Goal Scoring Woes

[Takeru]

Two issues that really need to be emphasized here:
- the Habs are actually bad at defense.
- in a hockey game, there is only one puck. If you are using it to play offense, the other team does not. The best defense is to hold the puck and deny it to your opponents.

Really, there's this misconception that more offense will necessarily lead to poorer defense. But what you're really advocating when you talk about an offensive style" is the notion that the Habs do not have the talent to play a high-event style, where the two teams trade shots/chances at a furious pace. That really isn't the point. Being high- or low- event is orthogonal to the question of whether you outplay your opponent.

Right now, though, the Habs are not playing an offensive style (they are not high-event in the opposing zone) but they are not playing a defensive style either (they are high-event in their zone). Right now what they are is a club that is poor at both offense and defense and is being carried by goaltending.

Don't mistake "we don't allow a lot of goals" with "we play an effective defensive style". It's not the only way to get there, as the Habs are clearly showing.

So in that sense, it makes sense for Montreal to try to be as low-event as possible, because they are not a good team. High-event styles favor the more powerful side as the larger samples reduce the impact of luck. Montreal can't outplay opponents, so they're down to hoping they get lucky and/or that Price saves them, so it makes sense for them to do what bad teams do, namely try to limit the number of events.

If Montreal could match or outplay teams, then a high-event style would become favorable to them even if their shooting was average, because they do have the advantage of excellent goaltending. But right now, the low-event style is good -- not because they lack finishing ability, per se, but because they're generally not playing very well.

Whether they have a roster that should result in such poor play is another matter. I think they ought to be significantly better than they are, and it makes sense to try and fix that problem before deciding whether a low- or high-event style makes the most sense for them.

Very sensible post there, goaltending and offensive contribution of a few players like Pacioretty, Subban and Galchenyuk are what carry this team. Our bottom 4 D really need upgrade, Emelin is probably the only one playing in an appropriate spot, as Beaulieu - Gonchar aren't ideal 2nd pairing D, and Gilbert is well... Gilbert. Offense needs an upgrade at 1 C and 1 RW, with that the rest should fall in place itself.

 

[MathMan]

Thanks for starting this interesting thread. Just curious, how does that compare to other teams? Perhaps that is a normal breakdown of the bottom 75% of the scorers on any given team at any given time?

Well, it would help to be consistent and count how much secondary scoring they've had in the last 20-games, really, instead of cherry-picking sequences for dramatic effect. For example: out of the 306 games, 153 belong to defensemen (exactly half, by a fun coincidence), but they're only one-third of the players. I don't think people can reasonably expect bottom-four D-men who play second-unit PP to score at the same pace as forwards.

 

[MathMan]

Very sensible post there, goaltending and offensive contribution of a few players like Pacioretty, Subban and Galchenyuk are what carry this team. Our bottom 4 D really need upgrade, Emelin is probably the only one playing in an appropriate spot, as Beaulieu - Gonchar aren't ideal 2nd pairing D, and Gilbert is well... Gilbert. Offense needs an upgrade at 1 C and 1 RW, with that the rest should fall in place itself.

I think roster upgrades can help, but I don't think they are the root of the problem by any stretch. I think you can give this roster two significant upgrades and still end up with a better-but-still-below-average club.

 

[montreal]

I'm not too concerned with the lack of offense from Beaulieu. I'm pretty sure they told him not to worry about the offense, play solid defensively and the offense will come eventually. He's been looking great of late being what he's supposed to be, a defenseman. Eventually you'll want some offense out of a guy like that but for now I think they just want him focusing only on D. He's got too much natural skill for him not to provide any offense. It'll come.

Can't say I agree, it's good that he's working on his defensive game as it needed a lot of work to begin with but if you are going to be a top 4 and not produce it's a problem imo. I also don't think he's been looking great of late, he's making more mistakes (I believe it was the Yotes game last week where he really struggled). What do you think he's doing great at? Just curious. I'm sure at some point the offense will come, but until it does it's just one more player that doesn't score on this team.

