HFAvs Prospect Ranking Poll #3

[AnimalMother73]

Timmons b/c I want the best top four of all time. Add Meloche

 

[FreshFitted67]

Kaut for me. Not the greatest AHL season but at least he's on his way to being decent middle 6 NHLer.

Add Meloche

 

[ASmileyFace]

Shiny new toy syndrome with Newhook is strong here.

I also value proven production over potential generally. Newhook has got that potential, but Kaut makes the team on a callup this season and sticks imo.

 

[Richard88]

Name	Season	Pos	Team	Age	GP	G/GP	A1/GP	A2/GP	P1/GP	P/GP
Mikko Rantanen	2015-2016	LW	SA	18.878	52	0.46	0.42	0.27	0.88	1.15
William Nylander	2015-2016	C	TOR	19.373	38	0.47	0.39	0.32	0.87	1.18
Jakub Vrana	2015-2016	LW	HER	19.546	36	0.44	0.25	0.25	0.69	0.94
Kyle Palmieri	2010-2011	RW	SYR	19.62	62	0.47	0.23	0.13	0.69	0.82
Ryan Nugent-Hopkins	2012-2013	C	OKC	19.428	19	0.42	0.26	0.37	0.68	1.05
Christian Fischer	2016-2017	RW	TUC	19.42	57	0.35	0.3	0.18	0.65	0.82
Martin Necas	2018-2019	C	CHA	19.666	64	0.25	0.3	0.27	0.55	0.81
Kevin Fiala	2015-2016	LW	MIL	19.149	66	0.27	0.27	0.21	0.55	0.76
Filip Forsberg	2013-2014	RW	MIL	19.091	47	0.32	0.23	0.17	0.55	0.72
Vladislav Kamenev	2015-2016	C	MIL	19.091	57	0.26	0.26	0.12	0.53	0.65
Jack Roslovic	2016-2017	C	MB	19.628	65	0.2	0.28	0.26	0.48	0.74
Kasperi Kapanen	2015-2016	RW	TOR	19.146	44	0.2	0.27	0.09	0.48	0.57
Filip Zadina	2018-2019	RW	GR	18.801	59	0.27	0.2	0.12	0.47	0.59
Sonny Milano	2015-2016	LW	LE	19.343	54	0.26	0.2	0.11	0.46	0.57
Janne Kuokkanen	2017-2018	C	CHA	19.31	60	0.18	0.27	0.22	0.45	0.67
Jeremy Morin	2010-2011	RW	RFD	19.417	22	0.36	0.09	0.09	0.45	0.55
Brandon Pirri	2010-2011	C	RFD	19.434	70	0.17	0.27	0.17	0.44	0.61
Jacob Josefson	2010-2011	C	ALB	19.54	18	0.17	0.28	0.22	0.44	0.67
Eeli Tolvanen	2018-2019	F	MIL	19.401	58	0.26	0.17	0.17	0.43	0.6
J.T. Miller	2012-2013	C	CT	19.508	42	0.19	0.19	0.17	0.38	0.55
Kristian Vesalainen	2018-2019	LW	MB	19.291	22	0.18	0.18	0.23	0.36	0.59
Adrian Kempe	2015-2016	LW	ONT	19.004	55	0.2	0.16	0.15	0.36	0.51
Martin Kaut	2018-2019	RW	COL	18.955	63	0.19	0.16	0.06	0.35	0.41
Mika Zibanejad	2012-2013	C	BNG	19.412	23	0.17	0.17	0.13	0.35	0.48
Stefan Matteau	2013-2014	C	ALB	19.56	67	0.19	0.13	0.06	0.33	0.39
Denis Gurianov	2016-2017	RW	TEX	19.275	57	0.21	0.11	0.16	0.32	0.47
Tomas Jurco	2012-2013	LW	GR	19.716	74	0.19	0.12	0.07	0.31	0.38
Klim Kostin	2018-2019	RW	SA	19.365	66	0.15	0.14	0.08	0.29	0.36
Lias Andersson	2017-2018	C	HFD	18.924	25	0.2	0.08	0.28	0.28	0.56
Jacob de la Rose	2014-2015	C	HAM	19.324	37	0.16	0.11	0.03	0.27	0.3
Alexander Avtsin	2010-2011	RW	HAM	19.494	58	0.09	0.16	0.1	0.24	0.34
Alexander Nylander	2017-2018	RW	RCH	19.54	51	0.16	0.06	0.31	0.22	0.53
William Carrier	2014-2015	LW	RCH	19.738	63	0.11	0.11	0.11	0.22	0.33
Nathan Walker	2013-2014	LW	HER	19.603	43	0.12	0.09	0.05	0.21	0.26
Jerry D'Amigo	2010-2011	LW	TOR	19.571	43	0.12	0.09	0.14	0.21	0.35
Tage Thompson	2016-2017	C	CHI	18.878	16	0.06	0.06	0	0.12	0.12
Nicklas Jensen	2012-2013	LW	CHI	19.529	20	0.1	0	0.1	0.1	0.2
Dominik Uher	2012-2013	LW	WBS	19.707	53	0.08	0.02	0.04	0.09	0.13

