How did Brayden Point fall to the 3rd round in the 2014 draft?

[FerrisRox]

I really hate the NHL's obsession with size. If a player is talented enough to make it, he WILL make it.

This is categorically false. There is a mountain of evidence of supremely skilled guys who are too small to compete affectively in the National Hockey League. Several teams roll the dice on smaller players in the late rounds and a precious few of them make it all the way to the NHL and even fewer have any kind of success when they get there.

If what you were saying was true, there were be plenty of under-sized guys in the NHL. The AHL and ECHL has several high end smaller players that couldn't make the step. Many of those guys were drafted, albeit later on in the draft, but they didn't make it.

Guys like Point are the exception, not the rule.

 

[rent free]

I feel like TB has drawn the blueprint for this. They've had so much success drafting small, skilled players--along with skilled players other teams overlooked for a variety of reasons (Russian, for instance)--and they're now reaping the rewards, and other teams seem to be following suit.

I think TB will probably have a tougher time finding gems in the draft from here on out, because the key to their drafting success, a lot of times, seemed to be ignoring perceived negatives. It blew up in their face a couple of times too (DeAngelo, mainly, but probably Drouin too, with attitude concerns).

They are the model organization for drafting

 

[Elias Pettersson]

This is categorically false. There is a mountain of evidence of supremely skilled guys who are too small to compete affectively in the National Hockey League. Several teams roll the dice on smaller players in the late rounds and a precious few of them make it all the way to the NHL and even fewer have any kind of success when they get there.

If what you were saying was true, there were be plenty of under-sized guys in the NHL. The AHL and ECHL has several high end smaller players that couldn't make the step. Many of those guys were drafted, albeit later on in the draft, but they didn't make it.

Guys like Point are the exception, not the rule.

That applies to ANY player in the late rounds... regardless of size.

 

[Skinnyjimmy08]

They are the model organization for drafting

Yup...its funny though cause they dont really do THAT well with their 1st round picks. Obviously Stammer, Hedman and Vasi were unreal and a great foundation but when you look at their draft history its the 2nds and later overage FA signings that they excell at (obviously Drouin got them Sergachev whiched worked out unbelievable)

 

[rent free]

Yup...its funny though cause they dont really do THAT well with their 1st round picks. Obviously Stammer, Hedman and Vasi were unreal and a great foundation but when you look at their draft history its the 2nds and later overage FA signings that they excell at (obviously Drouin got them Sergachev whiched worked out unbelievable)

that the ironic part, but nothings perfect

 

[Canada4Gold]

It was probably because he was small, but lets not pretend that Brayden Point showed in 2013/14 that he was going to be the player he is today. The height thing and scouting bias is almost certainly partially to blame, but development is likely by far the biggest factor.

Look at Dmytro Timashov, drafted in the 5th round in 2015. His draft year he put up 90 points in 66 games in the Q(which people will argue is weaker and higher scoring, but the top scorers on average scored less in the Q in 2015 than the WHL in 14), 3 years later he's putting up just over 0.5 PPG in the AHL. He's not a nobody just yet, but he's not special and perhaps showing why he dropped to the 5th round.

Some of them do work out, and perhaps ever at a higher rate than the average guy picked in their areas. But lets not throw too many rocks at scouts in hindsight, lots of them miss as well.

 

[FerrisRox]

That applies to ANY player in the late rounds... regardless of size.

You've done an outstanding job of pointing something out that is entirely irrelevant to the original point that was being made.

 

[MacDonald4MVP]

He was very flawed prospect. Lacked size and gritensity!

 

[DFC]

He always seemed to overachieve at the WJC, which was a good sign.

As a TB fan, you're always comfortable when he has the puck. He just rarely, if ever, makes mistakes. Mature way, way, way beyond his years. And his physical tools are still improving. The best is yet to come.

Nobody had a doubt he'd be a playoff performer. The kid has Winner written all over him.

 

[RandV]

But I think that goes back to the same question of bias. Are those guys getting the opportunities because of their size/draft position (which is also affected by size)?

I do think size can be a significant negative factor for the really small guys, and perhaps it's fair to shy away from them, but bigger guys still tend to be overvalued at the same time.

Vancouver in the past two decades has had mini younger brother versions of star players: Steve Kariya and Jordan Subban. Subban was never really given a shot by the new management that didn't draft him, though to be fair it's much harder for a small dman than forward. But Kariya got plenty of opportunity, often dominating in pre-season, but just couldn't cut it against NHL competition.

So it could go either way, but it really is tough for players that small to succeed. But with the success of guys like Gaudreau and now Point you're certainly seeing more teams take chances on them, and they'll certainly be given the opportunity to succeed. Canucks amateur scouts have certainly learned, last draft we took 5'6" Petrus Palmu in the 6th round.