Thanks for starting this interesting thread. Just curious, how does that compare to other teams? Perhaps that is a normal breakdown of the bottom 75% of the scorers on any given team at any given time? I noticed each player has a different game duration as if these numbers are cherry picked out of context?

We have the best record over the past 10 games in the NHL. I guess we should score more goals no doubt, but to say the bottom 75% are the problem. Who really knows? Scoring is down across the league as well. How many players will even crack 90 points? 1 or 2?

Since the Habs are winning it's not a big deal but come playoff time it could be a huge problem if not addressed. I don't follow the rest of the league, only care about the Habs and the Habs winning. If 12 out of 18 skaters are struggling to score on a given night that's going to catch up to us at some point.

I think roster upgrades can help, but I don't think they are the root of the problem by any stretch. I think you can give this roster two significant upgrades and still end up with a better-but-still-below-average club.

On the other hand, 2 significant upgrades and the Habs could end up with a cup imo.

 

[heretik27]

There's a video of Carey Price skating around shooting pucks at a practice on nhl's website. Maybe he intends to play both goaltender and forward to help his team?

 

[MathMan]

On the other hand, 2 significant upgrades and the Habs could end up with a cup imo.

One's evaluation on the ability to win a Cup depends almost entirely on one's answer to the question, "what are the odds that Price can steal four series in a row?"

Two significant upgrades will pull the Habs up, but there's a ways to go from where they are to the point where they can be considered serious contenders. And I don't think they can get there with (remotely realistic) roster upgrades, TBH. The problem is elsewhere.

 

[montreal]

One's evaluation on the ability to win a Cup depends almost entirely on one's answer to the question, "what are the odds that Price can steal four series in a row?"

Two significant upgrades will pull the Habs up, but there's a ways to go from where they are to the point where they can be considered serious contenders. And I don't think they can get there with (remotely realistic) roster upgrades, TBH. The problem is elsewhere.

well the first question would be how one defines significant upgrades. It's too general of a term, so depending on who those 2 upgrades were, would depend on how much the Habs would need Price to stand on his head. I'm one of those types that believes you build from the net out and that a hot goalie can take you all the way. But if the Habs don't get a big boost to the offense, then I'm very concerned about how the playoffs will go.

 

[bsl]

Gallagher- 1 goal last 16 games
Eller- 2 goals last 23 games
Sekac- 1 goal last 22 games
Prust- 1 goal last 19 games
Malhotra- 0 goals in 46 games
Thomas- 0 goals in 11 games
Bournival- 0 goals last 12 games
DLR- 0 goals in 4 games
Beaulieu- 0 goals in 38 games
Gonchar- 0 goals last 24 games
Gilbert- 1 goal last 40 games
Emelin- 2 goals last 51 games


12 out of 18 skaters have scored 8 goals in a combined total of 306 games.

No one on the list surprises me. Either too old, too young, or no hands. The only real potential scorers on the list are Thomas (20 ish if he can make the NHL ), Ghallagher (20 ish) and Beaulieu (8 ish). That's not very scary.

Terrible team offensively. Without Price, Habs would be in 8th place and falling. It's a laugh when people think otherwise.

30 + Goal scorers are the NHL's rarest commodity. Almost impossible to get a proven one through trade, and by the time they are UFA, their high scoring days are over. Look at the average ages of a player's highest goal scoring years. It's like 23-28.

Habs suck at drafting and developing NHL goal scorers. Max being the only exception the last 10 years. Losing a few 2nd and one first round pick a few years ago is also coming home to roost.

Habs desperately need some luck in the draft with a 30 + goal scorer. They are way overdue.

But there is also enough evidence by now to say that I also think Timmins has been pretty weak with forwards in round 1, and at identifying NHL 30 + goal scoring potential in any round. To me, it's early, but players like Lehkonen and Collberg epitomize Timmins busts for example. Just useless by the look of it. Lehkonen is a ghost this year apparently, the year after his draft. That's not good.

