Player Discussion Hampus Lindholm - II

[Zegs2sendhelp]

Hope you guys don’t mind me jumping on the Boston band wagon for the playoffs(hurts me as a yankee fan), but ducks suck and not making it and I’m excited to see lindholm get an opportunity with a good club.

As for his stats from the last couple years I’d prob throw them out the window and judge his play by the next 20 games…. He’s a min eater, that can play in all scenarios(tho doesn’t excel at powerplay)…. He’s good at using his skating/stick and angles vs quick players, but has great size to win battles against big players along the boards and in front of the net.

Very smart player… type of guy you want out on the pk and when holding the lead. He’s not flashy… very meat and potatoes style game that the coaching staff will love. He’s very competitive and hates losing or giving up goals when he is on the ice. He can really be used with mcavoy or Carlo but I imagine based on his past success him and Carlo might bring out the best in each other. He is a conditioning machine, and really puts a strong focus on his conditioning / off season / off day routines.

I think he is a terrific add for your back end and at 6.5 prob going to be a steal for next 5 years, I wouldn’t read too far into his injuries as they were more fluke than repetitive.

Anyway good luck in postseason, I’ll likely be watchjng and cheering and partaking in the gdts

To me this is equivalent to Tampa getting mcdonagh a few years ago (granted no miller here)

 

[weaponomega]

Hampus Lindholm's defensive partners over the last few seasons.

2021-2022 Jamie Drysdale
2020-2021 Kevin Shattenkirk
2019-2020 Josh Manson/Erik Gudbranson
2018-2019 Brandon Montour/Josh Manson

I can't wait to see what he'll do with McAvoy. He probably can't either.

Also Eakins as his coach for the last 3 season certainly doesn't help either.

 

[burstnbloom]

Is that a situation where you’d look at those micro-stats that have him doing the right things a lot or whatever they measure and say that he’s still a good player and with a better team around him, it’ll be more noticeable?

Well from what we've heard from Ducks fans, it sounds like its noticeable even with bad results, so I'd say yes.

 

[22Brad Park]

Every time I think Sweeney has set this team up to fail and that he needs to be fired, he does something like this and completely redeems himself

 

[chizzler]

What number is he taking?

 

[inactive user]

What number is he taking?

27

 

[Ladyfan]

Hope you guys don’t mind me jumping on the Boston band wagon for the playoffs(hurts me as a yankee fan), but ducks suck and not making it and I’m excited to see lindholm get an opportunity with a good club.

As for his stats from the last couple years I’d prob throw them out the window and judge his play by the next 20 games…. He’s a min eater, that can play in all scenarios(tho doesn’t excel at powerplay)…. He’s good at using his skating/stick and angles vs quick players, but has great size to win battles against big players along the boards and in front of the net.

Very smart player… type of guy you want out on the pk and when holding the lead. He’s not flashy… very meat and potatoes style game that the coaching staff will love. He’s very competitive and hates losing or giving up goals when he is on the ice. He can really be used with mcavoy or Carlo but I imagine based on his past success him and Carlo might bring out the best in each other. He is a conditioning machine, and really puts a strong focus on his conditioning / off season / off day routines.

I think he is a terrific add for your back end and at 6.5 prob going to be a steal for next 5 years, I wouldn’t read too far into his injuries as they were more fluke than repetitive.

Anyway good luck in postseason, I’ll likely be watchjng and cheering and partaking in the gdts

To me this is equivalent to Tampa getting mcdonagh a few years ago (granted no miller here)

Welcome . Please join us in the GDTs!

I was just in Anaheim for the Bs game on March 1st. Bs lost

 

[HumBucker]

I'm also going to claim the nickname Hampty Hamp for him

It's undeniably catchy, but something tells me they'll go with Lindy.

 

[Zegs2sendhelp]

Welcome . Please join us in the GDTs!

I was just in Anaheim for the Bs game on March 1st. Bs lost

That may have been our last win lol

 

[DKH]

With the big trade yesterday and the rumored 8 year extension for Hampus Lindholm, I thought it made sense to do a deep dive on what the player we acquired can really do. Trigger warning for the punches/60 crowd. There will be a lot of numbers in this post.

TL/DR: His numbers are bad, but they used to be good, and it seems like that maybe wasn't all his fault. Good move, but some significant risk.

