Pre-Game Talk: Honest Expectations for the Playoffs

[drwpreds]

Expectations - winner of the series wins the west, assuming they stay healthy.

Nash has better D, and O matches up well 5x5
ANA has superior 1st line if they choose to put Perry and Getzlaf together, and a huge edge in special teams.

Peks has been inconsistent, and hasn't had PO success.
ANA has it's own PO ghosts, including last year's meltdown.

Preds stay out of the box, Preds have a legit chance; it negates Ducks true advantage and plays to our strength of D.
If I were betting, I'd still have to pick ANA, but this one, the STL/CHI series, and the DET/TAM series are the only ones that there isn't a clear and dominant fave.

I don't think they have a "huge" edge in special teams. I understand they are #1 in both, but our PK has been 1 or 2 in the league over the past 2 months and we have an above average power play.

Advantage?? Probably Huge Advantage??? I don't think so...

 

[Byrddog]

http://www.sportsclubstats.com/NHL.html

One team in the playoffs has less wins that us. From a pure chance to win the cup Detroit, Philly, Min have a statistical chance worse than the Preds.
The teams RPI is 14th.
The team strength at .530

If we can somehow get past the Ducks I wonder how these numbers would change. The level of competition is really no easier after round one.

 

[Filip Forceberg]

Excellent points but I would add on thing the Ducks have the instigators that are going to get to Neal and Riberio perhaps even Weber. If they continue to take there typical bonehead penalty per game theres big trouble.

I agree with this. But on the flip side Anaheim was #1 this season in:

• Penalties (396)
• Majors (43)
• PIM (1032)
• PIM/GP (12:28)

Hopefully our guys can find a way to get under their skin.

 

[predfan24]

http://www.sportsclubstats.com/NHL.html

One team in the playoffs has less wins that us. From a pure chance to win the cup Detroit, Philly, Min have a statistical chance worse than the Preds.
The teams RPI is 14th.
The team strength at .530

If we can somehow get past the Ducks I wonder how these numbers would change. The level of competition is really no easier after round one.

Comparing overall wins in the regular season is misleading if using the stat to compare two teams or one team relative to the league. The gimmicks of 3 on 3 OT and the shootout produces crazy stats. Comparing regular season regulation win/loss records is a much better way of going about it.

 

[Byrddog]

I agree with this. But on the flip side Anaheim was #1 this season in:

• Penalties (396)
• Majors (43)
• PIM (1032)
• PIM/GP (12:28)

Hopefully our guys can find a way to get under their skin.

Don't pass out but I agree with that as well but who are guys that get under the skin of opponents? Neal and Riberio both have a history of retaliating to the point of drawing a penalty as well. If we could somehow prevent them from this I would feel more comfortable. I have little doubt that one of Anaheims goals is going to be get these two and Weber in the box as often as they can. They have the advantage of having the best PP in the league by a good bit scoring over 25% of the time. If we take 4 minors a game its like spotting them a goal. On the other hand if we can draw them into more penalties at least we have a shot. They have more hot tempered guys than we do that's for sure. But they also have a better PK it is a double edged sword that our guys do not need to play.

 

[Roman Yoshi]

Anaheim has a tendency to come unglued if things aren't going right for them early in the game. Now, I understand they have the top ranked PK, so it may not make a difference, but getting under their skin early and often in the game is paramount to our chances of winning this series.

Conversely, I would say this Preds team is one that has faced adversity at every turn this season and more often than not, has risen to the challenge. Except in overtime.

 

[jusu11]

Don't pass out but I agree with that as well but who are guys that get under the skin of opponents?

Salomaki. Have to hope he is good to go when the series starts. He hits hard and often and I think he is able to upset many Ducks players during the series.

 

[NSH615]

Salomaki. Have to hope he is good to go when the series starts. He hits hard and often and I think he is able to upset many Ducks players during the series.

Yes! His hits on Perry in November completely knocked Perry off of his game. Perry then only sought for revenge rather than scoring the rest of the game.

 

[Roman Yoshi]

Salomaki. Have to hope he is good to go when the series starts. He hits hard and often and I think he is able to upset many Ducks players during the series.

Absolutely this

 

[Scoresberg]

How about when Watson sat Getzlaf on his ass back in November?

 

[RCola88]

Anaheim has a tendency to come unglued if things aren't going right for them early in the game. Now, I understand they have the top ranked PK, so it may not make a difference, but getting under their skin early and often in the game is paramount to our chances of winning this series.

