Has Nathan MacKinnon finally got back to his rookie form?

[grentthealien]

20pts in 17 games so far after a string of underwhelming seasons. I remember thinking with his toolbox he was a surefire star after his 13-14 season , but for whatever reason he has struggled to put it all together since then. For those who watch him play daily how good has he looked this season and what exactly is different this year than last year?

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[ChiefWiggum]

He always shows flashes. Revisit at the end of the year

 

[Pierce Hawthorne]

I hope not. That would mean a regression for him compared to even last year.


It's pretty easy to tell when someone doesn't watch the Avs play at all. This is a prime example of it. Mackinnon's best year as an Av was last year when he literally carried the team almost solely on his back for 90% of the season. Without him and Rantanen the Avs wouldn't have cracked 15 Wins last year.


So far this year he's looking poised for a massive breakout season. He and Rantanen are building on the chemistry they had down the stretch last year, and Gabe Landeskog has added a new physical element to that line that makes them even more dangerous.

 

[IPS]

What you see is most likely what you get at this point with Mackinnon. A 55-60ish point center who's brutal defensively who shows flashes of being great once in awhile, but never does it consistently.

 

[93LEAFS]

He's a better player than he was as a rookie. As a rookie a lot of his success came playing on the wing to guys like ROR and Stastny, while riding percentages. This year he's running his own, has developed into a better possession player, and isn't riding a hot team.

 

[Cousin Eddie]

What you see is most likely what you get at this point with Mackinnon. A 55-60ish point center who's brutal defensively who shows flashes of being great once in awhile, but never does it consistently.

Exactly. Most players reach their ceiling a month after their 22nd birthday. Draisaitl has also topped out. We'll see Nylander and Eichel follow suit in the next few months.

 

[CanuckGame39]

Them feels when you trade MacKinnon and Sergachev for Drouin and S.Jones early in your fantasy league.

Hurts watching Mack racking up the points.

 

[haulinbass]

A lot of players are off to strong starts. I expect him to finish around 60 points and be bellow average defensively in comparison to #1 centers.

Eventually they will have to pull Landy off that top line to spread the talent out. They currently have their 3 best forwards stacked on 1 line.

I also wouldn't be surprised to see Colorado regress from the pace they are on. That won't help if that happens.

 

[Dominance]

A lot of players are off to strong starts. I expect him to finish around 60 points and be bellow average defensively in comparison to #1 centers.

Eventually they will have to pull Landy off that top line to spread the talent out. They currently have their 3 best forwards stacked on 1 line.

I also wouldn't be surprised to see Colorado regress from the pace they are on. That won't help if that happens.

You have no basis, except for your own unsupported opinions (or from what it sounds like, hopes and dreams), for literally any of this. Save it.

 

[Ryan Michaels]

You have no basis, except for your own unsupported opinions (or from what it sounds like, hopes and dreams), for literally any of this. Save it.

Well he has Mackinnon's career to date I think you have these other things. You could absolutely be right but the onus is on Mackinnon to prove doubters wrong at this point and it will take more than 20 games.

 

[hooverdam]

Do people still just use +/- to say someone's bad defensively in 2017?

MacKinnon's no worse than a lot of top centers defensively, even if he isn't in that upper echelon of two-way guys (and why should he be? The Avs are in a bad spot if they need their 22-year-old 1C to carry the entire offensive and defensive burden).

The interesting thing to me is that, in the past he'd have fits and spurts of amazing play interspersed with stretches where he just looked clueless or disengaged. But starting last year and continuing this year, the valleys in his play quality seem to be rising, so his worst games still look pretty good. That makes sense for a 22-year-old, and I think it means that even if he doesn't take over a game every night (and no one does that), he's still going to be making things happen out there, which is vital for that range of top centers.

 

[LeafFever]

We'll see. it's disturbing his best play has still been the first half of his rookie season.

 

[haulinbass]

You have no basis, except for your own unsupported opinions (or from what it sounds like, hopes and dreams), for literally any of this. Save it.

Would you like to enlighten me with your factual knowledge and data?

For two I never said Mackinnon can't develop into a better player. What I'm saying is that a strong start doesn't mean Mackinnon 2.0 has arrived. Can you disprove that statement?

Thanks

 

[avsfan09]

We'll see. it's disturbing his best play has still been the first half of his rookie season.

Was the back Half btw. Also that really wasnt his best play. Its just when he had the best support. Hes had other stretches at higher levels.

 

[LeafFever]

Was the back Half btw. Also that really wasnt his best play. Its just when he had the best support. Hes had other stretches at higher levels.

Pretty sure it was the first half. He ran out of gas near the end.

 

[LeafFever]

Do people still just use +/- to say someone's bad defensively in 2017?

MacKinnon's no worse than a lot of top centers defensively, even if he isn't in that upper echelon of two-way guys (and why should he be? The Avs are in a bad spot if they need their 22-year-old 1C to carry the entire offensive and defensive burden).

The interesting thing to me is that, in the past he'd have fits and spurts of amazing play interspersed with stretches where he just looked clueless or disengaged. But starting last year and continuing this year, the valleys in his play quality seem to be rising, so his worst games still look pretty good. That makes sense for a 22-year-old, and I think it means that even if he doesn't take over a game every night (and no one does that), he's still going to be making things happen out there, which is vital for that range of top centers.

