Not much love for Kaut a little surprising. Newhook I get cuz higher upside but to me Kaut is a guaranteed nhler that still has legit upside as well. Timmins has too many questions to even consider here for me
It's weird... I think people are just looking at Kauts numbers in the AHL and considering it a down year while Newhook is new toy that everyone has fresh in there mind.
In reality Kaut's D+1 season was actually pretty solid overall, as playing in the AHL as a 19 year old in general is pretty uncommon and his production lined up fairly well with what most 18 year olds do in the AHL as rookies. Not to mention he played on a very offensively starved team that struggled as a group to score goals and especially on the PP. He didn't have much opportunity at all to produce any garbage points or secondary points and most of the points he got were Primary points.
I also think maybe as a fan base our expectations are a little different because of course what Mikko did in the AHL a couple years ago is still fairly fresh in our minds.
Example being this list year. It's of all 19 year old rookies in the AHL and the production they had in that season. Specifically this list is ranked by primary points per game played.
Name | Season | Pos | Team | Age | GP | G/GP | A1/GP | A2/GP | P1/GP | P/GP |
Mikko Rantanen | 2015-2016 | LW | SA | 18.878 | 52 | 0.46 | 0.42 | 0.27 | 0.88 | 1.15 |
William Nylander | 2015-2016 | C | TOR | 19.373 | 38 | 0.47 | 0.39 | 0.32 | 0.87 | 1.18 |
Jakub Vrana | 2015-2016 | LW | HER | 19.546 | 36 | 0.44 | 0.25 | 0.25 | 0.69 | 0.94 |
Kyle Palmieri | 2010-2011 | RW | SYR | 19.62 | 62 | 0.47 | 0.23 | 0.13 | 0.69 | 0.82 |
Ryan Nugent-Hopkins | 2012-2013 | C | OKC | 19.428 | 19 | 0.42 | 0.26 | 0.37 | 0.68 | 1.05 |
Christian Fischer | 2016-2017 | RW | TUC | 19.42 | 57 | 0.35 | 0.3 | 0.18 | 0.65 | 0.82 |
Martin Necas | 2018-2019 | C | CHA | 19.666 | 64 | 0.25 | 0.3 | 0.27 | 0.55 | 0.81 |
Kevin Fiala | 2015-2016 | LW | MIL | 19.149 | 66 | 0.27 | 0.27 | 0.21 | 0.55 | 0.76 |
Filip Forsberg | 2013-2014 | RW | MIL | 19.091 | 47 | 0.32 | 0.23 | 0.17 | 0.55 | 0.72 |
Vladislav Kamenev | 2015-2016 | C | MIL | 19.091 | 57 | 0.26 | 0.26 | 0.12 | 0.53 | 0.65 |
Jack Roslovic | 2016-2017 | C | MB | 19.628 | 65 | 0.2 | 0.28 | 0.26 | 0.48 | 0.74 |
Kasperi Kapanen | 2015-2016 | RW | TOR | 19.146 | 44 | 0.2 | 0.27 | 0.09 | 0.48 | 0.57 |
Filip Zadina | 2018-2019 | RW | GR | 18.801 | 59 | 0.27 | 0.2 | 0.12 | 0.47 | 0.59 |
Sonny Milano | 2015-2016 | LW | LE | 19.343 | 54 | 0.26 | 0.2 | 0.11 | 0.46 | 0.57 |
Janne Kuokkanen | 2017-2018 | C | CHA | 19.31 | 60 | 0.18 | 0.27 | 0.22 | 0.45 | 0.67 |
Jeremy Morin | 2010-2011 | RW | RFD | 19.417 | 22 | 0.36 | 0.09 | 0.09 | 0.45 | 0.55 |
Brandon Pirri | 2010-2011 | C | RFD | 19.434 | 70 | 0.17 | 0.27 | 0.17 | 0.44 | 0.61 |
