Hextall's Moves

[Curufinwe]

Improving the PK by adding a competent penalty killer and replacing one of Gudas/AMac with a defenseman actually capable of positive possession play would probably help our team a lot more than bringing in a marginally better goaltender than our current duo.

Of the 200 dmen to play 41 or more games, this is where Flyers dmen ranked in SAT Rel%. In terms of possession play, there's no comparison between Gudas and MacDonald.

NHL.com - Stats

4th Sanheim +5.95%

31st Gudas +3.24%

45th Ghost +2.37%

58th Manning +1.43%

119th Provorov -0.58%

182nd MacDonald - 4.35%

195th Hagg -6.13%

 

[FlyTimmo]

Of the 200 dmen to play 41 or more games, this is where Flyers dmen ranked in SAT Rel%. In terms of possession play, there's no comparison between Gudas and MacDonald.

NHL.com - Stats

4th Sanheim +5.95%

31st Gudas +3.24%

45th Ghost +2.37%

58th Manning +1.43%

119th Provorov -0.58%

182nd MacDonald - 4.35%

195th Hagg -6.13%

But, how does early season Gudas compare to end of season Gudas? Give me those stats, because we know Patrick was a completely different player in the 1st half then the 2nd, same applies to Gudas but just the opposite.

And puck possession can't be classified by that statistic. More shot attempts relative to his teammates doesn't mean he is actually a major positive possession force. Just look at the list, Manning is a better puck possession player than Provorov. Gudas better than Ghost. Sanheim 4th in the NHL. That should discount this as a measure of relative team possessive impact.

 

[Curufinwe]

You can set any date filter you like on those possession stats. Gudas will always be miles ahead of MacDonald no matter what timeframe you choose.

Manning's Corsi Rel is above Provorov's because of his limited usage against easy competition, and the fact he almost never plays with MacDonald and usually plays with Gudas.

Manning with Gudas - 51.89 CF%

Manning without Gudas -44.81 CF%

Manning with MacDonald - 32 CF%

Brandon Manning - Teammates - On Ice - Natural Stat Trick

 

[Rebels57]

I mean, we won with Michael Leighton once. Anything is possible from there.

If they rest of the roster is much better, we can at least win a round I think.

With a stacked roster that was picked to win the East before the season began. That's important to note.

 

[bennysflyers16]

I’ve seen into the future and Neuvirth is going to stay healthy for the majority of next year.

Have I ever lied to you guys before? Just you wait and see.

I think you were quite sure Haktard would be toasted at season end when we were all calling for his head mid season . Maybe it was someone else

Neuvy stays health
Manning wins the Norris

Both pay 100,000 / 1 in Vegas

 

[BrindamoursNose]

With a stacked roster that was picked to win the East before the season began. That's important to note.

Exactly.

So we agree.

 

[bennysflyers16]

I'm still 100% down to upgrade goaltending this offseason, if possible, but what this tells me is the PK is the biggest issue, not the goalies themselves. If the PK improves, those two would be tolerable (so long as they're not playing hurt like they were in the playoffs).

13th in the league at 5v5 is pretty decent for non-NHL goalies.

How will the PK improve with most of the same personnel and a bottom 3 PK coach in the NHL ? Or improve you mean like bottom 10 ?

 

[BrindamoursNose]

How will the PK improve with most of the same personnel and a bottom 3 PK coach in the NHL ? Or improve you mean like bottom 10 ?

Free agency or the draft hasn't happened yet bud.

Chillax.

 

[bennysflyers16]

Free agency or the draft hasn't happened yet bud.

Chillax.

Add a good PK vet, then let Haktard and Lappy get their hands on them and watch the magic.

If Hexy would screw loyalty and dust those two clowns Id be all for changes. But when we won't even fire Lappy who has ZERO reasons to have a job, personnel won't much matter imo.

