Grabovski vs. Bozak - A Comparison

[TmlStan]

Even if we assume he is a super amazing player who just happened to be slumping, and we assume he played himself into a third line position where he never got a chance to excel and establish that yes, he could play on the second (or first line) through his play (which runs contrary to the first point but hey let's go with it), and we acknowledge he had decent possession numbers in that role (which, iirc, he did), that pretty much means that -- at best -- he's only getting consideration for the third line.

The team felt they had an upgrade for that slot available, and they couldn't find another suitor for Grabovski (I guess 29 other coaches didn't feel he was worth giving up any other asset), so he got bought out. He wasn't going to usurp Kadri this season, if he hadn't in the previous 45 games or so, and he hadn't taken Bozak out of the #1 picture in the preceding few seasons, so aside from shifting him to the wing (I would not have been opposed, I guess) the options were limited.

I mean, I could be wrong, but prior to his injury I think Bolland was getting third line, defence-oriented minutes with comparable if not offensively inferior linemates (Raymond, McClement, Clarkson as his top partners), and he still found ways to produce.

At the time i wanted Grabo to replace Bozak. With the way Bozak played, he was replaceable and Grabo filled most of his responsibilities.

 

[Duke Silver]

Where did you get this information from?

Stats.HockeyAnalysis.com

 

[The_Chosen_One]

Even when Grabovski had JVR and Kulemin as his wingers, he was playing in a shut down role. That is, huge minutes against the top lines and much lower Ozone %. Carlyle tends to shelter his youngster skilled guys, and we see this with Kadri, Gardiner, and Rielly.

It doesn't really matter in the end. Grabovski is gone, and he wouldn't be an ideal centre on Kessel's line. Bozak isn't necessarily ideal, but he is doing a pretty good job right now. Personally, I think Kessel needs a bigger, shoot-first, centre who can use his reach to keep the puck in the offensive zone. These kind of centres who can overpower the opposition in the slot, and perform at a top line level (i.e. Sundin) are not that common, though.

 

[nuck]

How do you prove he was given an offensive role?

If you look at the game logs both Grabo and Kadri had 5 points on their first 5 games. Then Kadri gets 9 points in the next 11 games, and Grabovski gets 1. I think the shift happened in that 11 game stretch. For games 6-10 Grabo averaged 20+ minutes a game and went scoreless. He never got that kind of ice time again. Regardless of what RC might say now, that looks like it.

When their high draft pick breaks out, they have to let him ride the wave as long as he can, and they didn't have the wingers to roll 3 offensive lines. Using 20-20 hindsight, I am not sure a happy ending for MG was possible once Kadri turned the corner. Smallish centers and a soft top 6 were no secret, and while I don't buy the Bozak/chemistry argument, he is younger, uses the body more, is bigger, and better on the faceoff (plus way cheaper).

I probably would have tried him with Kessel, because he was clearly unsuitable for the third line role and RC left him there way too long, or maybe have moved MacArthur and played Grabo on the wing, but barring a monster offensive display, I think he would still be gone and Boz re-signed. Does anybody really think they would dump their biggest center?

 

[LeafsNation75]

I remember the day after opening night Jason Botchford called the Leafs duds for letting Grabovski go because he had a hat trick against the Blackhawks in a game they still lost.

However he never mentioned when Toronto played Montreal that same night Tyler Bozak scored a shorthanded goal late in the 2nd period giving the Leafs a 3-2 lead, then they went onto win 4-3.

Anyway my point is besides that one Grabovski hat trick he hasn't done a lot since. However I say Bozak is playing like a #1 Centre with Kessel and van Riemsdyk which is showing since he returned on December 29th. So it looks like the Leafs made the right decision keeping Bozak and buying out Grabovski.

 

[ForSpareParts*]

Has there ever been more written about a marginal player? Why don't grab fans cheer for the caps or whatever team he goes to after that one?

Exactly! Who cares about a forward on the Capitals! The guy is so unimportant. We have Bernier, JVR, Kessel, and Dion but everyone has to complain about a player who had a key role on a losing team.

 

[Delicious Dangles*]

They obviously benefit from playing with each other, no one is denying this. but Kessel benefits from playing with Bozak too.

