GDT: #hcanes @ #moocowcity: I have come a Canaiac and a Caniac I am!!!

[Blueline Bomber]

I have a feeling Semin's lockout year is going to be the equivalent of Staal's 100-point season. Something we can cling to in the hopes that he matches it, until it becomes obvious that it was simply a fluke.

 

[Boom Boom Apathy]

We were above league average in possession and offensive metrics in the short year.

And in the short year, he and E. Staal were PPG players, but it was just that, a short year. In the full year that followed, their scoring was disappointing, plain and simple (for whatever reason people want to give). Last year, the team was below average in the 1 offensive category that counts on the scoreboard...goals (being 22nd in the league OA and 24th 5v5).

So I stand by my statement, how he ranks on a bad team only tells a small part of the overall picture. He may have ranked well on the team, but the team was poor offensively.

I do agree that people shouldn't over-react to just 6 games this season though, especially with the hodgepodge line-ups they've had. That doesn't mean he can't be criticized though.

 

[nobuddy]

I have a feeling Semin's lockout year is going to be the equivalent of Staal's 100-point season. Something we can cling to in the hopes that he matches it, until it becomes obvious that it was simply a fluke.

Yes that year was a fluke for him for sure.

He only shot 8.7%, and his career average is 13.1%.

Wait.....

 

[nobuddy]

And in the short year, he and E. Staal were PPG players, but it was just that, a short year. In the full year that followed, their scoring was disappointing, plain and simple (for whatever reason people want to give). Last year, the team was below average in the 1 offensive category that counts on the scoreboard...goals (being 22nd in the league OA and 24th 5v5).

So I stand by my statement, how he ranks on a bad team only tells a small part of the overall picture. He may have ranked well on the team, but the team was poor offensively.

I do agree that people shouldn't over-react to just 6 games this season though, especially with the hodgepodge line-ups they've had. That doesn't mean he can't be criticized though.

His scoring was disappointing in a year in which he was concussed and he played the entire season with a wrist ailment? You don't say...

 

[Ole Gil]

His shooting % took a sharp decline a few seasons back. Looking at his career shooting % is likely including several seasons that are no longer relevant.

 

[Blueline Bomber]

Yes that year was a fluke for him for sure.

He only shot 8.7%, and his career average is 13.1%.

Wait.....

Yes or no: Do you believe Semin will hit PPG during a full season while with Carolina?

 

[Boom Boom Apathy]

His scoring was disappointing in a year in which he was concussed and he played the entire season with a wrist ailment? You don't say...

So he's injury prone? Not sure if that makes me feel any better.

 

[nobuddy]

His shooting % took a sharp decline a few seasons back. Looking at his career shooting % is likely including several seasons that are no longer relevant.

he's never shot below 10.9% his entire career and he shot 8.7% in the lockout year.

10.9% is his WORST career year in terms of shooting percentage, and it was his rookie year.

So let's say Semin is now a 10.9% shooter. Hey look, guess what! Gee, 8.7% is still unsustainably low compared to this worst possible imaginary Semin we've contrived for no reason!

Think please.

 

[nobuddy]

Yes or no: Do you believe Semin will hit PPG during a full season while with Carolina?

If he doesn't it will be due to the quality of team we are in that time frame and not because he isn't capable of it.

 

[rocky7]

under rated play maker. it would be nice if he had a guy to set up that was a good consistent finisher....and they played that way

 

[What the Faulk]

So he's one of the least fat out of a bunch of fat guys.

Since joining the team, Semin ranks among $6.5m+ forwards (out of 24)

ES Goals: 17th
ES Assists: 14th
ES Primary Assists: 10th
ES Points: 18th
ES SOG: 9th
ESG/60: 17th
ESA/60: 16th
ESP/60: 18th
CF%: 12th
FF%: 14th
GF% 12th
GF60: 10th

Just for fun, Staal's ranks:

ES Goals: 9th
ES Assists: 4th
ES Primary Assists: 4th
ES Points: 5th
ES SOG: 10th
ESG/60: 12th
ESA/60: 6th
ESP/60: 7th
CF%: 18th
FF%: 14th
GF% 21st
GF60: 12th

The names: vanek, patrice bergeron, marleau, backstrom, joe thornton, mikko koivu, kopitar, stastny, sedin, semin, spezza, stamkos, datsyuk, parise, rick nash, kessel, getzlaf, eric staal, giroux, perry, crosby, malkin, ovechkin

 

[Boom Boom Apathy]

Including the strike shortened year. Semin has been a PPG player in 3 of his 9 seasons, so that is 2 full seasons and 1 Half season where he achieved a PPG.

He's definitely capable of it, but a PPG pace is more the exception than the rule. When he was at his peak, about 30 of his 80 points came on the PP. His PP production has tailed off over the 5 years so if the Canes can truly get a more effective PP under Peters and the team gets everyone back, that will be the key to him hitting a PPG IMO.

Same goes for Staal. His PP production (particularly goal scoring) has tailed off significantly over the past few years.

 

[Boom Boom Apathy]

WTF, Just Curious, how does he look on the PP? (serious question).

