GDT: Game 69: Vegas Golden Knights @ Winnipeg Jets | 5:00PM | Air Crash Investigation

[HanSolo]

I often appreciate how fair you try to be but I never said he was a (normal) 7D now, I said that next season if he gets passed by a rookie then he could be "a good 7D to have." He would be a good asset there because he can be a good 6D.

Whitecloud has his best play in tandem with Holden. When Holden shepherds a forward to the corner and Whitecloud gets the puck out of the zone. Playing to their strengths.

Those defensive analytics also said Holden was as good defensively as Schmidt and McNabb for a run of a few months while Schmidt was struggling in his own end. Again, small sample size with Schmidt struggling and playing with Theodore but his overall play this season has been useful. That's all you need or ever get no matter what team you are from that part of your team.

You should check the Holden thread for more defenders of him. At least three posts on the last page or two alone.

Okay we want to talk analytics then?

VS WPG

Whitecloud 46.2 CF%
Holden 37.50 CF% (in spite of not having as many glaring defensive breakdowns tonight he was a disaster at clearing the zone and this state shows it)

VS NJ

Whitecloud 68.0 CF%
Holden 46.2 CF%

VS LA

Whitecloud 70.8 CF%
Holden 59.4 CF% (team worst and I'm pretty sure the eye test corroborates)

VS BUF

CF was a wash. They were both 50%

VS EDM

Whitecloud 64.3 CF%
Holden 50 CF%

VS ANA

Whitecloud 46.2 CF%
Holden 61 CF%

VS FLA

Whitecloud 50 CF%
Holden 44.2 CF%

VS WSH

Whitecloud 40 CF%
Holden 45 CF%

VS NYI

Whitecloud 70 CF%
Holden 62.9 CF%

VS MIN

Whitecloud 25 CF%
Holden 35.3 CF%

Both were terrible in this game don't let a 10% uptick change the fact that 35 is still horrendous Corsi.

VS CAR

Whitecloud 60.7 CF%
Holden 58.76 CF%

So in this 11 game sample: Whitecloud had a better CF% than Holden 7 out of 10 games that the rating wasn't even. Whitecloud was above 60% positive on ice impact 6 out of 11 times while Holden only managed that twice in this 11 game span. Meaning Whitecloud is considerably more likely to be a big help to the team than Holden even if their negative impact tendencies tend to be relatively similar. When Holden plays well, it's not as well as Whitecloud's best games. Of course Holden's CF is negatively impacted by being part of a PK group that has been shit lately but it's not a stretch to suggest he's part of the problem and Whitecloud has nothing to do with it.

Whitecloud's average CF over this stretch was 53.7 which is more positive than not. Holden's average was 50.02 which is just barely above even impact. Of course CF can't account for XD chances against and that, as far as I know, is only tracked as a team stat. But at least to say that Holden is playing his best hockey with Whitecloud is demonstrably false since his season average is 56.4 relative to an almost flat 50. Now you can make the argument that that means Whitecloud is dragging him down but you can just as easily make the argument that he's not equipped to handle this mentor role. Especially given that Whitecloud has more exceedingly positive possession impact games than negative ones.

As far as my own eye test goes, I find that they both tend to make mistakes independently of each other. Like the Kopitar goal for example, Whitecloud and Holden (and Stephenson are there to defend two Kings. Stephenson is chasing the second King behind the net and Whitecloud activates from the crease to attempt to put a wall in front of the player while Holden, trailing Kopitar, instead of staying on the only other LA forward in on the play parks himself in front of the far side crease where there are no LA forwards leaving Kopitar all alone in front. Maybe the goal doesn't happen if Whitecloud stayed put but at least he of two defenders marked one LA forward. Holden marked nobody. Both players made a mistake on the play but at least Whitecloud applied pressure to one of the two opposing forwards. Holden went to no man's land and watched in futility as Kopitar scored. That's not to say Whitecloud hasn't been directly and independently responsible for goals and high danger chances against but again we get back to this issue of relative experience and then you tack on the fact that when Whitecloud is good he has a higher positive impact than Holden when he's having a good night.

And beyond that analytical argument, I still maintain that expectations should not exist in a bubble. Holden has had nearly half a thousand games to not be as much of a liability as a guy who doesn't even have 15 yet.

