Confirmed with Link: Giordano (50% retention) and Blackwell to Leafs (2 x 2nd RD (2022, 2023)+ 1 x 3rd RD (2024))

AuraSphere

Registered User
Jun 27, 2012
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Chiarot is not a top-pairing D-man. Not even close.
Fair - but he's known to be really great in the playoffs and always steps up like one - last year wasn't the first year he did it. I think that's what really boosted his value up - the deep playoff experience and the ability to hard shut down offense.

Thanks for the input
 

The Marquis

Moderator
Aug 24, 2020
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Washougal, WA
If that's the case - then why is Seattle fan base upset at the return - he is a tier below Chiarot/Lindholm - no?

Think of it this way. He wore the 'C' and was on our top pair. However, that said, I would have been happy with this deal if Blackwell wasn't involved. But it could have gone that TML give the Kraken those picks for Gio and some other team gives a 4th for Blackwell. That said, Blackwell is probably why the 3rd is a 3rd, so part of my thinks it went like this...

Gio could have gone alone and returned 2 2nd round picks and maybe a 7th for retention (MAYBE). Blackwell goes for a 4th-6th Round pick... Yeah we have 1 more pick, but not that 3rd, so honestly, I think we probably ended up getting a better overall return because Blackwell went in the deal.
 

Zonk

Registered User
Jul 2, 2012
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There have been quite a few trades of defensemen in the last few days. There has been some discussion about which players are better, but very little on which players provide the most value for their cap hit.
Giordano signed his contract when he was a consistent Norris Trophy candidate. He is now in the last year of a six-year deal. It is to be expected that he is no longer playing at the level of a $6.75 AAV player, but he is still a top four defenseman.
I believe that all of the trades involved 50% retention. IMO the Chiarot trade was an outlier and Florida overpaid. But looking at some of the other trades, would you rather have Manson at $2.05 million or Gio at $3.375 million? I do not watch enough Western Conference games to know the answer, but I think that the value per AAV has to be taken into account when assessing the trades.
 

GrungeHockey

Registered User
Sep 14, 2021
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My point would be that Francis had Toronto over a barrel but didn't hold fast. Florida, Tampa, Boston, have all made moves so Toronto HAD to make a move to even appear like they were trying to stay with those opponents. Francis blinked first, I assume afraid he'd lose in the 11th hour but imo he blew it.
being an old Buffalo fan I'm happy to blame it on Botterill though just because :)
 

inthe6ix

Registered User
Oct 3, 2008
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There have been quite a few trades of defensemen in the last few days. There has been some discussion about which players are better, but very little on which players provide the most value for their cap hit.
Giordano signed his contract when he was a consistent Norris Trophy candidate. He is now in the last year of a six-year deal. It is to be expected that he is no longer playing at the level of a $6.75 AAV player, but he is still a top four defenseman.
I believe that all of the trades involved 50% retention. IMO the Chiarot trade was an outlier and Florida overpaid. But looking at some of the other trades, would you rather have Manson at $2.05 million or Gio at $3.375 million? I do not watch enough Western Conference games to know the answer, but I think that the value per AAV has to be taken into account when assessing the trades.

It was speculated that Manson did not want to come to us, so while I would prefer Manson myself, Dubas may not have had any say in which one to take. Gio for two 2nd's seems fair, and we don't need him to be a top-pairing D man, when he will play with TJ on the 2nd pair. We may decide to re-up him in the offseason, who knows, but anyone crapping on Francis needs to think about the optics of letting Gio go to his choice of destination - that should draw future FAs about the integrity of your management.

Anyways, really happy with picking up Blackwell for a 3rd - he really lit us up earlier this month in our 6-4W, and I liked what I saw with his forecheck and work ethic.. guy has a motor, hits and has some skill, not bad for a depth piece.

Good luck going forward.. with TB/FLA likely in the 1st round, we definitely will need some.
 

kihei

McEnroe: The older I get, the better I used to be.
Jun 14, 2006
42,737
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Toronto
So two 2nds for Gio at 50%, and then likely a 3rd for Blackwell.

In a Vacuum, that is likely fair value. I was hoping for more based on the crazy recent transactions, but two weeks ago I was honsetly thinking that I would be happy with two 2nds for Gio.

Fact is, he just has not been all that great. We have been building him up on the trade board, but let's all be honest, he's been fairly pedestrian all season.

If I was a Toronto fan, I likely would not want to give up two 2nds for him.

A 3rd for Blackwell is disappointing in that I feel like Blackwell has more value to this club than that, but I don't see any team trading a 2nd for a guy that an expansion team is playing less than twelve and a half minutes a night,

All in all, fair deals, but I am not thrilled.
Sums up my feelings perfectly. I'll probably like the picks more tomorrow, but I'm a bit underwhelmed today.
 

Irie

Registered User
Nov 14, 2010
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Pacific Northwest
Think of it this way. He wore the 'C' and was on our top pair. However, that said, I would have been happy with this deal if Blackwell wasn't involved. But it could have gone that TML give the Kraken those picks for Gio and some other team gives a 4th for Blackwell. That said, Blackwell is probably why the 3rd is a 3rd, so part of my thinks it went like this...