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Interesting seeing Kamenev so high up that list. I wonder what the plan is with him this season. Darkhorse 3C?

Landeskog - Mackinnon - Rantanen
Burakovsky --- Kadri ------ Donskoi
Jost ---------- Kamenev --- Compher
Wilson ------ Bellemare --- Calvert
(Nieto)

 

[Gabe the Babe]

Voted Newhook ahead of Timmins. Even both healthy Newhook has the highest ceiling. I still remember when he was a top 5 prospect. And to me I don’t think he did anything to deserve falling aside from not playing in the CHL.

If Meloche is still technically a prospect add him.

 

[avsfan09]

Shiny new toy syndrome with Newhook is strong here.

I also value proven production over potential generally. Newhook has got that potential, but Kaut makes the team on a callup this season and sticks imo.

None of those guys are proven to be productive so I don't follow your logic here at all.

As for the poll I think Newhook has 60 pt upside. Kaut I doesn't seem to have the ceiling imo.

 

[Balthazar]

You guys are depressing with Kaut and Timmins ahead of Newhook. Not that I think you're wrong, but I sure hope that Newhook has a higher upside than a #4D or a middle 6 winger.

 

[Chiarelli]

It's weird... I think people are just looking at Kauts numbers in the AHL and considering it a down year while Newhook is new toy that everyone has fresh in there mind.


In reality Kaut's D+1 season was actually pretty solid overall, as playing in the AHL as a 19 year old in general is pretty uncommon and his production lined up fairly well with what most 18 year olds do in the AHL as rookies. Not to mention he played on a very offensively starved team that struggled as a group to score goals and especially on the PP. He didn't have much opportunity at all to produce any garbage points or secondary points and most of the points he got were Primary points.


I also think maybe as a fan base our expectations are a little different because of course what Mikko did in the AHL a couple years ago is still fairly fresh in our minds.


Example being this list year. It's of all 19 year old rookies in the AHL and the production they had in that season. Specifically this list is ranked by primary points per game played.

