GOAT goalscorer?

[daver]

Greatest playoff goalscorer is Maurice Richard. I don't think there should be any doubt about that. I think there is a strong case for Gretzky at number 2. When he was beaten in playoff goals, it was by Kurri, whom he was setting for 80％ of his scores. And Gretzky proved he could still get it done in playoffs in deep runs at age 32 and 36....

FWIW, in their Cup run days (just the Oilers for Wayne) both players played 103 games:

Bossy - 74 goals,

Wayne - 67 goals

It's worth noting the 2nd, 3rd, and 4th next scorers on their teams were:

Trottier - 49
Gilliess - 33
Bourne - 32

Kurri - 72
Messier - 62
Anderson - 57


I think Bossy has just as strong a case .

 

[The Panther]

Mm. Perhaps you are right and I over-stated it as Gretzky "destroying" Bossy, but I was thinking of them overall -- i.e., not only in playoffs, but regular season (and playoffs). I mean, Bossy looks close in overall League rankings (1st, 2nd, etc.), but what about in raw numbers (since we're talking about the same seasons)?

In the same 8 regular seasons that their careers overlap, Gretzky scores nearly 91 more goals than Bossy, an average of 11 or 12 more goals per season. In goals-per-game, Gretzky is also ahead 0.86 to 0.75.

It's fair to say this slightly disadvantages Bossy, since I'm overlooking his 1978-79 (the year before Gretzky was in the NHL). So, to make it more fair, we could look at Bossy's 10 seasons and Gretzky's first 10 (i.e., all of Edmonton plus first-year in L.A.). Gretzky scores 637 goals and Bossy 573.
Gretzky is at 0.82 goals per game, and Bossy at (his career mark of) 0.76.

I mean I love Bossy as much as anyone, but when one guy is primarily focused on playmaking yet scores a dozen goals a year more than another guy who isn't, how is the latter guy the better goal-scorer?

You make a great point, however, about Bossy's playoff goal-scoring (which was superb) being slightly ahead of Gretzky's pace over a certain period of time. But let's break it down:

Overall, Gretzky scored 122 playoff goals in 208 games (0.59 GPG).
Overall, Bossy scored 85 playoff goals in 129 games (0.66 GPG).
Not surprisingly, the raw per-game totals favor Bossy (though not by that much!).

But Bossy, as we all know, didn't appear in the playoffs at all after age 30. If we compare them up to that age, it goes:
Gretzky -- 93 goals in 150 games (0.62 GPG)
Bossy -- 85 goals in 129 games (0.66 GPG)
Wayne is now very close, but still a slight 'win' for Bossy.

But here are my two issues with calling Bossy the greatest playoff goal-scorer:

1) Most of his elite rep here rests on 1981, 1982, 1983. Obviously those were all amazing performances and full marks to him, but three years only to perform as the greatest ever...? If you remove those three consecutive springs, his playoff totals suddenly become 34 career goals in 73 career games, or 0.47 GPG. That's still pretty impressive for playoffs, but it's a long way down from those three peak years.

By contrast, with Gretzky, if we remove his three biggest playoffs in terms of goals-per-game (1983, 1985, 1986), he still has 85 playoff goals in 164 games, for 0.52 GPG. Also down, but not as severely. To put it another way, Gretzky scored 12+ playoff goals five times, Bossy three times. Or, we could also say Gretzky scored 15+ playoff goals over an 11-season span, Bossy a three-season span.

2) Bossy scored 85 playoff goals in 129 games (0.66 GPG), while Maurice Richard -- up to age 36 (still 6 years older than Bossy's eldest playoff) -- scored 81 in 121 games (0.67 GPG) when goals were a lot harder to come by.

 

[daver]

Mm. Perhaps you are right and I over-stated it as Gretzky "destroying" Bossy, but I was thinking of them overall -- i.e., not only in playoffs, but regular season (and playoffs). I mean, Bossy looks close in overall League rankings (1st, 2nd, etc.), but what about in raw numbers (since we're talking about the same seasons)?

In the same 8 regular seasons that their careers overlap, Gretzky scores nearly 91 more goals than Bossy, an average of 11 or 12 more goals per season. In goals-per-game, Gretzky is also ahead 0.86 to 0.75.

It's fair to say this slightly disadvantages Bossy, since I'm overlooking his 1978-79 (the year before Gretzky was in the NHL). So, to make it more fair, we could look at Bossy's 10 seasons and Gretzky's first 10 (i.e., all of Edmonton plus first-year in L.A.). Gretzky scores 637 goals and Bossy 573.
Gretzky is at 0.82 goals per game, and Bossy at (his career mark of) 0.76.

I mean I love Bossy as much as anyone, but when one guy is primarily focused on playmaking yet scores a dozen goals a year more than another guy who isn't, how is the latter guy the better goal-scorer?

