Speculation: Gustafsson

[JaegerDice]

I'm not saying Karlsson is bad in defense. However, if he was excellent, he's on par with Borque and Lidstrom. He has holes in his defensive game. Nothing terrible, but enough to not make him excellent.

I'd say those two are ELITE defensively.

I'd say peak Karlsson is an elite all-around defensemen with a skew towards offense, the same way that peak Keith is an Elite all around defensmen with a skew towards defense. Neither guy is touching Lidstrom or Borque as pure defensive players.

 

[piteus]

I'd say those two are ELITE defensively.

I'd say peak Karlsson is an elite all-around defensemen with a skew towards offense, the same way that peak Keith is an Elite all around defensmen with a skew towards defense. Neither guy is touching Lidstrom or Borque as pure defensive players.

However, if Karlsson was excellent on defense, he would be on par as his offense is superior.

Karlsson doesn't just skew toward elite offensive DMen. Most people will say he is the #2 offensive DMen ever ... after Bobby Orr, but better than Coffey.

 

[HawksBeerFan]

well , let's take a quick look!

we will have almost $19 mil in cap space for next before any cap increases.

here is the players for RFA status for next year:
Forsling
4K
Dahlstrom
Kampf
Sikura
Perlini

let's just assume we tender all of them -

Forsling - $1.5mil
4K - $1.5 mil
Dahlstrom - $1.5 mil
Kampf - $1.5 mil
Sikura - $1.5 mil
Perlini - $1.5 mil

that is $9 mil for 6 roster players...and I would say a few of those offers are a bit generous for now..

that leaves us with $9 mil roughly in space before any cap increase.

now we do some guessing here - let's say the cap goes up $2.5 mil - we now have $11.5 mil in space.
we have traded AA away - we now have $16 mil in space, with an entire roster filled out.

do we want Panarin or not?? okay, we do!! $10 mil to Panarin - leaves us with $6 mil in space.

now- the following year:2020-21-
we need to resign:
Gus
DeBrincat
Strome
Kahun
Hayden

this is where it gets messier no doubt....BUT....
remember Crow comes off the books - so if we had $6 mil in space from 2019-20 - that would give us $12 mil with Crow's money gone. THEN...another small cap increase of say $2.5 mil, and we have $14.5 mil in space to resign the names I listed PLUS either Crow on the cheap or another goalie....

not really ideal, but as I said, this is where it likely means end of the road for Murphy and Saad...both of them get moved out freeing up another $10 mil - giving us $24.5 mil in space to sign said players...much better.

Gus $6 mil
Cat $8 mil
Strome $6.5 mil

that is $20.5 mil to have them signed, leaving us $3.5 mil left for another goalie/Kahun/Hayden...I think Hayden is gone by then regardless and Kahun likely becomes expendable with Kurashev/Barratt ready...

so bottom line we could fit all of them in with Panarin - won't be pretty but we can, and this is without even entertaining Seabs/Keith being moved which could happen,...

Thanks for spelling this out. Looks like you are right that it is possible, it just seems VERY tight and involves a lot of moving pieces. Not sure I'd be willing to do it honestly.

 

[Rolo]

Pretty sure Erik Karlsson has led the league in shot blocks, or was atleast in top 5.

 

[ChiHawks10]

Gus is not good at defense. He's not Manning levels of bad, but neither is anyone else in this league.

But Gus doesn't have to be good defensively. EK has won multiple Norris trophies playing ****-tier defense; his offense won him the award for best defender in the league. Gus isn't near as good offensively as EK was (or is), but he is also a much cheaper player and an EK lite type is an asset to any team in the league. No one here would even be *****ing about him if the rest of our defense could actually defend (I can only imagine how much easier the 2015 cup run would've been with current day Gus behind Keith/Seabs/Hammer/Oduya).

