How did Ryan O'Reilly fall to the 2nd round?

[Gobo]

Could end up a Patrice Bergeron-like player

 

[Granlund2Pulkkinen*]

Could end up a Patrice Bergeron-like player

You're just saying that because he's the last player to make his team the season after being drafted in the second round

 

[Gobo]

You're just saying that because he's the last player to make his team the season after being drafted in the second round

I didn't know that actually but thanks. Both good two way players overshadowed by a better centre, capable of putting up 60~ points. Also, I can see RoR being a playoff performer

 

[WarriorofTime]

People seem to have this idea that the second round is for kids who are absolute garbage and everyone taken in the second round is projected to be a career AHLer. A lot of times it's not like teams don't like a player just that everyone has one guy that they want over him. In O'Reilly's case, he was probably seen more as a safe pick who would be a solid bottom sixer with the potential to play top six but without a whole lot of offensive upside (Junior #s weren't that great for a top prospect). I bet a lot of teams liked him but the teams picking towards the end of the first round probably had someone else on their board that they thought had high sleeper potential.

 

[PeterTheGreat]

Could end up a Patrice Bergeron-like player

I agree. Their playing styles are very similar.

 

[Ivan13]

No, I'm not "COMAPIRING" Reilly, to a 1st draft pick. Any 18 year old that makes a NHL club comes to a surprise to anyone.

Yep, now start talking about the irrelevant.

Radar? Jesus, where do people come up with these nicknames. Radar? Seriously? Cheesiest nickname I've heard in the NHL. One second thought, it's like a name for a dog. Thanks, If i ever get a dog, I'll name it Radar.

So you didn't watch the best sitcom of all time, or even read the book on which it's based upon? I feel sorry for you.

 

[Lonewolfe2015]

As a 1st round draft pick, I don't care about his defense game. You pick for offensive upside. Defense can be taught.

Ryan O'Reilly was expected to be an offensive center based on his time spent in juniors with a very steady 2-way game.

Whether the Avs drafted him for that or not, every scout expected his footspeed to be his limiting factor in the NHL but his intelligence and maturity were going to be his greatest weapons. His shot was said to be great for his age iirc.

When he came to camp he was placed on the 3rd line because let's face it, Staz was our #1 and Duchy was the more highly touted pick and flashier.

He was beating Duchy for awhile until Sacco decided he needed a shutdown center. Much the same that happened with Brandon Sutter, O'Reilly began focusing on his defensive game and two years later the guy is a force on faceoffs, and I'd be really curious to see just how many players can outmuscle him downlow because he is upper echelon and a broderline star at stickwork in regards to controlling the play through takeaways, positioning and transtioning the Avs from defense to offense.

This is a player that will be a Selke candidate once his offense catches up with his defense, which it will.

 

[Harry Kakalovich]

His strengths were his hockey sense, work ethic, and character. His flaws were his foot speed and his shot. He wasn't a goal scorer in junior. Therefore he slipped because some scouts didn't feel his offensive game would translate, and that he would top out as a good character player. But he was snapped up pretty early in the second, so I am not even sure he slid enough to call it slipping.

Happens a lot that guys who are solid players that lack a tool or two fall on draft day to more toolsy type of players. Sometimes this is a mistake, but there are also times players have everything they need between the ears but are some tools short and they never make it. ROR looks like a good one.

 

[S E P H]

Other question is why didn't the scouts think his hard work and dedication wouldn't make him improve in his skating and shot because he has a fantastic shot now and is a above-average skater. Also is #2 in faceoffs in the NHL.

 

[coo1beans]

hindsight is 20/20..... i could name your 20 players from every single draft that should have been higher... as could anyone else

 

[smitty10]

No, I'm not "COMAPIRING" Reilly, to a 1st draft pick. Any 18 year old that makes a NHL club comes to a surprise to anyone.

Yep, now start talking about the irrelevant.

Radar? Jesus, where do people come up with these nicknames. Radar? Seriously? Cheesiest nickname I've heard in the NHL. One second thought, it's like a name for a dog. Thanks, If i ever get a dog, I'll name it Radar.

