HFAvs Prospect Ranking Poll #3

[McMetal]

Bowen Byram breezes to the #2 spot with no competition. Drew Helleson added to the poll.

Position	Player	Draft	2019 Rank	2018 Rank	Change
RD	Cale Makar	2017 #4	1 (96.7%)	1	0
LD	Bowen Byram	2019 #4	2 (98.1%)	-	-

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Click to read more...

 

[Pierce Hawthorne]

Under the assumption he's back and 100% healthy in September...


Connor Timmins for me. Not even close either. Every time I watch him play he reminds me of a younger Ryan Suter and if he can wind up even half as good we have ourselves one heck of a player.

 

[McMetal]

Now's where it gets interesting. I'm going with Timmins here, because if he really is healthy he has the highest ceiling of any prospect left on the board. I really believe in his skill set and potential. I think he's been written off by too many folks here, and he'll prove some doubters wrong even though I think he likely starts in the AHL to get back up to game shape.

Add Kovalenko for me, he's a real dark horse once his KHL contract is up.

 

[BoxOfChocolates]

I’m going Newhook, I think he’s got better upside than Kaut and have to give him the benefit of the doubt over Timmins due to health.

 

[Avsboy]

Newhook. Add Meloche

 

[Pierce Hawthorne]

Also.... add Kovalenko

 

[RoyIsALegend]

Newhook.

Add Meloche.

 

[tigervixxxen]

As I said in the other thread, Timmins never was a blue chip prospect to me so even though I’m giving his recovery the benefit of the doubt he doesn’t slot in here for me.

After the draft it was very close to me between Newhook and Kaut, I was considering giving Newhook the nod based on upside. After dev camp I’ve changed my mind, there’s a gulf in polish and readiness between the two plus Kaut has upside that’s easy to forget. He has the size, shot, hands and looked a touch faster in the camp. Newhook I’ve always felt was a bit raw, he has the ability to take very quick steps but he still has to take them. So Kaut is getting the vote for me.

Add Kovalenko

 

[missionAvs]

To me, Newhook's got the highest upside so him. Add Meloche.

 

[cgf]

Add Helleson-classic

 

[McMetal]

As I said in the other thread, Timmins never was a blue chip prospect to me so even though I’m giving his recovery the benefit of the doubt he doesn’t slot in here for me.

After the draft it was very close to me between Newhook and Kaut, I was considering giving Newhook the nod based on upside. After dev camp I’ve changed my mind, there’s a gulf in polish and readiness between the two plus Kaut has upside that’s easy to forget. He has the size, shot, hands and looked a touch faster in the camp. Newhook I’ve always felt was a bit raw, he has the ability to take very quick steps but he still has to take them. So Kaut is getting the vote for me.

Add Kovalenko

Yeah, I have Kaut over Newhook as well, I still very much believe in his upside as a Landy-lite on the second line doing a lot of similar style dirty work along the boards and in the defensive zone.

 

[PAZ]

Newhook, he's the safest bet.

I still like Timmins and i'm not writing him off, but prospects that lose a full year of development don't have a great track record. I still believe he has a realistic chance of becoming a top 4 defenseman, but he needs to prove it.

 

[AvsRobin]

I find it a bit odd how the Timmins hype basically has gone up after losing an entire year with injury. People are penciling him in our top 4 within near future after missing an entire year?

 

[RoyIsALegend]

I find it a bit odd how the Timmins hype basically has gone up after losing an entire year with injury. People are penciling him in our top 4 within near future after missing an entire year?

He’s healthy and had a great rookie camp last week.

Looked better than others despite not playing a game in 14 months. Encouraging.

 

[AvsRobin]

He’s healthy and had a great rookie camp last week.

Looked better than others despite not playing a game in 14 months. Encouraging.

That is obviously good news, but he feels more hyped now then he did a year ago. But maybe my memory is bad.

 

[RoyIsALegend]

That is obviously good news, but he feels more hyped now then he did a year ago. But maybe my memory is bad.