I am one of those who does have interest in trading him away, but that's less to do with who he is, and more to do with what he'll cost after next season is done. We already have Strome and DeBrincat needing to be re-signed and I have to expect that Bowman signs some legit free agent this offseason (whether it's an elite star like Panarin or Stone, or just a really good player like Dzingel). I definitely think Gus could command over $6m, and if we're not competing this season or next, and if we can't afford to keep him around, then I'm personally on the trade him before we loss him for nothing state of mind. But with us being in a playoff spot, I'm okay with that happening in the offseason instead of sometime in the next few days.

You keep saying this, but what is he, then? To me, he's average on D the vast majority of the time(and I don't think I'm alone in this thinking). And then there are times where he has brain farts, and is slightly below average. He's not "bad" or "terrible" or "awful" like some seem to think... if someone thinks that, I immediately question if they know what they're watching. A giveaway once or twice a game or so doesn't constitute "bad" or "awful", despite how egregious. Especially when you pay attention to the good he does on both sides of the puck. It just seems like everyone here is only watching for him to make a mistake, and then screaming about it as soon as he does, while ignoring everything else he does well.

 

[Kaners Bald Spot]

You keep saying this, but what is he, then? To me, he's average on D the vast majority of the time(and I don't think I'm alone in this thinking). And then there are times where he has brain farts, and is slightly below average. He's not "bad" or "terrible" or "awful" like some seem to think... if someone thinks that, I immediately question if they know what they're watching. A giveaway once or twice a game or so doesn't constitute "bad" or "awful", despite how egregious. Especially when you pay attention to the good he does on both sides of the puck. It just seems like everyone here is only watching for him to make a mistake, and then screaming about it as soon as he does, while ignoring everything else he does well.

I agree with this. People also ignore the great defensive plays he makes each and every game too. They have a preconceived notion that he sucks on D and are unable to adjust their opinions to his actual play on the ice. They wait for his occasional screw up and bitch about it like it happens all of the time.

 

[CallMeShaft]

You keep saying this, but what is he, then? To me, he's average on D the vast majority of the time(and I don't think I'm alone in this thinking). And then there are times where he has brain farts, and is slightly below average. He's not "bad" or "terrible" or "awful" like some seem to think... if someone thinks that, I immediately question if they know what they're watching. A giveaway once or twice a game or so doesn't constitute "bad" or "awful", despite how egregious. Especially when you pay attention to the good he does on both sides of the puck. It just seems like everyone here is only watching for him to make a mistake, and then screaming about it as soon as he does, while ignoring everything else he does well.

Giveaways, poor positioning, losing battles; Gus is not good at the defending part of his job. He's below average in this league when only looking at it from a defense point of view. That's not saying he's a liability when he's out there. He's not Manning levels bad and he's not Rozsival circa 14-15 season levels of bad. Hell, he's not Seabrook the last 2 or 3 years level of bad. But that doesn't make him good.

And if you read my entire post that you replied to, you'd see that I paid attention to what he does offensively, going so far as to say that he doesn't need to be good defensively because his offense is such an asset and if he could be sheltered behind a good defense (like what we had during the cup runs), most people wouldn't even bother talking about his lack of defensive prowess.

 

[ChiHawks10]

Giveaways, poor positioning, losing battles; Gus is not good at the defending part of his job. He's below average in this league when only looking at it from a defense point of view. That's not saying he's a liability when he's out there. He's not Manning levels bad and he's not Rozsival circa 14-15 season levels of bad. Hell, he's not Seabrook the last 2 or 3 years level of bad. But that doesn't make him good.

And if you read my entire post that you replied to, you'd see that I paid attention to what he does offensively, going so far as to say that he doesn't need to be good defensively because his offense is such an asset and if he could be sheltered behind a good defense (like what we had during the cup runs), most people wouldn't even bother talking about his lack of defensive prowess.

Disagree on the bolded.

I think anyone who carries this sentiment about him is simply watching only for his bad/mistakes, and completely oblivious to all the good. I don't agree in any way that he is below average in the league, looking at him only from a defensive point of view. Not at all.

