HFAvs Prospect Ranking Poll #10

[tigervixxxen]

Lewis should go before Saigeon. He scored 100 points in his 19 year old season. Saigeon doesn’t even have an NHL contract. I hope he gets one but that’s going to limit the upside and real idea on if he has any sort of path until that happens. I’d vote in Lewis before Shvyrev too.

 

[flyfysher]

Kovalenko has a better chance of being an Avs regular than Greer. I’ve liked Greer’s game for years but the writing is on the wall.

What kind of return would you be looking for in Greer? A pick or a prospect?

 

[tigervixxxen]

What kind of return would you be looking for in Greer? A pick or a prospect?

I can’t imagine much at this point, a similar waiver eligible prospect.

 

[FreshFitted67]

Kaut should be at #3, no offense to Newhook and Timmins, but Kaut's development path is a lot further along and has gone much smoother. Newhook and Timmins are still somewhat question marks (talented ones)

AND... AJG.
He has way better hands than McLeod. Much more talented. Nearly a PPG player in the AHL with toughness and tenacity. Those are good things.

 

[flyfysher]

Kaut should be at #3, no offense to Newhook and Timmins, but Kaut's development path is a lot further along and has gone much smoother. Newhook and Timmins are still somewhat question marks (talented ones)

AND... AJG.
He has way better hands than McLeod. Much more talented. Nearly a PPG player in the AHL with toughness and tenacity. Those are good things.

Well, I wonder if he will ever get his chance then. I just don't see it though with Bednar but he deserves a chance somewhere.

 

[Tweaky]

Kovalenko, add Annunen and Lewis

Greer is likely next for me, but it is hard to see a path for him. The on-ice output in the AHL seems to indicate a future in the NHL, but the NHL play has been lacking....and not just from the limited minutes...he has not earned more time. Add to that what could be indicative of attitude issues (legal troubles are never good for a career that has yet to start). Just not a real positive outlook ATM.

 

[FreshFitted67]

Well, I wonder if he will ever get his chance then. I just don't see it though with Bednar but he deserves a chance somewhere.

Yeah you're right I dont see Bednar giving him a chance... and it doesn't seem like Sakic really wants to either... going out and acquiring Bellemare and such. So silly. Big money (big 4th line money) for 34yr old to just block the young guys. Smh.

If there are any injuries hopefully Kam and AJG seize the opportunities because I believe they have the talent to be contributors.

 

[Pokecheque]

Yeah you're right I dont see Bednar giving him a chance... and it doesn't seem like Sakic really wants to either... going out and acquiring Bellemare and such. So silly. Big money (big 4th line money) for 34yr old to just block the young guys. Smh.

If there are any injuries hopefully Kam and AJG seize the opportunities because I believe they have the talent to be contributors.

Look, I've been as big an advocate of AJG as anyone here, but the ship has sailed. There just isn't anything there in his skill set that really moves the needle in any way. He's not defensively sound enough to be a mainstay on the PK, not offensively savvy enough to really carve out a role on the 4th line, and he hasn't yet learned how to play "heavy hockey" without taking dumb penalties. And that, more than anything, is what has kept him out of the NHL. He hasn't even really reached the same levels Cody McLeod did around the same time in his young career.

The only guy Bellemare is really "blocking" is Kamenev and everyone just needs to face facts--dude has not been consistent enough nor healthy enough to have earned a role on the team. And I'm leaning toward what Henchy is saying...he's not an NHL player. He could yet surprise us but it's mostly wishful thinking at this point.

And $1.8 million dollars AAV is not "big money" for a guy who checks a lot of the boxes the Avs needed going into this offseason. But yes, they have spent a decent amount of cap room for bottom-six players. That's what happens when your draft/development system is still not quite there yet, they had depth issues and had to address them accordingly. They can't do that forever, but for the next couple seasons, they can.

 

[Avs_19]

If Greer, with those hands, beats out Kovalenko then just throw the entire list in the trash!

