Hockey's Future Top 50 Prospects Spring 2006: 11-25

[Wolfpack]

Cue the Parise bashing :/

Okay, I've got nothing against Parise, but when a statement like this is made with respect to Rob Schremp...

"The Top 50 Prospects list is in the pursuit of future All-Stars and not sure-bet third liners,..."

I have to wonder how Parise gets rated so high. He will be a good 2-way centreman. But All-Star? Is he now the second coming of Sergei Fedorov? I almost feel sorry for this kid, the ceiling that has been established for him.

 

[David A. Rainer]

especially when he is #10 on Hockey News future watch.

And THN had Tomas Zizka as the Kings #3 prospect at one time. Yes, that Tomas Zizka. As I alway say, to each his own.

 

[mmmBeer]

That means the defensive style they have played since the Thornton trade has served him well. I'm not saying he didn't improve over that time, but the free wheeling style, similar to that the Hurricanes play, that the Bruins were trying to employ at the start of the year lead to less impressive statistics for Toivonen like they have done for Ward.

If Boston tried to play a free wheeling style at the beginning of the year it was a stillborn attempt. The Bruins defense corp at that time wouldn't have been able to get the puck out of their own zone against the Kazakhstan women's olympic hockey team (whether or not they actually have one).

Not to say that makes Toivonen better than Ward or anything, I don't know much about him.

 

[Vagrant]

If Boston tried to play a free wheeling style at the beginning of the year it was a stillborn attempt. The Bruins defense corp at that time wouldn't have been able to get the puck out of their own zone against the Kazakhstan women's olympic hockey team (whether or not they actually have one).

Not to say that makes Toivonen better than Ward or anything, I don't know much about him.

Well, suffice it to say that Boston didn't play a very defensive game at the start of the year. Regardless of whether or not their offense worked as they planned, they had pretty much neglected the defensive aspects of the game. Trading for Brad Stuart, a legitimate top flight first pairing defenseman, along with aquiring Marco Sturm and Wayne Primeau made that team pretty solid on the defensive side of things. That, in turn, helped Toivonen. Again, i'm not saying that's the only factor in the improvement of his play but it does have to weigh in at some point. This is only an argument for the stat pushers though, so it doesn't really have any bearing on how WELL he has played. It's just a debate to negate a little of the people who are going to hockeydb.com to make assesments of players.

 

[Pepper]

Canes are loaded with defensively-responsible forwards such as Brindamour (Selke candidate!), Staal, Stillman (several Selke nominations!), Cole etc.

Their system is not exactly copy of 80's Oilers either.

Personally I don't think Bruins are overall any better defensively than Canes, quite the contrary in fact.

 

[Vagrant]

Canes are loaded with defensively-responsible forwards such as Brindamour (Selke candidate!), Staal, Stillman (several Selke nominations!), Cole etc.

Their system is not exactly copy of 80's Oilers either.

Personally I don't think Bruins are overall any better defensively than Canes, quite the contrary in fact.

However, one must conceed that their system is strongly based on aggressive forechecking to create offensive pressure. No matter what the circumstances, if that play backfires you're going to give up a LOT of offensive chances going back the other way. If a team could maintain offensive pressure for the entire game with aggressive forechecking, then every team in the league would utilize that philosophy. Obviously there are downsides to it, like giving up odd man rushes because you have too many defensemen pinching to control the offensive zone or you have a glut of fowards behind the net to get the cycle game running. It's not a flawless system, and that's why the chances that are given up are usually quality chances.

Again though, everybody is entitled to their own opinion about this. But to say that the Bruins are a worse defensive team than Carolina post-Thornton is a blatant oversight in my opinion. It's how they're winning games.

 

[Pepper]

However, one must conceed that their system is strongly based on aggressive forechecking to create offensive pressure. No matter what the circumstances, if that play backfires you're going to give up a LOT of offensive chances going back the other way. If a team could maintain offensive pressure for the entire game with aggressive forechecking, then every team in the league would utilize that philosophy. Obviously there are downsides to it, like giving up odd man rushes because you have too many defensemen pinching to control the offensive zone or you have a glut of fowards behind the net to get the cycle game running. It's not a flawless system, and that's why the chances that are given up are usually quality chances.

Again though, everybody is entitled to their own opinion about this. But to say that the Bruins are a worse defensive team than Carolina post-Thornton is a blatant oversight in my opinion. It's how they're winning games.