EDIT: and as I pointed out to CMP, it's last season that I was referring to. He was a PPG player in the strike shortened season, but disappointing offensively with only 42 points last year (can't see how that's even debatable). If it was due to concussions and a bad wrist, fine, but regardless, his production was down. And so far this year, while it's only 6 games, it's fair to say he's been disappointing offensively.

So is it too early to over-react? Yep, it's only 6 games of a hodgepodge line-up. Is it fair to criticize him, yep. Does the media go overboards (particularly compared to how they treat others on the team), yep.

 

[Blueline Bomber]

If he doesn't it will be due to the quality of team we are in that time frame and not because he isn't capable of it.

So "No" then. Doesn't matter how you justify it, it was a fluke year. Not that there's anything wrong with that, but pointing to his performance during a fluke year and saying "Well, he's capable of it!" dilutes that argument.

I could say Eric Staal is capable of putting up 100 points, but I'm not going to use that year to justify anything he's done. Jonathan Cheechoo was capable of 50 goals, but no one seriously thought he could repeat that performance (at least, not for long).

Just because someone is capable of something does not mean we should expect that performance. Sometimes, things just fall into place and everything goes right. If I had to make a guess, it's more likely that we'll see Semin flounder at the 50-60 point range during his time here (however long that is). Certainly nothing to scoff at, but definitely not what we signed him for.

 

[Boom Boom Apathy]

So "No" then. Doesn't matter how you justify it, it was a fluke year. Not that there's anything wrong with that, but pointing to his performance during a fluke year and saying "Well, he's capable of it!" dilutes that argument.

I could say Eric Staal is capable of putting up 100 points, but I'm not going to use that year to justify anything he's done. Jonathan Cheechoo was capable of 50 goals, but no one seriously thought he could repeat that performance (at least, not for long).

Not quite apples to apples. Semin did it 2 seasons ago (albeit a strike shortened season) vs. Eric did it 10 year ago when the NHL was considerably different.

 

[Finlandia WOAT]

I think we all understand the narrative quite well. Criticism of Semin is unwarranted, must be simply due to bias against him and has zero to do with him or his performance. And when his performance eventually does turn around, it will still have nothing to do with him or how he is playing, it's simply that his shots are falling now.

Damn, you're the last person I would peg to go for a strawman.

No one is saying that the criticism of Semin is unwarranted. He is clearly playing at a level lower than what is expected of him, given his status and his salary.

What is unwarranted is the level of criticism is unreasonable, compared to other "impact" players, as well as the personal level of that criticism.

It took 5 years of coasting through half-seasons and no playoffs before anyone started to call out E. Staal, for example, and even now the only person that does so is Forslund with his "leaders have to lead" mantra. Semin got all of 1 down season and 6 games. I have never heard anyone accuse Eric of having a "heart related ailment", or whatever way other people wish to word it. And both E. Staal and Cam Ward get excuses all of the time- including the quality of their teammates. Yet this, for some reason, does not extend to Semin when his center is a player that is mockingly referred to as "the Future" on this very board.

But this debacle detracts from the main point, which is that the difference between success and failure for this team is not based on whether or not Semin tries 60% vs. he tries 100% (to be clear, I don't think it's an effort related issue at all, but a hockey IQ one). This is a poorly constructed hockey team from top to bottom with its top two centers out- and with them in, we still have players like Nathan "cut by the Sabres" Gerbe and Patrick Dwyer getting top minutes. Or one of Harrison, Bellemore, Murphy or Liles in the top 4 because we only have 3 top-4 defensemen, and that number looks closer to 1 now with Hainsey and Faulk going American Idiot.

The insinuation that the Hurricanes are failing because Alexander Semin isn't trying hard is an argument that can't be wrong, because he will either get better at some point, in which case he is now "trying", or he will not, in which case he is not "trying". It also implies that the Hurricanes are a very easily corrected personal problem away from being a decent team, and feeds into the effort hype that plagues this board and this (our American) culture.

 

[Blueline Bomber]

Not quite apples to apples. Semin did it 2 seasons ago (albeit a strike shortened season) vs. Eric did it 10 year ago when the NHL was considerably different.

And how many years did it take before we finally accepted that Eric, in all likelihood, wasn't going to reach 100 points again? How many years will it take before we accept that Semin won't, in all likelihood, repeat his performance in the strike-shortened season? And since we're paying him to essentially repeat that performance (one final **** you from JR), how many years will it take before we try to move him?

 

[What the Faulk]

WTF, Just Curious, how does he look on the PP? (serious question).

Not good. Staal, as we know, hasn't scored for ****. Only Thornton and Koivu are worse per 60 (no use looking at raw totals with small sample sizes). Semin is about middle of the road. Both are bottom ten in assists/60. Only Rick Nash has been worse than either in points/60. Both are slightly above average in total PP SOG.

And how many years did it take before we finally accepted that Eric, in all likelihood, wasn't going to reach 100 points again? How many years will it take before we accept that Semin won't, in all likelihood, repeat his performance in the strike-shortened season? And since we're paying him to essentially repeat that performance (one final **** you from JR), how many years will it take before we try to move him?

