Hockey's Future Top 50 Prospects Spring 2006: 11-25

Status
Not open for further replies.

Starsdude

Registered User
Jul 7, 2002
3,509
0
Visit site
Solid defensive d-men get way underrated until a team has to give their left nut for one-Ballard Smid Weber

smallish offensive minded centers generally overrated remember when Hudler was can't miss

College guys underrated-Carle?
Euro wingers hard to predict-Prucha and jokinin from nowhere

Great job overall though as really there are 40-50 guys who could make aclaim to be in the 25-50 range depending on what you value-I still say the point is to make and contribute to the big club though so you need to look at production
 

Vagrant

The Czech Condor
Feb 27, 2002
23,660
8,273
North Carolina
Visit site
Wally112pac said:
They upgraded Toivonen to 8.5A

One shouldn't go by ratings to judge who's the better goalie.

They're both in the NHL so you can watch them play. Toivonen is the better goalie so far.

The numbers for Carolina's goaltenders are really deceptive this year. That is partly due to the system that we run. Carolina plays a really aggressive forechecking game that creates, and sadly yields, a lot of quality chances. Martin Gerber has been one of the more consistant goaltenders so far this year, and even he has a goals against average of 2.73 and a save percentage of .906%. However, he has come up huge in situations where he was needed. The whole philosophy in Carolina has been give up three goals and score six of them. That play has impacted the numbers of the goaltenders and the plus minus ratings of the more defensive defensemen, but it has lead to a heaping helping of wins. I'm comfortable with that. If you're looking at the numbers alone, then you probably should take Toivonen. Boston plays a system very much in tune with the old NHL style. They have a lot of two way forwards that are responsible in both ends of the ice and they play a very reserved style that is based on being advantageous about scoring chances, while maintaining a very safe defensive coverage. That simply is a stylistic clash with Carolina.

I'm not going to come out and say that Ward is better and that Toivonen is garbage, because it's really too early to call. However, if i'm looking at progression since being drafted as well as a track record of being a winning goaltender, then i'm going with Ward. He has improved his game leaps and bounds from year to year since being drafted and there is no reason to think that trend won't continue. A lot of the goals that he has been responsible for this year are failures in technicality. Like the goal against Crosby when we played Pittsburgh last week. He simply didn't have his pads flat to the ice and his footwork was bad, and it lead to a cheapie. It ended up costing us momentum and a chance to take that game to overtime, but those are growing pains. He stood on his head in the previous game and put us in position to win it. It's a give and take with a young goaltender. Take a look at the defensive trainwreck that Fluery is playing behind in Pittsburgh and you'll see what i'm talking about. I assure you that Fluery is better than those numbers indicate, and that doesn't mean he's a worse goaltender than Toivonen. There are too many variables with goaltending to really grasp who is better without watching an extended amount of them both. I've seen a good deal of Toivonen as well as Ward, and i'm confident in Ward's ability to be at least on par if not better than Toivonen. It's a personal preference.

Ask any Penguins fan that saw Ward early in the season where he stoned Lemiuex, Crosby, and Palffy on successive shootout attempts. This kid has the swagger and the talent to back it up. He's still my pick.
 

Rez

Registered User
Oct 5, 2005
761
0
Metallian said:
HF Ratings:

Toivonen: 8.0A
Ward: 8.5B

it should be no surprise that HF rated Ward ahead of Toivonen, they've had him ahead of him for the last year
Team ratings are done independently of each other, and by different scouts. They shouldn't be used for comparison.
 

shaner8989

Registered User
Aug 6, 2005
22,831
4,763
Smid should be on there for sure. unless he has really be horrible of late which i dont think he has
 

Wally112pac

Registered User
Dec 26, 2003
1,826
0
Canada
Visit site
Caniacforever said:
Ask any Penguins fan that saw Ward early in the season where he stoned Lemiuex, Crosby, and Palffy on successive shootout attempts. This kid has the swagger and the talent to back it up. He's still my pick.

Meh.

Ward was great early on but probably came a bit back down to earth in the last while.

IMO he could use another year in the AHL starting 50+ games.

That's not to say he won't be a great NHL goalie he just needs to work on consistency like most young goalies.
 