Kessel and JVR were pointless and minus machines with Kadri as their Center in the 6 games before Bozak came back for the game against Carolina.

Some may want to write this off as cold and hot streaks. Which equates to the 'what if' argument.

It's not a "what if" argument. It's a "the tiny sample size that directly correlates with Kessel's hot streak isn't enough evidence to count it over the rest of Bozak's career" argument.

Just because Kadri and Kessel don't have chemistry, over a statistically insignificant sample of 6 games in which the team had countless other distractions, injuries and a hard stretch of games, does not instantly mean that Kessel and Bozak DO have chemistry, just because of another statistically insignificant sample where Kessel is on a hot streak, and we are relatively healthy with no distractions.

 

[Delicious Dangles*]

false.

the statistical evidence presented to "prove" that was based on hilariously small sample sizes, and any one who purports to understand stats should be embarassed for having believed that was legitimate statistical proof.

The sample for those statistics were bigger than ones used to try and "prove" that Grabovski did not work with Kessel.

 

[Delicious Dangles*]

Are those the same type of advanced stats that suggest the Leafs record is unsustainable, and they shouldn't have the record they do?

Actually no.

Advanced stats has become a term people use for statistics that are not officially tracked by the NHL. Entirely different from corsi.

 

[Delicious Dangles*]

BULL.

He started the season averaging 18 minutes a game, on the 2nd line, 2nd power play unit. He had playing time with JVR, MacArthur and Kulemin. Kadri was firmly planted behind him on the depth charts. He went 8 games without recording a point, and we all know what happened next. It's Grabovski's fault he ended up bought out. He played himself off the team. The opportunity was there for him to succeed.

Yes, he started the season on the 2nd line. JVR was put on his wing, and they looked very good together and produced. Then Lupul got injured and JVR moved up to Kessel's line, and Grabovski was left to rot for most of the rest of the season.

 

[Garbs]

Yes, he started the season on the 2nd line. JVR was put on his wing, and they looked very good together and produced. Then Lupul got injured and JVR moved up to Kessel's line, and Grabovski was left to rot for most of the rest of the season.

MacArthur was also injured at the same time; Grabovski stayed with Kulemin, Kadri stayed with Frattin, JVR was moved to join Kessel/Bozak to replace Lupul. A victim of circumstance, I suppose. He still averaged 2.5+ power play time a game during this time, and over 18 minutes of ice time. MacArthur eventually returned, but started on the 4th line. In early Feb we played versus Montreal, and MacArthur was back beside Grabovksi and Kulemin. Once again, Carlyle decided he really didn't like what he was seeing in the Mac/Grab pairing, and by the 11th game of the season in which Grabovski did next to nothing offensively on the PP or ES, his fate was set, and MacArthur was pulled from the line to be replaced by Komorov.

Question. Do the Leafs miss Grabovski or MacArthur? Are we a worse team without them? Are Ottawa and Washington better teams with them? Their addition or loss to any team is negligible. The Toronto Maple Leafs have been so devoid of talent the past decade that you think losing these types of players is actually something to talk about. It's not.

 

[zeke]

The sample for those statistics were bigger than ones used to try and "prove" that Grabovski did not work with Kessel.

Agreed.

But both samples were uselessly small.

 

[Patience]

I'm surprised I'm not seeing a discussion of reasons for player incapability. Kadri and Grabovski are at their best with the puck. Kessel is at his best with the puck. It's a waste to pair Kessel with someone like a Kadri or a Grabovski unless on the power play where the team will have a long possession. Kessel doesn't need a stud puck lugging center. Kessel is the man making the plays on that line off the wing. Really he's effectively playing the role of the line's center in the offensive end.

Think about teams with great skilled forwards. Gretzky and Messier. They didn't play together on a regular basis because both demand the puck. Lemieux and Jagr. Same thing. Crosby and Malkin. Sakic and Forsberg. They were all best used apart except on the power play when the team gets 100% possession. I'm not saying Kessel/Kadri/Grabovski are in these players' stratosphere but these are examples of why you don't put a puck skilled guy like Kadri and before him Grabovski with Kessel.

