GBU Hope is the thing with feathers that perches in the soul, Lose 5-4 in Jersey 10/27/2023

[Matt Ress]

Boys doid a pretty good job shutting down their top 6. Not much from Hughes at all aside from the PP goal(?).

 

[MarkusKetterer]

View attachment 759094

Do you just ask random people to take a photo? Or do you actually plan to meet up with these people?

 

[BowieSabresFan]

I honestly hated his game last night, maybe my least favorite of the forwards. He contributed to a ton of unnecessary pressure against with crummy board play in his own zone. Wonder if he was trying to decide between Brooklyn or Manhattan to hit after the game.

If he wasn't scoring like he is so far (significant "if," I understand), he'd be near the top of our collective shitlist.

Agreed, and last night wasn't just crummy board play, even when he did decide to engate. It was also a few horrible passes.

It's my firm belief that his skill set is not suited at all to PP1.

 

[sabremike]

Do you just ask random people to take a photo? Or do you actually plan to meet up with these people?

No, this is organized online by the Displaced Sabres Fans X account.

 

[MarkusKetterer]

No, this is organized online by the Displaced Sabres Fans X account.

Twitter*

But fair enough. I always wondered how you managed to get these group photos

 

[joshjull]

Fine.

What about the forward depth? Not an issue for you?

Not really. I'm concerned that our best players are largely the problem right now. As a group they are both struggling to create offense while also being the ones frequently making the mistakes leading to goals against.

I'm guessing they're struggling with the pressure of expectations this season. We saw something similar when they were first in the playoff race last season. They eventually worked their way through that, and we need it to happen again.

 

[Tatanka]

It just seems to me that Tuch is a step slow processing most of the time right now. Am I seeing things that aren't there?

I observed the same thing. To me his foot speed is off. His effort and processing seem the same but he is lacking acceleration.

 

[Doug Prishpreed]

He definitely isn't playing like he did last year. He looks a step slow and a bit weak, which is maybe the same thing as you seeing him processing slowly.

To me, he's the type of player whose mental and physical games are more dependent on each other than most if that makes sense. It makes him dynamic and highly effective when it's all working. But right now it looks like his brain is expecting his body to be a tick quicker, stronger, etc and it's just not there, which throws everything off.

Maybe last year was the anomaly for him, not this year.

 

[Aladyyn]

UPL just stinks

 

[Doug Prishpreed]

UPL just stinks

You might be shocked to know that we weren't forced to have him on the team. It was a choice by the GM, who has backed him and voiced confidence consistently over the past 2 years.

It's not his fault, it's the GM's who chose to hire him and play him.

 

[Faceboner]

There is a third part of that troika too.

Young dumb and full of tums

 

[BFLO]

Wow it’s almost like they were down to 5 defenweman from the start of the game

Being down Connor Clifton should not have had an effect on our 4v4 game in the 1st period, or PP at any point in the game?

Also, losing Clifton actually helped us a lot. He was exceptionally terrible in the 4:28 of ice time that he got.

Clifton's on ice stats from the NJ game.

4:28 TOI

GF 0 GA 1

CF 1 CA 11
8.33 CF%

SF 1 SA 9
10.0 SF%

xGF 0.01 xGA 1.11

0.93 xGF%

HDCF 0 HDCA 3
HDCF% 0

His xGA/60 was a 14.94, which is off the charts bad. 15 goals expected against for every 60 minutes he was on the ice. 1 goal against every 4 minutes of ice time.

 

[Sabre the Win]

You might be shocked to know that we weren't forced to have him on the team. It was a choice by the GM, who has backed him and voiced confidence consistently over the past 2 years.

It's not his fault, it's the GM's who chose to hire him and play him.

It makes me wonder what advance stats they see on him where they can completely overlook his SV%

The only thing I can think of is they are still holding onto his 2021 season where he just barely broke .900 in the AHL and in limited games posted a .917 in the NHL.

Since then he hasn't been able to get back to .900 in the NHL or AHL.

Aren't players suppose to show development?

 

[Butt Ox]

I've accepted a future where the Sabres are to the Devils what the Lightning are to the Sabres. Every time NJ plays Buffalo a Devils player will be injured. The future is kind of a butt-head.

 

[HogtownSabresfan]

Seen enough of VO. Waive him and bring something up from Roch.
Jost is a 13th forward.
Still waiting on the Krebs.
Peterka seems to be a man without a kingdom. They don't have anyone he can play with.

The 05/06 playoff team started 9-9-2

That team had two goalies.

 

[Djp]

That team had two goalies.

They had 3.. Miller, Biron, and Nororen . Nororen got traded mid season.

 

[Beerz]

You might be shocked to know that we weren't forced to have him on the team. It was a choice by the GM, who has backed him and voiced confidence consistently over the past 2 years.

It's not his fault, it's the GM's who chose to hire him and play him.

It's actually the fault of the GM for not having quality goaltenders and UPL being forced up to the NHL instead of developing in the AHL for the past 2 years. And now it looks like he might be doing the same with Levi

 

[OkimLom]

It makes me wonder what advance stats they see on him where they can completely overlook his SV%

The only thing I can think of is they are still holding onto his 2021 season where he just barely broke .900 in the AHL and in limited games posted a .917 in the NHL.

