How can Matthews put himself in the convo with McDavid as “Best young player”?

[Michel Beauchamp]

You dont understand how that time off could hurt a player? Have you ever played a sport at even a slightly competitive level?

You can pass it off all you like, but doesn't make you right.

The good old "Have you played the game ?" post.

A classic.

 

[Michel Beauchamp]

But McDavid is on the Oilers (Chiarelli trading away MVP Taylor Hall and trading for Milan Lucic ) and Matthews is on the Leafs who just signed the biggest UFA in ten years.
It's easy to see which team is trending up and which is trending down.

The good old "If the player can't compete, change the playing field" strategy.

Another classic...

 

[Michel Beauchamp]

The point that the poster made about the Calder is meaningless. McDavid was the clear favorite for that trophy until he broke his collar bone. As far as awards go, the Calder is a pretty low end one. Crosby didn't win it either. Lots of elite players don't win it. It's not a top tier award, like the Hart. It's an award of opportunity.

Perfectly right.

Shades of Britt Selby (I know, I know, I'm showing my age), Sergei Samsonov, Evgeni Nabokov, Andrew Raycroft, Steve Mason...

 

[Michel Beauchamp]

We have a player who has proven to be a 40 goal scorer, above ppg for the season in question, proven playoff contributor from the previous year who then comes in and has a sub par performance which goes against everything else he has shown in his short career. The only thing that changed was his 20 games missed.


It's pretty clear you are grasping here, not me.

I'll out-zeke you.

Production pre-injury: 53gp - 23g - 22a - 45p (0.43 g/gp - 0.42 a/gp - 0.85 p/gp)
Production post-injury: 9gp - 6g - 7a - 13p (0.67 g/gp - 0.68 a/gp - 1.44 p/gp)

Sure looks like someone is suffering the lingering effects of a long lay-off, n'est-ce pas ?

I wonder who is grasping ?

 

[Skolman]

Stay healthy and have Babock play like him other centres. Eichel played over 2 minutes more per game last season.

That still wouldn't matter, still not close

 

[Kamiccolo]

You realize the trophies listed were the Art Ross, the Lindsay, the Rocket, and, apparently, "most other trophies in the league" right?

The only trophy on that list that he can really be in the discussion for, at this point, is the Rocket... and that really comes down to how someone like Ovechkin. More often than not, it's his to lose. For the Art Ross, or the Lindsay, well, he's not even an honorable mention. Not right now.

And I won't ask about the "most other trophies" part.

The point that the poster made about the Calder is meaningless. McDavid was the clear favorite for that trophy until he broke his collar bone. As far as awards go, the Calder is a pretty low end one. Crosby didn't win it either. Lots of elite players don't win it. It's not a top tier award, like the Hart. It's an award of opportunity, and if you go back to the 2004 lockout until now, few of the players who won it would be considered elite. McDavid has won awards that will get you into the HHOF. The Calder? Barely moves the needle.

Well we will just have to see. I think this season Matthews is going to win some hardware so let's just wait and revisit this in like 6-8 months. Right now it's just opinions. After a healthy season we will know which way he is trending.

 

[Kamiccolo]

I'll out-zeke you.

Production pre-injury: 53gp - 23g - 22a - 45p (0.43 g/gp - 0.42 a/gp - 0.85 p/gp)
Production post-injury: 9gp - 6g - 7a - 13p (0.67 g/gp - 0.68 a/gp - 1.44 p/gp)

Sure looks like someone is suffering the lingering effects of a long lay-off, n'est-ce pas ?

I wonder who is grasping ?

You realize he had two injuries, right? He was out after hurting his back, and played injured until he hurt his shoulder, and then came back and didn't look 100%. Despite that he was still, as you pointed out, putting up points. He just wasn't taking over games like he normally does.

 

[TheAngryHank]

Score more points than everyone else for a few seasons is a start.

 

[Anglesmith]

What conversation? It's not a topic with multiple right answers.

 

[Skinnyjimmy08]

He isnt even close. Matthews is an unreal player but if he was on an awful team where the game plan was to just give him the puck and go do everything, there is no chance he could do what McDavid does. IMO McDavid is on a whole other planet than Matthews

 

[PittsburghPens8771]

This has to be the most idiotic post in the history of hockey forums.

