Prospect Info: General Prospects Thread (2015-2016 Season)

[LT]

Updating OP tomorrow. Internet is dead, on my phone for now.

Previous Thread - http://hfboards.mandatory.com/showthread.php?t=1701735

Click to read more...

 

[LT]

I consider this some pretty high praise

He didn't exactly light it up in his brief AHL cameo. I think he needs some time to adapt his game to the NA style before he pushes for icetime on the big club. As of right now, he's still gotta pass up Honka and Oleksiak needs to be removed from the picture (likely, but not guaranteed) in order for Lindell to get icetime on the Stars due to injury...unless we get hit with the injury bug really bad. You also have to predict we add another top 4 vet at some point here. We shall see. I'm relatively high on him and I think he'll eventually crack the Stars top 6, even if it's not next season.

I'd bet you Lindell is ahead of Honka due to age and size no matter how well he played this year. Yes he has to pass Oleksiak but I think that'll be taken care of one way or the other before Lindell gets assigned to Texas. Either Oleksiak is playing in Dallas or he's gone. Lindell appears to be the first guy they'll call up due to injuries.

The last discussion from the previous thread.

 

[LT]

I'd be surprised if Lindell doesn't start in the AHL. Oleksiak is probably still ahead of him at this point, as HF said. I imagine a similar situation as Klingberg with Lindell, but not quite as good of a season once he gets to the NHL (its not impossible though).

Its a very good problem to have. I haven't seen him much outside of some highlights, but offensively, he seems to be ready. We'll have to wait until training camp to see if his defensive game is up to par as well.

I'm excited one way or another, though. Its so nice to finally have our defense trending up for the first time in a long while.

 

[OttMorrow]

Hull Fan, you might be right about Lindell passing up Honka on the depth chart due to size alone. I can see that. I also think Oleksiak gets traded in the offseason. The question is, do they trade Oleksiak for a veteran D?...someone else to get in Lindell's way. My personal opinion is that in an Oleksiak trade, we get a top 4 vet D coming back.

 

[WhatWhat]

Hull Fan, you might be right about Lindell passing up Honka on the depth chart due to size alone. I can see that. I also think Oleksiak gets traded in the offseason. The question is, do they trade Oleksiak for a veteran D?...someone else to get in Lindell's way. My personal opinion is that in an Oleksiak trade, we get a top 4 vet D coming back.

I also agree that Lindell is above Honka on the depth chart just because Honka is younger and smaller, though by the end of the year they may very well flip. As for Oleksiak, he is either one of the top 7 D-men next year or traded. I personally think he will get traded because he would return the most out of the young guns that need to play or go.

 

[Ghost of Kyiv]

It was awesome to finally get to see Lindell at the worlds and it's awfully hard no to be optimistic about a prospect that was the best Dman in Finland and was the #1 Dman on a team that basically played Jokipakka on the bottom pairing. You'd have to think he starts in the AHL to get accustomed to North American hockey, but yeah I think he is ahead of Honka on the depth chart, not just for the size but also due to not wanting to burn a year on Honka's ELC.

 

[Hull Fan]

That too Abilify. 3 years of ELC is better than 2 years and there's no reason to push Honka unless Dallas has another terrible run of injuries. Another full year in the AHL for him can only be a good thing. Lindell on the other hand has 2 seasons playing in a men's league and from all accounts seems not far away from NHL time.

If Daley were 100% healthy I have no doubt he'd be dealt at the draft to open up one spot. Since he's not they may have to wait till right before the season to ship one of the defenders out. I also think that they'll try to give Oleksiak every opportunity this fall to win a job. I doubt they want to give up on him unless a team offers a can't pass deal.

 

[LT]

Who's a good NHL comparable for Lindell?

 

[Michael Farkas]

Hmm...I'm struggling with that myself...I had half a thought about James Wisniewski, but I'm not really content with that answer...

 

[LT]

Bit late, but Desrosiers has an incredible performance Monday night in the QMJHL finals.

47 saves on 48 shots, then won in double OT. They're off to the Memorial Cup.

 

[Satan]

A look at how our goaltending prospects have been progressing.