Aggressive forecheck also causes lots of turnovers which in turn lead to less pressure on defensive zone. Canes can play aggressive system because of the great defensive forwards they have, from what I've seen they give very few odd-men attacks to opponents, they always have atleast one forward betwen the puck and own defensive zone.

I'm not saying that post-Thornton Bruins are necessarily worse defensively, I'm saying that you can't explain the difference in Ward's and Toivonen's numbers this year by saying Canes are worse defensively.

IMHO Toivonen should have been clearly ahead of Ward but like you said, everyone is entitled to have an opinion about this.

EDIT: also it's noticeable how much worse Ward's save-% is compared to Gerber despite getting the easier games, large majority of Ward's games are against non-play-off teams while Gerber gets the tougher games.

IMHO you can't justify Ward's ranking ahead of Toivonen on performance this year becaus Toivonen has been clearly better.

 

[Jason MacIsaac]

Okay, I've got nothing against Parise, but when a statement like this is made with respect to Rob Schremp...

"The Top 50 Prospects list is in the pursuit of future All-Stars and not sure-bet third liners,..."

I have to wonder how Parise gets rated so high. He will be a good 2-way centreman. But All-Star? Is he now the second coming of Sergei Fedorov? I almost feel sorry for this kid, the ceiling that has been established for him.

Thats funny because he is playing 2nd line minutes right now but with 4th line players. There isn't much a young playmaker can do with Brylin and Marshall.

 

[Pepper]

Thats funny because he is playing 2nd line minutes right now but with 4th line players. There isn't much a young playmaker can do with Brylin and Marshall.

What's even funnier is the fact that both Brylin and Marshall are outscoring Parise.

Btw, Brylin is hardly a 4th liner.

 

[Missionhockey]

What's even funnier is the fact that both Brylin and Marshall are outscoring Parise.

Btw, Brylin is hardly a 4th liner.

Larry Robinson kind of stunted his development. In the begining of the year he was down to about 5 min a game. If he was given more responsibility from the get go, like he is now, his numbers would be much better.

 

[Vic Rattlehead*]

I don't get it, Toivonen has better stats than Ward this season and has more potential, yet he is rated 8 spots behind?

 

[ShortHanded]

i do have a question after reviewing the list again: Why is Robbie Schremp ranked so high? Everyone around him it seems has shown the ability to play at least at the AHL level, if not he NHL level. While I realize RS has had a great year at the Jr level, it still seems to me he's ranked to high, comparatively speaking.

 

[ShortHanded]

Canes are loaded with defensively-responsible forwards such as Brindamour (Selke candidate!), Staal, Stillman (several Selke nominations!), Cole etc.

Their system is not exactly copy of 80's Oilers either.

Personally I don't think Bruins are overall any better defensively than Canes, quite the contrary in fact.

correct me if I'm wrong but Stillman has never, to my knowledge, been a Selke Candidate... matter of fact when he was with St.Louis his defensive play was mediocre at best. When was he ever nominated for a Selke?

 

[Slats432]

i do have a question after reviewing the list again: Why is Robbie Schremp ranked so high? Everyone around him it seems has shown the ability to play at least at the AHL level, if not he NHL level. While I realize RS has had a great year at the Jr level, it still seems to me he's ranked to high, comparatively speaking.

Schremp isn't old enough to be in the AHL. It isn't because of talent that he is back in junior. He doesn't have the strength and conditioning for the NHL. Hence he is using the OHL as his personal chew toy.

 

[Seph]

correct me if I'm wrong but Stillman has never, to my knowledge, been a Selke Candidate... matter of fact when he was with St.Louis his defensive play was mediocre at best. When was he ever nominated for a Selke?

To my knowledge also Stillman has never even sniffed a Selke nomination. I tend to think of him as below average defensively, and I know I'm not the only one.

 

[X-SHARKIE]

I don't get it, Toivonen has better stats than Ward this season and has more potential, yet he is rated 8 spots behind?

There is a lot I don't like about this list, and that was one of the things that jumped out.

 

[Vagrant]

I don't get it, Toivonen has better stats than Ward this season and has more potential, yet he is rated 8 spots behind?