More than 1, I think.

Plus, he's playing like he's getting paid across the league. Look at the numbers several posts above.

 

[Boom Boom Apathy]

Damn, you're the last person I would peg to go for a strawman.

No one is saying that the criticism of Semin is unwarranted. He is clearly playing at a level lower than what is expected of him, given his status and his salary.

What is unwarranted is the level of criticism is unreasonable, compared to other "impact" players, as well as the personal level of that criticism.

I was admittedly playing devil's advocate, because IMO, some of the posting on here have gone just as far overboard. I know that most (won't say all) aren't saying the criticism isn't warranted and I agree on the media bias, but over the past 3 games it has gone past that on here. An error on the ice occurs by player X and immediately there are multiple post of "How come he doesn't get criticized..Semin would" Or Tripp points out that Semin 2 times in 1 game lost a guy on the point and everyone yells media bias, yet Tripp does the same thing when Skinner does, etc..

Yes, there is media bias towards Semin, but not every criticism by the media is because of bias.

But this debacle detracts from the main point, which is that the difference between success and failure for this team is not based on whether or not Semin tries 60% vs. he tries 100% (to be clear, I don't think it's an effort related issue at all, but a hockey IQ one). This is a poorly constructed hockey team from top to bottom with its top two centers out- and with them<snip>.

I honestly don't think anybody really thinks they are failing because of Semin. I would be surprised if anyone, even the most optimistic fan/reporter, thinks this team is good without Staal, Staal, Skinner, Gerbe, Sekera etc... (and in most peoples cases, even with them). I think people are disappointed in that he is struggling. Right or wrong, it's natural to "hope" that when the chips are down, the top players will elevate their game. Unfortunately, that is more myth than reality, particularly in a "team game" like hockey. That doesn't change peoples "hopes" though.

 

[Boom Boom Apathy]

Not good. Staal, as we know, hasn't scored for ****. Only Thornton and Koivu are worse per 60 (no use looking at raw totals with small sample sizes). Semin is about middle of the road. Both are bottom ten in assists/60. Only Rick Nash has been worse than either in points/60. Both are slightly above average in total PP SOG..

Thanks. So if you look at the whole picture (EV and PP), they are both (Staal and Semin) probably near the bottom in terms of scoring?

 

[Boom Boom Apathy]

And how many years did it take before we finally accepted that Eric, in all likelihood, wasn't going to reach 100 points again? How many years will it take before we accept that Semin won't, in all likelihood, repeat his performance in the strike-shortened season? And since we're paying him to essentially repeat that performance (one final **** you from JR), how many years will it take before we try to move him?

I'm not saying Semin will or won't be a PPG player in the future, I was only saying your comparison is flawed.

1) As I stated, Eric's 100 point season was 10 years ago when the NHL was totally different (after the first lockout). Semin was a PPG player last year.

2) Semin achieved a PPG pace for 3 times in his career and has been close another time or two. Eric has never been within 20 points of his career high again and most seasons 25+ points below that mark.

My point being simply this. Your examples of Cheechoo and Staal aren't great examples. Both were the definition of "fluke" in that both did it one time and never even came remotely close again. That's not the same thing with Semin being a PPG player. He's about a 0.9 PPG player over his career and has done it more than once so it's not a "fluke".

Again, not saying he will or won't do it going forward, was just commenting on your example.

 

[Navin R Slavin]

The insinuation that the Hurricanes are failing because Alexander Semin isn't trying hard is an argument that can't be wrong, because he will either get better at some point, in which case he is now "trying", or he will not, in which case he is not "trying". It also implies that the Hurricanes are a very easily corrected personal problem away from being a decent team, and feeds into the effort hype that plagues this board and this (our American) culture.

Dropping that science. "Semin == Lazy" is a non-falsifiable hypothesis. That's why Lazy Journalists jump into it with both feet.

NOW WHO'S LAZY *****ES???

--hank

 

[What the Faulk]

Thanks. So if you look at the whole picture (EV and PP), they are both (Staal and Semin) probably near the bottom in terms of scoring?

For goals they are both bottom 10. For assists, Staal is 9th, Semin is 20th. Staal 10th in points, Semin T-2nd last w/ Datsyuk, Stastny, Nash, ahead of Spezza. Per 60 is about the same.

So in total situations, production only, Staal is performing slightly under his 6th place cap hit, all due to the PP. Semin is generally slightly under his T-13th (w/ 4 others), mostly due to the PP.

These are just since 2012. Both are top 10 players in almost everything over their careers.

 

[Anton Dubinchuk]

Dropping that science. "Semin == Lazy" is a non-falsifiable hypothesis. That's why Lazy Journalists jump into it with both feet.

NOW WHO'S LAZY *****ES???

--hank

get that f'ing syntax away from me i was coding in c for 18 hours yesterday i am so done with this...

 

[rocky7]

Semin is a top notch multi- skilled complimentary player, meaning he can score and is a great setup guy. actually I think he gets labeled as a scorer but is in fact a better passer and play maker. I feel confident that if he played with a couple of good finishers, he'd have no problem at all reaching the ppg plateau.