On a bad defensive team, he's carrying around a 50.5% CF% and a 49% FF% with a 60/40 split of O starts vs D starts. He's also got an offensive points share of 3.7 and a defensive points share of 2.1. That's not bad. Not when you consider what surrounds him on the blueline, what he has had in net most nights with Ward, and the fact that his forwards don't seem to be in the mood to play in their own zone most nights... That's about average. Both the stats, and the eye test say so.

Agree to disagree.

 

[BobbyJet]

I agree with this. People also ignore the great defensive plays he makes each and every game too. They have a preconceived notion that he sucks on D and are unable to adjust their opinions to his actual play on the ice. They wait for his occasional screw up and ***** about it like it happens all of the time.

Man, does that sound familiar!

 

[piteus]

I agree with this. People also ignore the great defensive plays he makes each and every game too. They have a preconceived notion that he sucks on D and are unable to adjust their opinions to his actual play on the ice. They wait for his occasional screw up and ***** about it like it happens all of the time.

Gus has the talent to be a decent 2nd pairing DMen in his own zone. He needs to do 2 things:

1. Dig the corners a bit harder and be better behind the net. It feels like his man/line can eat, sleep, and poop behind the net when Gus is on the ice. Please win a puck battle behind the net.

2. Stop turning the puck over up the middle. This can be easily corrected.

 

[Hattrick Kane]

Nobody on this team is really good at defending once the other team gets set up in the zone. I have no idea if it’s the players or JC’s system but the amount of goals scored for 5 feet in front of the net is shocking.

So I can’t really fault Gus in that sense when everyone else is just as bad. The point being, the Hawks won’t be contenders until the defense gets a total makeover.

 

[CallMeShaft]

Disagree on the bolded.

I think anyone who carries this sentiment about him is simply watching only for his bad/mistakes, and completely oblivious to all the good. I don't agree in any way that he is below average in the league, looking at him only from a defensive point of view. Not at all.

On a bad defensive team, he's carrying around a 50.5% CF% and a 49% FF% with a 60/40 split of O starts vs D starts. He's also got an offensive points share of 3.7 and a defensive points share of 2.1. That's not bad. Not when you consider what surrounds him on the blueline, what he has had in net most nights with Ward, and the fact that his forwards don't seem to be in the mood to play in their own zone most nights... That's about average.

Agree to disagree.

That's fine, agree to disagree. I don't need to get in a fight with you anyhow. You'd just unleash your big bro on me.

 

[ChiHawks10]

That's fine, agree to disagree. I don't need to get in a fight with you anyhow. You'd just unleash your big bro on me.

 

[piteus]

Nobody on this team is really good at defending once the other team gets set up in the zone. I have no idea if it’s the players or JC’s system but the amount of goals scored for 5 feet in front of the net is shocking.

So I can’t really fault Gus in that sense when everyone else is just as bad. The point being, the Hawks won’t be contenders until the defense gets a total makeover.

That's a valid point. Even Keith is struggling.

 

[CallMeShaft]

Nobody on this team is really good at defending once the other team gets set up in the zone. I have no idea if it’s the players or JC’s system but the amount of goals scored for 5 feet in front of the net is shocking.

So I can’t really fault Gus in that sense when everyone else is just as bad. The point being, the Hawks won’t be contenders until the defense gets a total makeover.

I said it yesterday in the GDT and got hounded, but I have some level of doubt about Colliton's man-on-man systems. I'm willing to give him a full off-season (and a couple months of real games next season) before I start going all BWC on him, but I haven't liked the early returns.

Offense is another story (damn did that ever do a 180 after Q left).

 

[BobbyJet]

Nobody on this team is really good at defending once the other team gets set up in the zone. I have no idea if it’s the players or JC’s system but the amount of goals scored for 5 feet in front of the net is shocking.

So I can’t really fault Gus in that sense when everyone else is just as bad. The point being, the Hawks won’t be contenders until the defense gets a total makeover.

Or should it read:
The point being, the Hawks won’t be contenders until the forwards and defense learn to play defensive hockey as a team. If that involves a total makeover, so be it.