HOCKEY_GURU

Registered User
Jun 27, 2002
661
0
Visit site
Thanx for the list HF, tho therell be always different opinions, i have my own included, the effort still appreciated, most of the complaints dont take into account bird in the hand vs 2 in the bush, the safe pick non sexy pick vs risky sexy pick, doesent mean we cant disagree, but nice to see different opinions based on facts and reason instead of complaining yet not supporting an argument, One thing i wouldnt have minded seing this year is perhaps a top 75 (or even top 100) list due to the lockout and so mnay this year in the top 50 being full time NHL-ers, perhaps we can start one here ..always interesting to see :)
 

dafoomie

Registered User
Jul 22, 2005
14,772
1,498
Boston
Caniacforever said:
The numbers for Carolina's goaltenders are really deceptive this year. That is partly due to the system that we run. Carolina plays a really aggressive forechecking game that creates, and sadly yields, a lot of quality chances. Martin Gerber has been one of the more consistant goaltenders so far this year, and even he has a goals against average of 2.73 and a save percentage of .906%. However, he has come up huge in situations where he was needed. The whole philosophy in Carolina has been give up three goals and score six of them. That play has impacted the numbers of the goaltenders and the plus minus ratings of the more defensive defensemen, but it has lead to a heaping helping of wins. I'm comfortable with that. If you're looking at the numbers alone, then you probably should take Toivonen. Boston plays a system very much in tune with the old NHL style. They have a lot of two way forwards that are responsible in both ends of the ice and they play a very reserved style that is based on being advantageous about scoring chances, while maintaining a very safe defensive coverage. That simply is a stylistic clash with Carolina.

I'm not going to come out and say that Ward is better and that Toivonen is garbage, because it's really too early to call. However, if i'm looking at progression since being drafted as well as a track record of being a winning goaltender, then i'm going with Ward. He has improved his game leaps and bounds from year to year since being drafted and there is no reason to think that trend won't continue. A lot of the goals that he has been responsible for this year are failures in technicality. Like the goal against Crosby when we played Pittsburgh last week. He simply didn't have his pads flat to the ice and his footwork was bad, and it lead to a cheapie. It ended up costing us momentum and a chance to take that game to overtime, but those are growing pains. He stood on his head in the previous game and put us in position to win it. It's a give and take with a young goaltender. Take a look at the defensive trainwreck that Fluery is playing behind in Pittsburgh and you'll see what i'm talking about. I assure you that Fluery is better than those numbers indicate, and that doesn't mean he's a worse goaltender than Toivonen. There are too many variables with goaltending to really grasp who is better without watching an extended amount of them both. I've seen a good deal of Toivonen as well as Ward, and i'm confident in Ward's ability to be at least on par if not better than Toivonen. It's a personal preference.
I don't mind someone taking Ward over Toivonen (though I disagree), its all a matter of opinion and none of us can see the future.

But, I don't buy your argument. Carolina may play a very aggressive style, but the Bruins were god awful until late December, especially in their own zone. They were the 2nd or 3rd worst team in the NHL for almost 3 months. While the Bruins have been much better lately, Toivonen only benefitted from that for about 2 weeks until his ankle injury. At best, the effect of the team around them statistically is a wash. In my opinion, Toivonen's stats suffered far more.

But, I think the stats are meaningless anyway in this context. I do think Ward is going to be good, but I like Toivonen more. They're the same age, drafted 4 picks apart, with similar expectations, its just too close to call right now. No one can definitively say that one is going to be better than the other. But, I think Toivonen is a little further along in his development, and is ready to take over the starting job (he did, until he got hurt). Ward, from what I've seen, heard, and read, could use a little more seasoning. However, that makes zero difference in terms of how good they're going to be in the future.
 

Bryanbryoil

Pray For Ukraine
Sep 13, 2004
85,952
34,072
I don't know if I'm in the minority here, but IMO Parise should be behind Schremp,Getzlaf,Perry, and Richards.
 

Chrisd

Registered User
Dec 20, 2005
1,545
0
I'd put getzlaf and richards ahead of parise....but schremp and perry are debateable
 

CRUNK JUICE

Registered User
Nov 19, 2002
1,139
0
Austin, TX
webspace.utexas.edu
Abyss said:
Yeah thats the 1st thing I noticed :)

Also surprised Coburn above Whitney.

I'm surprised Semin is so high :) guess he is gonna be the real deal.


I was surprised by this too. Not sold on Coburn, and I really like Ward's game, but I just think Hannu and Whitney will be better players.

But, I also haven't seen these guys as much as the staff, no doubt, so I'm willing to defer to them on this one. I do hear a lot about Coburn's unreal upside (and have seen some flashes of it in the very few games I've watched him), I just question whether he'll be able to do it consistantly. Overall, I always love these lists and want to give a shout out to the staff for doing yet another great job. :clap: :clap: :clap:
 

Pepper

Registered User
Aug 30, 2004
14,693
269
How Schremp is ahead of Perry is beyond me...Perry has proven himself in WJCs, OHL, AHL and now he's doing well in NHL.

Schremp has a great season OHL but that's it? Perry is bigger, tougher, has better on-ice vision and has better attitude. Schremp has his great shot and that's it.
 