The Dallas Stars have an unacknowledged history of not being able to draft and develop goaltenders. If you go all the way back to the organizations’ first year at the draft table in 1993, the Stars have drafted 16 goalies in the draft. These few chosen men have played in 1234 games, winning 548 (big thanks to Marty Turco and Mike Smith). Breaking it down further, only 6 of the 16 played in greater than 10 games in the NHL… which isn’t encouraging. Drafting goalies is known to be a crapshoot. They are a massive time investment, just look at Mike Smith; he was drafted in 2001 but didn’t get his first NHL win until 2006 at the ripe age of 24.

More on OTWinner.com

 

[BigG44]

There's a serious flaw with that article. No other team is any better, in fact there's justification to say those results might be be the best in the league ... minimum they are one of the best.

In Goal Magazine already ran several different numbers on the 2001 to 2013 draft looking at various angles ranging from team success to where a player was drafted.

Bottom line, the facts from that article were than in those drafts only 92 of the 321 goalies drafted played 1 or more NHL games. That's only 28.7%. The number one team in that period from 2001 to 2013 to draft a goalie and get them in the NHL was Los Angeles with 6 of 14 drafted goalies or 42.8% playing one or more NHL game.

You're looking at a similar time period where 50% of Dallas' picks accomplished that feat. Without running the numbers for every single team in the league, and considering the results from 2001-2013, that's well above average.

Furthermore, you indicate that 16 players over that time period is a small number. In Goal proves over the same number of years the most goalies taken was 17 by the Philadelphia Flyers (of which only 2 ever played 1 or more NHL games). Most teams were well below that number including 1 with only 5 goalies drafted.

The statement, "The Dallas Stars have an unacknowledged history of not being able to draft and develop goaltenders," is dishonest when compared to the rest of the league. No team has a high success rate. That's the nature of the draft at any position. I'd argue without confirming the numbers that few teams would have produced two starters and two NHL backups. Not to mention that the In Goal magazine and your article factor in the most recent drafts which virtually have no chance whatsoever of contributing to this discussion.

I really enjoyed the prospect breakdowns and report, but I think it'd be fair to point out league success rates instead of skewing the opening with such a negative slant.

Source:
http://ingoalmag.com/general/breaking-nhl-goalie-drafting-2001-2013/
http://ingoalmag.com/news/team-team-breakdown-nhl-goaltender-drafting/

EDIT: Screwed up majorly on the years. My apologies. I don't why I thought it was 2003. Their numbers would be among the worst in the league. Time to eat the crow.

 

[Satan]

It may be harsh but I don't think it's flawed. If you look at the sample size that IGM gives (2001-2013), we've taken 6 goalies in the top 2 rounds of the draft. Those are real valuable picks.

Four of the six turned into duds and two are still up in the air.

I also don't think breaking down goalies to a simple 1 game played in the NHL is fair. It'd be much more interesting to see how many goalies played >10 or 15 NHL games throughout the NHL. That'd let us see if they were actually worthy of playing in the NHL or got called up due to injury.


I do mention that picking goalies is a crapshoot because it is. I may not have acknowledged it in the article in depth of looking at other teams, but I acknowledged it. Going forward, I have a feeling we'll see the scouts go for value picks similar to Brent Moran last year.. but their development trajectory varies extremely. I'm not sure taking an "elite" 17 year old goalie in the 1st round is a risk worth taking unless our forward and defense cupboards are stocked to the top.

 

[BigG44]

It's not harsh at all. I should have just deleted the damn post, but I didn't think that be fair. I did all the research and looked at the numbers no telling how many times and still my brain read the dates wrong over and over again.

I just really liked those articles so I remembered them and was able to find them again easily. Turco ... several of those names should have been just as much a tipoff as the date. I kept thinking 2003 to 2015 somehow.

Anyway ... those articles actually show that Dallas has been among the worst in the league when you apply the appropriate years. I completely mess up the data range. You are 100% correct.

EDIT: Re-reading your post, I think it didn't come across that I'm a moron. None of the data I used was accurate. Your draft data for Dallas was 1993-2014 or 22 years. I was comparing it to only a 12 year stretch. It was a significant oversight on my part.