It depends on how you assess potential, IMO. Ward has dominated every level he has ever played at. Every single one. Take a look at his stats from the WHL and the AHL during last season. He was twice the WHL's goaltender of the year and was the MVP of the WHL in his final season. He was named the CHL's best goaltender that year as well. Many claimed that his numbers were so good in the WHL because of Phaneuf and Woywitka, but they were proven wrong in his first pro season. He went into the AHL last year and recorded 6 shutouts while maintaining a 1.99 GAA and .937 save percentage. All of that as a rookie goaltender in his first pro season. Toivonen didn't even replicate those numbers in his second year in the AHL, which was the lockout season. Again, I don't want to be misconstrued as a Toivonen basher, because he's an outstanding young goaltender.

It's a mystery to me how one can judge potential anyways. Ward has had games where he has looked like a franchise caliber goaltender and so has Toivonen. They have both been fairly inconsistant, as young goaltenders are, but I think the differance is negligible to say the least. They were both drafted in the first round of the 2002 Draft, and neither has done anything to hurt their stock. They are still as close as the draft selections would indicate, and I feel that Ward is just a hair better at this point. Granted, Ward's numbers haven't been great recently but that will be a passing thing. We shouldn't jump so quick to judgement based upon 20 respective NHL games for both men. If that was the criteria, then they would all be behind Ray Emery.

It must also be stressed that the differance between #12 and #17 on these lists are very marginal. There is so much young talent coming into the NHL right now, that those rankings can be just downright personal preference and one person to the next might tell you differant things about both players. I just get upset at people who give the edge in "potential", which is a very liquid asset, to the player that is more mysterious and more unknown. Kari Lehtonen had this same luxary over Marc-Andre Fleury, and it was just as annoying then as it is now. People always want to take the unknown quantity.

 

[Vic Rattlehead*]

It depends on how you assess potential, IMO. Ward has dominated every level he has ever played at. Every single one. Take a look at his stats from the WHL and the AHL during last season. He was twice the WHL's goaltender of the year and was the MVP of the WHL in his final season. He was named the CHL's best goaltender that year as well. Many claimed that his numbers were so good in the WHL because of Phaneuf and Woywitka, but they were proven wrong in his first pro season. He went into the AHL last year and recorded 6 shutouts while maintaining a 1.99 GAA and .937 save percentage. All of that as a rookie goaltender in his first pro season. Toivonen didn't even replicate those numbers in his second year in the AHL, which was the lockout season. Again, I don't want to be misconstrued as a Toivonen basher, because he's an outstanding young goaltender.

Toivonen didn't replicate those numbers, but he had better numbers than Fleury and Lehtonen. Also, Toivonen was the ONLY reason the Bruins made the playoffs, and the ONLY reason they went as far as the did (defeating Lowell, which Cam Ward was a part of). There were some periods where Toivonen had to play three games in three nights because he was their only hope.

You make Toivonen's numbers from the AHL sound bad, but 2.05 GAA and .932 SV%, along with seven shutouts was amazing considering the majority of the defence in front of him were ECHL scrubs.

I guarantee you that if Ward played for Providence last season, his numbers would have been worse.

EDIT---Toivonen has also shined on the international stage, stealing a bronze medal for the Fins at the WJC's not too long ago.

 

[Vagrant]

Toivonen didn't replicate those numbers, but he had better numbers than Fleury and Lehtonen. Also, Toivonen was the ONLY reason the Bruins made the playoffs, and the ONLY reason they went as far as the did (defeating Lowell, which Cam Ward was a part of). There were some periods where Toivonen had to play three games in three nights because he was their only hope.

You make Toivonen's numbers from the AHL sound bad, but 2.05 GAA and .932 SV%, along with seven shutouts was amazing considering the majority of the defence in front of him were ECHL scrubs.

I guarantee you that if Ward played for Providence last season, his numbers would have been worse.

You can't guarantee anything that subjective. That pretty much negates the value of a guarantee. Ward could have gone the entire year without letting a goal in had he played for Providence last year, but we'll never really know.

Again, as many times as I say it, i'm not a Toivonen basher. Don't defend him against me like i'm calling him the world's largest sieve. I also didn't say his numbers with Providence were terrible, but both Ward and Toivonen played behind pretty thin defense at the AHL level last year and produced pretty good numbers. Ward's were slightly better and he had nearly a year less experience at that level. Meh.

