Glaring need for an Elite D prospect

[Daisy Jane]

Why is Rielly on the second pairing? He's a cornerstone already.

stagger out the amazingness rather than having them together

 

[PuckMagi]

It will be interesting to see what we have with Marincin and Harrington. Seems like both are NHL ready this year (Marincin more so than Harrington).

If we can trade JVR straight up for a really good young defender... we should look at doing that.

Obviously the Kessel to Nashville trade didn't happen... but I wonder if Nashville would do JVR + Polak + Percy for Seth Jones + Cap dump

 

[sIDEsHOW93]

I highly value what Darryl Belfry has to say about comparing young players to NHLer's:

belfryhockey ‏@belfryhockey Jun 28
I particularly love when the comparison is to a first ballot HOFer. Each year the absurdity of the logic further distances the humour.

belfryhockey ‏@belfryhockey Jun 28
The fact this is still accepted is mind-numbing. This comparative rhetoric perpetuates "boxed thinking" & insults our collective hockey IQ

belfryhockey ‏@belfryhockey Jun 28
The common practice of using comparative rhetoric of current &/or past NHLers as an illustrative projection 4 prospects defines dumbing down

Back to me - Let's just remember - a player is himself and not someone else - not Crosby not Giroux - Mitch Marner will be the next Mitch Marner.

This^^ Although hearing him compared to my favourite player of all time (Gilmour) does make me a tad giddy haha

 

[Bullseye]

It will be interesting to see what we have with Marincin and Harrington. Seems like both are NHL ready this year (Marincin more so than Harrington).

If we can trade JVR straight up for a really good young defender... we should look at doing that.

Obviously the Kessel to Nashville trade didn't happen... but I wonder if Nashville would do JVR + Polak + Percy for Seth Jones + Cap dump

I would ask about Ryan Ellis if Jones isn't available - he's a quarterback guy and would be great under Babcock but I wouldn't give up JVR unless we get a 1st & 3rd as well.

 

[BreakingGood]

Gardiner is 25 and a top pairing defenseman.

Never draft for position. Add as much talent as possible, you can trade for position later. Besides, it's also easier to find good d-men on the UFA market. Anton Stralman, for example.

 

[BlueBaron]

Gardiner is 25 and a top pairing defenseman.

Never draft for position. Add as much talent as possible, you can trade for position later. Besides, it's also easier to find good d-men on the UFA market. Anton Stralman, for example.

I love your optimism but I don't think Gardiner is there just yet and may never be. He is a dark horse IMO so I won't count him out but he needs to put it all together soon. I doubt he will ever be an elite penalty killer or defensive player but could a top tier offensive guy.

 

[91Kadri91*]

I love your optimism but I don't think Gardiner is there just yet and may never be. He is a dark horse IMO so I won't count him out but he needs to put it all together soon. I doubt he will ever be an elite penalty killer or defensive player but could a top tier offensive guy.

He'll never be an elite penalty killer, but he's already a great defensive player at even-strength. His offensive game, meanwhile, is not top-tier, and likely never will be. I'm hopeful (due to his low PDO and high shot-generation rates) that his offensive game will become noteworthy, but it's well below 'top-tier' at the moment.

 

[BreakingGood]

I love your optimism but I don't think Gardiner is there just yet and may never be. He is a dark horse IMO so I won't count him out but he needs to put it all together soon. I doubt he will ever be an elite penalty killer or defensive player but could a top tier offensive guy.

Gardiner is an elite NHL possession player, by just about any metric, already.

 

[Stephen]

stagger out the amazingness rather than having them together

Captain Morgan could be an All-Star in '16 or '17. I think he's on the first pairing until proven otherwise...

 

[Vexed]

Leafs still have a need for pretty much an elite everything

 

[BlueBaron]

Gardiner is an elite NHL possession player, by just about any metric, already.

Some people have begun to think possession stats are everything. I don't think when people say "elite defenseman" they mean outstanding in one aspect. Does a world class skater who is marginal defensively qualify as elite ? I doubt it.

 

[91Kadri91*]

Some people have begun to think possession stats are everything. I don't think when people say "elite defenseman" they mean outstanding in one aspect. Does a world class skater who is marginal defensively qualify as elite ? I doubt it.