You make a great point, however, about Bossy's playoff goal-scoring (which was superb) being slightly ahead of Gretzky's pace over a certain period of time. But let's break it down:

Overall, Gretzky scored 122 playoff goals in 208 games (0.59 GPG).
Overall, Bossy scored 85 playoff goals in 129 games (0.66 GPG).
Not surprisingly, the raw per-game totals favor Bossy (though not by that much!).

There is no denying Wayne's advantage but the fairest way to look at it, IMO, is how I laid it out.

The only argument for Bossy over Wayne or any other of the top tier goalscorers, which I don't agree with, is that we know Wayne regressed as a goalscorer while one could presume Bossy continues on the same path as Hull, Richard and OV and keeps putting up impressive #'s into their 30s.

IMO, Bossy was ahead of OV after OV's 10th, or even 11th season, which is a pretty good claim to fame.

Ultimately, what I think hurts Bossy besides his short career is the lack of a "out of this world" season or playoff run that is discussed as being among the Top 2 0r 3 all-time. If he had one those on his resume, he would be in the top 5 or 6 at least.

 

[Midnight Judges]

It's basically only of interest if you can't do a peer-comparison, which is always more meaningful.

I do not agree. Peer comparisons are far more volatile than league wide scoring averages, and therefore will give you less reliable results.

Peer comparisons are still good to do, and to factor in, but if I had to choose one metric as more indicative, scoring averages is it.

 

[Sentinel]

Ultimately, what I think hurts Bossy besides his short career is the lack of a "out of this world" season or playoff run that is discussed as being among the Top 2 0r 3 all-time. If he had one those on his resume, he would be in the top 5 or 6 at least.

What are you talking about? The playoff goal-scoring record is 19. Bossy had 17... THREE TIMES! If Ovechkin gets 17 (and he needs to get his ass in gear), it will be a historic run, the best in modern time!

Yes, Gretzky is above Bossy pretty much any way you slice it. But there is no excuse to put #22 anywhere below #5 greatest scorers of all time.

 

[Midnight Judges]

As one of countless examples of how "Adjusted stats" are wonky, consider Gretzky in 1982 and in 1983: In '82, he scored 212 points -- that's 60 more points than any other player had ever scored in history, and he won the scoring title by 65 points. Then in 1983, he scored 16 fewer points (partly due to less ice-time)... but won the scoring race by 72 points. Consequently, "adjusted stats" tells us that Gretzky had a better offensive season in 1983 than in 1982, which is absurd. Are 1982 and 1983 different scoring eras? Obviously not.

No, adjusted stats do NOT tell us that Gretzky was better in 1983 than he was in 1982.

Scoring per game was 4.01 in '82 and 3.86 in '83.

4.01 / 3.86 = 1.0388

1.0388 x 196 = 203.6 points

196 points in '83 is the equivalent of 204 points in '82.

204 points is less than 212, so no, Gretzky was not better according to adjusted stats (unless the math is being done improperly or you are reading it wrong). (not to mention Gretzky had 21 more goals in '82 - which can also be reasonably factored in).

In fact it's the exact opposite - the peer comparison that you seem to be advocating indicates he was better in '83.

EDIT: I am now seeing what you saw on hockey reference. I do not know what is wrong with their system but something is seriously broken. They do indeed adjust Gretzky's '83 to be better than '82. WTF. Something is indeed broken over there.

Player Comparison Finder | Hockey-Reference.com

 

[Midnight Judges]

What are you talking about? The playoff goal-scoring record is 18. Bossy had 17... THREE TIMES! If Ovechkin gets 17 (and he needs to get his ass in gear), it will be a historic run, the best in modern time!

Scoring was way higher back when Bossy was playing.

Scoring 17 in a playoff run during Bossy's day is more like scoring 13 goals in today's game.

League avg scoring in Bossy's time was approximately 3.8 goals per game. In Ovechkin's time it has been approximately 2.8.

2.8 / 3.8 = .7368

.7368 x 17 = 12.5

Ovechkin already has 12 goals this postseason. So actually if Ovechkin scores 1 more goal, he will have topped any playoff goal scoring performance from Mike Bossy.

 

[Midnight Judges]

Regular season results are also a team accolade by this fallacious reasoning.

Nope.

Every team plays 82 games. Even if a player is on a crappy team, their ability to score is somewhat diminished (although all-time greats pretty much always find a way) but they still have 82 games-worth of opportunities to score.

In the playoffs, a player plays as many games as his team gets to. Beyond that they have ZERO chance. It is largely out of their hands for a forward who plays roughly 1/3 of the game. That number of games could be zero, or it could be 4, or it could be 28.

Folks are talking about goals scored in the post season with no adjustment, no per game reference. "Bossy scored 17." Period end of story.

