineup you have Cullen playing the defensively-responsible role to help cover for any Forsberg gaffes, but I think if you tried to plug in two rookies next season you'd need a more proven center between them than Wilson.

But wow, that's a LOT more scoring depth just by plugging Stastny in on the top line. And for some reason I feel like I'm leaving somebody out of the lineup. Beck probably has a really good shot at pushing for playing time next year, along with Sissons. But I don't see them as guys that can push for solid top-six spots yet (although I'd love for them to prove me wrong).

 

[alexmanu]

That's a nice little retool of the offense. Not sure Stastny will want to come here but maybe he prefers a market with less media exposure and a surefire number 1 spot for him.

As for Ehlers? I love him but I'd prefer a little more size in the top 6 with the pick this year. If Ritchie and Draisaitl are gone (as I expect Reinhart, Ekblad, Dal Colle and Bennett to be all gone before the Preds pick) then I'm down with Ehlers, even over Nylander.

Imagine the speed of Ehlers and Smith on the same line though! That would be immense and impossible to defend.

 

[AintLifeGrand]

Ehlers is close to 6ft now

 

[ThirdManIn]

I would love to draft either Ehlers or Draisaitl.

 

[alexmanu]

I would love to draft either Ehlers or Draisaitl.

I like Dal Colle more than Draisaitl but not sure he'd be available for us.

 

[Mr. Canucklehead]

Gentle reminder, everyone - discuss the argument at hand, not the person making it.

 

[ThirdManIn]

I like Dal Colle more than Draisaitl but not sure he'd be available for us.

Oh for sure. There are a couple of other prospects I'd rather see Poile draft, but I don't think they will be available by the time he gets to the podium.

 

[Byrddog]

As fans we put a great amount of emotion into our estimation of players and talent. If one looks at each empirically absent of emotion as GM's do we would see what direction the team needs to go.

http://www.behindthenet.ca/projecting_to_nhl.php

This link provides the level of difficulty of the various leagues that supply players to the NHL. When you consider the experience of each player and what kind of competition they have experienced in the past. Not surprising the Russian elite league is the closest to the NHL at .83 level of difficulty compared to 1.0 of the NHL. The AHL is .44 as difficutl as the NHL and the NCAA .41 the difficulty of NHL. These numbers were derived from the last 35 years of competition.

http://www.hockeyprospectus.com/puck/article.php?articleid=180

This is the evaluation of the conversion of points from other leagues to the NHL. The telling thing is that even with development through AHL players historically only top out at 50% of there AHL production. There are exceptions of course but looking at the current roster and the players in the system it is not very encouraging. The thing is we have no potential top line talent in the system yet. FF has not played in the AHL long enough for a clear evaluation. Another year and we will know on him. Watson with his work looks to be little more than a 4th line NHL'er. Even Jarnkrok is a question but with only one season in AHL we just do not know yet. Jarnkrok and Forsberg are the real bight spots we have right now.

We should not be surprised about the current situation putting expectations on young players to outperform the historical norms. We ice far too many players that would need to exceed the expectations to have a strong club. From the compiled information 1 out of 20 players exceed the projected norms.

Just food for thought.

 

[Hockeyfever]

Watson never played in the NCAA. He played in the OHL.

 

[Byrddog]

Watson never played in the NCAA. He played in the OHL.

Ok fixed that

 

[darth5]

Those point translation charts are VERY interesting. Thanks for bringing that to our attention!

 

[triggrman]

Martin Erat
.71 ppg AHL
.64 ppg NHL

Ryan Ellis

.52 ppg AHL
.27 ppg NHL

Shea Weber

.58 ppg AHL
.56 ppg NHL

Craig Smith

.92 ppg NCAA
This season
.63 ppg NHL

Craig Smith, never scored 20 goals in the NCAA, and only once in the USHL. Has now done it in the NHL.

Patrick Hornqvist has only broke 20 goals 1 time in other league, in the NHL he’s hit that mark 3 times, including a 30 goal season.

Roman Josi, has played 74 games in the AHL scoring a total of 7 goals, he has 9 goals this season in 56 games.


J.P. Dumont

70 games in the AHL/IHL had 70 points. In 2007, he had 72 points in 80 games with the Preds.