I'm guessing you never saw that show MASH? It was kinda big for a while..

 

[TheStranger]

I'm guessing you never saw that show MASH? It was kinda big for a while..

Kind of the BIGGEST.

 

[Harry Kakalovich]

Other question is why didn't the scouts think his hard work and dedication wouldn't make him improve in his skating and shot because he has a fantastic shot now and is a above-average skater. Also is #2 in faceoffs in the NHL.

Well, Avs scouts obviously did, which is why they picked him so high, and he's really worked out well.

 

[c4rcy]

You know the difference between O'Reilly and a #1 pick is 3 spots right? lol

 

[S E P H]

You know the difference between O'Reilly and a #1 pick is 3 spots right? lol

If you actually read the thread I noted that he should've gone in the 20s from the 1st round. Much higher than your 3 spots says.

 

[Harry Kakalovich]

If you actually read the thread I noted that he should've gone in the 20s from the 1st round. Much higher than your 3 spots says.

Absolutely, and it is a good question to ask. The thing I've been learning from watching the draft over the years and going to a few is that every team is excited about their picks, especially in the top100 or so. Each team goes up and selects the player they think is the best out of all the ones available, for each pick. So each of the ten or so times ROR didn't get picked between 25 and 33, a team was really high on who they did pick and selected that player based on this. Chances are that these teams felt that ROR's perceived flaws limited his upside in relation to the player they picked... and while this has been shown to be somewhat erroneous, there were some pretty good players picked in those spots, too.

Meanwhile, the Avs went up and picked ROR at 33, and they felt he was the best guy there, and they likely were quite convinced that his perceived flaws would not limit his upside. So I don't really see it as a flaw in the other scouting staffs, but it was a good pick by the Avs who believed in ROR and he has proven the scouting staff correct.

The fact is there is no way to be 100% certain on this. ROR has overcome his flaws from junior, but there are also many players whose lack of foot speed, or a weak shot, will hold them back, or prevent them from playing top 6 minutes in the NHL, so it is not a wise draft policy to ignore aspects of players' games that you feel might hold them back from becoming quality NHLers. Likewise, there are big guys in the mould of Paradis or Caron who develop into really valuable players, so organizations can't eliminate potential upside from their criteria either. There's just no way to know for certain - I would say unfortunately, but that is also what makes it so interesting to follow.

 

[S E P H]

Absolutely, and it is a good question to ask. The thing I've been learning from watching the draft over the years and going to a few is that every team is excited about their picks, especially in the top100 or so. Each team goes up and selects the player they think is the best out of all the ones available, for each pick. So each of the ten or so times ROR didn't get picked between 25 and 33, a team was really high on who they did pick and selected that player based on this. Chances are that these teams felt that ROR's perceived flaws limited his upside in relation to the player they picked... and while this has been shown to be somewhat erroneous, there were some pretty good players picked in those spots, too.

Yeah this is the Bob Mackenzie theory. And this is the reason why he fell, but it shows that the scouting teams didn't do a good enough job, while the Avs had ROR in their top 15. So that means he was higher than 17-18 players that went before him.

Meanwhile, the Avs went up and picked ROR at 33, and they felt he was the best guy there, and they likely were quite convinced that his perceived flaws would not limit his upside. So I don't really see it as a flaw in the other scouting staffs, but it was a good pick by the Avs who believed in ROR and he has proven the scouting staff correct.

I totally understand your view, but I still disagree with the scouting staff as I mentioned above. I'm very happy he fell to us, but in reality he never should've been at 33rd.

Paradis or Caron

As you know am not calling any player above him a bust and I do agree these two players do have the most potential to match or go above ROR skill level.

 

[ponder]

Put up just decent numbers in the OHL, wasn't perceived as having a crazy high upside, solidly built but average height, not the greatest speed, not hard to see why people saw him as a lower upside guy, and it's not like 33rd overall is particularly low. He's a good player and when it's all said and done I think he'll be seen as a very good pick for the Avs, but it's not like he fell crazy far or had ridiculous superstar talent. Drafting is an inexact science.

