The cap is expected to stay at 81.5M next season, the Habs currently are at just under 66M but for only 7F, 6D, 2G from the current roster. Plus we know we will lose one player to the expansion draft.
UFA's -
Joel Armia - 2.6M
Alex Belzile - 700K
Phillip Danault - 3,083,333
Vasili Demchenko - 792,500K
Michael Frolik - 750K
Charlie Lindgren - 750K
Corey Perry - 750K cap hit
Thomas Tatar - 5.3M (4.8 for Habs)
Jordan Weal - 1.4M
RFA's -
Brandon Baddock - 700K
Joseph Blandisi - 700K
Laurent Dauphin - 700K
Cale Fleury - 771,666K
Jesperi Kotkaniemi - 925K
Artturi Lekonen - 2.4M
Otto Leskinen - 925K
Jacob Lucchini - 700K
Victor Mete - 735K
Michael McNiven - 700K
Gustav Olofsson - 750k
Michael Pezzetta - 743,333K
Ryan Poehling - 925K
Lukas Vejdemo - 700K
Hayden Verbeek - 753,333K
we are currently at 47 contracts
I assume it will stay at 81.5M but, I think that what is more important is that it will remain a flat Cap. What that means is it won't be directly linked to the actual 50\50 split called upon by the CBA. I've heard it mentioned that, under this structure, there might be a 1M raise in the Cap ceiling to 82.5M to offer some relief for Cap-strapped teams. The league would rather do this than allow for amnesty buyouts again, from what I heard.
Still, we'll go with a Cap at 81.5M for this exercise...
I hope we can find a way to extend both Tatar and Danault to reasonable contracts. Next priority after them is Armia. The rest of the UFA: IDGAF.
As for our RFAs: bridge Kotkaniemi, Lehkonen (1-year cheaper deal), Fleury, Mete, and Poehling. Extend McNiven to backup Primeau in AHL. The rest: IDGAF.
Unless I'm wrong, Lehkonen can't be offered less than he is currently making, plus he's arbitration eligible, if I'm not mistaken.
Don't see that happening.
Personally, since we need to make some Cap space, whatever happens in the next two years, as both Suzuki and Romanov will need to be extended after next season, once Kotkaniemi has been extended after this season, I think it's a question of choices.
Do you want stronger depth in Danault and Tatar than Armia and Lehkonen? Byron is basically an anchor of a contract for a player relegated to 4th line duties and specialty team missions on the PK when there are half a dozen other candidates to adequately pull off this missions on the roster already!
My answer is a resounding YES!
I would opt to move all three of Byron, Armia and Lehkonen (in diminishing Cap order) in the short term and consider trading Kulak as well to provide the necessary short term Cap relief.
It's quality depth, IMO, but not depth that can't be replaced, in a 4th line role, for the most part, from within for cheaper.
Byron (3.4M)
Armia (2.6M)
Lehkonen (2.4M)
IMO, while genuine quality depth, all three players, except for Armia, are overpaid for their current roles on the team but, both Armia and Lehkonen will expect raises this offseason. Of the two, Armia has more leverage but, I can't see Lehkonen getting less than 2.75M either. How much will Armia expect, especially if he performs well with KK and Tofolli?
Within the system, who can replace these three at a much cheaper Cap hit?
Byron's younger clone is, essentially, Ylonen, hell on skates (not wheels), defensively sound and boasting offensive upside as well.
Lehkonen can be replaced by Poehling, who will be on a cheap second contract since he has not even been a regular to date in the NHL with his contract due to be extended at the same time as Kotkaniemi in the offseason. If nothing else, Poehling can play defensively and bring that to a 4th line, with a little more physicality than Lehkonen at the same time.
For a third line role alongside Toffoli and Kotkaniemi, Caufield might be up to the task on an ELC with no more than two Level 'A' bonuses, much like Suzuki's ELC. Montreal, at the most, would be on the hook for 1.350M should Caufield earn all of the 425K he can aim for in bonuses.
Poehling signing a bridge one-way contract at 1M and Ylonen at 925K, plus Evans at a reasonable contract for a 4th line (I don't see Evans getting any of the two Level 'A' bonuses he can aim for) would free up plenty of Cap space.
There would be 5.125M left over to address raises to Tatar, Danault and Kotkaniemi this coming offseason. At an average of 5.5M for both of Danault and Tatar, whichever way you want to slice that 11M pie, 3.2M would be coming off the 5.125M left.
That would leave strictly 1.925M to bridge Kotkaniemi which, in my mind, would be inadequate. Montreal would need to move Kulak as well to find the extra margin for a reasonable bridge contract nowhere less than 3.5M for a couple of seasons.
Replacing Kulak with an ELC contract at 925K would free up an extra 925K and leave Bergevin with 3.775M to address Kotkaniemi's situation.
Of course, Montreal could move a contract like Chiarot's or Edmundson's instead to free up more Cap space but, the marginal savings that would be added wouldn't provide enough Cap room to do more than bridge Kotkaniemi anyhow.
It's the following season that we would move on (more easily) from Chiarot or from Edmundson, plus Allen, at that point, to free up close to 4.5M once replacements were factored in. We might be forced to also move whichever of Chiarot or Edmundson wasn't initially moved, depending on what opportunities could be negotiated with either Suzuki or Romanov, long term deal VS short bridge contract. The 7.075M, after replacement value for the other veteran D was factored in, could provide many more options; longer bridge contracts, a long term and a shorter term bridge contract, etc.
Other contracts will come off the books shortly thereafter; Drouin at the end of the following season, Tofolli the one right after, Petry a year after that, Weber at any point once he starts earning just 1M in real money for the final three years of his contract, etc.
There's a lot of work to be done, including potentially trading players based on the roster's developing situation along the way.
The Cap will not be an albatross if Bergevin manages it well going forward but, that includes being able to re-sign both Tatar and Danault.