 

[henchman21]

Look, I've been as big an advocate of AJG as anyone here, but the ship has sailed. There just isn't anything there in his skill set that really moves the needle in any way. He's not defensively sound enough to be a mainstay on the PK, not offensively savvy enough to really carve out a role on the 4th line, and he hasn't yet learned how to play "heavy hockey" without taking dumb penalties. And that, more than anything, is what has kept him out of the NHL. He hasn't even really reached the same levels Cody McLeod did around the same time in his young career.

The only guy Bellemare is really "blocking" is Kamenev and everyone just needs to face facts--dude has not been consistent enough nor healthy enough to have earned a role on the team. And I'm leaning toward what Henchy is saying...he's not an NHL player. He could yet surprise us but it's mostly wishful thinking at this point.

And $1.8 million dollars AAV is not "big money" for a guy who checks a lot of the boxes the Avs needed going into this offseason. But yes, they have spent a decent amount of cap room for bottom-six players. That's what happens when your draft/development system is still not quite there yet, they had depth issues and had to address them accordingly. They can't do that forever, but for the next couple seasons, they can.

100% agree here... if Greer can't play his game without taking penalties, he will never be a NHL player.

 

[FreshFitted67]

Look, I've been as big an advocate of AJG as anyone here, but the ship has sailed. There just isn't anything there in his skill set that really moves the needle in any way. He's not defensively sound enough to be a mainstay on the PK, not offensively savvy enough to really carve out a role on the 4th line, and he hasn't yet learned how to play "heavy hockey" without taking dumb penalties. And that, more than anything, is what has kept him out of the NHL. He hasn't even really reached the same levels Cody McLeod did around the same time in his young career.

The only guy Bellemare is really "blocking" is Kamenev and everyone just needs to face facts--dude has not been consistent enough nor healthy enough to have earned a role on the team. And I'm leaning toward what Henchy is saying...he's not an NHL player. He could yet surprise us but it's mostly wishful thinking at this point.

And $1.8 million dollars AAV is not "big money" for a guy who checks a lot of the boxes the Avs needed going into this offseason. But yes, they have spent a decent amount of cap room for bottom-six players. That's what happens when your draft/development system is still not quite there yet, they had depth issues and had to address them accordingly. They can't do that forever, but for the next couple seasons, they can.

AJG is 22. Just for reference, Pierre Edouard Bellemare was 28 when he broke into the NHL. Let's slow down before we say the ship has sailed.

I agree Greer needs to find a way to not take so many penalties. And yeah PEB is mostly blocking Kamenev.

He's got decent hands and brings some energy though (AJG)

 

[henchman21]

AJG is 22. Just for reference, Pierre Edouard Bellemare was 28 when he broke into the NHL. Let's slow down before we say the ship has sailed.

I agree Greer needs to find a way to not take so many penalties. And yeah PEB is mostly blocking Kamenev.

He's got decent hands and brings some energy though (AJG)

PEB was carving out a nice career in Europe... Greer can and may breakout at some point, but this is his last year with the Avs' org if he doesn't break out.

Hindsight 20/20, he should have returned to the Q for an overage season.

 

[Pokecheque]

AJG is 22. Just for reference, Pierre Edouard Bellemare was 28 when he broke into the NHL. Let's slow down before we say the ship has sailed.

I agree Greer needs to find a way to not take so many penalties. And yeah PEB is mostly blocking Kamenev.

He's got decent hands and brings some energy though

Yes, I think the ship has sailed. Maybe not on Greer's NHL career (though I think it's a long shot at this point) but very likely on his time as a member of the Avs organization. Fairly or not, they just don't seem keen on him. He basically has to force their hand, and he just hasn't done that. Add to that his recent off-ice incident and I'll be extremely surprised if he's there by the start of camp.

Bellemare carved himself out a decent role, one that fits perfectly for the Avs. They needed someone who was good at draws and could take the majority of PK time now that Soda's gone. His underlying numbers for a 4th liner are actually pretty good, although that might be Vegas's system propping them up. He's worth the money so long as age doesn't suddenly hit him hard.

 

[cgf]

PEB was carving out a nice career in Europe... Greer can and may breakout at some point, but this is his last year with the Avs' org if he doesn't break out.

Hindsight 20/20, he should have returned to the Q for an overage season.