Name	Season	Pos	Team	Age	GP	G/GP	A1/GP	A2/GP	P1/GP	P/GP
Mikko Rantanen	2015-2016	LW	SA	18.878	52	0.46	0.42	0.27	0.88	1.15
William Nylander	2015-2016	C	TOR	19.373	38	0.47	0.39	0.32	0.87	1.18
Jakub Vrana	2015-2016	LW	HER	19.546	36	0.44	0.25	0.25	0.69	0.94
Kyle Palmieri	2010-2011	RW	SYR	19.62	62	0.47	0.23	0.13	0.69	0.82
Ryan Nugent-Hopkins	2012-2013	C	OKC	19.428	19	0.42	0.26	0.37	0.68	1.05
Christian Fischer	2016-2017	RW	TUC	19.42	57	0.35	0.3	0.18	0.65	0.82
Martin Necas	2018-2019	C	CHA	19.666	64	0.25	0.3	0.27	0.55	0.81
Kevin Fiala	2015-2016	LW	MIL	19.149	66	0.27	0.27	0.21	0.55	0.76
Filip Forsberg	2013-2014	RW	MIL	19.091	47	0.32	0.23	0.17	0.55	0.72
Vladislav Kamenev	2015-2016	C	MIL	19.091	57	0.26	0.26	0.12	0.53	0.65
Jack Roslovic	2016-2017	C	MB	19.628	65	0.2	0.28	0.26	0.48	0.74
Kasperi Kapanen	2015-2016	RW	TOR	19.146	44	0.2	0.27	0.09	0.48	0.57
Filip Zadina	2018-2019	RW	GR	18.801	59	0.27	0.2	0.12	0.47	0.59
Sonny Milano	2015-2016	LW	LE	19.343	54	0.26	0.2	0.11	0.46	0.57
Janne Kuokkanen	2017-2018	C	CHA	19.31	60	0.18	0.27	0.22	0.45	0.67
Jeremy Morin	2010-2011	RW	RFD	19.417	22	0.36	0.09	0.09	0.45	0.55
Brandon Pirri	2010-2011	C	RFD	19.434	70	0.17	0.27	0.17	0.44	0.61
Jacob Josefson	2010-2011	C	ALB	19.54	18	0.17	0.28	0.22	0.44	0.67
Eeli Tolvanen	2018-2019	F	MIL	19.401	58	0.26	0.17	0.17	0.43	0.6
J.T. Miller	2012-2013	C	CT	19.508	42	0.19	0.19	0.17	0.38	0.55
Kristian Vesalainen	2018-2019	LW	MB	19.291	22	0.18	0.18	0.23	0.36	0.59
Adrian Kempe	2015-2016	LW	ONT	19.004	55	0.2	0.16	0.15	0.36	0.51
Martin Kaut	2018-2019	RW	COL	18.955	63	0.19	0.16	0.06	0.35	0.41
Mika Zibanejad	2012-2013	C	BNG	19.412	23	0.17	0.17	0.13	0.35	0.48
Stefan Matteau	2013-2014	C	ALB	19.56	67	0.19	0.13	0.06	0.33	0.39
Denis Gurianov	2016-2017	RW	TEX	19.275	57	0.21	0.11	0.16	0.32	0.47
Tomas Jurco	2012-2013	LW	GR	19.716	74	0.19	0.12	0.07	0.31	0.38
Klim Kostin	2018-2019	RW	SA	19.365	66	0.15	0.14	0.08	0.29	0.36
Lias Andersson	2017-2018	C	HFD	18.924	25	0.2	0.08	0.28	0.28	0.56
Jacob de la Rose	2014-2015	C	HAM	19.324	37	0.16	0.11	0.03	0.27	0.3
Alexander Avtsin	2010-2011	RW	HAM	19.494	58	0.09	0.16	0.1	0.24	0.34
Alexander Nylander	2017-2018	RW	RCH	19.54	51	0.16	0.06	0.31	0.22	0.53
William Carrier	2014-2015	LW	RCH	19.738	63	0.11	0.11	0.11	0.22	0.33
Nathan Walker	2013-2014	LW	HER	19.603	43	0.12	0.09	0.05	0.21	0.26
Jerry D'Amigo	2010-2011	LW	TOR	19.571	43	0.12	0.09	0.14	0.21	0.35
Tage Thompson	2016-2017	C	CHI	18.878	16	0.06	0.06	0	0.12	0.12
Nicklas Jensen	2012-2013	LW	CHI	19.529	20	0.1	0	0.1	0.1	0.2
Dominik Uher	2012-2013	LW	WBS	19.707	53	0.08	0.02	0.04	0.09	0.13

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Pretty close to the middle of the pack for Kaut. Comparable numbers to Zibanejad, Kempe, and Miller while also being younger then all of them for that rookie season.


I'd say it is definitely still fair to say Kaut has a great chance at being at least a Top 9 forward and with his shot and skating I think as he matures more and gets a good grasp of the NHL game I think he'll end up a solid complimentary Top 6 forward. I feel like this comparison gets beaten to death a lot around here but he really does compare a bunch to what Jakob Silfverberg is right now in the NHL. I think Kaut can become a 25G, 50 Point complimentary Top 6 winger for us.

I like his combination of floor plus ceiling more than I like Newhooks chances of hitting his true ceiling and his chances of busting.


For me I have 3. Timmins, 4. Kaut, and 5. Newhook.

Considering Rantanen and nylander have similar stats I’m willing to guarantee you can apply the same handicap to Kaut’s stats and group him with a few tiers higher guys. I see top 6 for sure

 

[TatteredTornNFrayed]

Newhook.
If I can only add one, then Kamenev.

