News Article: Has Matthews Plateaud? by Bruce Arthur -- Mod warning post #127

[ORRFForever]

Like him or not, agree with him or not, Arthur is a terrific thought provoking writer...

Bruce Arthur: The Leafs are waiting for Auston Matthews’ next leap forward

Bruce Arthur: The Leafs are waiting for Auston Matthews’ next leap forward

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[Leafs at Knight]

Yikes.

 

[ORRFForever]

"Mitch Marner is scoring slightly more points than Matthews per minute played, and jumps off the page when you watch the games"

"Again, the 21-year-old Matthews is great; he just hasn’t accelerated the way the team’s de facto first-line stars have, and they get most of the toughest competition."

"The playoffs are coming, and Boston awaits, and Matthews had one goal and two points in that seven-game playoff loss to the Bruins last season. He expected better. He probably still does."

All true, things I have said in the past (patting myself on the back), and nicely written.

 

[ORRFForever]

I'm off to bed and when I awake, I expect to read how Bruce Arthur doesn't know his ass from a hole in the ground and this article is B.S..

Of course, everyone is entitled to their opinion, but please keep in mind that he is paid (well) to write about the Leafs - and, to the best of my knowledge, no one here is.

As for me : I feel what he wrote is spot on. Matthews needs to kick it up a notch or 2.

 

[TML Dynasty]

Yep. Great player and is obviously putting up points but after seeing how he looks when he's 'on' is tough to watch him seem to just float. When he's 'on' he drives the play and absolutely dominates.....I wanna see that guy more. Growing pains so Ill be patient with our superstar.

 

[KE19]

He has.

At the start of the season he was entering the zone carrying the puck with ease and was dominating possession.

He looks stuck in mud in comparison right now.

 

[Leafs at Knight]

I'm off to bed and when I awake, I expect to read how Bruce Arthur doesn't know his ass from a hole in the ground and this article is B.S..

Of course, everyone is entitled to their opinion, but please keep in mind that he is paid (well) to write about the Leafs - and, to the best of my knowledge, no one here is.

As for me : I feel what he wrote is spot on. Matthews needs to kick it up a notch or 2.

Just stop lol

 

[HomerJLeafs]

He looks so miserable on the ice. Like he has no fun playing hockey. I dont know what it is but when he played with William Nylander they always talked on the bench, always smiling, always "f*** yeah baby".

 

[Nithoniniel]

Of course, everyone is entitled to their opinion, but please keep in mind that he is paid (well) to write about the Leafs - and, to the best of my knowledge, no one here is.

Nice appeal to authority. So let's review whether or not he's actually plateaued:

- He's gone from around 70-82-95 in point pace.
- That's the current pace, in his worst slump of the season. He's previously paced for over 100 points for most of the season.
- He's doing that without getting the prime PP time that most young stars get.
- In fact, if you take ice time opportunity into account, he's performed better in his ELC than anybody since Crosby, in large part due to his growth as a player.
- His play driving has improved.
- His increase comes despite getting less effective linemates. Last year, Nylander and Hyman combined for about 90 points at even strength, the wingers that Matthews has played with so far is combining for lower than that.
- He was really sheltered when he came into the league, he's not sheltered any longer.

It's fine to say that he looks like he's playing with less intensity. I think most of us would agree that he's not as relentless in his puck pursuit, or that he doesn't own the puck like he does at his best. But there's no case that he's plateaued.

Let's look at that article:

- He uses only 5-on-5, while Matthews has taken a massive leap forward on the PP.
- He claims most young top players face the toughest opposition, which isn't true.
- He doesn't use any kind of context to his numbers.
- He picks his spots in the kind of numbers he uses. First it's even strength per 60 for one thing, then it's relative to the league in another, and then he'll look at goals for without context for a third. These just happens to be the exact metrics to make things look their worst for what he's arguing.
- Like I said above, he decided to print this article right in Matthews' biggest slump in the season, to draw conclusions on how that season has gone. That's literally waiting for things to look their worst before claiming that things are bad.
- He mentions the wingers, does not go into detail, and then doesn't account for it at all.
- And then, in an article about how Matthews isn't getting better, he takes a shot at him for past performances. Which makes no sense at all.

 

[MyBudJT]

Nice appeal to authority. So let's review whether or not he's actually plateaued:

- He's gone from around 70-82-95 in point pace.
- That's the current pace, in his worst slump of the season. He's previously paced for over 100 points for most of the season.
- He's doing that without getting the prime PP time that most young stars get.
- In fact, if you take ice time opportunity into account, he's performed better in his ELC than anybody since Crosby, in large part due to his growth as a player.
- His play driving has improved.
- His increase comes despite getting less effective linemates. Last year, Nylander and Hyman combined for about 90 points at even strength, the wingers that Matthews has played with so far is combining for lower than that.
- He was really sheltered when he came into the league, he's not sheltered any longer.

It's fine to say that he looks like he's playing with less intensity. I think most of us would agree that he's not as relentless in his puck pursuit, or that he doesn't own the puck like he does at his best. But there's no case that he's plateaued.

Let's look at that article:

- He uses only 5-on-5, while Matthews has taken a massive leap forward on the PP.
- He claims most young top players face the toughest opposition, which isn't true.
- He doesn't use any kind of context to his numbers.
- He picks his spots in the kind of numbers he uses. First it's even strength per 60 for one thing, then it's relative to the league in another, and then he'll look at goals for without context for a third. These just happens to be the exact metrics to make things look their worst for what he's arguing.
- Like I said above, he decided to print this article right in Matthews' biggest slump in the season, to draw conclusions on how that season has gone. That's literally waiting for things to look their worst before claiming that things are bad.
- He mentions the wingers, does not go into detail, and then doesn't account for it at all.
- And then, in an article about how Matthews isn't getting better, he takes a shot at him for past performances. Which makes no sense at all.