I don't expect Hudon to be more than a 15-20 goal scorer in NHL, if he makes it, so he is not what I am talking about when I talk about goal scoring. Nor is Gallagher.

Scherbak, is key to Timmin's future with Habs I think, and he should be. This kid has to pan out, and big time. He needs to be a goal scorer. A finisher. If he flops, ouch.

 

[bsl]

habs need to cross the blue line in the middle and get into the slot

instead of circling the boards and going behind the net

(and waiting for power plays...)

they are getting crushed along the boards and wasting good posessions.

they need some grit to have their way in the Opponent zone

do it for Carey Price. we need sustainable strategies for a playoff run.

the coaching staff cannot take credit for the W column in the standings.

Can't perform surgery with a butter knife. Habs don't have the players.

 

[JayKing]

Solution: dress the veteran that has 0 goals and no offensive ability.

 

[bsl]

Beaulieu- 0 goals in 38 games

Hasn't scored an NHL goal yet and not a big scorer in the AHL or juniors so not sure if it's a slump or reality here.

For god's sake do some research. Why would you just go ahead and write something that is clearly wrong on a discussion site? it takes 5 minutes to look it up.

The guy was a good scorer in junior and also in AHL at one point. I also saw highlights of him in junior where he scored fantastic goals. Even watching his pinching and close chances this year you can tell he has 8-10 goal potential.

 

[bsl]

Is it the system, is it the coach ? Perhaps. Is it only our superstar goalie ? Nope.

Why Habs are winning? Yup.

 

[Rosso Scuderia]

And we are just in the regular season, it's gonna be even worse in the playoffs.

The last two time we went in the ECF, we were kind of lucky because we had some good elements.

First time was Cammalleri+Halak. I remember back then, 4 out of our top 6, which included Plekanec, AK, Gomez and Pouliot (IIRC) went scoreless for 13-14 straight games (series against the Pens and Flyers).

Last playoffs was the same thing. We were lucky that our third line generate a good part of the offense and Briere scoring a couple of important goals. Of course, Price had his words aswell.

There's a lot of question mark for the upcoming playoffs. Will Pacioretty start to be a dominant player or he becomes completely irrelevant as well? Will DD finally be able to score a goal at 5 on 5? Who play RW on the first line? Will Plekanec generate any offense because of his role? How will Galchenyuk, Gallagher, Sekac play? Will Eller be as clutch as last year?

 

[JAVO16]

For god's sake do some research. Why would you just go ahead and write something that is clearly wrong on a discussion site? it takes 5 minutes to look it up.

The guy was a good scorer in junior and also in AHL at one point. I also saw highlights of him in junior where he scored fantastic goals. Even watching his pinching and close chances this year you can tell he has 8-10 goal potential.

No with that muffin shot he's got. He gives Gorges a run for his money in the "worst shot from the point" competition at this point.

And I'm not trying to be extra harsh on the kid here. He's got nice passing skills, poise and and skating ability, but he'll need to work on that shot to reach that lofty potential you speak of.

 

[Markov4Captain]

I don't know if I imagined this or not but I think our GF at the Bell Center is something around 3.1 while its about 2.5 on the road. This is why home ice is so important. Our team scores more with favourable match ups.

 

[montreal]

No one on the list surprises me. Either too old, too young, or no hands. The only real potential scorers on the list are Thomas (20 ish if he can make the NHL ), Ghallagher (20 ish) and Beaulieu (8 ish). That's not very scary.

Terrible team offensively. Without Price, Habs would be in 8th place and falling. It's a laugh when people think otherwise.

30 + Goal scorers are the NHL's rarest commodity. Almost impossible to get a proven one through trade, and by the time they are UFA, their high scoring days are over. Look at the average ages of a player's highest goal scoring years. It's like 23-28.

