GDT: Game #5: Blues (2-1-1) vs Jets (2-3-0)

[BlueDream]

Just wanted to mention this because I’m a masochist and find it funny in a dark comedy way, I’ve been tracking this teams drop in Corsi% for years. Corsi%, for those who don’t know much about advanced stats, is basically “what percentage of shots on net in games you play are your shots compared to the opponents.” It’s usually a good way to track how good your team is, as very few teams that are low on it at the end of the year end up being actually good (our year were we shot the obscene percentage being an exception. Here’s how we looked in the Cup season and since.

18-19: 51.53% (worth noting the percentage was much higher in the second half)
19-20: 50.78%
20-21: 47.78%
21-22: 47.07%
22-23: 45.85%

And, obviously super early but bad enough to point out, through 5 games this season…

23-24: 39.03%

Yikes. I’d be shocked it it stays that bad, though I see little evidence to think it’s not going to stay in the 45% or slightly lower group. We are a worse team this year then last cause our bad group is older. This year could be rough.

Exactly. This is my entire argument against “it’s only been 5 games.” This has been a trend for a while and in watching them, it feels like we possess the puck less every single game that goes by. That’s the type of stuff that worries me. I’m not expecting them to be great but it makes me question how much Berube is getting through to them with trends like this.

 

[Blueston]

While I’m not on team we are bottom 3, I do think we are likely in that 6-12 range. And fair or not, because this team lacks talent to contend, I would be surprised at this point if berube is still coach when next season starts.

 

[ezcreepin]

So we're going to give all the credit to the goaltenders? Those fringe HOF D and Forward groups didnt factor in?

I never claimed JB couldnt sustain some nice numbers in a Hitchcock system -- I bet he very well could. That system was known for making pedestrian goalies look elite.

That's... that's my point. Binnington is not a HoF goalie but he's better than the guys I mentioned. My comment was I'm curious what his career numbers would be with a stalwart defense like the Blues of the 2010s. Maybe he'd have video game numbers, maybe he wouldn't

 

[Mike Liut]

I think the assumption that "being worse now makes things better later" is extremely flawed. The bottom half of this league is absolutely loaded with teams that struggle to ever translate a tank into respectability, let alone contention. Digging a hole deep enough for a bottom 5 finish very, very often leaves you with a hole too deep for elite talent to climb out of.

Buffalo has missed the playoffs for 12 straight years. They finished dead last (with just 52 points) in 2013/14. They lost the lottery (for Aaron Ekblad) and then won the tank-a-thon in 2015 to finish dead last again in the McDavid/Eichel draft. They lost the lottery, but got the Eichel consolation prize. Best-case scenario, they will make the playoffs a decade after that first dead-last season.

Arizona missed the playoffs a couple years, but didn't truly bottom out until 2014/15 in the McDavid sweepstakes. They have made the playoffs once since then and it was in the bubble playoffs where they made it as the 11 seed.

Vancouver finished 3rd to last in 2015/16 to kick of what became a 4 year playoff drought. In those 4 years they finished 3rd to last, 2nd to last, 6th to last and 9th to last. Then they made the bubble playoffs as the 7 seed! They have now missed the playoffs again 3 years n a row.

Detroit kicked off a 7 year (and counting) playoff drought in 2016/17 by finishing 6th to last. They then finished 5th to last, 4th to last, last, 5th to last, 8th to last, 9th to last, and are now hoping that this is the year they can finally get back to the playoffs.

These 4 teams are all in year 8+ of their full-tank rebuilds. They have a combined two playoff appearances (an 11 seed and a 7 seed). But they are not the only cautionary tales.

Edmonton missed the playoffs for 3 straight years from 2007-2009 before really going all-in on the tank in 2010. From 2009/10 through 2015/16 they finished last, last, 2nd to last, 7th to last, 3rd to last, and 3rd to last. Hey, tank rebuild #1 failed and they were in the middle of a 9 year playoff drought. BUT THEY GOT McDAVID! And Drai who they got at 3rd overall the year before also turned out to be a superstar. Rebuild over! Just kidding, they would miss the playoffs in 3 of McDavid's first 4 seasons. It's been 14 seasons since they committed to tanking and gunning for the 1st overall pick in 2009/10. They got four 1st overall picks, two more top 5 picks and three more top 10 picks since then and McDavid is entering his 9th NHL season. They have 5 total playoff appearances and have won 4 total rounds.