I dunno; after stagnating in Boston that stretch of wrecking the Q helped get him back on track, but I dunno how much he would've gained from spending more time there. It certainly felt like the right time for him to take the next step, even though it hasn't worked out as well as we had hoped.

I mean, would another season of wrecking the Q have helped his penalty problems after he realized that he wasn't making the avs as a scorer?

 

[PBhockey]

Hindsight 20/20, he should have returned to the Q for an overage season.

Not sure which player to whom you were referring. You're wrong on both.
Bellemare wasn't ever eligible to play in the Q.
Greer wasn't ever eligible to play an overage year in the Q. He missed it by a few days. I saw many Rampage games in 2017. He wasn't out of place by any stretch.

Edit... My error on Greer. I just checked his birth year. He was eligible. Sorry.

 

[henchman21]

I dunno; after stagnating in Boston that stretch of wrecking the Q helped get him back on track, but I dunno how much he would've gained from spending more time there. It certainly felt like the right time for him to take the next step, even though it hasn't worked out as well as we had hoped.

I mean, would another season of wrecking the Q have helped his penalty problems after he realized that he wasn't making the avs as a scorer?

I think there are two things there... first Greer didn't really wreck the Q, he was just a PPG player. It would have likely helped him get a full season level of conditioning ready for the Avs' expectations. Two, it would have stopped the Avs from themselves. They really like their top young forwards to spend as little time in the AHL as possible. It was pretty clear they really wanted him early in his first ELC season to break through, or get that half season then come up. Instead Greer struggled down the stretch in 16-17 and wasn't able to hit expectations despite a strong AHL start. Which likely soured the staff a bit, and AJ hasn't been able to impress enough early to keep a spot... and seems incapable of toning down his penalty issues. Another season in the Q would have allowed his offense to develop more, then have the Avs erase the 16-17 disappointment season all together. It would have been a different mindset going into 17-18.

It is purely a hindsight 20/20 sort of thing though. That summer, I think nearly every organization would have brought Greer into the fold. Don't fault the Avs there... just something to hopefully learn from.

 

[cgf]

Fair enough, I'm not sure how much his game really would've improved from that extra season, but I take your point about the organization's rush to judgment.

 

[FreshFitted67]

Interesting that this conversation sparked up. I like having this convo.

I really dont think that AJ should have spent any additional time in the Q or that his development path was bad at all. By 21 he was a positive producing, contributing member on an AHL team. That's pretty good. Maybe even a team leader.

I agree the bar fight thing looks bad, but maybe sakic remembers a time when bar fights were commonplace and never even made the papers... I dont know. You might be right. We might see the avs move on from him and maybe include him in a package trade. AJG+2nd for Gusev????

But I wouldn't say the ship has sailed on his career. Lots of young fringe NHLers bounce back and forth between the A and N before they earn a full time spot. I personally think AJ has shown enough to earn another chance and I think a cheap contract and his toughness are valuable, especially in the playoffs.

I think what happened was he took too many penalties for Bednars liking and now Bednar doesn't wanna see him, asked Joe to go get a 4th liner who can win draws without taking penalties. Voila. PEB.

Well I dunno. I can see the reason in that, but personally I wouldn't give a 34 year old guy a 2yr contract. Or that much money to play 8 and 1/2 minutes a night. (But like everybody says it doesn't matter we have cap space coming out the wazoo so wahoo)

Still dont like giving out contracts like that. So many better younger guys for 1 m. Oh well.

If AJ can tone down the penalties I could see him being a great depth energy guy. A guy who just chugs away and scores some surprising goals every now and then.
Oh one other thought... if JB doesn't like players taking dumb penalties he's gonna love Kadri.
Uh-oh

 

[cgf]

It's not so much about AJG never having an NHL career and more about this organization having given up on him.

As for the PEB contract, I think the better argument against it is the money that still needs to be spent on another 1 (or 3) higher end players to complete the top 6...and possibly top 4...rather than that better cheaper young players point. Since we don't really have any better options that we can trust to fill that role this season (at least), we'd be talking about bringing someone in and in that case your gunna be spending as much or more.