 

[Delicious Dangles*]

MacArthur was also injured at the same time; Grabovski stayed with Kulemin, Kadri stayed with Frattin, JVR was moved to join Kessel/Bozak to replace Lupul. A victim of circumstance, I suppose. He still averaged 2.5+ power play time a game during this time, and over 18 minutes of ice time. MacArthur eventually returned, but started on the 4th line. In early Feb we played versus Montreal, and MacArthur was back beside Grabovksi and Kulemin. Once again, Carlyle decided he really didn't like what he was seeing in the Mac/Grab pairing, and by the 11th game of the season in which Grabovski did next to nothing offensively on the PP or ES, his fate was set, and MacArthur was pulled from the line to be replaced by Komorov.

In the first 10 games, Grabovski had 5 points. That is not "next to nothing offensively". That is actually average to good for a player like him in his position, especially while dealing with a new role, coach, system and rotating linemates of Kulemin/Macarthur/Komarov offensive quality.

Question. Do the Leafs miss Grabovski or MacArthur?

Yes. We would miss him less if Bolland/Bozak didn't get injured, but we would miss him more if Bozak didn't explode with points, Raymond didn't explode with points, and/or we didn't get Holland.

Don't really care about Macarthur.

Are we a worse team without them?

Yes.

Are Ottawa and Washington better teams with them?

Yes

Their addition or loss to any team is negligible. The Toronto Maple Leafs have been so devoid of talent the past decade that you think losing these types of players is actually something to talk about. It's not.

Losing these players is not the end of the world, but that is because we spent assets of multiple forms (picks, prospects, and a compliance buyout) in order for it to have a negligible impact.

 

[Garbs]

Are Ottawa and Washington better teams with them?

Yes.

Here's where I stop talking to you.

 

[Eb]

I remember the day after opening night Jason Botchford called the Leafs duds for letting Grabovski go because he had a hat trick against the Blackhawks in a game they still lost.

However he never mentioned when Toronto played Montreal that same night Tyler Bozak scored a shorthanded goal late in the 2nd period giving the Leafs a 3-2 lead, then they went onto win 4-3.

I remember this. I also remember "Leaf fans" on this site called "hfboards" talking about how good Grabovski.

How sad is that?

 

[Cor]

I remember when I got called an idiot for saying Bozak > Grabo when we signed Bozak to his contract. Then again when the 5 Grabo threads were made in October.

Glad people are finally realizing.

 

[Delicious Dangles*]

Here's where I stop talking to you.

They are. If you took Grabovski and Macarthur off of Ottawa and Washington, they would be worse teams right now. I don't know how you can possibly argue against this fact.

That is 18 goals and 42 points off of Ottawa, destroying their 2nd line, which is the only line going for them.

That is 12 goals and 33 points off of Washington, destroying their 3rd line, which is the only line going for them other than Ovechkin/Backstrom.

I don't know how adding a 50-60 point player to any team for free would hurt that team. Neither are even expensive for what they bring.

I also notice you ignored the other 2 points I destroyed.

 

[ACC1224]

At this point I can't imagine anyone preferring Grabovski over Bozak.

 

[goonx]

In the first 10 games, Grabovski had 5 points. That is not "next to nothing offensively". That is actually average to good for a player like him in his position, especially while dealing with a new role, coach, system and rotating linemates of Kulemin/Macarthur/Komarov offensive quality.


Yes. We would miss him less if Bolland/Bozak didn't get injured, but we would miss him more if Bozak didn't explode with points, Raymond didn't explode with points, and/or we didn't get Holland.

Don't really care about Macarthur.


Yes.


Yes


Losing these players is not the end of the world, but that is because we spent assets of multiple forms (picks, prospects, and a compliance buyout) in order for it to have a negligible impact.

oh gawd.... really?

Washington and Ottawa are both below us in the standings and we are a better team than them. We clearly utilized the capspace saved by letting MacArthur and Grabo go to a better degree than keeping the two.

The only gripe i have is losing these players for nothing. But hey, we needed the depth for our first playoff run and selling these players at the trade deadline would could have been a disaster. Eitherway, if we have gotten some first assets for those two, i would have no problem with them leaving.

grabo and macarthur were worth 1st rounders (Macarthur was conditional) at some point when Burke was here.