 

[Striiker]

I think you were quite sure Haktard would be toasted at season end when we were all calling for his head mid season . Maybe it was someone else

Neuvy stays health
Manning wins the Norris

Both pay 100,000 / 1 in Vegas

Nope, I said he should/could be, not that he would be.

I don't pull definitive statements out of my ass with nothing to back it up. Enough people on here do that, so I just correct them when they do.

 

[BrindamoursNose]

Add a good PK vet, then let Haktard and Lappy get their hands on them and watch the magic.

If Hexy would screw loyalty and dust those two clowns Id be all for changes. But when we won't even fire Lappy who has ZERO reasons to have a job, personnel won't much matter imo.

I can't defend the Lappy thing cuz well, he blows...but I'm at least willing to see what the personnel looks like/can do after we're done acquisitions this offseason.

Maybe they'll be so good we can't screw them up. We don't currently have good personnel as it is, so here's to hoping!

 

[Rebels57]

Hextall will sign a bottom 6 forward with PK experience. He made a point of saying that at his exit interview. Unfortunately, that won't matter that much because their scheme is a f***ing joke. A high school team could move the puck and find looks on a PK that passive. They will move up 2-4 spots at best due to an improvement in personnel.

 

[Magua]

But, how does early season Gudas compare to end of season Gudas? Give me those stats, because we know Patrick was a completely different player in the 1st half then the 2nd, same applies to Gudas but just the opposite.

And puck possession can't be classified by that statistic. More shot attempts relative to his teammates doesn't mean he is actually a major positive possession force. Just look at the list, Manning is a better puck possession player than Provorov. Gudas better than Ghost. Sanheim 4th in the NHL. That should discount this as a measure of relative team possessive impact.

Pre-suspension (Oct-Nov): +3.8 relCF%, +6.4 relxGF%, -3.85 relGF%

Post-suspension (Dec-Apr): +2.25 relCF%, -0.2 relxGF%, -6.8 relGF%

Previous 2 seasons (15-17): +4.35 relCF%, +3.9 relxGF%, +4.0 relGF%

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

If you want to say he performed worse post-suspension, it's obviously true at face value. It's also a much larger sample size post-suspension, not to say that positively. Having said that, the largest sample size of all is the previous 2 seasons, which actually matches up well with his Oct-Nov results this season, except (surprise surprise) he got the goal results. I'm not too concerned with narratives, so let's ignore him being "de-fanged" and focus on tangible, on-ice things:

1) Perhaps he simply had a poor season. The goal totals piled up, but he performed subpar statistically as well. Yet, he did not perform subpar by Corsi but by expected goal metrics. This is unusual for him.......

2) So, who was he partnered with from December onwards, after spending much of the early season with Sanheim, to stellar results (58%+ in CF% and SCF%)?......

3) Gudas spent almost 2/3 of his ice time this season at 5v5 partnered with Brandon Manning, a known positive shot differential, negative expected goals performer, which matches up well with those Dec-Apr stats. Most of that ice time came from late December onwards, after Sanheim was benched for a month and then sent down before coming up again as MacDonald's partner. It doesn't surprise that Manning's stats went to sh*t apart from Gudas, while Radko's got elevated. While Radko has previously performed well with (carrying) Manning, perhaps he could not handle his game dropping along with his partner's play.

 

[bennysflyers16]

Hextall will sign a bottom 6 forward with PK experience. He made a point of saying that at his exit interview. Unfortunately, that won't matter that much because their scheme is a ****ing joke. A high school team could move the puck and find looks on a PK that passive. They will move up 2-4 spots at best due to an improvement in personnel.

Won't be bottom 6 for long when Beet Boy gets a look at him !!

 

[Captain Dave Poulin]

Won't be bottom 6 for long when Beet Boy gets a look at him !!

He's the worst. Even for a Beet Boy, he's massively crappy at everything. I bet his barn-raising skills (xBR/60) is like just under 3.4 too. What a loser.