Ottawa kicked off a 6 year (and counting) playoff drought in 2017/18-2019/20 by finishing 2nd to last, last, and then 2nd to last again. They improved after that, but were bottom 12 in each of the next 3 seasons. They appear on the upswing in year 7, but still have some question marks and don't have the cap space to sign one of their better young players to a bridge deal (Shane Pinto).

Florida went full tank in 2010, finishing 3rd to last. They picked 3rd overall in 2010 and 2011, snuck into the playoffs in 2012, then went right back into the dumpster with a dead last finish in 2013 and a 2nd to last finish in 2014. Following this 5 year tank job, they missed the playoffs in 4 of 5 seasons. They didn't win a playoff round until 2022 (12 years after the initial tank), made a massive summer acquisition, and then made a very unpredicted run to the Final where they got their doors blown off.

Their are real consequences to not trying to win as the first wave of the future breaks into the NHL. I can't remember the last truly putrid team that developed a prospect goalie on that NHL roster and then reaped the rewards of his development. The Pens with Fleury? I have no confidence that Hofer develops into anything if we throw the towel in and concede to 3+ years of being terrible in front of him. That's a prospect that we are very likely just punting away in service of a tank.

You probably need to deal 2-3 players that could would still be useful pieces on a 2+ year plan if you truly want to tank this year. More stuff to fill in with new guys. And because of that, now your already existing prospects are coming onto a roster with no support and will either be plugged into a role they aren't ready for and their odds of floundering go way up.

I think you have to truly gut this roster of long term pieces to ensure a tank. That includes moving Binner with significant salary retention (or would have included buying him out last year) and moving at least one of Buch, Thomas, and Kyrou. I don't see a path to ensure a bottom 5 finish this year and then immediately get back on the upswing next year. I'd much, much rather give Berube enough pieces to strive to be in the middle 3rd of the league, commit to trading all the rentals barring a dramatic surprise in our ability, and then use the summer to figure out who the next coach of the team is.

I think a successful rebuild/retool is much more about recognizing the seasons to be sellers at the deadline (to accumulate as many quality assets as possible) is more important than intentionally removing talent to increase lottery odds and improve your draft position. Vegas just won a Cup by using their futures to acquire talent. Florida failed turning high draft picks into a deep playoff run and then finally got there after packaging talent for a dynamic mid-20s player. Army parlayed a bucnh of futures into half a decade of a damn good 1-2 center punch. I care much more about stockpiling assets at the deadline than I do about where our pick lands.

that’s why it’s so hard to win a cup. There isn’t one recipe for success. It seems that everything has to come together at once and still have luck at the same time. I think we are in a good spot because we have a few nice young players and several high end prospects, and now it looks like we’ll be drafting in the top 5-10 for the next few years. We could come away from this rebuild with a loaded pool of young players. I think we need to sell off a few players if possible like Buchnevich, Vrana, Faulk, Leddy, Saad and get as many assets as possible.

just my .02

 

[Blueston]

From the PD, sounds likeBerube is sick of Vrana's sh!t:

After taking the interference penalty, Vrana only played one more shift the rest of the game, a 41-second shift when he was released from the penalty box. He did not see the ice in the final 13:18 of the game and was removed from the second power play unit. “He’s got to play better,” Berube said. “There’s not enough going on.”

Vrana has one goal and two assists on the season, and his three points are behind only Thomas’ four points on the Blues. But on Tuesday night, when Vrana was on the ice at five on five, the Blues were caved in. The Jets had substantial advantages in shot attempts (9-1) and shots on goal (6-1). Both were the worst ratios on the team against Winnipeg.

In his career, Vrana has been one of the best goal scorers on a per-minute basis but has not contributed to other areas of the game when he’s not scoring goals. One hundred percent,” Berube said. “Just can’t wait for opportunities and be an opportunistic player to score goals. There’s got to be more. There’s got to be more.”

 

[Celtic Note]

From the PD, sounds likeBerube is sick of Vrana's sh!t:

After taking the interference penalty, Vrana only played one more shift the rest of the game, a 41-second shift when he was released from the penalty box. He did not see the ice in the final 13:18 of the game and was removed from the second power play unit. “He’s got to play better,” Berube said. “There’s not enough going on.”