At they end of the day, the 'eye-test' says a lot, though.

Matthews is not the same player he was at the start of the season (until he went down with that shoulder injury... THANKS A LOT TROUBA)...

 

[Nineteen67]

At they end of the day, the 'eye-test' says a lot, though.

Matthews is not the same player he was at the start of the season (until he went down with that shoulder injury... THANKS A LOT TROUBA)...

At the beginning of the season everyone is amped up and they were all playing the NHL version of shinny. By the end of October coaches get it settled down and everyone focusses a little more defence.

 

[Nineteen67]

Auston Matthews +/- is a -1 . Yes, some of that is because he played with Marleau, however, that stat is reflective of what we see in his overall play.

 

[Cor]

18th in Point Per Game and he needs to “step up”.

Unless we are talking about a small sample size, in which case this is just an extreme over reaction

 

[MyBudJT]

At the beginning of the season everyone is amped up and they were all playing the NHL version of shinny. By the end of October coaches get it settled down and everyone focusses a little more defence.

I don't buy this regarding Matthews' 'decline'.

Matthews isn't playing the same way as he did prior to his injury. Prior to his injury, the puck was following Matthews. He was also a puck hound, he'd be able to win any puck battle within 10 ft of him. Not only that, he did a better job of finding open space (this latter point may be a result of teams tightening down)... but still, Matthews is not playing at the same level as he did earlier in the season.

 

[MyBudJT]

18th in Point Per Game and he needs to “step up”.

Unless we are talking about a small sample size, in which case this is just an extreme over reaction

Expectations change when you're going to be the 2nd highest paid player in the NHL.

 

[Notsince67]

At they end of the day, the 'eye-test' says a lot, though.

Matthews is not the same player he was at the start of the season (until he went down with that shoulder injury... THANKS A LOT TROUBA)...

100% agree. Everyone witnessed the explosiveness of AM in awe. He couldn't come close to maintaining that except in spurts. I'd call that a bit of a plateau. People will key in on how he isnt plateauing. A plateau doesnt have to be a permanent thing. I think AM will be far greater than he is now. I think he showed how good he can be and then stalled at staying there.

 

[DarkKnight]

Been saying this for awhile, does Matthews have another gear? He's amazing no question, but is he a big game player that finds that little extra when the going gets tough? You're a fool to cast a firm judgement on a young player, but also intellectually dishonest to not understand it's still an open question.

 

[Nineteen67]

I don't buy this regarding Matthews' 'decline'.

Matthews isn't playing the same way as he did prior to his injury. Prior to his injury, the puck was following Matthews. He was also a puck hound, he'd be able to win any puck battle within 10 ft of him. Not only that, he did a better job of finding open space (this latter point may be a result of teams tightening down)... but still, Matthews is not playing at the same level as he did earlier in the season.

Yes. In October, but it’s October. Next October I expect he’ll play like a house on fire. He’s playing exactly how he’s played all of his life only the NHL D are able to contain him for the most part.
Still waiting to see the next gear, if there is one.

 

[TheBeastCoast]

Matthews just needs to find more consistency in his game. To often it seems when things aren't going exactly how he wants them to be going he doesn't really fight for it. He shows flashes of playing mean and angry and then he just kinda fades back. I mean the guy is still a top 10 centre in hockey but there is another level that we need him to get to and hopefully he can find it in time for the playoffs. Because if he gets hard matched against Bergeron again he is going to need to find a way this time.

 

[Kamiccolo]

I really question those who claim he's as good as he always has been. I'm not sure if they are just lying to themselves because of homer glasses or they never played the game or what. Even Babs called him out a bit saying when he skates he is a force.

He doesn't skate anymore.

 

[Nineteen67]

Matthews just needs to find more consistency in his game. To often it seems when things aren't going exactly how he wants them to be going he doesn't really fight for it. He shows flashes of playing mean and angry and then he just kinda fades back. I mean the guy is still a top 10 centre in hockey but there is another level that we need him to get to and hopefully he can find it in time for the playoffs. Because if he gets hard matched against Bergeron again he is going to need to find a way this time.

If he gets hard matched against the Bergeron line then that bodes well for Marner, although I don’t think Babcock will let the Matthews’ line play too much against them.

 

[Gallagbi]

At they end of the day, the 'eye-test' says a lot, though.

Matthews is not the same player he was at the start of the season (until he went down with that shoulder injury... THANKS A LOT TROUBA)...

Looks like the same player he was in last year's playoffs.

Matthews "leap" won't be in goals, points, etc.. it will need to be his impact in key situations and games. Right now he plays vs. second lines mostly doesn't dominate the way you'd expect a player of his caliber to.

 

[Anthrax442]

I feel I just rolled my eyes so hard, they felt it in Japan.

 

[TheBeastCoast]

If he gets hard matched against the Bergeron line then that bodes well for Marner, although I don’t think Babcock will let the Matthews’ line play too much against them.

Yeah but Matthews can't be blown the hell up in that matchup like what happened last year. The Bruins are going to try to hard match Matthews and Bergeron at home and the Leafs will probably try and avoid it in Toronto just like last year....Matthews needs to be better to atleast cancel it out and let Marner and Tavares work on the lesser comp.

 

[Gallagbi]

18th in Point Per Game and he needs to “step up”.

Unless we are talking about a small sample size, in which case this is just an extreme over reaction

What would the 18th highest AAV put him at? I'm betting I'd feel a lot better with his production at that number going in to next year, then again, if he scores 200 points and is a ghost in the playoffs it doesn't really matter