In general I'd say that getting someone like PEB instead of seeing if any of the kids can claim the gig is the kind of move that signals that even Joe realizes that we are no longer rebuilding and should be trying to capitalize on this unique opportunity that we have with this core. We are at the point where; unless we're talking about a future core-piece; prospects will need to prove they can be trusted when injuries call them into action...not the 'throw them out there and let them prove they can't be trusted' mindset we've seen previously.

Although even there I'd say Joe is stretching the "future core piece" designation with the trust he's showing in Bura & Jost to fill out our top 6...but that's because the transitional state of our blueline likely means that this is another season in which we aren't quite ready to seriously contend for the big prize.

 

[CobraAcesS]

It's not so much about AJG never having an NHL career and more about this organization having given up on him.

As for the PEB contract, I think the better argument against it is the money that still needs to be spent on another 1 (or 3) higher end players to complete the top 6...and possibly top 4...rather than that better cheaper young players point. Since we don't really have any better options that we can trust to fill that role this season (at least), we'd be talking about bringing someone in and in that case your gunna be spending as much or more.

In general I'd say that getting someone like PEB instead of seeing if any of the kids can claim the gig is the kind of move that signals that even Joe realizes that we are no longer rebuilding and should be trying to capitalize on this unique opportunity that we have with this core. We are at the point where; unless we're talking about a future core-piece; prospects will need to prove they can be trusted when injuries call them into action...not the 'throw them out there and let them prove they can't be trusted' mindset we've seen previously.

Although even there I'd say Joe is stretching the "future core piece" designation with the trust he's showing in Bura & Jost to fill out our top 6...but that's because the transitional state of our blueline likely means that this is another season in which we aren't quite ready to seriously contend for the big prize.

Getting Kadri was also a sign of that. I hadn't really considered it with PEB. I mean leaving Bowers and Kam there to fight it out would not have upset me, but Bowers probably needs a full year in the AHL. Kam.. well that's been hashed out.

Greer is just going to have a really tough time beating out Neato and Calvert. I have to admit.. I really like our 4th line right now. It was getting a little frustrating having it be a useless rotation of Borq, Ghetto, and whatever AHL center was playing best at the time. It is an expensive 4th line though.

 

[avsfan09]

So how long do you think before Kovalenko comes over? And how long until he is NHL ready?

 

[henchman21]

So how long do you think before Kovalenko comes over? And how long until he is NHL ready?

Two more years on his KHL deal, so probably after that. NHL ready or not, when he comes over, it is to play in the NHL.

 

[avsfan09]

Two more years on his KHL deal, so probably after that. NHL ready or not, when he comes over, it is to play in the NHL.

I wonder if he will be ready by then. Hopefully he gets more playing time this season. I like his potential and he seems like one of those guys who even though he's smaller he's strong on the puck and his skates.

 

[FreshFitted67]

In general I'd say that getting someone like PEB instead of seeing if any of the kids can claim the gig is the kind of move that signals that even Joe realizes that we are no longer rebuilding and should be trying to capitalize on this unique opportunity that we have with this core. We are at the point where; unless we're talking about a future core-piece; prospects will need to prove they can be trusted when injuries call them into action...not the 'throw them out there and let them prove they can't be trusted' mindset we've seen previously.

I'd agree with this if we weren't using the exact opposite reasoning regarding our defense lol

But yeah overall you guys might be right... we might be done with AJG, i just think it's a little early to rush to judgment on him. He has the energy, the toughness and impressive hands to be a quality nhl 4th liner at league minimum contract. He just needs to learn to take less PIMs.

I dunno. I'll leave it in Sakics hands. maybe we can package him and get somebody good for him

 

[henchman21]

I'd agree with this if we weren't using the exact opposite reasoning regarding our defense lol

But yeah overall you guys might be right... we might be done with AJG, i just think it's a little early to rush to judgment on him. He has the energy, the toughness and impressive hands to be a quality nhl 4th liner at league minimum contract. He just needs to learn to take less PIMs.

I dunno. I'll leave it in Sakics hands. maybe we can package him and get somebody good for him

Avs will get about 56k for him.