Lindholm is a big man. 6'4, 216 pounds and a physical 2 way d. When I say physical, I don't mean he's a banger because he's not. He's not a hitter either, per se, but he definitely uses his size and his body to protect the puck from his opponents and is one of those "lean on em" guys behind the net. He has a good shot, a really good first pass and appears to have a really high hockey IQ. He also has a history of top pair level D play that has severely waned recently. There is some evidence that he will perform to his previous level when put in a new environment. It's been talked about everywhere that he's been stapled to Jaime Drysdale who is super talented but is also unaware their is a defensive zone. He also plays on a team that is prone to giving up a hell of a lot of chances, and he plays super hard competition. That said, its not JUST Drysdale's fault. He's played over 500 minutes the last two seasons w/o Drysdale and his numbers are actually worse. He's also taking an absolutely insane amount of penalties this year, which really hurts his overall numbers in these models. The models do not love him this year:

View attachment 518687View attachment 518688


There is some hope though. His microstats this year are extremely positive:

View attachment 518690

Corey Sznajder's tireless tracking project shows us exactly who Lindholm is despite his diminished cumulative numbers. It appears that even in a year where his larger numbers are down, He is excellent at defending players entering the zone, he's great at Dzone retreivals, and he's a top tier player when it comes to getting the puck in the D zone and carrying it out. He's also above average at carrying the puck into the ozone, which is a nice surprise. What I find really interesting is how good he appears to be at Shot assists in the neutral zone. If you look at all of those things, you can get a picture at what he is as a player. He will stand up and stop players from entering the zone at an elite level. If they do get in, he retrieves the puck at an elite level, and he's able to carry the puck out of the zone at a well above average rate. Once he's out of the zone, he's looking to transition and his passes result in a player going into the ozone and taking a shot at a very VERY high level (96th percentile.) So even when he's giving up a lot of shots/chances/goals in his larger numbers, these microstats paint the picture of who this guy is on the ice quite nicely.

His new contract will reportedly pay him $6.5m a year until he's 36 years old. The models hate that. One of the challenges is the publicly available data models heavily weight by recency (for good reason) so they are going to extrapolate his poor overall numbers the last two years and project forward. Here is Dom's:

View attachment 518691

Some reason for optimism though. His deployment and QOT are going to skyrocket on this team. They also play a zone D here, which tends to really help even the squirreliest D have positive numbers. looking at you Forbort! This is who Lindholm USED to be from age 21-25:

View attachment 518694View attachment 518695

So the EH and Top down models are pretty conclusive on Hampus. He was an absolutely elite player for over 200 games before his play began to drop. There are a lot of reasons you can point to for WHY his play dropped, but it doesn't completely explain it all away. I've tried to isolate a more specific cause from all the numbers but there isn't much. His PDO and on ice s% have all dropped since 18-19 (which are not generally controllable by the player) and his ozone deployment dropped a bit in 18/19 but that has recovered since Drysdale. There just isn't one glaring reason for why his numbers have dipped but they definitely have. The bruins are taking a calculated risk here that Lindholm will return to his previous greatness if put into a better position to succeed. I happen to think his player profile (strengths/weaknesses) uniquely benefit from the change in situation and it makes me optimistic that they will get good value out of this trade/contract at least for the first few years.

Conclusion: This isn't a slam dunk, but it feels like a risk worth taking. I don't believe defense was a major need for this roster, but if you're going to spend on one, I kinda like spending on this guy. He didn't cost what a truly elite D costs in terms of assets or contract but you can squint and see him being that player again in this situation. Good move.

Thanks for this

Because I have Lindholm in SIM and it’s a cap league I was concerned and curious what he would get

Interestingly I pair him with Parayoko who I also have and compare

Well, lo and behold - Lindholm gets the exact same term and aggregate amount 8/52 and with 15 team modified trade towards the end

The dollar’s breakdown I did not check on Parayko but Lindholm was structured very well Later on

Lindholm will be 36 on July 1 2030 when expires ~ not bad

 

[DKH]

It's undeniably catchy, but something tells me they'll go with Lindy.

Hampster & Chipmunk pairing

 

[DKH]

That may have been our last win lol

Ducks in great shape

Two stud centers Zegras & McTavish is a phenomenal foundation

 

[KillerMillerTime]

How can his D zone retrieve exit rate of 27% be so much lower than his combined carry out plus his pass out rates on D zone exits? Would really like to see that detail.