Congrats?

It’s not idiotic. Toews didn’t lead his team to cups they were just stacked. The leafs have a significantly better team than the Oilers.

What’s going to end up happening is, (if) the leafs win the cup people will begin overrating Matthews like they did Toews.

Did I make it clear enough for you guys to understand?

 

[authentic]

If he can't become as good of a playmaker, I would think consistent 50+ goal, 90 + point seasons would put him in conversation.

That's assuming McDavid also doesn't improve his output, which I think he will do anyway, so I am not sure if he could catch him. It's possible, but we shall see how things turn out.

That wouldn't make him equal though. He is fully capable of that but I don't see around 110 points.

 

[LeafFever]

He isnt even close. Matthews is an unreal player but if he was on an awful team where the game plan was to just give him the puck and go do everything, there is no chance he could do what McDavid does. IMO McDavid is on a whole other planet than Matthews

I do think he'd score a heck ofa lot more than he does. Have you seen the crappy TOI/PP time he gets and his 5 on 5 stats?

 

[authentic]

I'll out-zeke you.

Production pre-injury: 53gp - 23g - 22a - 45p (0.43 g/gp - 0.42 a/gp - 0.85 p/gp)
Production post-injury: 9gp - 6g - 7a - 13p (0.67 g/gp - 0.68 a/gp - 1.44 p/gp)

Sure looks like someone is suffering the lingering effects of a long lay-off, n'est-ce pas ?

I wonder who is grasping ?

Lol the guy played hurt for half the season before his last injury, I wonder who doesn't know what they're talking about?

 

[Asmola]

He should be best in atleast one area of the game to even touch McDavid. Before that, no chance.

 

[Sidney the Kidney]

I do think he'd score a heck ofa lot more than he does. Have you seen the crappy TOI/PP time he gets and his 5 on 5 stats?

Haven't you argued in previous threads this summer that Tavares' stats will go up this year now that he's on a stacked team? But above you're arguing that being on a deep team is hurting Matthews' stats and he'd produce more if he was on a weak team getting more minutes. That seems to contradict one another.

 

[Absolut]

How can Brett Hull put himself in a conversation with Mario Lemieux? He can't. Ps. love Matthews, love Eichel - amazing players. Just not the same thing as McDavid.

 

[Sojourn]

We have a player who has proven to be a 40 goal scorer, above ppg for the season in question, proven playoff contributor from the previous year who then comes in and has a sub par performance which goes against everything else he has shown in his short career. The only thing that changed was his 20 games missed.


It's pretty clear you are grasping here, not me.

You're calling the single playoff round evidence that he is a "proven" playoff contributor, and you're accusing someone else of grasping at straws? Do you know what we call a sample size of 6? Insignificant.

 

[f1nn]

Isn't there some saying about not counting chickens in a glass house, or something like that.[/B]

Sure is a good thing the league gave Toronto that golden ticket to the playoffs before the seasons starts for signing Tavares. It would be kind of embarrassing if the could miss the postseason and someone quotes these comments about cockey Edmonton fans thinking they were cup favorites.

Really? Come on.. the saying is "pot calling the camel's back a chicken"

 

[Quiet Jack]

And if the leafs win a couple of cups the leafs can sign him to a huge contract and the rest of the hockey world will laugh as McDavid goes down in history as one of the all time greats.

Matthews is already closing in on Toews territory.

This post makes zero sense. Literally zero. And I am no Leafs fan.

It’s not idiotic. Toews didn’t lead his team to cups they were just stacked. The leafs have a significantly better team than the Oilers.

What’s going to end up happening is, (if) the leafs win the cup people will begin overrating Matthews like they did Toews.

Did I make it clear enough for you guys to understand?

I do admire the fact that this is the hill you've chosen to die on. Admirable.