Gio could have gone alone and returned 2 2nd round picks and maybe a 7th for retention (MAYBE). Blackwell goes for a 4th-6th Round pick... Yeah we have 1 more pick, but not that 3rd, so honestly, I think we probably ended up getting a better overall return because Blackwell went in the deal.
This is my take on it too.

There is likely no way Blackwell returns a 2nd alone. A 3rd is probably fair value for him, which means Gio retained returned two 2nds.

I know that we all wanted more given some recent trades, but in no world is Gio's fair value worth more than a pair of 2nds with the way he played this season.

So I am not too disappointed.
 

The Marquis

Moderator
Aug 24, 2020
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Washougal, WA
Sums up my feelings perfectly. I'll probably like the picks more tomorrow, but I'm a bit underwhelmed today.
I’m starting to be a little less disappointed. Florida overpaid for everything. That’s why they got the guys they wanted. Boston for Lindholm in a trade and sign, which even if the same happens for Gio, he’ll still be 39 next season.
 

Fistfullofbeer

Moderator
May 9, 2011
30,370
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Whidbey Island, WA
This is my take on it too.

There is likely no way Blackwell returns a 2nd alone. A 3rd is probably fair value for him, which means Gio retained returned two 2nds.

I know that we all wanted more given some recent trades, but in no world is Gio's fair value worth more than a pair of 2nds with the way he played this season.

So I am not too disappointed.
Yeah. I think the Chiarot trade screwed up our expectations. Before that trade we were saying 2 x 2nds or 2 + B prospect would be acceptable. Which is pretty much what it ended up being. 3rd for Blackwell is kind of an overpay as well.
 

Irie

Registered User
Nov 14, 2010
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The name I'm focused on is Oliver Kylington.

And I bet we will see leaks saying that Francis could have gotten more elsewhere but wanted to "do right by Gio" and send him to Toronto

Hindsight is 20/20

Kylington is now the obvious choice, but once the expansion list was released last year, I did not see a single respected organization choose Kylington in their mock drafts.

Given what Calgary exposed, if every poster on this board were told they could draft Giordano, play him for the year and then move him for two 2nd round picks at the TDL, everyone would have been onboard.

Pretending like this was not a good outcome based on expansion draft expectations is just ridiculous.
 
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Irie

Registered User
Nov 14, 2010
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Yeah. I think the Chiarot trade screwed up our expectations. Before that trade we were saying 2 x 2nds or 2 + B prospect would be acceptable. Which is pretty much what it ended up being. 3rd for Blackwell is kind of an overpay as well.
Agreed, and I think we should probably be fine with the trade, although I think we are all a bit disappointed Blackwell is gone, regardless of fair value.

Like I said before, given how Gio played this year, two 2nds is a bit of an overpay in my mind. I know Gio had the second most minutes of D, but if I were forced to pick just four D for a one game playoff,, I would pick Oleksiak, Dunn, Larsson and Soucy.

I honestly do not think Giordano has been in any way one of the top four performing D on this team all season.
 

dylanmacarthur

RonFrancis dēlenda est
Nov 8, 2013
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It all goes back to my thesis that GMRF couldn't decide whether to win right away or build for the future, so split the baby.

I think he genuinely thought the team would be competitive (making Gio the pick). Then he created a terrible team instead by accident so is now embracing tanking.

This bodes poorly for when he has the reigns and is once again trying to field a competitive team. He clearly sucks at it.

All those 2nd rounders will be safe picks. And then we will have this same team in 4 years.
 

Fistfullofbeer

Moderator
May 9, 2011
30,370
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Whidbey Island, WA
It all goes back to my thesis that GMRF couldn't decide whether to win right away or build for the future, so split the baby.

I think he genuinely thought the team would be competitive (making Gio the pick). Then he created a terrible team instead by accident so is now embracing tanking.

This bodes poorly for when he has the reigns and is once again trying to field a competitive team. He clearly sucks at it.

All those 2nd rounders will be safe picks. And then we will have this same team in 4 years.
Oh you mean like Ryan Winterton was a safe pick because he was injured for majority of his draft year. Or Ryker Evans who was an over-ager and perceived to be a reach by many?

Also, I think your thesis may be right about going mid-way but I don't think your reasoning regarding why he did it. is. I believe he did this because he wanted to try and field a team he deemed would be competitive BUT he would have options if that did not pan out. Realistically, the likelihood the latter would happen was always greater so I am glad he built a roster that could provide flexibility to change approaches if required.

This is a damned if you do, damned if you don't situation for Francis. People will keep pointing to the expansion draft for the failure but not give him credit for recognizing the fact that the approach is not working right away and try to fix it sooner than later. It always goes back to ... ' but the screwed up the expansion draft'.

The other thing I just don't understand is all the people saying that he screwed up the draft because he did not take on picks for not selecting certain players despite Francis having said repeatedly that GMs were more prepared and he did not get offers worth not picking players he was interested in. The other thing about the draft is people crap on him for not having picked Domi, who was coming off injury and did not have a specific timeline for return. He then started off hot but regressed on the Jackets team much better than ours and did not really return much at this TDL. Tank was an option but I would still pick Dunn over him.

I just feel that people who know of Francis' history have already decided that he is not a good GM and every move he makes is put under a microscope and assumed to lead to failure because of his 'past' while easily forgetting that he did a fairly decent job with drafting and building up the Hurricanes before moving on.
 

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