GDT: GDT #34 Pittsburgh Penguins vs New York Islanders | December 27th | 7:30 PM | F/L 7-0

xECK29x

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NEW YORK ISLANDERS (16-8-9) VS PITTSBURGH PENGUINS (15-13-4)
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After a three-day break for the holidays, the New York Islanders are back in action to take on the Pittsburgh Penguins on Wednesday to kick off the season series with their Metropolitan Division foes.

The Islanders beat the Carolina Hurricanes 5-4 on Saturday to enter the league-wide break on a high note. Anders Lee scored his 250th career goal in a three-point night (GWG, 2A), while the Islanders had supporting goals from Sebastian Aho, Brock Nelson (1G, 1A), Bo Horvat (1G, 1A) and Mike Reilly (1G, 1A) to power the win. Mathew Barzal and Kyle Palmieri had two-point performances with two helpers each. Ilya Sorokin made 36 saves to contain a high-octane Hurricanes team.

The Penguins dropped a 5-4 overtime decision to the Ottawa Senators on Saturday, picking up one point before the three-day break. Lars Eller, Rickard Rakell and Drew O'Connor scored for the Penguins, while Kris Letang had a three-point night (1G, 2A). Alex Nedeljkovic made 26 saves in his third consecutive start.

The Islanders (41 points) stand second in the Metro with a record of 16-8-9, picking up points in 17 of their last 19 games. The Islanders have a little distance between themselves and Pittsburgh, as the Isles are seven points ahead of the Penguins (34 points), though Pittsburgh has one game in-hand. To illustrate a tightly packed division, the third and sixth place teams in the Metro are separated by four points.

The Isles swept the Pens last season in four meetings (4-0-0), winning three of those matchups in comeback fashion.

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ISLANDERS NOTES​

- The Islanders continue their five-game stretch of playing divisional opponents with a matchup against the Penguins at UBS Arena on Wednesday before taking on the Capitals to complete a brief two-game homestand on Friday. Islanders and Penguins will face off again on New Year’s Eve at PPG Paints Arena. The Isles are 6-2-4 against Metro opponents this season.
- Anders Lee scored his 250th career goal to extend his goal streak to three games. The captain has five goals in his last eight games to reach 10 goals on the season. Saturday’s game-winner marked his 40th of his career, tying Brock Nelson for sixth place in franchise history.
- Mike Reilly buried his second goal of the season on Saturday and recorded his second multi-point night in his 13th game for the Islanders, ending the night with a +3 rating.
- Sebastian Aho for the first time of the season on Saturday for his 10th career goal.
- The Islanders remain undefeated in regulation when Nelson records an assist (10-0-2). The 32-year-old center leads the team in goals (16) and has recorded points in six of his last seven games with 10 points (5G, 5A) over that span.
- In the last 19 games for the Islanders, 16 matchups have been decided by a single goal. Per Islanders team statistician Eric Hornick, the stretch marks the first time in franchise history that 21 of the first 33 games were decided by one goal.
- The Islanders own the league’s sixth best power play (24.7%).

PENGUINS NOTES​

- The Penguins stand seventh in the Metro with 34 points and a record of 15-13-4. The Capitals (39 points) and the Lightning (39 points) occupy both wild card spots in the Eastern Conference, as Pittsburgh has three games in-hand over Tampa Bay but played one more game than Washington.
- Bryan Rust (upper-body) is on LTIR and will not face the Islanders on Wednesday. The 31-year-old forward was injured in a 3-1 loss to the Lightning on Dec. 6, leaving the game in the second period. Rust is making progress toward returning, skating for the first time on Thursday ahead of morning skate, but is not eligible to return until Jan 2.
- Alex Nedeljkovic started in the last three games for the Penguins, going 2-0-1, allowing nine goals and making 68 saves over that span. Through 10 games and nine starts this season, Nedeljkovic has a record of 5-2-2 with a 2.64 GAA and a .917 SV%. The 27-year-old netminder signed a one-year deal as a free agent on Jul. 1 after spending two seasons in the Detroit Red Wings organization.
- Sidney Crosby leads the Penguins in goals (19) and is tied with Jake Guentzel for the team lead in points (35). Crosby has seven points (4G, 3A) in his last five games before the holiday break.
- Guentzel is the team leader in assists (21) through 32 games. The career-Penguin is playing over a point-per-game pace with 14 goals and 35 points in his eighth season.
- Jesse Puljujarvi joined the Penguins on a PTO on Dec. 10. The 25-year-old is still rehabbing after an offseason surgery but is practicing with Pittsburgh to work his way back to game action.
- The Penguins have been strong in the dot this season, ranking second in the league in faceoff wins (54.7%).
 