 

[HanSolo]

I can't understand how you don't understand that 5-6D play this way around the league and that's the reason they are where they are. You're yelling at an issue every team has, their non top four defensemen making errors more than their others, regardless of their age. And it goes beyond that to deny or forget the months of solid play from Holden before this recent stretch.

I was never overly critical of Eakin and I did take a patient approach with him. And he was demonstrably worse for the team than Holden. Holden based been a net positive so I don't think Eakin is a good example.

But Holden isn't having a net positive impact on the team. If anything I'm surprised his CF comes out to about even the last 11 games. But then again keep in mind that he's even in a stretch of games where we've gone 8-3-0. He should be more than a fraction above even in a streak of wins if he were having a "net positive result" and again this doesn't account for high quality chances against, since I can't seem to find the stat for individual players other than goalies which basically renders it a team stat.

And sure, on other average teams Holden fits right in with the crowd of bottom pairing defenseman (though you haven't addressed that he plays higher minutes than most 5-6 defensemen by virtue of his pk utilization. At an average of 19 minutes, he's utilized like a number 4 defenseman). But therein lies the frustration. On most contenders, Holden would be a number 7-8 defenseman. If you want to be content with what we get from him more power to you. The key question is are you okay with average or do you want everyone to be as consistent as they possibly can be?

For me, his inconsistency creates a problem that is a concern for a playoff run. It's not the only concern. Fleury in a rut, Tuch in a never ending slump, the offense drying up and sparking away seemingly at random. But that's another issue for me. If our offense is inconsistent then we NEED our defense and goaltending to come through. And given Fleury's situation, it's a more dire concern that the defense isn't doing everything it can to keep pressure off him. Does that mean I think Holden is the ONLY blueline problem or inconsistent presence? f*** no. But, given defense is my primary personal concern, the way I interpret our situation, Holden is-of the six regular defensemen we play now-the guy I trust least to defend a one goal lead late or kill a late penalty with a game still in reach. I trust him just a little more than Merrill, Engo, or Hague but I trust him the least all the same. I don't trust Whitecloud all that much more either but at least I've seen a tendency to step up with a big and timely defensive stop that exceeds what I expect out of Holden.

This was my opinion the first time we butt heads about Holden and I've seen very little to change my mind since then. Sure he has his positive moments, of course he does, as an NHL regular I would f***ing hope the majority of his defensive work is more positive than not. But that's the thing. On an overall inconsistent defense, he's the guy I'd be least surprised to see directly responsible in blown coverage leading to a high quality chance or goal against. And given what implications that could have for the playoffs I don't think my concern is unjustified.

If your pejorative is to find satisfaction in relative/comparative strength and weakness with the other 30 teams in the league, more power to you. I want this team to be as dangerous as possible and I'll "yell" about the things I view to be an impediment to that aim as much as I want. Just so happens that I think with double the amount of games Whitecloud has played left in the season for the kid to improve I'm willing to be quieter about his mistakes since he has the room to grow even in what's left of this season and the playoffs that has long passed Holden. One guy can get better before the season is over. The other is highly unlikely to.

 

[HanSolo]

Though I'll agree Holden isn't as much of a danger to our team as Eakin. But he's not exactly here anymore and Holden finds himself higher up my list of problem spots than others in Cody's departure.

That being said though I don't think Holden was even THAT bad tonight. He was just terrible at exiting the zone. As far as high danger chances against, he was pretty soft on the second goal against but Fleury should have had it. He wasn't good but I've seen worse from him.

 

[hangman005]

So this team leads the NHL in missed shots right?

I'm not saying the Golden Knights have bad aim, I'm just suggesting that maybe stormtroopers could help them with their accuracy.

 

[Vegan Knight]

But Holden isn't having a net positive impact on the team. If anything I'm surprised his CF comes out to about even the last 11 games. But then again keep in mind that he's even in a stretch of games where we've gone 8-3-0. He should be more than a fraction above even in a streak of wins if he were having a "net positive result" and again this doesn't account for high quality chances against, since I can't seem to find the stat for individual players other than goalies which basically renders it a team stat.

And sure, on other average teams Holden fits right in with the crowd of bottom pairing defenseman (though you haven't addressed that he plays higher minutes than most 5-6 defensemen by virtue of his pk utilization. At an average of 19 minutes, he's utilized like a number 4 defenseman). But therein lies the frustration. On most contenders, Holden would be a number 7-8 defenseman. If you want to be content with what we get from him more power to you. The key question is are you okay with average or do you want everyone to be as consistent as they possibly can be?