 

[AmericanDream]

I thought Forsling played well last night, I want to see much more with that, and for those that keep calling Gus bad defensively, I am just not seeing what you are seeing. he walks a tight rope, he lives and dies by the sword, but for the most part he has made some of the best defensive plays I have seen of late on many odd man rushes etc...he needs to take out the traffic/bodies in front of the net better, but all skilled PMDs do,.I am not seeing him getting beat in our zone much either, he struggles when he gets trapped in the o zone on a bad read/pinch, and that will get better with maturation and more familiarity with the league. Gus is much more than just a #4 dman, he is a work in progress, but he does far more right than he does wrong each night...

 

[Illinihockey]

Gus is terrible at D, Forsling is worse. Lol about Gus getting better with maturation. He's about to turn 27, he is what he is.

 

[BobbyJet]

I thought Forsling played well last night, I want to see much more with that, and for those that keep calling Gus bad defensively, I am just not seeing what you are seeing. he walks a tight rope, he lives and dies by the sword, but for the most part he has made some of the best defensive plays I have seen of late on many odd man rushes etc...he needs to take out the traffic/bodies in front of the net better, but all skilled PMDs do,.I am not seeing him getting beat in our zone much either, he struggles when he gets trapped in the o zone on a bad read/pinch, and that will get better with maturation and more familiarity with the league. Gus is much more than just a #4 dman, he is a work in progress, but he does far more right than he does wrong each night...

I understand that folks are looking for positives and Forsling had a few good plays last night but if you and others don't see how weak Forsling is in his own zone along with the constant puck watching, leaving ops players unchecked, I guess you never will.

 

[Illinihockey]

I understand that folks are looking for positives and Forsling had a few good plays last night but if you and others don't see how weak Forsling is in his own zone along with the constant puck watching, leaving ops players unchecked, I guess you never will.

Forsling isn't a NHL player. I'm with you.

 

[ChiHawks10]

Gus is terrible at D, Forsling is worse. Lol about Gus getting better with maturation. He's about to turn 27, he is what he is.

Neither the eye test, nor the stats back this up.

And... he has a whopping 134 games played in the NHL, whether he's 26 or not. He's still maturing to the NHL game. He's essentially in his sophomore season right now.

And you coach?

 

[AmericanDream]

I understand that folks are looking for positives and Forsling had a few good plays last night but if you and others don't see how weak Forsling is in his own zone along with the constant puck watching, leaving ops players unchecked, I guess you never will.

I have been very very hard on Forsling, I just said he played good yesterday...some said I have been unfair to Forsling so me saying he played good yesterday is a step out of my comfort zone with him. I need to see a hell of a lot more to want him around, unfortunately he might only have 5 more days to show that here.

 

[AmericanDream]

Gus is terrible at D, Forsling is worse. Lol about Gus getting better with maturation. He's about to turn 27, he is what he is.

lol

 

[Illinihockey]

Neither the eye test, nor the stats back this up.

And... he has a whopping 134 games played in the NHL, whether he's 26 or not. He's still maturing to the NHL game. He's essentially in his sophomore season right now.

And you coach?

If you can't watch Gus and not see he's bad at defense I don't know what to tell you. His ideal role is 3rd pairing bum slayer that gets juicy zone starts. He's a winger playing defense which means he gets a lot of points so some people think he's good. He isn't and the fact he's in the Hawks top 4 is a big reason why their defense is the worst in the league. Somehow with Seabrook out, its got even worse.

 

[LDF]

Giveaways, poor positioning, losing battles; Gus is not good at the defending part of his job. He's below average in this league when only looking at it from a defense point of view. That's not saying he's a liability when he's out there. He's not Manning levels bad and he's not Rozsival circa 14-15 season levels of bad. Hell, he's not Seabrook the last 2 or 3 years level of bad. But that doesn't make him good.

And if you read my entire post that you replied to, you'd see that I paid attention to what he does offensively, going so far as to say that he doesn't need to be good defensively because his offense is such an asset and if he could be sheltered behind a good defense (like what we had during the cup runs), most people wouldn't even bother talking about his lack of defensive prowess.

esp in front area of his net.