 

[Magnus the Duck]

Ducks in great shape

Two stud centers Zegras & McTavish is a phenomenal foundation

Trading away Lindholm and Manson makes our defense very thin. It is basically Fowler left that is top tier. A few young ones have potential but need good development. We will see what incoming trades Verbeek does until next season, and who takes the next step like Terry did.

 

[DKH]

Trading away Lindholm and Manson makes our defense very thin. It is basically Fowler left that is top tier. A few young ones have potential but need good development. We will see what incoming trades Verbeek does until next season, and who takes the next step like Terry did.

I watch Helleson and that was a heck of a get - he looks like a more structured Carlo

In fairness to Carlo I believe he would be so much better in man to man defense as opposed to the zone Bruins play

Helleson I key on and he looks like he would be excellent in zone

 

[burstnbloom]

Thanks for this

Because I have Lindholm in SIM and it’s a cap league I was concerned and curious what he would get

Interestingly I pair him with Parayoko who I also have and compare

Well, lo and behold - Lindholm gets the exact same term and aggregate amount 8/52 and with 15 team modified trade towards the end

The dollar’s breakdown I did not check on Parayko but Lindholm was structured very well Later on

Lindholm will be 36 on July 1 2030 when expires ~ not bad

Ya - 8 years is a bit risk for any player, especially one who will be in their middle 30's at the end, but that's the cost of doing business in the NHL today. I expect we'll get surplus value in the first 4 years of the deal and hover around breaking even for 1 or 2 more, if we're lucky. Almost none of these contracts end in the black but hopefully we're talking less than 6% of the cap by then.

 

[burstnbloom]

It's undeniably catchy, but something tells me they'll go with Lindy.

It's gotta be Hammer, right? Hammer and Chuck Norris.

 

[Dr Hook]

It's gotta be Hammer, right? Hammer and Chuck Norris.

It's hockey, it could be Hamsy

 

[ODAAT]

while I can`t profess to have watched a ton of Lindholm in the past, listening to, reading from those who have I`m really excited to have him on board, love the size and the fact he`s played in the Western Conference and being involved in physical games isn`t an issue for him. It`ll likely take him a few weeks to settle in and assimilate to the new city, system and teammates but I`m sure he`ll be a terrific upgrade

 

[Dr Hook]

while I can`t profess to have watched a ton of Lindholm in the past, listening to, reading from those who have I`m really excited to have him on board, love the size and the fact he`s played in the Western Conference and being involved in physical games isn`t an issue for him. It`ll likely take him a few weeks to settle in and assimilate to the new city, system and teammates but I`m sure he`ll be a terrific upgrade

I really like the acquisition for the Bruins, too. This was the #1 priority for me this TDL. I hope more is coming, but this was the most immediate and needed move.

 

[ODAAT]

I really like the acquisition for the Bruins, too. This was the #1 priority for me this TDL. I hope more is coming, but this was the most immediate and needed move.

personally I`d like a Forward who plays with fire, grit but , of course, who can also play. Still don`t think this team matches up great against heavier teams, few guys on this team who would , can or are willing to step in if a teammate is having liberties taken with him. Not a clue who that player could be but....

 

[Dr Hook]

personally I`d like a Forward who plays with fire, grit but , of course, who can also play. Still don`t think this team matches up great against heavier teams, few guys on this team who would , can or are willing to step in if a teammate is having liberties taken with him. Not a clue who that player could be but....

For sure- but if they had only one move they could make, for me this was the one. But yeah, a top 6 forward and some sort of grit would be nice.

 

[finchster]

I am fine with this signing

However, we will hate this signing probably by year 4/5.

 

[BruinsFanSince94]

I am fine with this signing

However, we will hate this signing probably by year 4/5.

Why is it a forgone conclusion that Lindholm is going to fall off the map at the end of this deal?

 

[finchster]

Why is it a forgone conclusion that Lindholm is going to fall off the map at the end of this deal?

Because this is the way it goes in the NHL. For every Bergeron or Marchand, there is 5-10 guys out of the league during this age. The Ducks didn't want to sign him long term.

It was the same logic for not signing Torey Krug to this same deal. This deal will be bad in a few years, but I am fine with that right now if it means a good LHS defenceman.

The Bruins have to go for it.