Post-Game Talk: GAME #72: Canucks 3 @ Stars 2 (S/O) (Schaller x2, Leivo S/O winner)

[Zombotron]

4 points away from beating the 2018 Canucks and 6 points away from beating the 2016 Canucks

 

[Oliewud]

The Canucks just outpointed the 2016-17 Canucks with that win. Take that, Canucks! I hate you.

if we can improve by 2pts every year we should be able to make the playoffs by 2030

 

[Lobster57]

Lolololol. Yes, you're gonna score more goals with Tim ****ing Schaller.

this post aged well

 

[Melvin]

Regulation record by year:

2015-16: 22-38 (.366)
2016-17: 19-43 (.306)
2017-18: 25-40 (.385)
2018-19: 20-32 (.385)

Stripping away the coinflips makes the "progress" a little less clear. Literally the exact same win% in actual hockey games as last year, but a better result in OT/SO (10-10 so far this year vs. 6-11 last year)

 

[MS]

Weird game. One one hand, we were generally dominated and conceded an absurd amount of point-blank chances and without Markstrom standing on his head this game could have been 7-2 Dallas.

On the other hand, without an absolutely horrific blown call, we would have been up 3-0.

- Pettersson looks better when he’s selfish. As good a playmaker he is, he needs to shoot.

- Boeser is competing a bit harder and looking a bit less hopeless defensively.

- Leivo was solid and continues to be a good addition. Nothing spectacular but continually solid both ways. Hilarious that in order for Jimbo to make a good trade the other team actually had to identify us as a good fit for a player they were doing a favour to because we were so terrible on the wings and approach us about taking him.

- did Eriksson play?

- in game 72 of the season Schaller had his 2nd game where he didn’t suck. But he still sucks in the larger picture.

- Horvat is just dead. Is trying his hardest but his skating is gone.

- Granlund still sucks.

- 9 minutes for Gaudette while we continue to pointlessly run Pettersson and Horvat into the ground with 20-22 minutes each again is just irritating. And stupid.

- Motte was not good. And that type of player simply can’t make that turnover on the 2-2 goal.

- nice to see Sautner *finally* rewarded for his solid play with a bump into the 18 minute range and a PK shift. Continues to show well.

- Schenn also continues to play well. Should absolutely be re-signed.

- Edler is playing well and taking a huge load but is sagging late in games with the massive icetime and the ice is tilting against him.

- not Biega’s best game. Is best suited in the 18-19 minute range and playing 25 it’s hard to keep your feet moving the way he needs to to be effective.

- Markstrom should really be a Vezina finalist. This is probably the 3rd best goaltending season I’ve seen for this franchise in my lifetime next to only 1991-92 Kirk McLean and 2006-07 Luongo.

 

[Intangibos]

- Markstrom should really be a Vezina finalist. This is probably the 3rd best goaltending season I’ve seen for this franchise in my lifetime next to only 1991-92 Kirk McLean and 2006-07 Luongo.

Weird way to spell Hart but whatever

 

[Laterade]

Thought Brisebois played well. Liked how he can control exits and dump ins on his backhand and forehand. superb puck control. Still needs to get stronger tho

 

[me2]

I wonder if the team would be brave enough to name Markstrom team MVP over Pettersson.

 

[rypper]

I would be ok with Schenn coming back on the cheap to be our 7-8th defender.

Better then spending more on bringing in McQuaid or someone like that.

 

[lousy]

Regulation record by year:

2015-16: 22-38 (.366)
2016-17: 19-43 (.306)
2017-18: 25-40 (.385)
2018-19: 20-32 (.385)

Stripping away the coinflips makes the "progress" a little less clear. Literally the exact same win% in actual hockey games as last year, but a better result in OT/SO (10-10 so far this year vs. 6-11 last year)

I would like to see the similar stats for all teams to come up with a meaningful analysis of these numbers. Every year it is relative to other teams, and to pick this stat and compare it to only one team is a little misleading I think.

 

[megatron]

I would like to see the similar stats for all teams to come up with a meaningful analysis of these numbers. Every year it is relative to other teams, and to pick this stat and compare it to only one team is a little misleading I think.

not sure you know how stats work. There is nothing misleading about the post you quoted.

