News Article: Has Matthews Plateaud? by Bruce Arthur -- Mod warning post #127

[thewave]

matthews has played pretty well; but marner's beast mode has eclipsed matthews' performance IMO.

Matthews is still producing at a ppg clip that is higher than any of his two seasons; but marner's production given his mitch's usage against top QoC and PK is so huge that Matthews' production doesn't look as awesome

that said, matthews isn't done or even "plateaued" at 21 years of age. the author of the article needs to get some fresh perspective and stop stating things as if written in stone for a..... 21 year old player.......

You say PPG clip but normalized to two seasons prior when tending equipment was different, that would be like .80-.85. very poor for 11.6m as McDavid posted around 1.2ppg under the old rules.

 

[ShaneFalco]

Washed up at 21

 

[Gallagbi]

Washed up at 21

Don't think it's a question of washed up, but a question of whether he moves from a very good player to truly elite (aka top 5).

I'm hoping he does, but it's not a given.

 

[Gallagbi]

I need to correct you... You say PPG clip but normalized to two seasons prior when tending equipment was different, that would be like .80-.85. very poor for 11.6m as McDavid posted around 1.2ppg under the old rules.

That's not a correction. His statement is correct and factual. Yours is an estimation and assumption.

 

[A1LeafNation]

So did Mackinnon a couple years ago..lol

 

[Trapper]

With great salary comes great responsibility.
As time goes by, he should be judged harder than Nylander has been judged here.

But judged fairly. Both in terms of individual and team support + coaching.

 

[ShaneFalco]

Don't think it's a question of washed up, but a question of whether he moves from a very good player to truly elite (aka top 5).

I'm hoping he does, but it's not a given.

I was being facetious and he does need to step up but it’s amazing how many have turned on him

 

[ShaneFalco]

With great salary comes great responsibility.
As time goes by, he should be judged harder than Nylander has been judged here.

But judged fairly. Both in terms of individual and team support + coaching.

Spider-Man ?

 

[thewave]

That's not a correction. His statement is correct and factual. Yours is an estimation and assumption.

I did the math. League scoring for the top 100 players and such back to 2012. It may not be gospel but it's pretty damn close to precise as precise gets. I did it two ways actually and you can as well.

If you believe I am wrong to state there were under 20 .90ppg players for years 2012-2017 and are currently about 60 players at .90ppg pace, well.

League scoring is up. You select the top players to compare because the changes were to tenders. It favors good shooters... The best players.

 

[Jackson14]

I want to see another gear in the playoffs. I thought we would last post season but he was all but useless, which came as a major shock. He has no excuses this year, he has to elevate his game to the next level.

 

[lipstickjunkie]

I know Matthews should dominate with any linemates but it truly blows my mind that Babcock hasn't put him back with Nylander.

 

[Gallagbi]

I did the math. League scoring for the top 100 players and such back to 2012. It may not be gospel but it's pretty damn close to precise as precise gets. I did it two ways actually and you can as well.

If you believe I am wrong to state there were under 20 .90ppg players for years 2012-2017 and are currently about 60 players at .90ppg pace, well.

League scoring is up. You select the top players to compare because the changes were to tenders. It favors good shooters... The best players.

That's great you did math, but his statement is correct. So you aren't "correcting him" on anything.

 

[egd27]

Looks like an extremely talented guy that has SAS (spoiled athlete syndrome).

If the rumors are true that he was sulking at the end of last season about his line mates. If the rumors are true that he is sulking this year about not playing with Mitch.If the rumors are true that he is sulking about having to rookies on his wings this year, if the rumors are true that he has an issue with the way Babcock deploys him... if the rumors are true he sounds like a spoiled brat. If the rumors are true he is more concerned with "me" that team.

None of really know if the rumors are true, but I think we can confidently say the media has not taken a shine to him. I hate to say it but it feels like the media is setting this guy up to be the next ex-Leaf that we all love to hate... Phaneuf, Kessel, Bernier, Toskala, Berg, Murphy, Carlisle, Wilson, Burke, Nonis ...

Agreed.......I have no idea if the rumours are true, but there does seem to be quite a few of them.

With no proof whatsoever, I get a sense that although he encouraged JT to sign, he may be a little put out that JT and Mitch are the new dynamic duo, and he's no longer "the man"

 

[thewave]

That's great you did math, but his statement is correct. So you aren't "correcting him" on anything.

Fair enough, I changed the post. I just can't help but stress that the scoring effects from the equipment changes must be factored and without correction a kid getting 100pts will ask for McDavid money or more. It's not deserving, his points were worth more to the league then.

It's starting to bother me when they say on TV, JT is having a career year compared to prior years as if the changes never happened. Is there such thing as a frame of reference?

 

[JEI]

I think he certainly has another level. How to get there, I don't know. I don't think Babcock's wrong when he says when Matthews is skating, he's a force. There are many nights where he looks disinterested, no doubt. I think it starts with a strong playoff and build from there (in order to take the next step). He's still a great talent, but not without his flaws.