 

[ponder]

Paradis or Caron

As you know am not calling any player above him a bust and I do agree these two players do have the most potential to match or go above ROR skill level.

Interesting, I look at these guys as 2 of the weakest prospects to go at the end of the 1st in 2009. Of the last 8 picks in the 1st round (23-30) I'd peg Paradis and Olsen as the weakest, with Caron arguably the 3rd weakest. I like most of the other guys picked in that range though:
- Marcus Johansson (24th) is already a pretty decent 2nd line C with plenty more upside
- Tim Erixon (23rd) could become quite a good NHL dman, a 2nd pairing or even top pairing dman
- Kyle Palmieri (26th) and Carter Ashton (29th) both have top 6 upside IMO
- Not as high on Simon Despres (30th) as some people are, but he's got very good size and played plenty of good hockey for the Sea Dogs

 

[Nalens Oga]

I just wanna clear one thing up in this thread. Ryan O'Reilly has not shown a good shot so far. Or at least not an accurate one, he's good at making space for himself but he usually shoots at the chest protector. Better as a playmaker and checker than at shooting for sure.

It's more about situation imo, I bet if Caron for example was drafted 33rd by Colorado instead of O'Reilly then this thread would be about Caron.

 

[Harry Kakalovich]

I just wanna clear one thing up in this thread. Ryan O'Reilly has not shown a good shot so far. Or at least not an accurate one, he's good at making space for himself but he usually shoots at the chest protector. Better as a playmaker and checker than at shooting for sure.

Thanks for this ... I remember him at the U18s in his draft year being a really solid player, but that his shot was very ... well you pegged it - a lot of wrist shots to the chest and pads. But not being someone who watches many Avs games - I found myself starting to believe that his shot had improved by leaps and bounds.

 

[VLoo]

So you didn't watch the best sitcom of all time, or even read the book on which it's based upon? I feel sorry for you.

My Dad used to watch all the time but I was a little too young to really pay too much attention. I'm an Avs fan and on the Avs board regularly and I just assumed we called him Radar because Ryan O'Reilly was a palindrome like Radar. But then again, that could be where Radar in MASH got his nickname as well.

 

[Stephen]

Completely different circumstances. This was in 1998 and 1999 respectively, IIRC; scouting nowadays is significantly more broad and in-depth than it was back then. There were a ton of talented Russian players who went unnoticed due to a lack of attention, and, to be honest, a period in the NHL where big, strong North Americans were the "phase".

Disagree. The draft and scouting is as much a crapshoot as it always was, you just think all the recent picks are working out because the kids haven't gone rotten yet and the late round gems have yet to emerge.

 

[S E P H]

I just wanna clear one thing up in this thread. Ryan O'Reilly has not shown a good shot so far. Or at least not an accurate one, he's good at making space for himself but he usually shoots at the chest protector. Better as a playmaker and checker than at shooting for sure.

It's more about situation imo, I bet if Caron for example was drafted 33rd by Colorado instead of O'Reilly then this thread would be about Caron.

I disagree. His shot is below-average with accuracy, but power-it's very good.

 

[S E P H]

Interesting, I look at these guys as 2 of the weakest prospects to go at the end of the 1st in 2009. Of the last 8 picks in the 1st round (23-30) I'd peg Paradis and Olsen as the weakest, with Caron arguably the 3rd weakest. I like most of the other guys picked in that range though:
- Marcus Johansson (24th) is already a pretty decent 2nd line C with plenty more upside
- Tim Erixon (23rd) could become quite a good NHL dman, a 2nd pairing or even top pairing dman
- Kyle Palmieri (26th) and Carter Ashton (29th) both have top 6 upside IMO
- Not as high on Simon Despres (30th) as some people are, but he's got very good size and played plenty of good hockey for the Sea Dogs

From the opening posts these are the players I think ROR is better than,

Jordan Caron
Kyle Palmieri
Philippe Paradis
Dylan Olsen
Mikko Koskinen
Landon Ferraro

Every player you listed above besides Palmieri, are/going to be better than ROR. IMO.