Timmins is healthy and skating again, but I fear there is still an increased risk of another concussion until he goes through a season or two without another one or any relapses in symptoms.

Again my ranking are an opinion of comparative value, based upon a blend of not just potential, but closeness and probability of reaching this potential.

Before I knew he'd take part in development camp, I had still ranked him at 8th (including expected picks), due to high potential. Now after watching him at camp not only compete, but look pretty good, I would have him around 4th to 6th in value. If he can make it through 6 months of play with no setbacks, I think he likely ends up near the 2nd to 4th spot.

But I can't totally rank as if it never happened and isn't still a risk. Plus there is the lost development time.

 

[John Mandalorian]

Shiny new toy syndrome with Newhook is strong here.

I also value proven production over potential generally. Newhook has got that potential, but Kaut makes the team on a callup this season and sticks imo.

I don't think it's that at all. If Kaut had a more impressive stat line, people would put him over Newhook because that would mean he's closer to the NHL than Newhook. It also doesn't help that the only noteworthy player coming from the AHL in a good while is Rantanen. And since his stats are well below Mikko's, that leaves room for more doubt...whether it's fair or not.

 

[Pierce Hawthorne]

You guys are depressing with Kaut and Timmins ahead of Newhook. Not that I think you're wrong, but I sure hope that Newhook has a higher upside than a #4D or a middle 6 winger.

Suggesting Timmins upside is that of a #4D is not accurate at all.


Timmins hal #1D upside. I dont think he hits that level but he has that ability. With his size and skating ability combined with high end IQ on both ends of the ice he could if everything went well be a #1D. No doubt in my mind and I think the Avs look at it that way as well.

Now I'm no expecting that from him. I am expecting/hoping for more along the lines of a #2 guy guy who's great defensively and can add some offense as well, similar to what Brett Pesce or Jeff Petry are now.


And with Kaut it's more of the fact I see him as at least a Top 9 guy with his skill set and an upside of a quality 2nd line winger. Whereas with Newhook I have legitimate concerns about him busting completely and his ultimate upside is only that of a 2C IMO.

 

[Patagonia]

Newhook.

Ranked a Top 10 prospect in a very strong Forward draft. He has some elite skills which were downplayed due to his level of competition. He has the highest upside without evidence of injury.

Kaut would be the next choice, he didn’t have great AHL numbers. This could be due to lack of C prospects. Timmins dropped after missing 14 months of playing and this can’t be overlooked.

Add: Meloche + Kamenev

 

[RoyIsALegend]

Looks like Newhook has this one wrapped up.

Timmins vs Kaut should be a bloodbath, it’s going to be extremely close.

 

[henchman21]

Call me crazy, but this is where the first drop off really is and it is pretty significant. Timmins is probably the highest end out of the players, but has huge question marks (if those questions weren't there, he'd be right up at the top). Newhook probably has the 2nd highest upside, but there are questions and a lot of development to go. Kaut has legit upside questions and polish questions along with a first season that was pretty mediocre. Bowers is probably the closest to being ready while still offering 2nd line upside. This is a mixed bag between the four. I lean Timmins based on upside as I'd rather lean to talent than safety.

 

[TruePowerSlave]

Newhook

Next Kaut and then Timmins. Would probably have Conor 3rd on my list, but until Timmins proves he can play a real game and look good doing it I just can't place him that high.

 

[Ivan13]

Call me crazy, but this is where the first drop off really is and it is pretty significant. Timmins is probably the highest end out of the players, but has huge question marks (if those questions weren't there, he'd be right up at the top). Newhook probably has the 2nd highest upside, but there are questions and a lot of development to go. Kaut has legit upside questions and polish questions along with a first season that was pretty mediocre. Bowers is probably the closest to being ready while still offering 2nd line upside. This is a mixed bag between the four. I lean Timmins based on upside as I'd rather lean to talent than safety.

Timmins has the highest upside for sure, and I'd say by far as at his best he can be a borderline #1D. But yeah, health concerns make me vote for Newhook.

 

[RoyIsALegend]

Call me crazy, but this is where the first drop off really is and it is pretty significant. Timmins is probably the highest end out of the players, but has huge question marks (if those questions weren't there, he'd be right up at the top). Newhook probably has the 2nd highest upside, but there are questions and a lot of development to go. Kaut has legit upside questions and polish questions along with a first season that was pretty mediocre. Bowers is probably the closest to being ready while still offering 2nd line upside. This is a mixed bag between the four. I lean Timmins based on upside as I'd rather lean to talent than safety.