 

[Satan]

The Dallas Stars have really stocked the defensive cupboards over the past few years. There’s a healthy stock of puck movers, stay-at-home punishers and two-way defenseman in the system to keep the farm in Cedar Park and Idaho fuelled for another few years. With all prospects, there is a large portion of players who will not make it to the NHL. However, this group of diverse defenseman provides the Dallas Stars management with an array of options in a couple years.

Here's the breakdown for all 18 defenseman in the Dallas Stars system. It's relatively lengthy and if you don't care about guys like Dmitry Sinitsyn (shout out, LT) or Troy Vance, just scroll on through.

Hope you guys like it. Right Wing coming up tomorrow. Should be a little shorter, thank ****.

 

[LT]

So, to get this right...

NHL Defenders

• Patrik Nemeth
• John Klingberg
• Jamie Oleksiak

AHL Defenders

• Troy Vance
• Mattias Backman
• Ludwig Bystrom
• Esa Lindell
• Julius Honka

And that's just prospects. The rest are in juniors or Europe.

AHL is going to be crowded. Very crowded. Wouldn't surprise me if Vance spends most of his time in the ECHL, but the other four are definitely AHL worthy, and should be NHL worthy soon.

18 prospects, 5 NHL/AHL vets, and a few AHL only defenders as well. Looking pretty good.

 

[Satan]

That's the way I see it. Jokipakka is also in the NHL Defender category, but I think he's involved in a trade.

 

[Mr Misty]

It's why we can't afford to draft any defensemen this year unless they are Prapavessis type projects. Players need NHL time to build value, our glut is just going to enrich some other teams via waivers.

 

[LT]

It's why we can't afford to draft any defensemen this year unless they are Prapavessis type projects. Players need NHL time to build value, our glut is just going to enrich some other teams via waivers.

Eh, If Hanifin/Provorov/Werenski fell to us at 12, I'd be livid if we passed on them for this reason.

 

[BigG44]

I disagree that it's a given one of Jokipakka or Oleksiak are gone. I think that's an option, but I think it's just as easy both remain. Dallas only will be forced to move one defender, and I'd say Daley followed by Goligoski are moved first before the young guys. Again, that's an option not a given. Moving only one player gives you 7 NHL D and no need to make a change.

Personally ... my guess is Daley or Goligoski are moved and then they do their best to acquire a two-way D with a leaning towards defense or at minimum a defensive defender. If they find one they like, whoever is left after the first move to get to 7 would still be an option to move this time ... so the remainder of Daley, Goligoski, Jokipakka, or Oleksiak. Personally I add Benn to that group as well. I don't think it's unreasonable to think you could start next season with both Oleksiak and Jokipakka, one of the veterans in Daley or Goligoski, a new defender, and Benn out.

They won't take moving Oleksiak lightly. His potential is the exact defender they are said to be looking for: a big bodied D for the defensive zone and the added bonus of some potential offense. I'm not sold that he's a lock to reach that potential, and I don't doubt they have some concerns as well, but they don't have any other option to fill that role remotely close to the NHL. All of their closest players are high end offensive talents in Honka, Lindell, or Backman or smaller, mobile two-way options in Bystrom.

I'd argue the only change Oleksiak moves this summer is for a similar, already developed player. Otherwise, they trust their development. Jamie looked much better in the NHL than he did the AHL. I don't think that's necessarily a good thing because i think he has an attitude problem about going down. That might just be an immaturity issue or it could be more. Still, that's no reason to take away your only other player that could offer you some size like Nemeth.

 

[Satan]

System Breakdown – Right Wing

The right wingers in the Dallas Stars system are for the most part a very homogeneous group. They’re big, gritty and for the majority decent skaters who can create chances and score. Of the group, there are two guys who likely find long-term success with the Dallas Stars. You likely know their names, but what about the rest of the group?

There are only 7 of them in the system in contrast to 18 defensemen, but something tells me it’ll be pretty tough to surpass Valeri Nichushkin and Brett Ritchie in the top 6 for some time.

Whole breakdown is featured here, although there's not a whole lot to talk about.