 

[FlyTimmo]

Pre-suspension (Oct-Nov): +3.8 relCF%, +6.4 relxGF%, -3.85 relGF%

Post-suspension (Dec-Apr): +2.25 relCF%, -0.2 relxGF%, -6.8 relGF%

Previous 2 seasons (15-17): +4.35 relCF%, +3.9 relxGF%, +4.0 relGF%

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

If you want to say he performed worse post-suspension, it's obviously true at face value. It's also a much larger sample size post-suspension, not to say that positively. Having said that, the largest sample size of all is the previous 2 seasons, which actually matches up well with his Oct-Nov results this season, except (surprise surprise) he got the goal results. I'm not too concerned with narratives, so let's ignore him being "de-fanged" and focus on tangible, on-ice things:

1) Perhaps he simply had a poor season. The goal totals piled up, but he performed subpar statistically as well. Yet, he did not perform subpar by Corsi but by expected goal metrics. This is unusual for him.......

2) So, who was he partnered with from December onwards, after spending much of the early season with Sanheim, to stellar results (58%+ in CF% and SCF%)?......

3) Gudas spent almost 2/3 of his ice time this season at 5v5 partnered with Brandon Manning, a known positive shot differential, negative expected goals performer, which matches up well with those Dec-Apr stats. Most of that ice time came from late December onwards, after Sanheim was benched for a month and then sent down before coming up again as MacDonald's partner. It doesn't surprise that Manning's stats went to sh*t apart from Gudas, while Radko's got elevated. While Radko has previously performed well with (carrying) Manning, perhaps he could not handle his game dropping along with his partner's play.

I wonder how much of his performance when playing with Sanheim was due to Sanheim's performance and him playing easier minutes when paired with Sanheim. I don't know that he had statistically easier minutes, and it is an assumption based on Hakstol's conservative use of Sanheim.

 

[Rebels57]

Won't be bottom 6 for long when Beet Boy gets a look at him !!

Beet Boy & Beagle - sounds like a comic strip in the funny papers

 

[Magua]

I wonder how much of his performance when playing with Sanheim was due to Sanheim's performance and him playing easier minutes when paired with Sanheim. I don't know that he had statistically easier minutes, and it is an assumption based on Hakstol's conservative use of Sanheim.

He may have played easier minutes with Sanheim, but his minutes weren't always top 4 with Manning either. He was used as a bottom pair d-man for most of the year because Hakstol needed MacDonald and Hagg eating minutes, and they had positive goal results early on, which is Dave's evaluative everything. Also, while they played easier minutes, they consistently played with bottom 6 teammates, which is probably more important.

Gudas the previous 2 years was used as a surefire top 4 d-man and put up the same strong underlying numbers paired with MDZ and Manning and company. Sanheim had a big role too and is obviously miles more talented, but Gudas has a history of strong numbers, so it doesn't necessarily have to be one carrying the other.

 

[FlyTimmo]

He may have played easier minutes with Sanheim, but his minutes weren't always top 4 with Manning either. He was used as a bottom pair d-man for most of the year because Hakstol needed MacDonald and Hagg eating minutes, and they had positive goal results early on, which is Dave's evaluative everything. Also, while they played easier minutes, they consistently played with bottom 6 teammates, which is probably more important.

Gudas the previous 2 years was used as a surefire top 4 d-man and put up the same strong underlying numbers paired with MDZ and Manning and company. Sanheim had a big role too and is obviously miles more talented, but Gudas has a history of strong numbers, so it doesn't necessarily have to be one carrying the other.

I can't really comment on QOC for both pairings, but at even strength the Sanheim-Gudas pairing got ~60% OZS in comparison to Gudas-Manning ~45% OZS. The former also had more minutes per game. The overall giant gap in performance difference indicates at least to me that both usage and playing with Sanheim were factors in his uptick when paired together. But, I haven't really dug to deep into this.