BMOK33

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Oct 5, 2005
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Road teams performed miserably on 12/27 last year due to being forced to travel day of game. This is one they really should win. I want to say they did badly beat someone last year on this day and they looked flat as heck
 

13th Floor

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Oct 10, 2008
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For the 'defense-first' fans, this chart makes no sense, since we are 7 points ahead of the Pens :huh:

View attachment 790798

I understand that you are on some crusade against "negative posters", but what's the point of your post? Are we all supposed to ignore that some of the most historically predictive underlying metrics of overall record (like current goal differential) are bad?

We're all on the same side: thrilled that we are in 2nd; wary that some of the metrics look bad and point to major flaws that will prevent us from going far. We can all think that and don't need to say it every post. If I mention that the PK is bad, it doesn't erase that the PP is good. Why does everything need to be polarized into us vs them? Is your goal to really bridge that gap between sides or increase the polarization that you hate so much?
 
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Osakahaus

Chillin' on Fuji
May 28, 2021
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Big game either way

Isles want to stay in the race, they'd have to beat a Penguins team that is vulnerable. 1-0-1 against a 5 game stretch with Metro teams. We have the Caps and Penguins after this. Ideally a 3-1-1 record is what we'd like.
 

leeroggy

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Jan 3, 2010
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I understand that you are on some crusade against "negative posters", but what's the point of your post? Are we all supposed to ignore that some of the most historically predictive underlying metrics of overall record (like current goal differential) are bad?

We're all on the same side: thrilled that we are in 2nd; wary that some of the metrics look bad and point to major flaws that will prevent us from going far. We can all think that and don't need to say it every post. If I mention that the PK is bad, it doesn't erase that the PP is good. Why does everything need to be polarized into us vs them? Is your goal to really bridge that gap between sides or increase the polarization that you hate so much?

No, the point is that there is no one way to win a championship in today's NHL, where the league has deemed more scoring and entertainment is going to be the focus (as we see with the way penalties are called for hindering movement).

Under the current way of officiating, we are not going to win with a defense-first approach, as those stats show on the chart. How many of us would believe that we would be outscoring a team with Crosby, Malkin, Guetzel, Letang and Karlsson? I doubt any of us would have predicted that. And the Pens give up 0.4 LESS GOALS than we do, but we are 7 points ahead of them.

This is the point. When the league shows their hand, take it seriously. The GAA league-wide has gone up the last 3 years and is now 2.96, while the league-wide save % is down to .903 this year (we are at .911, so the focus on spending money on the goalies is smart so far). It no longer is about defense being the determinant.

When we went to the ECF the first time, we had a -1 goal differential in the regular season, it isn't as simple as you state. A few bad losses in 82 games skews that stat. Tampa is currently a minus and Detroit is a plus, but Tampa is ahead of them.
 

leeroggy

Registered User
Jan 3, 2010
9,421
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That PK percentage though is so bad.
Sure, but when we are healthy on D, that will creep up, and that number is looking in the rear-view mirror anyhow. The way this season has played out, we've been bad in a number of facets early, and one by one we've improved on most of them. This is the last big piece to fix, and I'm confident we'll improve there. This team is on the right track; a 7-game losing streak and we're here now? How can't I be positive?
 

MJF

Hope is not a strategy
Sep 6, 2003
27,033
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I understand that you are on some crusade against "negative posters", but what's the point of your post? Are we all supposed to ignore that some of the most historically predictive underlying metrics of overall record (like current goal differential) are bad?

We're all on the same side: thrilled that we are in 2nd; wary that some of the metrics look bad and point to major flaws that will prevent us from going far. We can all think that and don't need to say it every post. If I mention that the PK is bad, it doesn't erase that the PP is good. Why does everything need to be polarized into us vs them? Is your goal to really bridge that gap between sides or increase the polarization that you hate so much?
In their effort to be proven right against the masses some people will say anything.
 
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13th Floor

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No, the point is that there is no one way to win a championship in today's NHL, where the league has deemed more scoring and entertainment is going to be the focus (as we see with the way penalties are called for hindering movement).

Under the current way of officiating, we are not going to win with a defense-first approach, as those stats show on the chart. How many of us would believe that we would be outscoring a team with Crosby, Malkin, Guetzel, Letang and Karlsson? I doubt any of us would have predicted that. And the Pens give up 0.4 LESS GOALS than we do, but we are 7 points ahead of them.

This is the point. When the league shows their hand, take it seriously. The GAA league-wide has gone up the last 3 years and is now 2.96, while the league-wide save % is down to .903 this year (we are at .911, so the focus on spending money on the goalies is smart so far). It no longer is about defense being the determinant.

When we went to the ECF the first time, we had a -1 goal differential in the regular season, it isn't as simple as you state. A few bad losses in 82 games skews that stat. Tampa is currently a minus and Detroit is a plus, but Tampa is ahead of them.

I agree that goal scoring is going up and save percentage is going down, but goal differential is a zero sum game. The year you reference the Isles being -1 was the year that the Isles were on a terrible losing streak and about to slip out of the playoffs but then they stopped the season. So, not exactly an argument that favors your point. It's more of an incomplete -- in a way, their weak goal differential compared to their place in their standings was starting to play out exactly as it seems to historically do. We just didn't see the end of the season so we don't know, but we were dropping like a rock and only played Florida because of point percentage.

