How did Brayden Point fall to the 3rd round in the 2014 draft?

[Filthy Dangles]

The numbers were there. He had 91 points in his WHL draft year which led the team, next highest scorers on the team were 55, 55 and 51 by a bunch of over-agers.

Of the 12 mocks/rankings listed here, only 3 had him as a top 30 pick.
2014 NHL Draft Prospect Rankings

Don't recall any serious injury or off-ice issues so what was it? Did scouts just miss with the belief that he likely couldn't translate in the NHL?

Click to read more...

 

[Atomos2]

The numbers were there. He had 91 points in his WHL draft year which led the team, next highest scorers on the team were 55, 55 and 51 by a bunch of over-agers.

Of the 12 mocks/rankings listed here, only 3 had him as a top 30 pick.
2014 NHL Draft Prospect Rankings

Don't recall any serious injury or off-ice issues so what was it? Did scouts just miss with the belief he couldn't translate to the NHL?

Probably size issue

 

[HugginThePost]

Probably size issue

He’s one of my nephews best friends. He’s out at the lake every summer.

The dude is small. Like really small.

But you don’t need to be big in today’s NHL, just good. And good he is.

 

[Mikeaveli]

I was amazed at the time and still am. I wanted SY to pick him with our 35th overall pick (ended up being Masin) and was ecstatic when we got him at 79.

As for why, size.

 

[Elias Pettersson]

I really hate the NHL's obsession with size. If a player is talented enough to make it, he WILL make it.
Thist stupid meat and potatoes bias needs to stop. It always results in some bum being picked too high and some skilled guy slipping through and falling.

 

[Daximus]

Size. As a Warrior fan who is at the rink every single game. We knew he was probably the best forward we've ever had. At least since Fleury. The entire fan base had no idea how he fell so low.

Another factor may be that Moose Jaw was f***ing terrible during most of his time here and in his draft year and that likely led to him being heavily underscouted.

Interesting fact is he was higher then any other forward that year in percentage of teams goals he was a part of. Played huge minutes, often double shifting and was a PP and PK staple.

 

[Sol]

Like every thread that asks the same questions about different good players... It happens. Nothing more nothing less. -_-. Scouts aren't infallible.

 

[Deuce Awesome]

I really hate the NHL's obsession with size. If a player is talented enough to make it, he WILL make it.
Thist stupid meat and potatoes bias needs to stop. It always results in some bum being picked too high and some skilled guy slipping through and falling.

I think if you were to compare the success rates of short dudes vs tall dudes you would get your answer. There isn't some conspiracy against small guys they just don't have the same chance of making it as guys that are 6'4. Doesn't mean tall guys are a lock either, but size is something that can't be taught.

 

[kabidjan18]

He is listed at 5'11", and you can cast your consternations about that figure, but that's the height of Sidney Crosby.

Furthermore, shorter guys were selected earlier in that exact draft, like Kevin Fiala at 10th and Robby Fabbri at 21st. Other players who are his height were also drafted, like Tony DeAngelo, a Dman none the less, 19th. Jayce Hawryluk and Nicolas Aube Kubel in the 2nd.

I get it. The purpose of this thread is to reiterate the grand narrative. So we can reiterate the grand narrative. But there's also a small chance we could take into account the nuances of the situation, and come up with a more developed hypothesis.

 

[oooooooooohCanada]

He is listed at 5'11", and you can cast your consternations about that figure, but that's the height of Sidney Crosby.

Furthermore, shorter guys were selected earlier in that exact draft, like Kevin Fiala at 10th and Robby Fabbri at 21st. Other players who are his height were also drafted, like Tony DeAngelo, a Dman none the less, 19th. Jayce Hawryluk and Nicolas Aube Kubel in the 2nd.

I get it. The purpose of this thread is to reiterate the grand narrative. So we can reiterate the grand narrative. But there's also a small chance we could take into account the nuances of the situation, and come up with a more developed hypothesis.

He's maybe 5'11" with skates on lol. The NHL website has him at 5'10" 166lbs. He's small.

 

[Daximus]

He is listed at 5'11", and you can cast your consternations about that figure, but that's the height of Sidney Crosby.

Furthermore, shorter guys were selected earlier in that exact draft, like Kevin Fiala at 10th and Robby Fabbri at 21st. Other players who are his height were also drafted, like Tony DeAngelo, a Dman none the less, 19th. Jayce Hawryluk and Nicolas Aube Kubel in the 2nd.

I get it. The purpose of this thread is to reiterate the grand narrative. So we can reiterate the grand narrative. But there's also a small chance we could take into account the nuances of the situation, and come up with a more developed hypothesis.

I'm 5'11 and he wasn't much shorter than me when I met him at a signing. He was listed at 5'9 his draft year which was pretty bang on IMO.