Jacob Josefson | 2010-2011 | C | ALB | 19.54 | 18 | 0.17 | 0.28 | 0.22 | 0.44 | 0.67 |
Eeli Tolvanen | 2018-2019 | F | MIL | 19.401 | 58 | 0.26 | 0.17 | 0.17 | 0.43 | 0.6 |
J.T. Miller | 2012-2013 | C | CT | 19.508 | 42 | 0.19 | 0.19 | 0.17 | 0.38 | 0.55 |
Kristian Vesalainen | 2018-2019 | LW | MB | 19.291 | 22 | 0.18 | 0.18 | 0.23 | 0.36 | 0.59 |
Adrian Kempe | 2015-2016 | LW | ONT | 19.004 | 55 | 0.2 | 0.16 | 0.15 | 0.36 | 0.51 |
Martin Kaut | 2018-2019 | RW | COL | 18.955 | 63 | 0.19 | 0.16 | 0.06 | 0.35 | 0.41 |
Mika Zibanejad | 2012-2013 | C | BNG | 19.412 | 23 | 0.17 | 0.17 | 0.13 | 0.35 | 0.48 |
Stefan Matteau | 2013-2014 | C | ALB | 19.56 | 67 | 0.19 | 0.13 | 0.06 | 0.33 | 0.39 |
Denis Gurianov | 2016-2017 | RW | TEX | 19.275 | 57 | 0.21 | 0.11 | 0.16 | 0.32 | 0.47 |
Tomas Jurco | 2012-2013 | LW | GR | 19.716 | 74 | 0.19 | 0.12 | 0.07 | 0.31 | 0.38 |
Klim Kostin | 2018-2019 | RW | SA | 19.365 | 66 | 0.15 | 0.14 | 0.08 | 0.29 | 0.36 |
Lias Andersson | 2017-2018 | C | HFD | 18.924 | 25 | 0.2 | 0.08 | 0.28 | 0.28 | 0.56 |
Jacob de la Rose | 2014-2015 | C | HAM | 19.324 | 37 | 0.16 | 0.11 | 0.03 | 0.27 | 0.3 |
Alexander Avtsin | 2010-2011 | RW | HAM | 19.494 | 58 | 0.09 | 0.16 | 0.1 | 0.24 | 0.34 |
Alexander Nylander | 2017-2018 | RW | RCH | 19.54 | 51 | 0.16 | 0.06 | 0.31 | 0.22 | 0.53 |
William Carrier | 2014-2015 | LW | RCH | 19.738 | 63 | 0.11 | 0.11 | 0.11 | 0.22 | 0.33 |
Nathan Walker | 2013-2014 | LW | HER | 19.603 | 43 | 0.12 | 0.09 | 0.05 | 0.21 | 0.26 |
Jerry D'Amigo | 2010-2011 | LW | TOR | 19.571 | 43 | 0.12 | 0.09 | 0.14 | 0.21 | 0.35 |
Tage Thompson | 2016-2017 | C | CHI | 18.878 | 16 | 0.06 | 0.06 | 0 | 0.12 | 0.12 |
Nicklas Jensen | 2012-2013 | LW | CHI | 19.529 | 20 | 0.1 | 0 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.2 |
Dominik Uher | 2012-2013 | LW | WBS | 19.707 | 53 | 0.08 | 0.02 | 0.04 | 0.09 | 0.13 |
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Pretty close to the middle of the pack for Kaut. Comparable numbers to Zibanejad, Kempe, and Miller while also being younger then all of them for that rookie season.
I'd say it is definitely still fair to say Kaut has a great chance at being at least a Top 9 forward and with his shot and skating I think as he matures more and gets a good grasp of the NHL game I think he'll end up a solid complimentary Top 6 forward. I feel like this comparison gets beaten to death a lot around here but he really does compare a bunch to what Jakob Silfverberg is right now in the NHL. I think Kaut can become a 25G, 50 Point complimentary Top 6 winger for us.
I like his combination of floor plus ceiling more than I like Newhooks chances of hitting his true ceiling and his chances of busting.
For me I have 3. Timmins, 4. Kaut, and 5. Newhook.