For me, his inconsistency creates a problem that is a concern for a playoff run. It's not the only concern. Fleury in a rut, Tuch in a never ending slump, the offense drying up and sparking away seemingly at random. But that's another issue for me. If our offense is inconsistent then we NEED our defense and goaltending to come through. And given Fleury's situation, it's a more dire concern that the defense isn't doing everything it can to keep pressure off him. Does that mean I think Holden is the ONLY blueline problem or inconsistent presence? f*** no. But, given defense is my primary personal concern, the way I interpret our situation, Holden is-of the six regular defensemen we play now-the guy I trust least to defend a one goal lead late or kill a late penalty with a game still in reach. I trust him just a little more than Merrill, Engo, or Hague but I trust him the least all the same. I don't trust Whitecloud all that much more either but at least I've seen a tendency to step up with a big and timely defensive stop that exceeds what I expect out of Holden.

This was my opinion the first time we butt heads about Holden and I've seen very little to change my mind since then. Sure he has his positive moments, of course he does, as an NHL regular I would f***ing hope the majority of his defensive work is more positive than not. But that's the thing. On an overall inconsistent defense, he's the guy I'd be least surprised to see directly responsible in blown coverage leading to a high quality chance or goal against. And given what implications that could have for the playoffs I don't think my concern is unjustified.

If your pejorative is to find satisfaction in relative/comparative strength and weakness with the other 30 teams in the league, more power to you. I want this team to be as dangerous as possible and I'll "yell" about the things I view to be an impediment to that aim as much as I want. Just so happens that I think with double the amount of games Whitecloud has played left in the season for the kid to improve I'm willing to be quieter about his mistakes since he has the room to grow even in what's left of this season and the playoffs that has long passed Holden. One guy can get better before the season is over. The other is highly unlikely to.

I think Holden played better than even Whitecloud is now for a few months back when Schmidt wasn't playing his best. He can raise his level, and I would agree he hasn't had his best games during this month. But it's the lack of recognition of how good he played those few months that would grate me. To say he can't raise his level is to me, to have slept those months he rivalled Schmidt defensively, though Schmidt was struggling for his level. And Theodore was his partner.

I think it can definitely appear that Whitecloud is more impressive because it makes no difference if he's less experienced, he's more skillful and talented than Holden probably ever was. Although Hilden has an easier time getting dangerous shots on goal.

Whitecloud still gets pushed around physically more often but has more skill. Holden can take the physical toll and free up Whitecloud to take the puck and do what he does better. It is false to say it is difficult to eat some checks so your partner can make a skill play but it is not easy either.

 

[CupInSIX]

On the plus side, I think every team that was expected to win ended up losing last night.

That's kind of a plus.

So this team leads the NHL in missed shots right?

I'm not saying the Golden Knights have bad aim, I'm just suggesting that maybe stormtroopers could help them with their accuracy.

They lead the league in shots (2,370) and missed shots (905)

I think they missed about 500 misses. And. That's kind of ironic.

 

[HanSolo]

I think Holden played better than even Whitecloud is now for a few months back when Schmidt wasn't playing his best. He can raise his level, and I would agree he hasn't had his best games during this month. But it's the lack of recognition of how good he played those few months that would grate me. To say he can't raise his level is to me, to have slept those months he rivalled Schmidt defensively, though Schmidt was struggling for his level. And Theodore was his partner.

I think it can definitely appear that Whitecloud is more impressive because it makes no difference if he's less experienced, he's more skillful and talented than Holden probably ever was. Although Hilden has an easier time getting dangerous shots on goal.

Whitecloud still gets pushed around physically more often but has more skill. Holden can take the physical toll and free up Whitecloud to take the puck and do what he does better. It is false to say it is difficult to eat some checks so your partner can make a skill play but it is not easy either.

This feels more on point but should mention I never said Holden can't elevate his play. I referred to his run of consistent play that won him the regular spot over Merrill and Engo and even said "the honeymoon is over"

The problem is his play isn't elevated anymore so either he's been a disappointment relative to ability or that elevated play was an anomaly. Either way right now he's more of a risk factor than he is an asset.