Bossy never scores 17 if he is not on (at least) a very good team. Therefore, if we don't add the context that playoff advancement is highly dependent on teammates, we are essentially giving Mike Bossy credit for building the dynasty that he actually lucked into.

That would be arbitrary.

 

[daver]

What are you talking about? The playoff goal-scoring record is 18. Bossy had 17... THREE TIMES! If Ovechkin gets 17 (and he needs to get his ass in gear), it will be a historic run, the best in modern time!

What are you talking about?

None of those 17 goal runs is Top 2 or 3 in the 20 year period where Leach had 19 and Sakic had 18 nor are they Top 2 or 3 in GPG.

And this doesn't consider great runs like Belliveau, Richard and Geoffrion's from the O6.

Again, Bossy doesn't have a peak season or peak playoff run that sets him apart from the top tier of goalscorers.

 

[Midnight Judges]

EDIT: I am now seeing what you saw on hockey reference. I do not know what is wrong with their system but something is seriously broken. They do indeed adjust Gretzky's '83 to be better than '82. WTF. Something is indeed broken over there.

Player Comparison Finder | Hockey-Reference.com

Regardless, my original point stands: Ovechkin 65 goals is still better than Gretzky's best if you adjust properly:

4.01 GPG avg in 1982.
2.78 GPG avg in 2008.

4.01 / 2.78 = 1.44244

1.44244 x 65 = 93.7

So Ovechkin's best season is the equivalent of scoring 94 goals in the season where Gretzky scored 92.

 

[Sentinel]

Folks are talking about goals scored in the post season with no adjustment, no per game reference. "Bossy scored 17." Period end of story.

Bossy never scores 17 if he is not on (at least) a very good team. Therefore, if we don't add the context that playoff advancement is highly dependent on teammates, we are essentially giving Mike Bossy credit for building the dynasty that he actually lucked into.

That would be arbitrary.

And that would be a mortal insult to Mike Bossy. "Lucked into"? He was as integral to that dynasty as it gets and has a Conn Smythe. Ken Morrow "lucked into" that dynasty (and was pretty good). Bossy made that dynasty.

 

[Midnight Judges]

And that would be a mortal insult to Mike Bossy. "Lucked into"? He was as integral to that dynasty as it gets and has a Conn Smythe. Ken Morrow "lucked into" that dynasty (and was pretty good). Bossy made that dynasty.

No doubt he was integral and he was great. But according to a majority of hf Islander fans (and many all-time rankings) Bossy was the third most important player on that dynasty.

 

[Sentinel]

What are you talking about?

None of those 17 goal runs is Top 2 or 3 in the 20 year period where Leach had 19 and Sakic had 18 nor are they Top 2 or 3 in GPG.

And this doesn't consider great runs like Belliveau, Richard and Geoffrion's from the 06.

Again, Bossy doesn't have a peak season or peak playoff run that sets him apart from the top tier of goalscorers.

I don't see how Bossy's heroics is worse than those by Believau or Geoffrion. Nobody else in history has 17 goals in three consecutive playoffs (and 20+ points in four consecutive playoffs). That sets him apart from all other players, including everybody you named.

You are a big fan of Crosby. Well, guess what: his two Conn Smythes are no match for Bossy's, who was otherworldly in 1982. They do share a funny feature of actually scoring more points on their non-CS playoffs than on their CS playoffs.

 

[Sentinel]

No doubt he was integral and he was great. But according to a majority of hf Islander fans (and many all-time rankings) Bossy was the third most important player on that dynasty.

Because there is more to life than offensive stats. When it comes to actually winning playoff games, Potvin was second to none. But when you are actually comparing Bossy's offensive stats to other people's, he comes out quite favorably.

 

[daver]

I don't see how Bossy's heroics is worse than those by Believau or Geoffrion. Nobody else in history has 17 goals in three consecutive playoffs (and 20+ points in four consecutive playoffs). That sets him apart from all other players, including everybody you named.

I didn't say anything about who has the best three year playoff run but it's not an unreasonable stat to put out there. Makes a compelling argument for him to be a better playoff goalscorer than Wayne.

Maybe he deserves to be somewhere in the #4 to #6 group.

 

[Thenameless]

No it doesn't.

NHL & WHA Single Season Leaders and Records for Adjusted Goals | Hockey-Reference.com

I've seen the adjustment, and that's why I mentioned it. I disagree that Ovechkin's 65 translates to a higher/harder/more difficult number to achieve than Gretzky's 92.

 

[DannyGallivan]

Bobby Hull was the greatest goal scorer of all time.

He led the league in goals a record seven times. This has only very recently been tied by Ovechkin, but Hull led by a wider margin in a more defensive era.

His career numbers were out by about 250 goals because he spent seven seasons in the WHA. That would give in career numbers very close to Gretzky's all-time record.

 

[daver]

Bobby Hull was the greatest goal scorer of all time.