We were riding a ridiculous long winning streak earlier in the year and then were terrible outside of that. This is where your point works against you. The winning streak inflated our point percentage (much like you are claiming bad losses inflate the bad goal differential), and the metrics that averaged our fully body of work pointed to us dropping like a rock, and then we started to. And I'm looking at the same tea leaves now.

The next year we were a +28 in 56 games and were clearly a top team in the league.

It's OK if I'm watching this team and seeing concerning things. For instance, being dead last in PK. Struggling in giving up goals when we are built from the net out both in strength and salary. Being absolutely terrible in OT and the SO and losing points consistently. Losing 3rd period leads over and over again. With more parity in the league, more very good teams share these flaws, but they are still flaws worth discussing.

It's like I said before: I'm delightfully happy that we are in 2nd and will continue to watch and root for the team as I always do. That doesn't mean I'm going to just ignore the underlying metrics that point to issues and instead of being able to talk about it here, it's just scores of posts that is this new internet-style of engagement where you say nothing of substance but just get mad at the other "side". The post I replied to was this "checkmate atheists" post ridiculing looking at any stats because we're ahead of the Penguins in the standings, while simultaneously crowing that all these negative posters are preventing "old timers" from posting.
 

crashthenet

Registered User
Jul 9, 2004
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Hockey Falls
Always difficult this time of year to figure out where the Pens fit on the hate-o-meter. Rags are undisputed #1 obviously but beyond that it becomes a hazy mélange of punchable faces, despicable fan bases and some legacy grudges. Those being flyers, leafs and these group of dirty brids that we play tonight. I don't really hate any of the current flyer players. I dislike pajama boy immensely. But man, do I despise Letang. Couldn't stomach the young Crosby and not of fan of Mario the hypocrite. But Letang is a guy I love to see get knocked down. Hopefully it happens early and often tonight.
 

leeroggy

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Jan 3, 2010
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I agree that goal scoring is going up and save percentage is going down, but goal differential is a zero sum game. The year you reference the Isles being -1 was the year that the Isles were on a terrible losing streak and about to slip out of the playoffs but then they stopped the season. So, not exactly an argument that favors your point. It's more of an incomplete -- in a way, their weak goal differential compared to their place in their standings was starting to play out exactly as it seems to historically do. We just didn't see the end of the season so we don't know, but we were dropping like a rock and only played Florida because of point percentage.

We were riding a ridiculous long winning streak earlier in the year and then were terrible outside of that. This is where your point works against you. The winning streak inflated our point percentage (much like you are claiming bad losses inflate the bad goal differential), and the metrics that averaged our fully body of work pointed to us dropping like a rock, and then we started to. And I'm looking at the same tea leaves now.

The next year we were a +28 in 56 games and were clearly a top team in the league.

It's OK if I'm watching this team and seeing concerning things. For instance, being dead last in PK. Struggling in giving up goals when we are built from the net out both in strength and salary. Being absolutely terrible in OT and the SO and losing points consistently. Losing 3rd period leads over and over again. With more parity in the league, more very good teams share these flaws, but they are still flaws worth discussing.

It's like I said before: I'm delightfully happy that we are in 2nd and will continue to watch and root for the team as I always do. That doesn't mean I'm going to just ignore the underlying metrics that point to issues and instead of being able to talk about it here, it's just scores of posts that is this new internet-style of engagement where you say nothing of substance but just get mad at the other "side". The post I replied to was this "checkmate atheists" post ridiculing looking at any stats because we're ahead of the Penguins in the standings, while simultaneously crowing that all these negative posters are preventing "old timers" from posting.
You're kind of agreeing with me though. One by one, we've been cleaning up the earlier season issues. The PK is the last major thing to clean up and that comes with a reduced GAA (and goal differential) as it happens. We have been better at keeping the lead and winning the OT games as the season progresses. And in our last 10 games, including the Sharks debacle, we are +5. A +40 pace is going to have us high in the standings. In the 7 game losing streak, we were -14.

An 82-game season is a journey, not a sprint. The key is to peek at playoff time, not the first 20 games.
 
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leeroggy

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If anyone needs a stream for the WJC, there's a YouTube channel TechBoY that is carrying it.
 

CaptDenisPotvin

The Tampa Bay Astros are your 2021 Champions
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That PK percentage is projectile-vomit worthy
I think to a certain extent we have hidden our defenseman 5 on 5 well enough to be competitive. I think the PK is REALLY where we miss Pelech, Pulock and Mayfield. That's 3 of the 4 normal dman on the PK. Obviously its unacceptable but as we get these guys back hopefully....I'm assuming the PK will get better. I just want it to be good for the playoffs hopefully.
 

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