Except he's not marginal defensively.

You can dispute possession stats- not well, mind you, but nonetheless- but I don't see how you can claim that the defenseman with the 15th best even-strength (ES) GA60RelTM among qualified (1000+ minutes played) defensemen (league-wide) over the last three seasons (2012-2015), while playing top-pairing ES minutes, is 'marginal defensively'. To argue that is to blatantly disregard facts. His shot suppression metrics are even more impressive than that, but even if you disregard them, I don't see how you can sensibly ignore a defenseman's ability to prevent goals (which is the purpose of a defensive defenseman) when discussing said defenseman's defensive abilities.

 

[AINEC*]

The rebuild has failed after four days!!

 

[Leaf Army]

We need to target top centres before worrying about more defence prospects.

Guys like Keith, Weber, Subban, Chara and Lidstrom were all picked in the second and third rounds. Even a guy like Karlsson was a mid first found pick.

Finding a top centre is far more difficult. And more important too.

 

[PJJ]

You can convert a forward to a D man, but you can't do the opposite

 

[BlueBaron]

Except he's not marginal defensively.

You can dispute possession stats- not well, mind you, but nonetheless- but I don't see how you can claim that the defenseman with the 15th best even-strength (ES) GA60RelTM among qualified (1000+ minutes played) defensemen (league-wide) over the last three seasons (2012-2015), while playing top-pairing ES minutes, is 'marginal defensively'. To argue that is to blatantly disregard facts. His shot suppression metrics are even more impressive than that, but even if you disregard them, I don't see how you can sensibly ignore a defenseman's ability to prevent goals (which is the purpose of a defensive defenseman) when discussing said defenseman's defensive abilities.

Wasn't actually calling Gardiner marginal, was just giving an example. I'm not going to go through the stats to debate you but try floating the idea on the main boards he's an elite defenseman and see how that go's.

Having watched almost every game he has played as a Leaf I know he is not elite defensively. He is a great puck carrier but he won't be confused with Doughty or Kieth any time soon.

I think explaining why he is on the second pairing for both special teams might create some questions considering how weak we are defensively(one of the worst teams in league actually).Heck why isn't he our number 1 ? Also makes you wonder why we aren't hearing about constant offers from teams trying to get him ? Elite defensive D are always in high demand, surely we could have got more for him than Kessel at the draft, but we did not, because not many see him as that special.

 

[91Kadri91*]

Wasn't actually calling Gardiner marginal, was just giving an example. I'm not going to go through the stats to debate you but try floating the idea on the main boards he's an elite defenseman and see how that go's.

Having watched almost every game he has played as a Leaf I know he is not elite defensively. He is a great puck carrier but he won't be confused with Doughty or Kieth any time soon.

I think explaining why he is on the second pairing for both special teams might create some questions considering how weak we are defensively(one of the worst teams in league actually).Heck why isn't he our number 1 ? Also makes you wonder why we aren't hearing about constant offers from teams trying to get him ? Elite defensive D are always in high demand, surely we could have got more for him than Kessel at the draft, but we did not, because not many see him as that special.

So your rebuttal is essentially: 'no thank-you, facts, I'll take the opinions of HfBoard posters'? Or is it that you've watched every one of his games since he began his career (I've done the same)? You then proceed to claim that we didn't get a good return on Gardiner because he isn't valued, instead of recognizing the very real possibility that the Leafs don't want to trade him (especially likely when you consider the fact that the current management group is very high on analytics).

Yeah... okay then.

 

[Daisy Jane]

Captain Morgan could be an All-Star in '16 or '17. I think he's on the first pairing until proven otherwise...

actually, because the league has 1 representative per team now, yeah, Morgan could very well be an all star this year.

 

[Bullseye]

You can convert a forward to a D man, but you can't do the opposite

Wendell Clark says hi.

Actually, Dustin Bfuglien also says hi...

 

[Rufio65*]

You can convert a forward to a D man, but you can't do the opposite

Doesn't matter Gardiner is a lost cause. Trying him at forward is admitting failure and diminishes whatever little trade value he has. Leafs should just take whatever they can get for him just to unload the contract. His contract is as bad as Clarksons.