 

[Turin]

He’s an ugly mofo.

 

[FinnLightning26]

Yzerman pretty much drafted himself with that pick. Point is very similar to what Yzerman was. Great offensive player who's defensively aware as has been showed in these playoffs.

 

[The Macho King]

Yup...its funny though cause they dont really do THAT well with their 1st round picks. Obviously Stammer, Hedman and Vasi were unreal and a great foundation but when you look at their draft history its the 2nds and later overage FA signings that they excell at (obviously Drouin got them Sergachev whiched worked out unbelievable)

Our first rounds suck. Namestnikov is an NHLer, and Howden was a big part of bringing in McDonagh, but outside of Vasi, Yzerman has not drafted an impact player in the first round.

However, he's not so stubborn when they're not working out. He'll cut bait. He traded DeAngelo for the pick that turned into Hajek (also traded now), and traded Drouin for Sergachev, and traded Connolly for two seconds.

 

[topshelf15]

Lots of great players fall,his size was the likely reason....For us in Ottawa it was Stone,s skating,that had him go in the 5th round

 

[CupInSIX]

Going from projected early 2nd round to the 3rd isn't falling IMO.

Credit the Lighting org for allowing him to become the great player he is.

 

[Captain Mountain]

 

[blankall]

The issue with small players is that if their skills don't translate into top 6 production, they have limited roles in the NHL. They can be energy guys or point producers. So the other half of roles for forwards are off limits.

Point is about the same size as Kane, just not as good. So if Point doesn't become a legit top 6, he's probably a wasted pick.

 

[sparxx87]

He always seemed to overachieve at the WJC, which was a good sign.

As a TB fan, you're always comfortable when he has the puck. He just rarely, if ever, makes mistakes. Mature way, way, way beyond his years. And his physical tools are still improving. The best is yet to come.

Nobody had a doubt he'd be a playoff performer. The kid has Winner written all over him.

For me the WJC was the first I saw him but you could tell he would be a player. He obviously has the physical tools/skills, but the common theme with him and every undersized NHL’er is their competitiveness. When you pair a high motor and elite hockey iq with those tools you’ve got a pretty special player.

Most surprising is that everyone passed on him twice... It’s almost unbelievable looking at some of the players picked ahead of him. Full credit to Yzerman and pretty poor work by everyone else. Admittedly I only ever watched him with Canada pre-NHL but it seemed pretty obvious he was among the elite of the elite in his age group.

With smaller players you just wonder about durability. He’s got some grit to his game and plays big, but that can often be hard on the body so hopefully he can stay healthy.

...but he’s a star. I’m glad to see he’s getting recognized after flying under the radar with Kucherov/Stamkos. His importance to the team has been largely understated so it’s nice to see him shine when the spotlight is on.

 

[Laineux]

Best center in Tampa Bay that's for sure.

 

[THall4]

As everyone has stated already in here...size.

He was drafted n a time where everyone wanted a 6'3 220lbs beast ...Stevie didn't care/has never cared about POB or size etc...

 

[Filthy Dangles]

Is Point vs Barzal a dicussion? Or is Mat Barzal superior and always will be?

 

[Vachon23]

can't believe we take Brett Lernout before him ...

 

[Laineux]

Is Point vs Barzal a dicussion? Or is Mat Barzal superior and always will be?

Yeah. I don't see much separating Point from the likes of Eichel, Matthews and Barkov in all honesty. 22 year old outplays the Bergeron line in playoffs. Ridiculous.

 

[Trap Jesus]

Yeah. I don't see much separating Point from the likes of Eichel, Matthews and Barkov in all honesty. 22 year old outplays the Bergeron line in playoffs. Ridiculous.

That's not what happened outside of Game 2, where the Point line outscored them 2-1, out-possessed them 12-10 for Corsi, and outchanced them 4-2 for high danger chances. That line did keep the Bergeron line to low-event hockey in games 3-5, but the Bergeron line still got the better of the chances and possession. Both lines didn't factor in on any goals vs. one another after Game 2. Game 1 was the one where the Point line was dominated. Overall you're looking at this for Point vs. Bergeron:

Goals: 2-4
Corsi: 41-53
High Danger Chances: 5-7

Point was still the best Tampa player for sure, but had most of his success vs. the Krejci line.

 

[VoluntaryDom]

Yeah. I don't see much separating Point from the likes of Eichel, Matthews and Barkov in all honesty. 22 year old outplays the Bergeron line in playoffs. Ridiculous.

I have it like this for now:

Matthews/Barkov
Barzal
Point/Eichel
Draisaitl