OK, so the numbers you posted suggest that Gretzky's total shots went down 11% in the last 32 games in 85/86 - while his shooting % went down the whole 30%. If his shooting % was the same in the first 48 and last 32 games, he would be pacing for 61 goals in the first part of the season and 54 goals in the second part, hardly a big difference. With the abysmal shooting %, he was pacing for 38 goals in the second part, and that's how, with some revisionist history, we have the story of Gretzky focusing on the assists (and apparently shooting at the goaltender's belly on purpose).
You seem to be conflating two arguments in your response:
1. Whether Gretzky traded goals for assists
2. Whether it made a big difference
Establishing 2 does not refute 1. I agree with you that many posters exaggerate the difference, and that people incorrect claim that Gretzky's entire goal scoring decline was simply a result of trading goals for assists (his overall effectiveness clearly declined from his peak, and then took a steep drop again after 1991). With Gretzky already being more on the playmaking side of things, it meant that he had less room to move down the goals/assists curve while still being efficient in terms of taking advantage of his scoring chances. We're clearly in agreement that if you're scoring 200+ points, you aren't going to score only, say, 20 goals, because doing that would actually give up so many potential offensive opportunities that you wouldn't hit 200 points in the first place. We're just arguing over how far you can go before it starts hurting you.
I have some degree of confidence about this because I've done some research on goals/assist splits. If you look at top-line calibre offensive players over multiple season samples, virtually everyone scores at least 20% of their even strength points as goals, and at least 35% of their even strength points as assists. The vast majority actually end up more between 25% and 40%, but the first two numbers represent more of the theoretical maximum. I definitely think anybody going below either 20% goals or 35% assists is hurting their overall output for sure, and it's very likely also true that a playmaker type getting near 50% goals or a shoot-first player going below 40% goals is also giving up effectiveness in pursuit of those stats.
Over the final 32 games of 1985-86, 21% of Gretzky's even strength points were goals, which again seems to reflect a scenario of him maximizing his level of assists.
Gretzky Percentage of ESG/ESP:
1982: 46%
1983: 36%
1984: 41%
1985: 37%
1986 (first 48): 30%
1986 (last 32): 21%
1987: 34%
1988: 29%
1989: 38%
At 30% even strength points being goals, which was consistent with Gretzky's first half and his following seasons, he'd have gone from 12 even strength goals in the last 32 games to 17 (difference of 5). If he did 34% for the entire season, he'd have scored 49 goals total (difference of 11). I'd say a reasonable estimate of his even strength tradeoff of goals for assists would be around those benchmarks.
On special teams you will see a greater degree of specialization, so that depends on a player's role. I doubt Gretzky passed up too many power play goals in 1985-86, it looks like he got lucky in the first half and overall ended up coming in very close to what he was producing in terms of power play goals in the surrounding seasons. While shorthanded I think Gretzky definitely gave up goals, based on his G/A split relative to the rest of his career. So my conservative estimate of his overall trade-off in 1985-86 would be about 12 goals (5 ES, 7 PK).
We do not know about their luck, we do not have Gretzky's on ice shooting %. Probably their luck was average, they just started shooting more for whatever reason (some of them caught fire, their opponents were weak on D, or maybe Gretzky did help them by getting them the puck exactly when they had the open lane).
His linemates took more shots, Gretzky got them the puck in the open lane, are you disagreeing with me or agreeing with me that Gretzky was focusing on scoring assists? We don't know their shots, we don't know the shot distribution, we just know that Gretzky recorded relatively more assists and a similar rate of points, which certainly implies that they took more shots or that they finished at a higher rate to compensate for Gretzky's personal stats, thereby balancing out his overall on-ice shooting %. Neither of those two things is inconsistent with Gretzky trying to rack up a lot of assists.
If his puck luck had been the same in both parts of the season, his goal-scoring rate would have been different by 7 goals per 80, or roughly 3 goals per 32. So he gave up 3 goals. Big freaking deal. That’s all his effort to trade goals for assists was good for.
He raised his previous assist record by 28, and averaged over 2 per game, that seems like a pretty good outcome.
Again, I don't buy that his shot distribution was exactly the same, or that the shot distribution of his teammates was exactly the same, which is why I think he gave up more goals than that.
So there you go, that's how we got the assists record, not by Gretzky willing it to happen and trading goals for assists.
Weakness of opposition has zero impact on Gretzky trading goals for assists. I brought up opposition because you were the one that speculated that Gretzky was at his playmaking peak. I agree Gretzky got the assists record in part because of weak competition, but it was also because he was aiming to score a lot of assists. Both things can be true at the same time.
Without the extra points from playing WPG/LAK/VAN, Gretzky would have ended up around 201 points. Assume he traded 12 goals for assists, take the same goals/assists ratio, and that gives him 60 goals and 141 assists. So I do think that Gretzky's playmaking ability was likely very close to 1984-85 (135 assists), what changed was the weaker competition, his G/A split at ES and on the PK, and a slightly higher individual points percentage on the power play (he was likely fortunate to pick up an extra 4-5 PPA that season, based on his typical rate of points on power play goals while he was on the ice).