 

[VanJack]

A number of players looked gassed right now, but fortunately one of them isn't Markstrom. Another 45 save performance and four for four in the shootout. He might be the best goalie in the entire NHL over the past three months.

But Horvat looks to running on fumes and Stecher had probably his worst game this month. Lord knows he tries. But his clearances are muffins and he turns the puck way too many times to be much more than a depth d-man going forward. Sometimes the puck just looks too heavy for him, and while his battle level is high, he's just getting overpowered. And it's a shame the kid didn't work on his shot more at North Dakota...I swear there are kids in the BCJHL who shoot the puck harder.

Fortunately the Ducks, Oilers, Avs and Sabers all win, and Minny picks up a loser point. So little lost in the Jack Hughes sweepstakes. On to Chicago where Demko is likely face another 40-shot barrage. We'll see how he holds up.

 

[me2]

I would like to see the similar stats for all teams to come up with a meaningful analysis of these numbers. Every year it is relative to other teams, and to pick this stat and compare it to only one team is a little misleading I think.

He is comparing this year to previous years, looking for progression. Other teams don't come into it.

 

[lousy]

He is comparing this year to previous years, looking for progression. Other teams don't come into it.

But they do. It is all relative in this league... if other teams fall behind or excel then it messes with the trend. In a league with many teams you cannot look at one teams progression without looking at the other teams in the same league. At least you cannot come to a meaningful conclusion based on that limited scope. They all effect each other.

Edit

What I am trying to say is that it might not look as bad as it does when looking solely at win loss record for an individual team. It also must relate to the rest of the teams in the league. Especially when it comes to evaluating how the team is progressing over time.

 

[Lobster57]

But they do. It is all relative in this league... if other teams fall behind or excel then it messes with the trend. In a league with many teams you cannot look at one teams progression without looking at the other teams in the same league. At least you cannot come to a meaningful conclusion based on that limited scope. They all effect each other.

Edit

What I am trying to say is that it might not look as bad as it does when looking solely at win loss record for an individual team. It also must relate to the rest of the teams in the league. Especially when it comes to evaluating how the team is progressing over time.

not really. if you only look at games that end in regulation, like in the original post, the league overall is ALWAYS .500, so an individual teams progression is independent of the league as whole

 

[DL44]

Lucky fan got his Eriksson jersey signed and got to keep the superstar's stick.

Probably the exact same thought a Sens fan would have if he saw a Canucks fan getting a Burrows stick....
Or Stars fan and Hamhuis...
Or sharks fan and Hansen...
Or a leafs fan and Lumme...

 

[TryamkinPleaseReturn]

And with that, Schaller multiplies his season goal total by about ... what's two times zero?

 

[decma]

Regulation record by year:

2015-16: 22-38 (.366)
2016-17: 19-43 (.306)
2017-18: 25-40 (.385)
2018-19: 20-32 (.385)

Stripping away the coinflips makes the "progress" a little less clear. Literally the exact same win% in actual hockey games as last year, but a better result in OT/SO (10-10 so far this year vs. 6-11 last year)

Good point.

But I think for a fair comparison you need to add the ties back in. Getting more games to the coin flip is progress for a sub-.500 team. With the regulation ties included:

2015-16: 22-38-22 (.402)
2016-17: 19-43-20 (.354)
2017-18: 25-40-17 (.409)
2018-19: 20-32-20 (.417)

For an even better comparison, we should probably look at regulation GF/GA. Anyone have those data handy?

 

[Soups On]

this post aged well

Yup, I quoted myself later on stating how I got owned.

Regardless, Schaller still sucks

 

[Hit the post]

Probably the exact same thought a Sens fan would have if he saw a Canucks fan getting a Burrows stick....
Or Stars fan and Hamhuis...
Or sharks fan and Hansen...
Or a leafs fan and Lumme...

None of those players had a trash contract or in the case of Hamhuis where he probably earned much of his pay during his time there. A better example would be how an Oilers fan would feel getting a Lucic stick. (another player Elmer went hard after).

 

[4Twenty]

Good point.