Size may or may not have played a factor but I think the biggest thing was he was just under scouted plain and simple. The Bolts and Warriors have a bit of a relationship over the last few years. With some insiders telling me that that Yzerman gives Miller advice all the time. Such as telling them to draft Oleg Sosunov at the import draft and the Warriors really peddling Brett Howden to the Bolts. There seems to be a bit of a relationship between the two GM's and I think Tampa scouting Reilly saw Point and kept tabs on him while others overlooked him.

 

[kabidjan18]

He's maybe 5'11" with skates on lol. The NHL website has him at 5'10" 166lbs. He's small.

Alright. Let's go with that figure. The argument hardly changes.

 

[kabidjan18]

Size may or may not have played a factor but I think the biggest thing was he was just under scouted plain and simple. The Bolts and Warriors have a bit of a relationship over the last few years. With some insiders telling me that that Yzerman gives Miller advice all the time. Such as telling them to draft Oleg Sosunov at the import draft and the Warriors really peddling Brett Howden to the Bolts. There seems to be a bit of a relationship between the two GM's and I think Tampa scouting Reilly saw Point and kept tabs on him while others overlooked him.

All three decisions look good so far.

 

[Daximus]

All three decisions look good so far.

I agree and I'm hoping that relationship continues as Yzerman is a great mentor for Millar.

 

[oooooooooohCanada]

Alright. Let's go with that figure. The argument hardly changes.

How does it not? He's small. Small skilled players are drafted low all the time. That's slowly changing but it's a fact. Almost every thread that goes "why was so and so drafted so late?" ends up with "he was considered too small".

Point is 40 lbs lighter than Crosby.

 

[kabidjan18]

How does it not? He's small. Small skilled players are drafted low all the time. That's slowly changing but it's a fact.

Big players are also drafted low all the time too. Presumably, they are drafted low because they are considered to be worse than some other big player.

Small players were drafted above Point, in the first round even. Why were they drafted above Point? There's obviously significantly more to this that your grand narrative would cover. Did size play some part? I'm sure. But there's obviously significant ground that your narrative doesn't cover. So we can either just cling to your narrative and yell "the narrative! the narrative!" Or we can come up with a hypothesis that actually models why Point was drafted too low, and not just a prototypical small prospect for whom there is almost an inevitable no true scotsman fallacy lurking.

The notion that we changed his height estimate one inch and that threw my argument into a tailspin is ludicrous.

Almost every thread that goes "why was so and so drafted so late?" ends up with "he was considered too small".

Ah yes, because some grand narratives are widely accepted, that determines their truth value.

 

[Skinnyjimmy08]

Size at the time unfortunaly... Same reason he was 14th overall in WHL draft and not a top 3 pick.. He shoulda been but wasnt due to his size... But then he terrorized WHL and will terrorize the NHL very very soon

 

[Trap Jesus]

Size or skating is usually the reason. Obviously with Point, it was size.

 

[Mickey Marner]

It's hard to judge whether a player has a high hockey iq when you only get to watch them a handful of times. So, when a player is missing something that can't be taught easily, or at all, -like size- a lot of teams will just assume he's a Jr. Star who's game won't translate.

 

[dechire]

Well I looked at the pre-draft thread and in a completely shocking turn of events most people were knocking him for his size and nothing else.

To quote from that thread: "To be playable at 5'10" and in the ~170 range, you need Nic Petan skill. In my opinion, Point does not have Petan's skill, but he could surprise me this year." Player prediction is not an exact science. X player might be viewed as talented enough to overcome a skating/size/whatever issue and gets drafted higher and fails maybe due to that issue or something else entirely. Y player isn't viewed as being able to overcome a perceived flaw and gets drafted lower and then excels and makes everyone look stupid for missing them.

 

[Satan]

For the most part, NHL scouts and GMs are not good at doing their job.

 

[McRpro]

There's a plethora of supremely skilled, small players that couldn't make it in the NHL. Point is the exception, not the rule.

 

[SI90]

f***ing Yzerman doesn’t miss

 

[Regal]

I think if you were to compare the success rates of short dudes vs tall dudes you would get your answer. There isn't some conspiracy against small guys they just don't have the same chance of making it as guys that are 6'4. Doesn't mean tall guys are a lock either, but size is something that can't be taught.

But I think that goes back to the same question of bias. Are those guys getting the opportunities because of their size/draft position (which is also affected by size)?

I do think size can be a significant negative factor for the really small guys, and perhaps it's fair to shy away from them, but bigger guys still tend to be overvalued at the same time.

 

[Ruok]

I think a lot of people directly correlate height with being size, which makes sense because it is definitely part of the picture.

But not all 5'10" are equal. There is a big difference between someone 5 10 broad shoulder 190 lbs and someone who is 5 10 lanky 140 lbs. Point was the 2nd one which is why size was a concern.