Since then he hasn't been able to get back to .900 in the NHL or AHL.

Aren't players suppose to show development?

I’d be shocked if they are looking at anything about the guy.

The eyeball test clearly shows someone who is fragile when any sort of pressure is turned up. Any sort of instinct or gut they have in making decisions should tell you he’s not reliable.

 

[Matt Ress]

Being down Connor Clifton should not have had an effect on our 4v4 game in the 1st period, or PP at any point in the game?

Also, losing Clifton actually helped us a lot. He was exceptionally terrible in the 4:28 of ice time that he got.

Clifton's on ice stats from the NJ game.

4:28 TOI

GF 0 GA 1

CF 1 CA 11
8.33 CF%

SF 1 SA 9
10.0 SF%

xGF 0.01 xGA 1.11

0.93 xGF%

HDCF 0 HDCA 3
HDCF% 0

His xGA/60 was a 14.94, which is off the charts bad. 15 goals expected against for every 60 minutes he was on the ice. 1 goal against every 4 minutes of ice time.

I probably shouldn't even get involved here but you can't build a credible argument of advanced stats based on 4.5 minutes of play. It really doesn't prove anything. And being down a defenseman for an entire game has way more butterfly effect than just that individuals play. Not a case for one side or the other. Carry on.

 

[Krieger Bot]

View attachment 759108

Some stats below, not directed at Joshjull. Just didn't want to doublepost

We're 27th in the standings. Currently drafting 6th overall before lottery shenanigans.

From Natural Stat Trick
At all strengths through the first 8 games

Shot Quality:
xGF% 30th (we're the 3rd worst team at quality of shots generated vs surrendered)
xGF/60 29th (we're the 4th worst team at generating quality shots)
xGA/60 29th (we're the 4th worst team at surrendering high quality shots)

High Danger shot attempts:
HDCF% 30th
HDCF/60 30th
HDCA/60 27th

Goals Saved Above Expected:
Comrie 26th
Levi 45th
UPL 57th

HD Shots Against/60:
UPL 4th most
Comrie 9th
Levi 39th

In fairness, these are the all situations numbers, which are heavily impacted by penalties. The 5 on 5 numbers aren't perfect, but they're much better than this.

That said, there's still a lot of chaff on the team dragging the numbers down. Olofsson and Okposo's struggles are well documented. Krebs has been terrible too. Johnson's ES numbers are also pretty bad. Getting better play out of those guys (or, alternatively, their replacements) would go a long way towards improving the team's metrics.

 

[BFLO]

I probably shouldn't even get involved here but you can't build a credible argument of advanced stats based on 4.5 minutes of play. It really doesn't prove anything. And being down a defenseman for an entire game has way more butterfly effect than just that individuals play. Not a case for one side or the other. Carry on.

I don't think you understand what the stats I posted mean. xGF(expected goals for)/xGA(expected goals against) assigns a value to every shot on goal based on distance and angle to the net. For example a shot from the blue line has a very low value and a shot from the blue paint has a very high value. It's a stat that attempts to determine how many goals would be scored against average goal tending based on the value of the shots faced.

Dahlin 26:39 Toi
1.51 xGA.
3.4 xGA/60

Clifton 4:28
1.11 xGA.
14.84xGA/60

Clifton gave up nearly the same cumulative value of shot quality against in only 4:28, that Dahlin gave up in 26:39. That's absurd. Clifton was TERRIBLE.

Does this mean that Clifton is a terrible player? No. Does it mean he was terrible in this 4:28 sample size? Yes

In fairness, these are the all situations numbers, which are heavily impacted by penalties. The 5 on 5 numbers aren't perfect, but they're much better than this.

That said, there's still a lot of chaff on the team dragging the numbers down. Olofsson and Okposo's struggles are well documented. Krebs has been terrible too. Johnson's ES numbers are also pretty bad. Getting better play out of those guys (or, alternatively, their replacements) would go a long way towards improving the team's metrics.

5v5 stats are better, but still bottom 1/3rd of the league.

xGF% 18th
xGF 16th
xGA 20th

HDCF% 22nd
HDCF 18th
HDCA 25th

 

[Matt Ress]

I don't think you understand what the stats I posted mean. xGF(expected goals for)/xGA(expected goals against) assigns a value to every shot on goal based on distance and angle to the net. For example a shot from the blue line has a very low value and a shot from the blue paint has a very high value. It's a stat that attempts to determine how many goals would be scored against average goal tending based on the value of the shots faced.

Dahlin 26:39 Toi
1.51 xGA.
3.4 xGA/60

Clifton 4:28
1.11 xGA.
14.84xGA/60

Clifton gave up nearly the same cumulative value of shot quality against in only 4:28, that Dahlin gave up in 26:39. That's absurd. Clifton was TERRIBLE.

Does this mean that Clifton is a terrible player? No. Does it mean he was terrible in this 4:28 sample size? Yes



5v5 stats are better, but still bottom 1/3rd of the league.

xGF% 18th
xGF 16th
xGA 20th

HDCF% 22nd
HDCF 18th
HDCA 25th

Ok terrible in 4.5 minutes. Whatever. I'm out