 

[North Cole]

According to this article from earlier in the year
https://www.tsn.ca/statistically-speaking-mcdavid-matthews-generate-high-quality-chances-1.969693
Matthews actually generates more high danger chances. His issue is that Hyman had some of the highest chances in the league but finished the least amount of them. It means Matthews was setting up a guy who couldn't bury it. Hyman is a warrior but he is not a first liner.
With Marleau joining the line, he'll have two wingers who can finish. I expect a huge jump in points.

Yes, McDavid had a similar issue with Lucic on his line for half of the season.
Bit of a long post….Tried to post it yesterday but we crashed and then I got busy.

A couple of things about the article. I assume he did this analysis with only the data available at that point in the season - up until middle of January. McDavid had a very strong finish to the season while Matthews missed some games near the end and this is represented in the current stats.

The stats he presented up to date at the end of the year: CF/60, HDCF 60, HDCF%/CF%
McDavid - 66.41, 15.99, 24.07%
Matthews - 61.88, 13.56, 21.91%

The only stat Matthews was actually leading in the whole article was HDCF%/CF%, which seems redundant to me because he is using per 60 stats. So they are already normalized for ice time, we don't really need a %. What the percentage does is actually show us that Matthews is more selective with his shooting, whereas McDavid is more content to shoot from other areas of the ice. A higher % of Matthews’s shots are High Danger, but he does not create more High Danger shots. Does that make sense? The difference between their CF is greater than the difference between their HDCF, thus showing Matthews has a higher % and giving the illusion that Matthews creates more HDCF chances. There is no guarantee that Matthews would sustain that % by taking more shots and increasing his CF, in fact we should logically expect the opposite, because to increase his shots, he would likely have to take shots that are less dangerous (ie - less quality shots, for more quantity. Similar to Ovechkin).

At the end of the season McDavid is ahead in each of the offensive categories this person chose to analyze. Is it a case of sample size halfway through the season or some other issue, like a strong finish? I don't know. McDavid is also higher in expected goals for... I don't actually believe that Hyman is as big of a drain as people say. If anything I think it forces Matthews to be more selective with his shots which is why you see a lower CF/60, because he is less inclined to shoot for rebounds or pass, etc.

Matthews was generating almost 14.5% less CF by January, and yet his X/GF is only slightly less than McDavid. So why is he expected to have so many more GF, because he has a better shooting percentage? In laymans he is generating less shots but is expected to score at a similar rate, so the next question is - is it sustainable? Author doesn't really go into detail in this aspect. I'm also not sure where he is getting his xgf/60 stat from, at the end of the season - the site he claims to be using (corsica.hockey, NHL Player Stats - Corsica Hockey )has Matthews at 1.01 ixGF/60 and McDavid at 1.12 ixGF/60, significantly down from the 3.3/3.4 he is claiming. It's possible I'm looking in the wrong place.

This is before mentioning that the majority of the gaps for these stats are maintained or widened by McDavid when you take into account ES instead of simply 5v5. Passes the eye test because you would expect McDavid to be better with more space, since ES takes into account 3v3 OT, 4v4 and 5v5 situations.

TL;DR: All in all, the article is fairly convoluted, and I don't see it supporting your claim that he produces more HD chances. The author also never makes this claim that I can see, he just says "it should come as no surprise that Matthews and McDavid are two of the very best at generating high danger chances". He does not come right out and assert that Matthews is better at it. His HDCF% is higher, but that seems like a redudant calculation since McDavid creates more Corsi and more HDCF in per 60 metrics. Your claim also falls apart when you take into account the entire back half of the season. This is why @Sojourn was explaining why we need to give credit for players playing entire seasons. I get that Matthews was playing injured in the back half of the season, but McDavid was also quite ill for a portion of the first half of the season. That point is fairly moot IMO.

 

[North Cole]

This post makes zero sense. Literally zero. And I am no Leafs fan.



I do admire the fact that this is the hill you've chosen to die on. Admirable.

"But mistaken"..?

 

[eviohh26]

I could see a convo go "Mcdavid just burnt Matthews" or something. sure.

 

[Blowfish]

Cant be done. Matthews will never be able to skate like him.

 

[QcFlames12]

Like Matthews, hate Mcdavid but they are not on the same level.

Mcdavid is miles better than Matthews. This is not a Crosby and Ovi era the gap is quite large.