Impossible to say. Hot goalie, puck luck, injuries etc. really, any team can win.
That being said, all things being equal, I'd say we have a decent shot at making it to the ECFs. After that, all bets are off.
In addition to everyone taking their game up a level, one cannot stress enough how important puck luck will be for whichever team is going to win the Cup this year. Example would be on Saturday against the B's when Gorges got enough of Cryci so he missed an open net. When the juju is good that happens, but all of last year the Habs were carrying some really bad juju. Even I as a fan contributed. After 40 years, I went to see my first two games ever. Gary Carter dies and the Habs lose both games and managed only one goal. We all need to do our part. Perhaps a good juju thread needs to start. BGally not taking credit for the tying goal against the B's in Boston is another great example. Remember Gilbert Dionne against Buffalo, sure they won the Cup, but he disappeared not so soon after.