He led the league in goals a record seven times. This has only very recently been tied by Ovechkin, but Hull led by a wider margin in a more defensive era.

His career numbers were out by about 250 goals because he spent seven seasons in the WHA. That would give in career numbers very close to Gretzky's all-time record.

Hull loses some ground in the playoffs, but not to OV.

And respective goal margins from a six team league vs. a thirty team league needs context. I think you have to view them as having regular season resumes that are pretty damn close.

 

[DannyGallivan]

Hull loses some ground in the playoffs, but not to OV.

And respective goal margins from a six team league vs. a thirty team league needs context. I think you have to view them as having regular season resumes that are pretty damn close.

There's always a risk in comparing eras (or else, it wouldn't be fun).
Hull, Ovechkin, Mario, Wayne, Bossy, the Rocket... they're all very close in goal scoring magnificence. You also have to include names such as Lafleur, Brett Hull, Howe and Beliveau in a second (but very close) tier.
And to be honest, I embarrassingly am not totally certain what "GOAT" means. Goalscorer of all time?

 

[Canadiens1958]

Nope.

Every team plays 82 games. Even if a player is on a crappy team, their ability to score is somewhat diminished (although all-time greats pretty much always find a way) but they still have 82 games-worth of opportunities to score.

In the playoffs, a player plays as many games as his team gets to. Beyond that they have ZERO chance. It is largely out of their hands for a forward who plays roughly 1/3 of the game. That number of games could be zero, or it could be 4, or it could be 28.

Folks are talking about goals scored in the post season with no adjustment, no per game reference. "Bossy scored 17." Period end of story.

Bossy never scores 17 if he is not on (at least) a very good team. Therefore, if we don't add the context that playoff advancement is highly dependent on teammates, we are essentially giving Mike Bossy credit for building the dynasty that he actually lucked into.

That would be arbitrary.

Missing the point.

82 RS games but a player like Ovi has the good fortune to play on a team where his coaches tolerate and teammates are willing to feed him on the LW creating advantageous scoring opportunities for him.

Other coaches and players do not tolerate such tactics. So modern scorers do not have the team benefit.

The feed Ovi tactic does not work nearly as well in the playoffs so Ovi's GP totals and goals are reduced.

Ovi is the only player up for discussion who has to be isolated so he can score. Gretzky,Bossy,Lemieux,all the others did not have coaches and teammates buying into the isolation tactic.

 

[Sentinel]

Missing the point.

82 RS games but a player like Ovi has the good fortune to play on a team where his coaches tolerate and teammates are willing to feed him on the LW creating advantageous scoring opportunities for him.

Other coaches and players do not tolerate such tactics. So modern scorers do not have the team benefit.

The feed Ovi tactic does not work nearly as well in the playoffs so Ovi's GP totals and goals are reduced.

Oviis the only player up for discussion who has to be isolated so he can score. Gretzky,Bossy,Lemieux,all the others did not have coaches and teammates buying into the isolation tactic.

Did you miss those seasons when Dale Hunter and Adam Oates tried for a more defensive approach? Ovy still lead the league in scoring.

If Ovechkin wins the Cup, he leapfrogs over Hull. If he wins another Rocket he leapfrogs over Hull.

 

[Canadiens1958]

Did you miss those seasons when Dale Hunter and Adam Oates tried for a more defensive approach? Ovy still lead the league in scoring.

If Ovechkin wins the Cup, he leapfrogs over Hull. If he wins another Rocket he leapfrogs over Hull.

Tried without success.

 

[Sentinel]

Tried without success.

Not the point. You argued that Bossy, Richard, et al had two-way responsibilities, and Ovy was allowed to run free. Which is a tinsy bit inaccurate.

 

[Midnight Judges]

Missing the point.

82 RS games but a player like Ovi has the good fortune to play on a team where his coaches tolerate and teammates are willing to feed him on the LW creating advantageous scoring opportunities for him.

Other coaches and players do not tolerate such tactics. So modern scorers do not have the team benefit.

The feed Ovi tactic does not work nearly as well in the playoffs so Ovi's GP totals and goals are reduced.

Oviis the only player up for discussion who has to be isolated so he can score. Gretzky,Bossy,Lemieux,all the others did not have coaches and teammates buying into the isolation tactic.

Coaches and teammates "tolerate" Ovechkin being by far the best and most consistent playoff performer they've got and top 5 in playoff PPG and #1 in playoff GPG of this generation (for anyone with a decent sample size). That's your take.

Wow.

 

[Canadiens1958]

Coaches and teammates "tolerate" Ovechkin being by far the best and most consistent playoff performer they've got and top 5 in playoff PPG and #1 in playoff GPG of this generation (for anyone with a decent sample size). That's your take.

Wow.

To date last in SC winning team contributions with 0.