Habs suck at drafting and developing NHL goal scorers. Max being the only exception the last 10 years. Losing a few 2nd and one first round pick a few years ago is also coming home to roost.

Habs desperately need some luck in the draft with a 30 + goal scorer. They are way overdue.

But there is also enough evidence by now to say that I also think Timmins has been pretty weak with forwards in round 1, and at identifying NHL 30 + goal scoring potential in any round. To me, it's early, but players like Lehkonen and Collberg epitomize Timmins busts for example. Just useless by the look of it. Lehkonen is a ghost this year apparently, the year after his draft. That's not good.

I don't expect Hudon to be more than a 15-20 goal scorer in NHL, if he makes it, so he is not what I am talking about when I talk about goal scoring. Nor is Gallagher.

Scherbak, is key to Timmin's future with Habs I think, and he should be. This kid has to pan out, and big time. He needs to be a goal scorer. A finisher. If he flops, ouch.

Agreed about the offensive struggles as they lack talent among their skaters after Pac/Galchenyuk/Pleks/Subban/Markov.

Timmins has struggled getting us goal scorers outside of Pac. Galchenyuk should be there in time. Gallagher can put the puck in the net. Our development has been a big issue imo. Having a new coach in Hamilton every year and then imo getting the wrong coach has not helped matters. The Kostitsyn brothers, Grabovski, Leblanc, Latendresse, it's too bad it didn't work out as they were interesting picks but makes you wonder how it would have gone if things were done differently in regards to their development.

It will be interesting to see what Hudon can do in the NHL, I'm a big fan as I've been very impressed but until he reaches the NHL we can only speculate. Lehkonen, Collberg, Reway, DD, Thomas, Trotter, Hudon, MacMillan, Kristo, Archambault, Andrighetto, Audette, Locke, Grabo. The Habs haven't been shy about drafting, signing, or trading for undersized skilled players. I can see it to a point since the NHL is clearly changing so that smaller players do have a place in today/tomorrows NHL. But perhaps they could have gone for a few less. We'll have to see how it pans out.

I'm a big Scherbak fan since I have him as hands down our top prospect, so really looking forward to seeing what he can do in the NHL. If he ends up being a quality top 6 winger, having him and Galchenyuk will be a treat to watch in the future.

Solution: dress the veteran that has 0 goals and no offensive ability.

Another solution: Trade for a skilled forward to help out. Management had no problem getting Gonchar and Allen on the cheap, why not pony up and get us some help since we clearly need more offense.

 

[JayKing]

I don't know if I imagined this or not but I think our GF at the Bell Center is something around 3.1 while its about 2.5 on the road. This is why home ice is so important. Our team scores more with favourable match ups.

I don't think it's so much the favorable matchups than it is our PP being better at home (21.8%) than on the road(10.7%).

 

[Rapala]

And we are just in the regular season, it's gonna be even worse in the playoffs.

The last two time we went in the ECF, we were kind of lucky because we had some good elements.

First time was Cammalleri+Halak. I remember back then, 4 out of our top 6, which included Plekanec, AK, Gomez and Pouliot (IIRC) went scoreless for 13-14 straight games (series against the Pens and Flyers).

Last playoffs was the same thing. We were lucky that our third line generate a good part of the offense and Briere scoring a couple of important goals. Of course, Price had his words aswell.

There's a lot of question mark for the upcoming playoffs. Will Pacioretty start to be a dominant player or he becomes completely irrelevant as well? Will DD finally be able to score a goal at 5 on 5? Who play RW on the first line? Will Plekanec generate any offense because of his role? How will Galchenyuk, Gallagher, Sekac play? Will Eller be as clutch as last year?

There is certainly a luck factor involved in playoff hockey but good clubs seem to make their own luck.
Can you win a cup with one goalie two D and four F?
Because that is essentially what we have...

A series or two at best.
That is also contingent on MP TP and AG firing on all cylinders...

We need help bad up front two players if possible.
We also need a hard nosed defender.

Then we only have to keep players from accidentally running Price.