Does Helleson warrant inclusion in this second tier of Newhook/Kaut/Timmins/Bowers?

 

[chet1926]

Shiny new toy syndrome with Newhook is strong here.

I also value proven production over potential generally. Newhook has got that potential, but Kaut makes the team on a callup this season and sticks imo.

Not sure I agree. Newhook has far greater potential than Kaut. Potential is how I view prospects. Whomever has more, gets a higher rating.

I don't even have Kaut in the top 5. I've got Makar, Byram, Newhook, Timmins, Bowers.

Kaut to me has shown nothing to this point. An average season last year, I know his training wasn't what he wanted the summer prior. But I've never been high on him so he is really going to have to have a real uptick in play this year for me to rate him any higher.

 

[RockyMtnRedhawk]

Newhook, add Meloche

Going based on upside/potential here, so for me it was between Newhook and Timmins. As for the Newhook/Kaut debate, both were drafted in the same spot in strong draft years. Newhook had the higher pedigree going into their draft years (Newhook was projected to go higher than 16, and Kaut was projected at or lower than 16). Kaut had a decent first season, but didn't do enough to make a big jump up when it comes to NHL projections in my mind. Don't get me wrong, I like Kaut as a prospect, and I think he'll be a very valuable middle 6 winger, but I think Newhook has the much higher upside.

 

[chet1926]

You guys are depressing with Kaut and Timmins ahead of Newhook. Not that I think you're wrong, but I sure hope that Newhook has a higher upside than a #4D or a middle 6 winger.

Exactly my thoughts Kaut is middle six, IMO more of a 3rd line wing that can play up on occasion and Timmins is middle pairing. Newhook the hope, and goal is/should be top 6 center.

 

[Patagonia]

Exactly my thoughts Kaut is middle six, IMO more of a 3rd line wing that can play up on occasion and Timmins is middle pairing. Newhook the hope, and goal is/should be top 6 center.

Kaut is a tough player to determine.

Could the poor 1Cs in AHL be responsible for his struggles? He played extremely well during International Tourneys. Kind of a mixed opinion on his potential, but playing 3rd Winger is not terrible with Rants/Bura occupying the top 2 lines. Would have liked Jost to stay longer in building some chemistry, but next round would be interesting with Timmins.

 

[S E P H]

Voted Newhook here over Kaut, Alex has more of a development path that needs to take while Kaut plays a pretty pro style of game. However, nobody can deny that Newhook has superior offensive talent with potential and because of that those players are harder to find in the draft over solid two-way wingers like Kaut.

Timmins shouldn't touch the top 5 as far as I am concerned.

 

[cgf]

You guys are depressing with Kaut and Timmins ahead of Newhook. Not that I think you're wrong, but I sure hope that Newhook has a higher upside than a #4D or a middle 6 winger.

Although I've always been a skeptic, Timmins has #3 (maybe even #2) potential, and Kaut can become a legit 2nd liner. So I think you're underestimating Timmins & Kaut's "potential", even if I agree that Newhooks is higher.

 

[henchman21]

Timmins has the highest upside for sure, and I'd say by far as at his best he can be a borderline #1D. But yeah, health concerns make me vote for Newhook.

Which is fair. I could honestly see any of the 4 being voted here depending on preferences.

Does Helleson warrant inclusion in this second tier of Newhook/Kaut/Timmins/Bowers?

I would want to see the offensive upside that I think is there to start being displayed more. Until that point, he's in the next tier. Helleson is a bit of a weird one, and it comes down to faith in your eyes vs seeing results. So many I know think there is something there, it just needs to be built up. The more results oriented you are, the less you see in Helleson.

 

[cgf]

Which is fair. I could honestly see any of the 4 being voted here depending on preferences.



I would want to see the offensive upside that I think is there to start being displayed more. Until that point, he's in the next tier. Helleson is a bit of a weird one, and it comes down to faith in your eyes vs seeing results. So many I know think there is something there, it just needs to be built up. The more results oriented you are, the less you see in Helleson.

Well at least I'll have a new crush once Meloche moves on...