A year ago, he had already been concussed and out of action for 2 months. Lots of question marks. He wasn’t skating.

Now, he’s healthy and instantly showed a superior level at the scrimmage game to end camp last week. Reviews of him said his skating showed no rust and his decision making/reading of the game just as good as always.

I’m being cautious about him, but that’s the reason for the optimism rising again.

 

[AllAboutAvs]

Timmins for me. He is healthy so I go by his upside.

Add Meloche, Hellison, and Kovalenko.

 

[cgf]

Even if Timmins has recovered, has he been improving his skating this past year? That was where he needed the most work to successfully play his game at the NHL level even before this happened.

 

[AllAboutAvs]

The next one will be tough for me between Kaut and Newhook. They are very close to each others.

 

[Chiarelli]

Not much love for Kaut a little surprising. Newhook I get cuz higher upside but to me Kaut is a guaranteed nhler that still has legit upside as well. Timmins has too many questions to even consider here for me

 

[Congo Jack]

Bit tougher, but went with Timmins.

Add Meloche.

 

[Pierce Hawthorne]

Not much love for Kaut a little surprising. Newhook I get cuz higher upside but to me Kaut is a guaranteed nhler that still has legit upside as well. Timmins has too many questions to even consider here for me

It's weird... I think people are just looking at Kauts numbers in the AHL and considering it a down year while Newhook is new toy that everyone has fresh in there mind.


In reality Kaut's D+1 season was actually pretty solid overall, as playing in the AHL as a 19 year old in general is pretty uncommon and his production lined up fairly well with what most 18 year olds do in the AHL as rookies. Not to mention he played on a very offensively starved team that struggled as a group to score goals and especially on the PP. He didn't have much opportunity at all to produce any garbage points or secondary points and most of the points he got were Primary points.


I also think maybe as a fan base our expectations are a little different because of course what Mikko did in the AHL a couple years ago is still fairly fresh in our minds.


Example being this list year. It's of all 19 year old rookies in the AHL and the production they had in that season. Specifically this list is ranked by primary points per game played.

