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Value of: Habs 38 OA (2nd round from Chicago) + Habs 67 OA (3rd round)

Fogelhund

Fogelhund

Registered User
Sep 15, 2007
21,269
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I'd think you could move into the 32-35 range..maybe very late first round like 29-31, if the team with that pick thought that their choice would still be there at 38...
 
HOPE

HOPE

Goal Caufield!
Jun 30, 2011
7,336
5,229
Montreal
Nop, i'd rather draft more bodies and hope for the best, In the late rounds theres a bunch of realy good players they just come with risk of boom or bust! Specially Dman or skinny Wingers!

we have basicly a top5, a top 35 and a top 38 and 2 late second! you have alot of chances here! let alone a 3rd, 3x4th and 2x5th. you can definitely hit a homer run and im not even talking about the top 5 pick!

have a "1st round pick next you to your name is just fancy. pick between 25-35 are often interchangeable depending on team needs and how your scout works!
 
Dr Quincy

Dr Quincy

Registered User
Jun 19, 2005
28,713
10,571
boredmale said:
It might be enough to get a very late first(like 28-31), more likely in to 30-33 range though
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Pretty much this, but most studies show it would be stupid for them to do. Unless they are really high on a specific player who is there when a certain pick is on the board... generally your chances of hitting on someone at 29 is the same as it is at 38... and 67 isn't much lower.
 

member 147413

Guest
I offer the Leafs 1st, if a 4th round pick next year is added.

Tor 1st

For

Mtl 2nd + Mtl 3rd + Mtl 4th 2019
 

FameFlame069

Registered User
Oct 2, 2017
2,992
546
boredmale said:
Just using similar deals recently Islanders and Tampa made 2 different trades in 2014(35 + 58 for 28) and 2015(33 and 73 for 28)
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To be frank, starting with 38 you add a late 2nd to make the jump to the 1st round (something around 55-62) to jump into the last 4 picks in the 1st round
 
firstemperor

firstemperor

Registered User
May 25, 2011
8,755
1,445
FishManSam said:
I offer the Leafs 1st, if a 4th round pick next year is added.

Tor 1st

For

Mtl 2nd + Mtl 3rd + Mtl 4th 2019
Click to expand...

It would have to be two 2nd's at minimum. The draft is still about ~25-29 players heavy for me. Once you get to around 35-39, there's a quality drop off, maybe earlier. I leave some margin of error because there's always reaches.

For example, if we're looking at C's, by the time the mid 30 pick rolls around, your well past Dellandrea, Olofsson, Lundestrom territory...and perhaps Wise as well.

I don't buy the 20-50 narrative as others. It's a deep draft but your getting more quality into the 20's, especially in regards to ceiling than you would into the 30's and onwards.

There's uncertainty on our pick too
 
Deficient Mode

Deficient Mode

Registered User
Mar 25, 2011
60,348
2,397
38 OA+67 OA are worth more than a late first

Basically a crap shoot after around 25

Just make the picks
 
Brodeur

Brodeur

Registered User
Feb 27, 2002
26,115
15,753
San Diego
Deficient Mode said:
38 OA+67 OA are worth more than a late first

Basically a crap shoot after around 25

Just make the picks
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It depends. I think some people look at it as moving up X number of spots rather than a team being surprised that there's a guy who's #15 on their board is still available. I suppose I understand the mentality that you'd rather have more darts to throw at the dartboard, but you would hope your team of scouts might be able to identify somebody worth moving up for.

The draft pick value charts are a nice reference but each draft year is unique. Sportsnet had a 31 Thoughts podcast with a guy who now works for Columbus and he started out by making a value chart. I didn't agree with everything he said, but I could understand that they're trying to figure out the perceived value of a pick versus what it's actually worth.

In the late 90s, early 2000s, Dallas made a few 'late firsts for early seconds and an extra pick' type trades. When you replace the picks with the actual players who were drafted.....

1998: Dallas trades #27 (Scott Gomez) to New Jersey for #39 (John Erskine) and #57 (Tyler Bouck)
1999: Dallas trades #28 (Kristian Kudroc) to NY Islanders for #32 (Michael Ryan) and #96 (Matthias Tjarnqvist)
2003: Dallas trades #28 (Corey Perry) to Anaheim for #36 (Vojtech Polak) and #54 (B.J. Crombeen)

You could also add in their trade downs in 2002/2004 which netted Alex Semin and Travis Zajac for the teams moving up and not so much for Dallas moving down with the extra picks. As an added note, according to Craig Button, the Dallas scouts asked Bob Gainey to trade up in 1998 for Jiri Fischer but Gainey thought he'd drop to #27 (Detroit would end up taking him #25).
 
Deficient Mode

Deficient Mode

Registered User
Mar 25, 2011
60,348
2,397
Brodeur said:
It depends. I think some people look at it as moving up X number of spots rather than a team being surprised that there's a guy who's #15 on their board is still available. I suppose I understand the mentality that you'd rather have more darts to throw at the dartboard, but you would hope your team of scouts might be able to identify somebody worth moving up for.

The draft pick value charts are a nice reference but each draft year is unique. Sportsnet had a 31 Thoughts podcast with a guy who now works for Columbus and he started out by making a value chart. I didn't agree with everything he said, but I could understand that they're trying to figure out the perceived value of a pick versus what it's actually worth.

In the late 90s, early 2000s, Dallas made a few 'late firsts for early seconds and an extra pick' type trades. When you replace the picks with the actual players who were drafted.....

1998: Dallas trades #27 (Scott Gomez) to New Jersey for #39 (John Erskine) and #57 (Tyler Bouck)
1999: Dallas trades #28 (Kristian Kudroc) to NY Islanders for #32 (Michael Ryan) and #96 (Matthias Tjarnqvist)
2003: Dallas trades #28 (Corey Perry) to Anaheim for #36 (Vojtech Polak) and #54 (B.J. Crombeen)

You could also add in their trade downs in 2002/2004 which netted Alex Semin and Travis Zajac for the teams moving up and not so much for Dallas moving down with the extra picks. As an added note, according to Craig Button, the Dallas scouts asked Bob Gainey to trade up in 1998 for Jiri Fischer but Gainey thought he'd drop to #27 (Detroit would end up taking him #25).
Click to expand...

The draft value charts aren't perfect but they definitely support the notion that the value you'll get for packaging multiple picks isn't nearly worth it in terms of eventual games played. If you have faith in your team of scouts you should also trust that they'll be able to identify a good and worthwhile project pick for you later. From the Habs perspective, half of their top 10 prospects a year ago (Mete, Lindgren, Scherbak, Hudon, Juulsen) have moved up to the NHL full-time this year by the look of it. They fully need to restock in quantity and not just quality. None of those second round picks would get crowded out of a potential spot on the team in a couple years.

The Stars' history of first round picks when they have made them has also been pretty sketchy to be honest, and you could do the same in reverse for them. For every time Anaheim took Corey Perry while the Stars selected Polak and Crombeen, you have a draft where the Stars took Oleksiak and the Ducks took Rakell and Gibson in late first/early second spots.
 

howkie

Registered User
Dec 13, 2014
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Benstheman said:
I think i once seen one for NHL. I'll try to find it
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Leafs-Ducks, when Ducks got Rakell and Gibson (or was Rakell the last first roun pick, cant remember)
Burke is on Chia level when it comes to talents..
 
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