 

[HughJass*]

Thanx for the list HF, tho therell be always different opinions, i have my own included, the effort still appreciated...

Ditto.

 

[Bryanbryoil]

i do have a question after reviewing the list again: Why is Robbie Schremp ranked so high? Everyone around him it seems has shown the ability to play at least at the AHL level, if not he NHL level. While I realize RS has had a great year at the Jr level, it still seems to me he's ranked to high, comparatively speaking.

I have no doubt that he'd be averaging a ppg+ in the AHL this year as a 19 year old rookie. This isn't the sure bet list, this is a potential list. Hell if it was about how close you are to the NHL then a guy like Brad Winchester would be ahead of Bobby Ryan.

 

[dafoomie]

He went into the AHL last year and recorded 6 shutouts while maintaining a 1.99 GAA and .937 save percentage. All of that as a rookie goaltender in his first pro season. Toivonen didn't even replicate those numbers in his second year in the AHL, which was the lockout season. Again, I don't want to be misconstrued as a Toivonen basher, because he's an outstanding young goaltender.

Ward had a 1.99 GAA and .937% with 6 SO, Toivonen had a 2.05 GAA and a .932% with 7 SO. The difference is only 0.06 and .005, very marginal. I'd say they've been even at the AHL level. If you want to take it that far, Toivonen was better in the playoffs that year, with 2.43/.923 compared to Ward's 2.53/.918. Again, I don't think theres much difference at all.

I'm really not trying to argue the point that one is better, even though I do favor Toivonen, but I don't think one has had a better body of work than the other to this point, its too close to say which will be better. I think that Toivonen has definitely been better in the NHL this year, but that means nothing long term.

No matter who you rank higher, someone isn't going to like it. With these two, there is nothing of substance that anyone can point to, to rationalize putting one over the other, its all subjective and its all opinion. Thats the only point I want to make. I think they'll both be fine goalies in one of the most amazing groups of young goalies that have ever come up.

 

[Randall Graves*]

any explanation for Ballards omission yet?

 

[Pepper]

To my knowledge also Stillman has never even sniffed a Selke nomination. I tend to think of him as below average defensively, and I know I'm not the only one.

Sorry, I was thinking about Conroy in St.Louis. My bad.

 

[Pepper]

It depends on how you assess potential, IMO. Ward has dominated every level he has ever played at. Every single one. Take a look at his stats from the WHL and the AHL during last season. He was twice the WHL's goaltender of the year and was the MVP of the WHL in his final season. He was named the CHL's best goaltender that year as well. Many claimed that his numbers were so good in the WHL because of Phaneuf and Woywitka, but they were proven wrong in his first pro season. He went into the AHL last year and recorded 6 shutouts while maintaining a 1.99 GAA and .937 save percentage. All of that as a rookie goaltender in his first pro season. Toivonen didn't even replicate those numbers in his second year in the AHL, which was the lockout season. Again, I don't want to be misconstrued as a Toivonen basher, because he's an outstanding young goaltender.

It's a mystery to me how one can judge potential anyways. Ward has had games where he has looked like a franchise caliber goaltender and so has Toivonen. They have both been fairly inconsistant, as young goaltenders are, but I think the differance is negligible to say the least. They were both drafted in the first round of the 2002 Draft, and neither has done anything to hurt their stock. They are still as close as the draft selections would indicate, and I feel that Ward is just a hair better at this point. Granted, Ward's numbers haven't been great recently but that will be a passing thing. We shouldn't jump so quick to judgement based upon 20 respective NHL games for both men. If that was the criteria, then they would all be behind Ray Emery.

It must also be stressed that the differance between #12 and #17 on these lists are very marginal. There is so much young talent coming into the NHL right now, that those rankings can be just downright personal preference and one person to the next might tell you differant things about both players. I just get upset at people who give the edge in "potential", which is a very liquid asset, to the player that is more mysterious and more unknown. Kari Lehtonen had this same luxary over Marc-Andre Fleury, and it was just as annoying then as it is now. People always want to take the unknown quantity.

Toivonen has shined on every level as well and he has been far more impressive at top levels, he was brilliant in WJC, he was brilliant in FEL, he was brilliant in AHL and he's shining in NHL as well.

NHL numbers are not even close with these two so I have to ask again, what has Ward done to warrant a spot ahead Toivonen? IMHO nothing.