Pepper

Registered User
Aug 30, 2004
14,693
269
Oh and Parise above Toivonen, Getzlaf, Richards etc???

Even Pierre McGuire would be ashamed of that ranking. Small and needs to improve his defensive game a lot...Hmmm, what exactly is the area that put him above Richards & Getzlaf again?
 

BobbyClarkeFan16

Registered User
Nov 29, 2005
10,777
3,877
Goderich, Ontario
I think it's a good list. You can't please everyone all the time and people are always going to complain if their prospects are ranked lower than someone else's prospects. I think the top 3 though is going to be something like Ovechkin, Crosby and Malkin, and that would be a shame. If you want the top guy to be the one that has had the greater impact on their team, I've gotta think that you have to go with Dion Phaneuf. 20 years old, number one D-man on his team, leads the D-corps in scoring and looks like a veteran out there. He fights, he hits, he can take a hit, and never seems to be out of position. As well, number one defensemen seem to be harder to find than "generational" forward talents, which seem to come along almost every year now.
 

Lowball Norm

Registered User
Nov 20, 2002
520
0
Visit site
re: Ward vs. Toivonen

I have no idea who the better goalie is, but I decided to hedge my bets in my fantasy keeper league and acquired both of them ... plus Ryan Miller :)

Also, I just have to say - JESSE NIINIMAKI SNUBBED AGAIN!?!?!?!?

;)
 

Vagrant

The Czech Condor
Feb 27, 2002
23,660
8,273
North Carolina
Visit site
Wally112pac said:
Meh.

Ward was great early on but probably came a bit back down to earth in the last while.

IMO he could use another year in the AHL starting 50+ games.

That's not to say he won't be a great NHL goalie he just needs to work on consistency like most young goalies.

I can get behind that statement, it's not too far off. Like you said though, his start to the year was just amazing and it was obvious that his confidence was through the roof for that early stretch. If there was one mistake that i've seen that Laviolette made this year, and i'm certainly not trying to criticize, it was benching Ward for that extended period of time after having one off game and not playing him at all for a good stretch. He was subsequently sent down to the AHL to be brought back to playing speed, and aside from a few odd games, he hasn't been nearly the goaltender since coming back.

However, he has shown a few great performances since then but the consistancy needs to be there. The 40 save with 3 goals allowed against Philidelphia was just HUGE for him. 3 goals and 39 saves against NYI was impressive. 29 saves and 1 goal allowed against NYI earlier in the year and another 35 save 3 goals allowed against them. 31 saves 1 goal allowed against Atlanta was clutch as well. See what I mean by those games though? He has been facing a ridiculous number of shots in the games he has been giving up goals in. From those games I just listed, he averaged about 35 shots against per game and those listed were a few of his better games.

In addition to the poster who said that Toivonen only recieved two weeks worth of the improved lineup without Thornton, he actually accrued most of his more impressive games behind that new lineup that was actually winning games. If you don't believe me, take a look at Toivonen's splits after December 1st when Thornton was traded:

http://tsn.ca/nhl/teams/players/gamelog/?id=3098&team=BOS

Goals against and Save % before December 1st: 3.22 gaa and .898%
Goals against and Save % after December 1st: 2.00 gaa and .934%

That means the defensive style they have played since the Thornton trade has served him well. I'm not saying he didn't improve over that time, but the free wheeling style, similar to that the Hurricanes play, that the Bruins were trying to employ at the start of the year lead to less impressive statistics for Toivonen like they have done for Ward. Granted, the two situations aren't exactly alike but there are some similarities there. I would be willing to estimate that if Ward played on a team that was more defensively responsible, his statistics would be much improved due to the way he has been playing thus far in the year. If he was playing as terrible as his numbers indicate, Carolina would have gone after a backup goaltender long before now considering the circumstances. He's still 11-5-2, despite his other numbers not looking as impressive.
 

Slats432

Registered User
Jun 2, 2002
14,757
2,778
hockeypedia.com
Lowball Norm said:
re: Ward vs. Toivonen

I have no idea who the better goalie is, but I decided to hedge my bets in my fantasy keeper league and acquired both of them ... plus Ryan Miller :)

Also, I just have to say - JESSE NIINIMAKI SNUBBED AGAIN!?!?!?!?

;)
I think people overestimate the gap in between players. How much difference is there between a guy ranked 11th and a guy ranked 15th?

That is like picking between Justin Williams and Scott Gomez. Stats age skills similar....which one is going to be the better NHLer in 5 years? Well, it is close. The gap isn't huge.
 
Status
Not open for further replies.

Ad

Upcoming events

Ad

Ad

-->