 

[WhatWhat]

I disagree that it's a given one of Jokipakka or Oleksiak are gone. I think that's an option, but I think it's just as easy both remain. Dallas only will be forced to move one defender, and I'd say Daley followed by Goligoski are moved first before the young guys. Again, that's an option not a given. Moving only one player gives you 7 NHL D and no need to make a change.

Personally ... my guess is Daley or Goligoski are moved and then they do their best to acquire a two-way D with a leaning towards defense or at minimum a defensive defender. If they find one they like, whoever is left after the first move to get to 7 would still be an option to move this time ... so the remainder of Daley, Goligoski, Jokipakka, or Oleksiak. Personally I add Benn to that group as well. I don't think it's unreasonable to think you could start next season with both Oleksiak and Jokipakka, one of the veterans in Daley or Goligoski, a new defender, and Benn out.

They won't take moving Oleksiak lightly. His potential is the exact defender they are said to be looking for: a big bodied D for the defensive zone and the added bonus of some potential offense. I'm not sold that he's a lock to reach that potential, and I don't doubt they have some concerns as well, but they don't have any other option to fill that role remotely close to the NHL. All of their closest players are high end offensive talents in Honka, Lindell, or Backman or smaller, mobile two-way options in Bystrom.

I'd argue the only change Oleksiak moves this summer is for a similar, already developed player. Otherwise, they trust their development. Jamie looked much better in the NHL than he did the AHL. I don't think that's necessarily a good thing because i think he has an attitude problem about going down. That might just be an immaturity issue or it could be more. Still, that's no reason to take away your only other player that could offer you some size like Nemeth.

If we get rid of both those guys, Jordie Benn becomes our vet on the blue line. I agree that one will go(I think Daley) but losing both leaves us with a blue line with an average age in the low 20's

 

[BigG44]

If we get rid of both those guys, Jordie Benn becomes our vet on the blue line. I agree that one will go(I think Daley) but losing both leaves us with a blue line with an average age in the low 20's

That's not the way I intended it to be read. I'm saying IMO Daley is the most likely player moved, and if not him my next guess is Goligoski. They only way both are traded is if they add a different veteran, and I don't think that's unrealistic. Heika was first to suggest moving both.

Personally though ... I think I've said this here or elsewhere in a different post ... my preference would be trade Daley and Benn while adding a Top 4 defender.

That would hopefully lead you with a Top 4 of the new guy, Klingberg, Nemeth and then Goligoski or Demers. The 3rd pair would be anchored by Goligoski or Demers with Oleksiak and Jokipakka fighting for ice time. To illustrate that ...

New Guy-Klingberg

Goligoski-Nemeth
OR
Nemeth-Demers

Goligoski-Jokipakka/Oleksiak
OR
Jokipakka/Oleksiak-Demers

The decision is easier if the new guy is a rightie. I think Nemeth and Goligoski would be your two best LD with this group.

 

[Hull Fan]

Uh no, Demers is your vet and Jordie is your #7. That's assuming they don't bring in a veteran if they move out both of our others. The main debate is how the organization feels about keeping Goligoski. If they see Lindell as Gogo 2.0 then there's no need to pay him UFA costs. But the problem then is do you let him walk for free? I can't picture a scenario where Dallas is in the playoff hunt and they sell Goligoski at the deadline. So either he goes now or he walks or they re-sign him. Which of those seems the most likely?

 

[Mr Misty]

Uh no, Demers is your vet and Jordie is your #7. That's assuming they don't bring in a veteran if they move out both of our others. The main debate is how the organization feels about keeping Goligoski. If they see Lindell as Gogo 2.0 then there's no need to pay him UFA costs. But the problem then is do you let him walk for free? I can't picture a scenario where Dallas is in the playoff hunt and they sell Goligoski at the deadline. So either he goes now or he walks or they re-sign him. Which of those seems the most likely?

I think he has to be resigned. Next year is a good one for UFAs, but that isn't a guarantee they'll get to market. If you are going to overpay a 2nd tier guy, it may as well be one who does good work for you already. We just have to hope the affordable years of our young guys overlap with the ones where Goligoski is overpaid.