Let's be serious.. he was a healthy scratch at the WC for an NCAA defenseman on a paper thin depth chart.Todd Richards didn't have an agenda.. he was just trying to win, and he sure did overachieve winning a bronze medal. It won't take Babcock long to send this clown to the press box.

 

[BlueBaron]

So your rebuttal is essentially: 'no thank-you, facts, I'll take the opinions of HfBoard posters'? Or is it that you've watched every one of his games since he began his career (I've done the same)? You then proceed to claim that we didn't get a good return on Gardiner because he isn't valued, instead of recognizing the very real possibility that the Leafs don't want to trade him (especially likely when you consider the fact that the current management group is very high on analytics).

Yeah... okay then.

You are looking at one set of facts and ignoring the others yet are indignant that I do not see our number 3/4 defenseman as elite. Clearly my position is unreasonable and yours is infallible. Your "facts" are presented without context so how can I take them seriously ? Who are his match ups ? What are the zone starts etc etc ? Considering he is second pairing PK that suggests he is not facing the toughest competition very much.

I notice you were unable to address any of the valid points I brought forward and clung to stats with no context. That you place your opinion so high above your peers says it all to me. You are the only one calling a number 3/4 D on one of the worst defensive team in the league "elite". That you cannot see the weakness of that position is cause for concern.

Regarding trade offers, which is what I said we would be getting, not trading him (I'll assume you are better at reading stats ) . Considering we are told everyone but Rielly is available and no one is interested in Gardiner from what we hear does imply his value is not where you place it. That rebuttal is clearly desperate.

Don't you find it odd no one else seems to have expressed your opinion he is elite when our fan base is famous for overhyping our players ? Ah but you have already made it clear that your opinion has more value than the HF majority so I suppose that would hardly matter.

NHL.com rates the top 17 two way defensemen in the league: http://www.nhl.com/ice/news.htm?id=729524

You will note Gardiners absence. Interestingly enough they also used advanced stats to calculate them so this suggests you need to work on your context to make better use of your statistics though you would know your error if you actually watched the guy play.

 

[HellasLEAF]

you know I have to say.

although I am ecstatic about taking Marner, when you look through our prospect system right now, we do have a number of very skilled/smart offensive players with high ceiling.

it wouldn't have hurt us at all having Noah Hanifin in the system.

 

[BlueBaron]

actually, because the league has 1 representative per team now, yeah, Morgan could very well be an all star this year.

Ha ha, very good point ! I have to think our rep will be a D or G because our forwards are going to hurt. Rielly gets my all-star vote unless Dion reinvents himself under Babs.

 

[Rufio65*]

You are looking at one set of facts and ignoring the others yet are indignant that I do not see our number 3/4 defenseman as elite. Clearly my position is unreasonable and yours is infallible. Your "facts" are presented without context so how can I take them seriously ? Who are his match ups ? What are the zone starts etc etc ? Considering he is second pairing PK that suggests he is not facing the toughest competition very much.

I notice you were unable to address any of the valid points I brought forward and clung to stats with no context. That you place your opinion so high above your peers says it all to me. You are the only one calling a number 3/4 D on one of the worst defensive team in the league "elite". That you cannot see the weakness of that position is cause for concern.

Regarding trade offers, which is what I said we would be getting, not trading him (I'll assume you are better at reading stats ) . Considering we are told everyone but Rielly is available and no one is interested in Gardiner from what we hear does imply his value is not where you place it. That rebuttal is clearly desperate.

Don't you find it odd no one else seems to have expressed your opinion he is elite when our fan base is famous for overhyping our players ? Ah but you have already made it clear that your opinion has more value than the HF majority so I suppose that would hardly matter.

NHL.com rates the top 17 two way defensemen in the league: http://www.nhl.com/ice/news.htm?id=729524

You will note Gardiners absence. Interestingly enough they also used advanced stats to calculate them so this suggests you need to work on your context to make better use of your statistics though you would know your error if you actually watched the guy play.

This is a solid post. Interested to see Kadri's response. Nicely done.

 

[BlueBaron]

This is a solid post. Interested to see Kadri's response. Nicely done.

LOL, cheers brother.