 

[bennysflyers16]

Beet Boy & Beagle - sounds like a comic strip in the funny papers

I spit up my coffee !!

 

[deadhead]

I think they'll start out with Sanheim - Gudas and MacDonald - Myers with Hagg as the 7th D-man.
Then players will determine their PT.

A lot is determined how players approach the off season, if Sanheim thinks he has a job guaranteed and doesn't work hard, he could be back in the AHL. On the other hand, if he realizes he lacks NHL strength and trains hard in the summer and comes to camp with added strength and can hold his own in the D-zone, especially in front of the net and along the boards, he can lock down a top 4 spot.

There are guys I don't worry about, not only will Provorov do his bionic Russian thang, but I'll bet he'll be reviewing every turnover he made and vow not to repeat that next season.

The two guys I'm interested in seeing in camp from a physical standpoint is Patrick, who I think could be a beast with a summer to work out, and Ghost, who wasn't back to his rookie form in terms of skating - can he regain that exceptional burst and combine it with his smarter, tougher play.

 

[Curufinwe]

What are Hextall and Hakstol going to be doing next season while the new management are busy dropping Hagg from 2nd pairing to #7?

 

[JojoTheWhale]

I can't really comment on QOC for both pairings, but at even strength the Sanheim-Gudas pairing got ~60% OZS in comparison to Gudas-Manning ~45% OZS. The former also had more minutes per game. The overall giant gap in performance difference indicates at least to me that both usage and playing with Sanheim were factors in his uptick when paired together. But, I haven't really dug to deep into this.

Zone starts don't have significant impact on shot metrics beyond outliers on a leaguewide scale when taken over an appropriate sample size (at least 20ish Games). Their impact is generally limited to the first ~15-20 seconds of the applicable Shift.

Let's take Sanheim-Gudas as an example. At 5v5, they had 94 OZS, 77 NZS, and 61 DZS. If we calculated ZS% the way the site you used does, we could get Sanheim-Gudas to ~45% OZS by taking 24 OZS and moving them to DZS. If we multiply our 24 changed starts by our 15 seconds per, that gives us 6 Minutes of affected TOI. They played 238+ Minutes together at 5v5.

Those ZS numbers are also a little misleading. To approach anywhere near 60% OZS, that means you're throwing out NZS in your percentages and doing a simple +/- system with O/Ds. This is somewhat fine if everyone in the discussion understands this, but that's often not the case in a public setting.

TLDR; When you adjust for Zone Starts, the overwhelming majority of players' CF% changes by less than a percent. In extreme outlier situations like Boyd Gordon's last year in Arizona, this may approach 2%.

 

[Magua]

What are Hextall and Hakstol going to be doing next season while the new management are busy dropping Hagg from 2nd pairing to #7?

 

[FlyTimmo]

Zone starts don't have significant impact on shot metrics beyond outliers on a leaguewide scale when taken over an appropriate sample size (at least 20ish Games). Their impact is generally limited to the first ~15-20 seconds of the applicable Shift.

Let's take Sanheim-Gudas as an example. At 5v5, they had 94 OZS, 77 NZS, and 61 DZS. If we calculated ZS% the way the site you used does, we could get Sanheim-Gudas to ~45% OZS by taking 24 OZS and moving them to DZS. If we multiply our 24 changed starts by our 15 seconds per, that gives us 6 Minutes of affected TOI. They played 238+ Minutes together at 5v5.

Those ZS numbers are also a little misleading. To approach anywhere near 60% OZS, that means you're throwing out NZS in your percentages and doing a simple +/- system with O/Ds. This is somewhat fine if everyone in the discussion understands this, but that's often not the case in a public setting.

TLDR; When you adjust for Zone Starts, the overwhelming majority of players' CF% changes by less than a percent. In extreme outlier situations like Boyd Gordon's last year in Arizona, this may approach 2%.

Interesting. Good post.