I honestly see more posts now using +/- than I did here 5 years ago, I don't get it. It's such an outdated stat.

 

[Goulet17]

I honestly see more posts now using +/- than I did here 5 years ago, I don't get it. It's such an outdated stat.

People on this board are not going to use statistics that do not support their argument. In this case, the argument is that Nathan MacKinnon is not good, and the statistics that fly in the face of that argument are his Corsi For and Fenwick For percentages at even strength, which are excellent and have been excellent for the past four seasons.

 

[Avs44]

I've said it for a while: The last two years he has been a better player than he was in his rookie season. A significantly better player, in fact, if you look beyond just raw point totals. In his rookie season he zoomed around on the wing, zero defensive responsibilities, with Stastny and Landeskog, while the Duchene-ROR combo drew the attention of the opposition. The last two years he's noticeably learned to be a responsible defensive player, regardless of what folks like IPS have determined from two viewings per year. He's learned to carry his own line, at centre, against the other teams best competition. Hindsight being 20/20 he should have been put at centre and kept there in his rookie season to actually learn that position, but due to the Avs depth there that didn't happen. But the 55 point MacKinnon at centre the last couple seasons has absolutely been a better overall player than 63 point MacKinnon at wing being fed pucks by Stastny and speeding past defenses that were still surprised by him. Hopefully now the point totals come so others will start to realize that too.

 

[Guided by Veseys]

Pretty sure it was the first half. He ran out of gas near the end.

He was pretty consistent for the entire year and put up 10 points in 7 games against Minnesota in the playoffs.
He was played on the wing and had good linemates in his first season so his numbers were boosted by his assist totals.

 

[FerrisRox]

What you see is most likely what you get at this point with Mackinnon. A 55-60ish point center who's brutal defensively who shows flashes of being great once in awhile, but never does it consistently.

Respectfully, you don't have a clue what you are talking about.

MacKinnon's defense is greatly improved. Moving to centre meant a lot more responsibility in that regard and he's improved a great deal and continues to improve. His consistency, as well, is also greatly improved and a ceiling of 55 points seems to indicate - beyond the other fallacies in your post - that your really haven't watched much of him. He is the offensive catalyst on a line that is consistently dangerous shift after shift.

Your take on MacKinnon seems to be at least three years old.

 

[Pacman33]

Mack will have his best season of his career statistically this year. He’s definitely starting to show more hockey iq and still is one of the most physically gifted players in the league. The difference this year is he has a better team around him that can gel with him more due to the fact they are fast enough to keep up with him as opposed to avs vets last couple years. Also the addition of bennett as our pp coach is huge. Our pp looks better than it has at any time in macks career so his pp production will be higher. Not to mention a little guy named sam girard who is making it more dangerous. Idk if he will get a ppg but i feel safe saying hes gets 70+ points if healthy

 

[Dominance]

Would you like to enlighten me with your factual knowledge and data?

For two I never said Mackinnon can't develop into a better player. What I'm saying is that a strong start doesn't mean Mackinnon 2.0 has arrived. Can you disprove that statement?

Thanks

I overreacted, because I hate it when people put ambiguous caps on players’ potentials. There is no data that points either way.

You are also fair in your second statement. I simply disagree with the opinions you provided as to why you believe his production will slip (i.e. Colorado feeling a need to take Landeskog away from MacK, when he’s having a resurgence alongside him), and think that a 20 game sample size is more than enough to justify a player’s progression. What more would you have? Half a season? An entire season? Half a decade?

Having watched the Avs play at least a half dozen times so far this year, in which I have seen MacKinnon consistently generate numerous high-danger scoring chances, I believe that he will continue his pace now that he has a good team around him and become a premier 1C - top-10 in the league is nowhere close to being out of reach with his talent, size, speed, and IQ. If you disagree, that’s all fine.

The only thing that you are wholly incorrect in is your statement that he is worse defensively than most 1Cs. This is an entirely false statement; MacKinnon is in my eyes one of the hardest backcheckers in the league, has a good stick, is totally unafraid to take the body or sacrifice to block a shot, and is consistently excellent in his positioning. There’s a reason why he plays on the penalty kill - something that few other 1Cs do.

 

[Cousin Eddie]

Last season's Nathan Mackinnon was a pretty big step up from rookie Nathan Mackinnon.
This season's Nathan Mackinnon is a pretty big step up from last season's Nathan Mackinnon.

The kid is showing how you do dat hockey.

 

[Jarey Curry]

What you see is most likely what you get at this point with Mackinnon. A 55-60ish point center who's brutal defensively who shows flashes of being great once in awhile, but never does it consistently.

Brutal defensively is someone who doesn't play #1C position and has earned A letter on his jersey. ATM hes playing like he could reach 80 points but I expect a little fall off, let's guess 68p in 79games played. So your points are nullified

 

[VoidCreature]

It's all about shooting percentage with Mackinnon. He was touted as the next Steven Stamkos out of junior, and they're almost completely even in assists/game in their careers. Stamkos slightly edges him in shots/game, but the real separation is created with the strength of their shots. Stamkos has shot more than double what Mackinnon has in his career.

Right now Mackinnon's shooting percentage is 13.5 on the year. If that's indicative of an improvement he's made to his release and he can keep it up he'll break out and be the center he was hyped up to be. If not he'll continue to underwhelm relative to what was expected.