 

[Delicious Dangles*]

oh gawd.... really?

Washington and Ottawa are both below us in the standings and we are a better team than them. We clearly utilized the capspace saved by letting MacArthur and Grabo go to a better degree than keeping the two.

Yes, really. You can't just say "they're behind us in the standings, so Grabovski/Macarthur must suck". That is ignoring the countless other problems with those teams, and the fact that we are a better team than them ASIDE from Grabovski/Macarthur.

If you want to play that game, we are actually WORSE than last year, so...

Grabovski is one of the last players Washington fans have a problem with, and ditto for Macarthur and Senators fans. I'm not saying I want them back, but you can't just diminish them and their worth now that they are gone. And fact remains, the whole thing was handled badly.

That cap space that you claim was better utilized went to Bolland and Clarkson, who have spent the majority of the season either injured or sucking. You can argue all you want that they are better players, but either way, they are contributing less this year than Grabovski and Macarthur have for their teams.

The only gripe i have is losing these players for nothing. But hey, we needed the depth for our first playoff run and selling these players at the trade deadline would could have been a disaster. Eitherway, if we have gotten some first assets for those two, i would have no problem with them leaving.

grabo and macarthur were worth 1st rounders (Macarthur was conditional) at some point when Burke was here.

We not only didn't get assets for them, we gave up assets to replace them.

 

[goonx]

Yes, really. You can't just say "they're behind us in the standings, so Grabovski/Macarthur must suck". That is ignoring the countless other problems with those teams, and the fact that we are a better team than them ASIDE from Grabovski/Macarthur.

If you want to play that game, we are actually WORSE than last year, so...

Grabovski is one of the last players Washington fans have a problem with, and ditto for Macarthur and Senators fans. I'm not saying I want them back, but you can't just diminish them and their worth now that they are gone. And fact remains, the whole thing was handled badly.

That cap space that you claim was better utilized went to Bolland and Clarkson, who have spent the majority of the season either injured or sucking. You can argue all you want that they are better players, but either way, they are contributing less this year than Grabovski and Macarthur have for their teams.


We not only didn't get assets for them, we gave up assets to replace them.

dude, if we're going to have an intelligent discussion here, you need to get your arguments right. you can't be picking pieces here and there to change them to your own agenda.

otherwise, it's a waste of time just like those fan 590 crazy fans that have no logic and say the leafs suck because they suck.

First, you said TEAM. We are a better team than ottawa and Washington because we have more points and currently sit in a playoff position. That is how to measure team success. Next would be getting to the stanley cup finals which ottawa and washington has yet to also do.

To base a team's success on one player is silly unless 1 player can play goalie, defense, and offense at the same time.

I'm also glad that "fans' opinion" aren't dictating management decisions for the maple leafs or else that would be a disaster.

Bolland and Clarkson brings in a different aspect of the club like leadership and experience from playoff games. Something the leafs do lack.

bolland + clarkson = 111 games of playoff experience
MacArthur + Grabo = 11 games of playoff experience.

that's 10x the number of playoff games.

once again, i'm not saying that grabo and macarthur individually SUCK, but the leafs got more playoff experience now and if you compare bolland/clarkson to grabo/macarthur, their historic production numbers aren't vastly different.

You can't be basing your arguments on "this years" production because at the time, no one knows how Grabo/MacArthur would produce. That's like saying I should have invested in apple stocks 10 years ago because I knew they would be the most successful company in the past decade. If everyone had 20/20 hindsight, we would all be billionaires and bought Tesla stocks 1 year ago.

 

[Joey Hoser]

Grabo vs. Bozak is still a thing?

This is a blatant example of the grass being greener. No level-headed person can possibly think we made the wrong move here.

 

[BonMorrison]

 

[Tak7]

Leafs are 9-1-1 in our last 11 games with Bozak as our #1C and Kadri coming alive as our #2C.

Both players are a major reason why.

Bozak and or Kadri(whichever one wants to choose) > Grabovksi

And both don't make 5.5 per year to accentuate the point even more.

I'm not Bozak's biggest fan, but this is 100% accurate.