That's an interesting one to me, particularly thinking of the 2007 Red Wings as 2007 was Avery's best season. If I had to guess, Detroit with Avery in tow doesn't sign Cleary in 2006. Cleary was good for Detroit in the 2007 playoffs so I'm not sure that Avery makes a big difference, though Detroit could have used someone like him. I also wonder what he would have been like once Lidstrom was the only member of the old guard left in 2007. I would guess that Avery would have ended up as a better, but less well known, player.
Cleary signed a two-way in 2005 after a successful PTO, where the Red Wings had a small handful of NHL experienced guys trying out.
I'm not sure I agree that Cleary would've been the odd man out. He had a really good camp, and a big fan in Mike Babcock, so the Wings probably still sign him as affordable depth and probably end up waiving/demoting a spare part lower on the depth chart like #13F Mark Mowers or rarely dressed #8D Jamie Rivers.
But it's also possible the Red Wings end up in the same spot that allowed for Cleary to try out anyway, considering:
-Avery and Jason Williams both kind of had the same value as young (3 months apart) waiver exempt guys that were right on the NHL bubble. If the Wings still make the Schneider trade but keep Avery, it's probably a strong possibility that it's Williams going to the Kings instead. So they could've gone into 05-06 with Avery instead of Williams, thus still leaving the possibility for signing Cleary.
-IIRC, Avery played some center in Detroit, so it's possible that with him in tow for 03-04 they don't see as much of Mark Mowers. Or, if Mowers is still around after the lockout, he's on the depth chart as an experienced AHLer for GR and the NHL club is still looking for warm bodies at the bottom of the line-up. Even from the get go that season, it seemed that Mowers was lower on the depth chart than Cleary and could eventually find himself in GR.
Also:
-Do they still sign Samuelsson? He was signed during training camp, a couple weeks before Cleary was offered a contract.
-Franzen was exempt from waivers. Maybe they consider sending him to GR to start?
-If the Red Wings ended up having one more injury at forward other than Yzerman coming out of the 05 training camp even with Avery added to the complete 05-06 roster, Cleary probably still makes the NHL roster and at some point forces them to waive someone else once everyone is healthy.
As for 06-07, depending on what kind of player Avery is or what his 05-06 season looks like, he maybe re-sings for cheaper than he did with LA and then you probably just have no failed Greg Johnson signing or failed Brad Norton enforcer experiment, and Filppula's ascension to being a regular on the roster comes if (or actually when) Kopecky goes down long term. Avery probably would've been interesting in that series against the Ducks. Imagine him driving Pronger and Niedermayer nuts enough for them to want to slam his head into the glass instead of Holmstrom's...