But I think for a fair comparison you need to add the ties back in. Getting more games to the coin flip is progress for a sub-.500 team. With the regulation ties included:

2015-16: 22-38-22 (.402)
2016-17: 19-43-20 (.354)
2017-18: 25-40-17 (.409)
2018-19: 20-32-20 (.417)

For an even better comparison, we should probably look at regulation GF/GA. Anyone have those data handy?

Why would it be more fair? Getting more coin flips is not progress for any team. Are the Ducks or Avalanche viewing themselves as progress? The whole point is to strip away the coin flips that are OT and shootouts.

The goal differential thing is more interesting for sure, but it isn't really a signal to progress. They still rank near the bottom in differential even though they've limited their goals against. League wide, scoring is up, so GA being down is a good thing, but they're barely going to hit their goal total from last year and goals are up.

And similarly to the one year a Benning team made the playoffs, they've been buoyed by empty net goals. They've got 11 this year.

 

[Hit the post]

Why would it be more fair? Getting more coin flips is not progress for any team. Are the Ducks or Avalanche viewing themselves as progress? The whole point is to strip away the coin flips that are OT and shootouts.

The goal differential thing is more interesting for sure, but it isn't really a signal to progress. They still rank near the bottom in differential even though they've limited their goals against. League wide, scoring is up, so GA being down is a good thing, but they're barely going to hit their goal total from last year and goals are up.

And similarly to the one year a Benning team made the playoffs, they've been buoyed by empty net goals. They've got 11 this year.

That says a lot when you consider they’ve been getting pretty solid goaltending from Markstrom most of the season.

 

[Tables of Stats]

Good point.

But I think for a fair comparison you need to add the ties back in. Getting more games to the coin flip is progress for a sub-.500 team. With the regulation ties included:

2015-16: 22-38-22 (.402)
2016-17: 19-43-20 (.354)
2017-18: 25-40-17 (.409)
2018-19: 20-32-20 (.417)

For an even better comparison, we should probably look at regulation GF/GA. Anyone have those data handy?

That's easy subtract a goal for every OTW and subtract a goal against for every OTL. Do nothing for SOW and SOL games but given that it's a single goal either way and only for the games that ended in OT, it's pretty insignificant.

In our case our record after the first period is 6 OTW - 5 OTL - 4 SOW - 5 SOL which means our goal differential is +1 in the extra frame and -1 at 5-on-5 compared to the standard method of tracking stats. In other words, insignificant.

-----

Why would it be more fair? Getting more coin flips is not progress for any team. Are the Ducks or Avalanche viewing themselves as progress? The whole point is to strip away the coin flips that are OT and shootouts.

The goal differential thing is more interesting for sure, but it isn't really a signal to progress. They still rank near the bottom in differential even though they've limited their goals against. League wide, scoring is up, so GA being down is a good thing, but they're barely going to hit their goal total from last year and goals are up.

And similarly to the one year a Benning team made the playoffs, they've been buoyed by empty net goals. They've got 11 this year.

We're exactly .500 in terms of getting 2 pts. versus getting a loser point beyond the 3 period. Given that we're worse than .500 in 5-on-5 play it seems like a smart move to nurse games into those extra frames. In the new NHL most teams will look to secure a single point by playing safe in the back half of the third if the game is tied. Why risk losing that point?

Why single out the Canucks for playing to the system?

 

[4Twenty]

Fact of the matter is no matter how you slice it, at regulation or after OT/Shootouts, they lose a best 60% of the games. 58% of all games and 62% of just regulation....it's not a big difference, not one that needs more vetting. It is what it is, a poorly built team, depending on 3 forwards up front insulated by a bunch of veteran guys who could replaced by a bunch of minimum salary guys with little difference.

 

[decma]

Why would it be more fair? Getting more coin flips is not progress for any team. Are the Ducks or Avalanche viewing themselves as progress? The whole point is to strip away the coin flips that are OT and shootouts.

Yeah, the whole point is to strip away the results of OT/SO, because those results are random. But getting to a coin flip is a good thing for a sub-.500 team, and a bad thing for an above-.500 team. Just like in the pre-OT NHL, getting a tie was a good thing for a sub-.500 team (improved their point percentage).

To take an extreme example, in the pre-OT NHL, a team that went from 30-50-0 to 3-5-72 would have improved.