 

[57 Years No Cup]

I know Matthews should dominate with any linemates but it truly blows my mind that Babcock hasn't put him back with Nylander.

Babcock is "punishing" them both.

That'll sure teach 'em!

 

[613Leafer]

Matthews is an incredible young talent, and in a vacuum relative to most 1st OA picks, how he's developed, etc, its hard to be anything except very happy with his development (aside from the injuries).

In saying that, the NHL is a hard salary cap, and expectations on players are ultimately largely tied to their contracts.

Matthews signed for the 2nd highest caphit in the league as an RFA instead of a UFA (who typically get paid more). He's also the only guy with a top 10 caphit not on a 7-8 year contract implying on that length of contract he'd be more of a ~13M+player.

So Matthews has been great, but I don't see him living up to the contract. He has a contract reflective of a legit top 2-3 player in the league, but so far he's been playing more like a top 20 or so player.

 

[Mess]

With great salary comes great responsibility.
As time goes by, he should be judged harder than Nylander has been judged here.

But judged fairly. Both in terms of individual and team support + coaching.

Agreed as of next year he will be the 2nd highest paid (AAV) player in the league and like all players they're judged on their contracts vs their contribution.

ie .. bang for your cap buck.

For that salary we're going to need 45-50 goals and 95+ points and strong playoff series where he is the difference maker.

Matthews has all the talent in the World so he has the potential to reach his upper limit and be among the very best year in and year out as you would expect from a franchise player.

 

[Loosie]

Wow...if that's not some click bait shit. I ain't reading that.

 

[lipstickjunkie]

Babcock is "punishing" them both.

That'll sure teach 'em!

Yep, this would be Matty and Willy if Babs truly had his way:

bart chalkboard gif - Google Search

 

[Loosie]

Of course, everyone is entitled to their opinion, but please keep in mind that he is paid (well) to write about the Leafs - and, to the best of my knowledge, no one here is.

And everyone knows negative articles about the Leafs gets more eyes/clicks/reads/shares whatever.

 

[biotk]

Because if he gets hard matched against Bergeron again he is going to need to find a way this time.

He wasn't hard matched against Bergeron last playoffs. He was hard matched against Chara who completely shut down every star he went up against.

1 GF in 66:40 for Matthews against Chara (he played 26:25 against Bergeron with 2 GF)
0 GF in 31:55 for Marner against Chara (Marner 38:01 against Bergeron with 2 GF)
1 GF in 43:13 for Kucherov against Chara (both Kucherov and Stamkos played less than 12 minutes against Bergeron)
1 GF in 42:12 for Stamkos against Chara

Based on the TOI you can see how much more concerned Boston was with having Chara out on the ice when Matthews was compared to anyone else.

It is baffling that this myth is still being pushed here. Toronto cared about matching forwards (they wanted Kadri and then Plek out against Bergeron). Boston gave absolutely zero shits about matching their forwards at all, and why would they? They have Bergeron, Marchand and Pastrnak on a line. They eat up 3rd and 4th lines throughout the league. They are put out there to score, not to shut down the opponents best players.

 

[PromisedLand]

You say PPG clip but normalized to two seasons prior when tending equipment was different, that would be like .80-.85. very poor for 11.6m as McDavid posted around 1.2ppg under the old rules.

but that theory applies to entire league as a whole and is not just individually applicable to matthews alone. Regardless; the ppg clip for matthews has seen improvements season over season for the last 3 seasons; so the claim that he has not shown improvement is a false claim.

now in terms of matthews getting 11.6M for only a 5 year term that is on Dubas being a DUMBASS and ruining it for the Leafs.

Dubas foresight, which is a HUGE requirement to be a competent manager is basically non-existent. He could have had Matthews at around Eichel's contract for 8 years and Marner for 9M for 8 years; but the MORON dubas didn't get it done.

Dubas fanboys will claim dubas is a genius and blame everything else
Some folks will chime in and say in hindsight yes

but the fact of the matter is that the moment Tavares was signed; it was very much expected that both Marner and Matthews will produce at a higher clip as they as a club were much better; Dubas should have had this foresight and then signed them last summer; but that moron waited -> what did he expect? that their production will not improve? This is all Dubas' doing and he alone should be blamed.

Nylander's production was also expected to increase or at least maintain similar pace as prior two seasons that still hasn't happened.

Marner on the other hand has improved significantly!!! He takes highest QoC; produces points; has become an offensive threat even on the PK; plays a 200 foot game and backchecks like a man possessed.

You think all of this is not going to factor in Marner's contract? Dubas screwed up BIG TIME; blame Dubas for the 11.6M for 5 year term of Matthews

 

[biotk]

I know Matthews should dominate with any linemates but it truly blows my mind that Babcock hasn't put him back with Nylander.

Why should Matthews dominate with any linemates? This isn't the 80s when teams had poor skating D, AHL quality fourth lines, and minimal structure and systems. No one dominates with poor linemates.

 

[biotk]

Dubas foresight, which is a HUGE requirement to be a competent manager is basically non-existent. He could have had Matthews at around Eichel's contract for 8 years

He could have? Based on what evidence? Your feels?