Vrana has one goal and two assists on the season, and his three points are behind only Thomas’ four points on the Blues. But on Tuesday night, when Vrana was on the ice at five on five, the Blues were caved in. The Jets had substantial advantages in shot attempts (9-1) and shots on goal (6-1). Both were the worst ratios on the team against Winnipeg.

In his career, Vrana has been one of the best goal scorers on a per-minute basis but has not contributed to other areas of the game when he’s not scoring goals. One hundred percent,” Berube said. “Just can’t wait for opportunities and be an opportunistic player to score goals. There’s got to be more. There’s got to be more.”

This sounds a lot like Vladdy, yet Berube played him. There must be more to this.

 

[Blueston]

This sounds a lot like Vladdy, yet Berube played him. There must be more to this.

he is much worse than vladi. vladi was almost always engaged and physical in offensive zone at least. vladi won puck battles from time to time. vrana just doesn't seem to care that much.

 

[Celtic Note]

he is much worse than vladi. vladi was almost always engaged and physical in offensive zone at least. vladi won puck battles from time to time. vrana just doesn't seem to care that much.

I don’t think Tarasenko was all that engaged when the puck wasn’t on his stick. But Vrana is probably less engaged.

 

[Blueston]

I don’t think Tarasenko was all that engaged when the puck wasn’t on his stick. But Vrana is probably less engaged.

i'm not suggesting he was steen or schwartz, but when so inclined vladi was physical guy. he didn't like defensive zone, but he generally cared until he didn't. best as i can tell, vrana has been a dog for pretty much his entire career.

 

[TheDizee]

From the PD, sounds likeBerube is sick of Vrana's sh!t:

After taking the interference penalty, Vrana only played one more shift the rest of the game, a 41-second shift when he was released from the penalty box. He did not see the ice in the final 13:18 of the game and was removed from the second power play unit. “He’s got to play better,” Berube said. “There’s not enough going on.”

Vrana has one goal and two assists on the season, and his three points are behind only Thomas’ four points on the Blues. But on Tuesday night, when Vrana was on the ice at five on five, the Blues were caved in. The Jets had substantial advantages in shot attempts (9-1) and shots on goal (6-1). Both were the worst ratios on the team against Winnipeg.

In his career, Vrana has been one of the best goal scorers on a per-minute basis but has not contributed to other areas of the game when he’s not scoring goals. One hundred percent,” Berube said. “Just can’t wait for opportunities and be an opportunistic player to score goals. There’s got to be more. There’s got to be more.”

if someone told me that was what he said about kyrou, would have fooled me too

we have so many of these types of people on our roster. armstrong should have been fired years ago. hopefully someone is dumb enough to overpay in a trade for him before army signs him on some 8year idiotic contract for another floating pushover.

 

[Blueston]

if someone told me that was what he said about kyrou, would have fooled me too

we have so many of these types of people on our roster. armstrong should have been fired years ago. hopefully someone is dumb enough to overpay in a trade for him before army signs him on some 8year idiotic contract for another floating pushover.

i know that it doesn't fit your narrative, but kyrou has been quite good this year. i think he struggled last year under weight of contract and increased role/responsibility, but last year aside he has generally been rather engaged for someone as skilled as him. kyrou may never win the selke, but his giveashit meter is way, way higher than vrana.

 

[CaliforniaBlues310]

Vrana and Kapanen were always just going to be middle 6 filler guys until prospects like Bolduc and Snuggerud were ready. I don’t see any reason to extend either.

 

[Mike Liut]

Vrana and Kapanen were always just going to be middle 6 filler guys until prospects like Bolduc and Snuggerud were ready. I don’t see any reason to extend either.

im definitively not extending either and their trade value is diminishing by the day. We’ll be lucky to get 3rds for either one.

 

[CaliforniaBlues310]

im definitively not extending either and their trade value is diminishing by the day. We’ll be lucky to get 3rds for either one.

I wouldn’t be shocked if we keep Kapanen for the season, but I think Vrana gets dealt once they deem Bolduc NHL ready. Can’t see Chief wanting both in the lineup at the same time, ala Krug/Perunovich.