Conversely, I would say this Preds team is one that has faced adversity at every turn this season and more often than not, has risen to the challenge. Except in overtime.

Preds are really good at getting going fast and with a lot of pressure in the O-zone. We have to start that way every game to have the best shot

 

[RCola88]

Absolutely this

Bass is great at this as well. He just has to stay out of the box.

 

[BonMorrison]

I think Salomaki is gonna do awesome. I could see him going full unsung hero mode.

 

[TitansVolsPreds615]

I think Salomaki is gonna do awesome. I could see him going full unsung hero mode.

Didn't someone say he turned into a monster in the playoffs when he was in Europe?

 

[TootooTrain]

I have a feeling he has a Joel Ward type of post-season. Capitalizing on the few chances he gets.

 

[Drake744]

Preds are really good at getting going fast and with a lot of pressure in the O-zone. We have to start that way every game to have the best shot

If we can have a few of those patented Preds games where we have 10 shots on goal really early and get a couple of them to go in for us then we can really get them on their heels in a hurry.

 

[Scoresberg]

Didn't someone say he turned into a monster in the playoffs when he was in Europe?

Me. He did. He went under the skin of every player in the opposite team and chipped in offensively. He was truly a monster in those playoffs.

 

[RCola88]

Me. He did. He went under the skin of every player in the opposite team and chipped in offensively. He was truly a monster in those playoffs.

Omg please happen this year

 

[PeterSidorkiewicz]

Delete.

 

[torero]

I do believe that we reach the 3rd round. Once we are their ... all odds are open.

And
I am so happy to see the Blackhawds and the Blues destroy each other.

(my team in Swizerland became champions yesterday ... that is 3 rounds) ... i see something similar.

 

[Scoresberg]

Omg please happen this year

I don't know his ice time is limited in Nash. Back here he played on the 2nd line.

 

[codeman00]

After watching the Hawks / Blues game last night, one thing I realized is that I haven't seen goaltending like that for quite some time (out of the Predators). How priceless that is to the team to only have to score 1-2 goals to win the game. Pekka really needs to step it up in the playoffs.

 

[Byrddog]

Comparing overall wins in the regular season is misleading if using the stat to compare two teams or one team relative to the league. The gimmicks of 3 on 3 OT and the shootout produces crazy stats. Comparing regular season regulation win/loss records is a much better way of going about it.

Well if you remove the 2 OT wins and the 4 shootout wins you have a team that has 35 regulation wins that's .304 hockey. And I agree with you about the gimmicks of the 3 point games. But that is out the window now. So straight up wins are what count and I have seen nothing to indicate we can expect better results than the regular season. The last 6 games of the reg season the team scored more than 2 goals once this was after the 7 game win streak where they scored 3 or more 5 times. Now in the 3 games vs the Ducks the team did score 10 but two of those games were early in the year when the Ducks were playing poorly. The Preds also allowed the Ducks 3 pp goals while only scoring 1PP goal themselves. I could be wrong but the more I look at the numbers the more I think we will get swept.

 

[triggrman]

Well, if you're removing the OT/Shutout wins then you also have to remove the losses, so those games would not count, so that would leave us at a 64 game schedule, and we won 35, a win percentage of .547

I know that doesn't help your negativity though, so whatever.

 

[NSH615]

Well if you remove the 2 OT wins and the 4 shootout wins you have a team that has 35 regulation wins that's .304 hockey. And I agree with you about the gimmicks of the 3 point games. But that is out the window now. So straight up wins are what count and I have seen nothing to indicate we can expect better results than the regular season. The last 6 games of the reg season the team scored more than 2 goals once this was after the 7 game win streak where they scored 3 or more 5 times. Now in the 3 games vs the Ducks the team did score 10 but two of those games were early in the year when the Ducks were playing poorly. The Preds also allowed the Ducks 3 pp goals while only scoring 1PP goal themselves. I could be wrong but the more I look at the numbers the more I think we will get swept.

How does the 35 regulation wins compare to others? 11th and 3 teams (including St. Louis and Chicago) are tied with 1 more than us.

Washington Capitals - 45
Dallas Stars - 42
Florida Panthers - 39
Anaheim Ducks - 39
New York Rangers - 39
Pittsburgh Penguins - 38
San Jose Sharks - 37
St. Louis Blues - 36
Chicago Blackhawks - 36
Tampa Bay Lightning - 36
Nashville Predators - 35

Based on this, I would say the OT skews the record significantly.


Stats from: http://www.sportingcharts.com/nhl/s...y-type-regulation-overtime-and-shootout/2015/