Name	Season	Pos	Team	Age	GP	G/GP	A1/GP	A2/GP	P1/GP	P/GP
Mikko Rantanen	2015-2016	LW	SA	18.878	52	0.46	0.42	0.27	0.88	1.15
William Nylander	2015-2016	C	TOR	19.373	38	0.47	0.39	0.32	0.87	1.18
Jakub Vrana	2015-2016	LW	HER	19.546	36	0.44	0.25	0.25	0.69	0.94
Kyle Palmieri	2010-2011	RW	SYR	19.62	62	0.47	0.23	0.13	0.69	0.82
Ryan Nugent-Hopkins	2012-2013	C	OKC	19.428	19	0.42	0.26	0.37	0.68	1.05
Christian Fischer	2016-2017	RW	TUC	19.42	57	0.35	0.3	0.18	0.65	0.82
Martin Necas	2018-2019	C	CHA	19.666	64	0.25	0.3	0.27	0.55	0.81
Kevin Fiala	2015-2016	LW	MIL	19.149	66	0.27	0.27	0.21	0.55	0.76
Filip Forsberg	2013-2014	RW	MIL	19.091	47	0.32	0.23	0.17	0.55	0.72
Vladislav Kamenev	2015-2016	C	MIL	19.091	57	0.26	0.26	0.12	0.53	0.65
Jack Roslovic	2016-2017	C	MB	19.628	65	0.2	0.28	0.26	0.48	0.74
Kasperi Kapanen	2015-2016	RW	TOR	19.146	44	0.2	0.27	0.09	0.48	0.57
Filip Zadina	2018-2019	RW	GR	18.801	59	0.27	0.2	0.12	0.47	0.59
Sonny Milano	2015-2016	LW	LE	19.343	54	0.26	0.2	0.11	0.46	0.57
Janne Kuokkanen	2017-2018	C	CHA	19.31	60	0.18	0.27	0.22	0.45	0.67
Jeremy Morin	2010-2011	RW	RFD	19.417	22	0.36	0.09	0.09	0.45	0.55
Brandon Pirri	2010-2011	C	RFD	19.434	70	0.17	0.27	0.17	0.44	0.61
Jacob Josefson	2010-2011	C	ALB	19.54	18	0.17	0.28	0.22	0.44	0.67
Eeli Tolvanen	2018-2019	F	MIL	19.401	58	0.26	0.17	0.17	0.43	0.6
J.T. Miller	2012-2013	C	CT	19.508	42	0.19	0.19	0.17	0.38	0.55
Kristian Vesalainen	2018-2019	LW	MB	19.291	22	0.18	0.18	0.23	0.36	0.59
Adrian Kempe	2015-2016	LW	ONT	19.004	55	0.2	0.16	0.15	0.36	0.51
Martin Kaut	2018-2019	RW	COL	18.955	63	0.19	0.16	0.06	0.35	0.41
Mika Zibanejad	2012-2013	C	BNG	19.412	23	0.17	0.17	0.13	0.35	0.48
Stefan Matteau	2013-2014	C	ALB	19.56	67	0.19	0.13	0.06	0.33	0.39
Denis Gurianov	2016-2017	RW	TEX	19.275	57	0.21	0.11	0.16	0.32	0.47
Tomas Jurco	2012-2013	LW	GR	19.716	74	0.19	0.12	0.07	0.31	0.38
Klim Kostin	2018-2019	RW	SA	19.365	66	0.15	0.14	0.08	0.29	0.36
Lias Andersson	2017-2018	C	HFD	18.924	25	0.2	0.08	0.28	0.28	0.56
Jacob de la Rose	2014-2015	C	HAM	19.324	37	0.16	0.11	0.03	0.27	0.3
Alexander Avtsin	2010-2011	RW	HAM	19.494	58	0.09	0.16	0.1	0.24	0.34
Alexander Nylander	2017-2018	RW	RCH	19.54	51	0.16	0.06	0.31	0.22	0.53
William Carrier	2014-2015	LW	RCH	19.738	63	0.11	0.11	0.11	0.22	0.33
Nathan Walker	2013-2014	LW	HER	19.603	43	0.12	0.09	0.05	0.21	0.26
Jerry D'Amigo	2010-2011	LW	TOR	19.571	43	0.12	0.09	0.14	0.21	0.35
Tage Thompson	2016-2017	C	CHI	18.878	16	0.06	0.06	0	0.12	0.12
Nicklas Jensen	2012-2013	LW	CHI	19.529	20	0.1	0	0.1	0.1	0.2
Dominik Uher	2012-2013	LW	WBS	19.707	53	0.08	0.02	0.04	0.09	0.13

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Pretty close to the middle of the pack for Kaut. Comparable numbers to Zibanejad, Kempe, and Miller while also being younger then all of them for that rookie season.


I'd say it is definitely still fair to say Kaut has a great chance at being at least a Top 9 forward and with his shot and skating I think as he matures more and gets a good grasp of the NHL game I think he'll end up a solid complimentary Top 6 forward. I feel like this comparison gets beaten to death a lot around here but he really does compare a bunch to what Jakob Silfverberg is right now in the NHL. I think Kaut can become a 25G, 50 Point complimentary Top 6 winger for us.

I like his combination of floor plus ceiling more than I like Newhooks chances of hitting his true ceiling and his chances of busting.


For me I have 3. Timmins, 4. Kaut, and 5. Newhook.

 

[McMetal]

Just a reminder, vote for one add to the polls per round for now. If you vote for multiples I can't count you.

 

[cgf]

Maybe I fall into the category of under-rating Kaut's ceiling, though I do think he has legit top 6 upside...and not jsut quality middle-6er potential...but I don't think one needs to under-rate Kaut to think that Newhook's ceiling is higher if his skating allows him to separate at the highest level

 

[flyfysher]

Add Meloche.