Now, give Gretzky extra 15% in 2-3 years of your choice - will it make a difference?
No, not much. Unadjusted leads of Hull and Howe still blow him out of the water. Their (and Ovechkin's) longevity as a legit goal-scoring title challenger still blow him out of the water.
Once we do the era adjustment for Hull and Howe, we still have the same question comparing Gretzky with Howe, Hull, Ovechkin: are two years of superior peak worth 5-6 extra Rocket-worthy years? You can make Gretzky's peak somewhat more superior, or make his drop-off from the peak somewhat slower by adding those few extra goals he could have scored, but that will not change the overall picture.
I believe my comment referred to "people in this thread", not you specifically. I actually agree that Gretzky's career curve likely doesn't change all that much, and there are other considerations to be accounted for anyway such as era adjustments and factoring in things like deployment, usage and teammates, but a lot of people are looking at raw goal totals, including raw career goal totals. For them, adding an extra bunch of goals matter.
Even some conservative assumption like adding 7 goals to Gretzky in 1985-86 moves him from 6th to 3rd, so that certainly makes a difference for people who simply count goal finishes. If we give him 12 extra goals, then he finishes either first or second to Kurri, depending on how many of Kurri's goals were on extra passes where Gretzky would ordinarily have taken the shot. Again, this doesn't seem unreasonable at all to me considering Gretzky led the league in goals every other season from 1981-82 to 1986-87.
Note that I'm not making a general claim about Gretzky overall, as to whether he could have scored more. I think he definitely could have shot more on the power play, just as a minimum, particularly from 1984-85 to 1990-91 before his overall finishing rate dropped off substantially. Otherwise his ES and PK goal/assist splits were relatively consistent, so they were likely not too far from his optimal distribution. I really doubt he could have, for example, scored more goals than assists at ES without losing overall effectiveness. I just think it's pretty clear that he made some tradeoffs in 1985-86 specifically.
Why would he do that if he is going for maximizing his assists? Why take a low-chance shot if you can pass and you are actually looking to pass more?
The whole idea that a person looking to become more of a playmaker will take more low-quality shots and see his shots totals stay almost the same as before, but will see his shooting % drop looks very forced to me.
What a player looking to become more of a playmaker will do is he will not be shooting in cases when the shot has a low chance. Those low-chance shots will be the first ones a playmaker will eliminate in favor of making a pass. So it is the number of shots, not the shooting percentage that should drop if a player switches to more of a playmaker role.
I don't agree that there is a universal rule about how to become more of a playmaker, it depends entirely on the player. Wayne Gretzky had a slapshot that was actually a reasonably dangerous weapon and accounted for a fair number of his goals in the mid-'80s. That is not at all comparable to Thornton or Oates, who would have had the typical playmaker distribution of shots taken relatively close to the net. Watch Gretzky in highlights, he often comes over the blueline, pulls up and cuts across the middle, then uses a fake shot to try to freeze the defence before either changing the angle for a closer shot or setting up a pass. But that decoy doesn't work if you never shoot, so it's just basic game theory that he had to shoot enough to force the defence to continue to respect the shot.
Look at career shooting percentage for guys like Thornton or Oates - is it abysmally low? No, it is quite normal, even though neither had much of a shot. But they tended to use this relatively weak shot of theirs in high-chance situations and pass otherwise, and that's how their shooting % is the same as Ovechkin's, who has a rocket of a shot, but shoots in every situation he can, including some situations in which Thornton would not even think of shooting.
It is shot volume, not shooting percentage that sets Ovechkin and Thornton apart, it is the fact that Ovechkin is dangerous from many more positions that makes Ovechkin a better goal-scorer. And that's how Gretzky becoming more of a playmaker should look like: way less shots, same shooting percentage. And that's how it actually looked like when Gretzky lost his goal-scoring touch in the 90s. But 85/86 was not it.
I think everyone who goes from a goal threat to an all-out playmaker would see their shooting percentage drop. Thornton's did, Oates' did.
I agree on Thornton and late career Gretzky, but I don't see how you can argue that Oates' shooting percentage dropped when you adjust for era.
Seasons | G | S | S% | Avg S% | Adj S% |
1986-90 | 77 | 593 | 13.0% | 12.3% | 11.4% |
1991-94 | 122 | 781 | 15.6% | 11.4% | 14.9% |
1995-04 | 142 | 1018 | 13.9% | 9.8% | 15.3% |
[TBODY]
[/TBODY]
Sure looks to me like Oates saw his shots drop off significantly, while maintaining his shooting percentage relative to the rest of the league. Once again, you seem to believe in universal rules, while I think your model is too simple and real life is more complicated than that.
Oh well, look, we found the 7 extra goals per season Gretzky could have forced to happen instead of assists. Or maybe less, because he was still passing to Coffey when Coffey was in a better position, even in the season when Gretzky scored 87 and 92 goals.
SH goals scored by Coffey, assisted by Gretzky:
1982: 0
1983: 0
1984: 0
1985: 2
1986: 9
1987: 0
I don't see much evidence that Gretzky was ever passing routinely to Coffey in PK scenarios, other than during that one season.