Looking at the players a players overall ppg, in the NHL can be misleading, rookie years, positions, depth charts and end of career numbers can all effect the total ppg.

 

[Viqsi]

Martin Erat
.71 ppg AHL
.64 ppg NHL

Ryan Ellis

.52 ppg AHL
.27 ppg NHL

Shea Weber

.58 ppg AHL
.56 ppg NHL

Craig Smith

.92 ppg NCAA
This season
.63 ppg NHL

Craig Smith, never scored 20 goals in the NCAA, and only once in the USHL. Has now done it in the NHL.

Patrick Hornqvist has only broke 20 goals 1 time in other league, in the NHL he’s hit that mark 3 times, including a 30 goal season.

Roman Josi, has played 74 games in the AHL scoring a total of 7 goals, he has 9 goals this season in 56 games.


J.P. Dumont

70 games in the AHL/IHL had 70 points. In 2007, he had 72 points in 80 games with the Preds.

Looking at the players a players overall ppg, in the NHL can be misleading, rookie years, positions, depth charts and end of career numbers can all effect the total ppg.

Nice illustration.

Those sorts of charts can be useful for setting some basic expectations so long as you've got a large enough sample size of games. But folks inevitably use them to make sweeping conclusions with too-small sample sizes, so they're almost worse than useless.

 

[dulzhok]

Martin Erat
Craig Smith, never scored 20 goals in the NCAA, and only once in the USHL. Has now done it in the NHL.

These are pretty loaded stats. As one of example (of many)...You claim Craig Smith never scored 20 goals in the NCAA, but leave out that their season is 40-ish games.

I'd like to see the list of guys who put up half a point the AHL as a 22 year old (over a FULL season), and turned into an NHL Star.

 

[Byrddog]

Its swings both ways

Jordan Tootoo 05- 06 AHL .65 GPG
His best year in NHL 11- 12 .38 PPG


Darren Haydar 06-07 1.67 PPG for Wolves and a number of year at 1PPG in AHL
Never made a NHL roster long enough to have a sample size

Cal O'Reilly 2007 thru 2009 was over 1PPG AHL
2010 NHL Preds .47 PPG
2011- 12 Pens .22 PPG

Simon Gamache Over 2 PPG in the Q
02-03 1PPG AHL Wolves
04-05 !PPG AHL AD's
22 games in NHL 2 goals and 2 Asst's
I was really high on this guy at the time and wanted him to succeed.

Rich Peverley 1 PPG in AHL 06-07 07-08
442 games in NHL career .54PPG


Scottie Upshall 03-04 .77 PPG 04-05 .74 PPG

474 NHL games .45 PPG


Brandon Segal best AHL year .60 PPG
103 NHL starts .21 PPG

Mike Santorelli over 1 PPG 08-09 09-10
257 NHL games .33 PPG


There must be a benchmark to evaluate players. Cherry picking players who are the 1 in 20 just does not dismiss the average that from AHL to NHL a player is only as .50 effective, There are exceptions both up and down. The fact is there is a drop in more players than there are increases. To that end Wilson is above the the average from the NCAA but below the average from the AHL. But this tool is a good rule of thumb to see where players and teams are actually at. If a team is composed with players that are 40 or less point players on the top lines which is where we are it is difficult to compete.

 

[dulzhok]

Scoring the AHL is never going to directly equate to scoring the NHL. Any correlation formula will never work.

Not scoring much in the AHL is a pretty good sign they aren't going to tear up the NHL though.

 

[Byrddog]

Scoring the AHL is never going to directly equate to scoring the NHL. Any correlation formula will never work.

Not scoring much in the AHL is a pretty good sign they aren't going to tear up the NHL though.

Then how do you suggest GM's evaluate it then. Wet there finger stick it in the air? Or on emotions like most fans do?

Come to think of it I think DP may be using the wet finger method.

 

[dulzhok]

Then how do you suggest GM's evaluate it then..

By subjectively evaluating talent and how their skills, work ethic, personality and other factors will translate to the NHL. It's what they get paid to do and have huge scouting staffs to do as well. If there was some magical statistical formula, then there'd be no need for scouts and drafts would be done by a computer print out.