GDT: Game 30: Avs @ Lightning | 5 PM MT | December 8, 2018 | Expendable Youth

[Pierce Hawthorne]

I would agree with you and if I were in charge I would probably try and make that big Roy-like move as well instead of the more patient Sakic approach (not saying that that’s better but it’s what I would do). I think our biggest issue is a 1D though rather than the 2C that most think it to be.

Defense boy committee is working well right now. We don't have a #1 but we have 5 very quality top 4 guys, and the perfect balance of offensive puck movement and shutdown ability. I think leaving the defense as is while we await Makar is fine. I really think he's going to solve any #1 concerns we may have.



I don't necessarily think a 2C in particular is the biggest need, I just think a high end 2nd line in general is what we need most. Doesn't have to be a Center. Someone like Kessel would do wonders to our secondary scoring I think. He'd get to feast on a lot of teams because the top line takes all the toughest D Pairings every night.

 

[EscapedGoat]

I don't believe it.


Probably a heat of the moment post after one of those two dumb losses on that streak.

Wasn't that exactly what RIAL post that you replied to snarkily was saying? You basically just proved his point after jumping down his throat. Two dumb losses and you make a post about having two top 10 picks. Now that they're winning theyre a piece away. Hmm, that sounds very similar to a post I read not long ago.

Lol, we do this all the time.

We win a few games and we are a contender. “Just a piece away. Let’s trade a 1st and other young assets.”

We lose a couple of games and we are a year or two away. “Oh well, two lottery picks will be great!”

Relax.

 

[Raucherhusten]

Yeah, but it's still the Flames.

And we are still the Avs. Overachieving and underrated - just like the Flames. If they win the Pacific everything is possible.

 

[Foppberg]

And we are still the Avs. Overachieving and underrated - just like the Flames. If they win the Pacific everything is possible.

I trust our team over a 7 game series to beat a team like Calgary. Their goaltending is complete dog shit.

Not to mention the physical beat down guys like EJ, Cole, Z etc would put on their elite little smurf. Last time they were in the playoffs Anaheim completely shut him down, to the point where they actually benched him for periods of time to avoid being destroyed any further.

 

[AvsMakar08]

I don't believe it.


Probably a heat of the moment post after one of those two dumb losses on that streak.


The main point is this team is one of the most dangerous in the league and advanced stats support that notion. Were not best in the league but we're up there and are legitimately 1-2 pieces away from contention.

Avs can be contenders as soon as next season. Depending on many factors, including sens 1st, our trades, and how well will Makar and Timmins will adapt to playing in NHL next season.

 

[Pierce Hawthorne]

I'd argue both losses to the Flames are losses we'd never lose today. A 2-0 lead after 20 minutes of pure dominance and a 4-1 lead after 40 minutes. I think the Avs today would close both games out pretty handily.


But I'd also say those two losses combined with the Vancouver debacle were probably big wake up calls to this team after our hot start and really helped this team mature this year. We play much better with leads now then we did pin those games.

Even when Pittsburgh came back from down 3-0 to tie us just last week I thought every goal Crosby scored was pretty unlucky and the Avs were playing generally good despite losing that lead.

 

[Pierce Hawthorne]

Wasn't that exactly what RIAL post that you replied to snarkily was saying? You basically just proved his point after jumping down his throat. Two dumb losses and you make a post about having two top 10 picks. Now that they're winning theyre a piece away. Hmm, that sounds very similar to a post I read not long ago.

Thanks for stating the obvious?

 

[AvsMakar08]

Nobody has been talking about Palat lately. Is he ok? I wonder if Tampa Bay would trade Palat straight up for Kerfoot.

 

[Raucherhusten]

I think it's funny that we're already talking about potential playoff matchups when the season is just 1/3 done. We are not there yet. Member the Blues/Stars last season who looked like sure playoff teams and then fell off the cliff? Oh i member.

 

[PAZ]

On a positive note, we have defense coming, and a #2C isn't the most difficult find.

On a negative note, our future in goal scares the **** out of me. Especially with the market for goal-tending being so ****ing crazy right now. There are not 31 starters in the league right now.

Honestly, compared to the rest of the league we're in pretty good shape for goaltending. There's just a shortage of high-quality goalies, especially with the padding changes. Ideally we'd have a young stud like Vasi or GIbson, but those are pretty scarce.

We have a legit starter in Varly, a potential starter in Grubs, and at minimum (IMO), a potential 1B in Francouz.

 

[CobraAcesS]

Honestly, compared to the rest of the league we're in pretty good shape for goaltending. There's just a shortage of high-quality goalies, especially with the padding changes. Ideally we'd have a young stud like Vasi or GIbson, but those are pretty scarce.

We have a legit starter in Varly, a potential starter in Grubs, and at minimum (IMO), a potential 1B in Francouz.

You thought I was talking about this season?

 

[PAZ]

You thought I was talking about this season?

If Sakic manages this off-season well, we will be set for the next 4-5 years.

 

[Pierce Hawthorne]

I think it's funny that we're already talking about potential playoff matchups when the season is just 1/3 done. We are not there yet. Member the Blues/Stars last season who looked like sure playoff teams and then fell off the cliff? Oh i member.

Meh. I think we've set ourselves up well enough that, barring significant injury problems we should be a playoff team come April.

We're already 10 points up on the .500 mark. Meaning if we played exactly .500 hockey the rest of the season we'd hit 92 points.

Minnesota and Edmonton, who are both just outside looking in for the playoff picture are currently on pace for 90.46 points.


Now I suspect once again the magic number turns out to be ~94 points. But that just means the Avs only have to get 55 points in our remaining 53 games. So a 25-23-5 record gets us that.



Unless we suffer a long term injury to one of Mikko/Mack I think we'll hit that level fairly easily. I think we've built a deep enough Defense that we could withstand an injury to one of the more important guys and be ok. Same thing with goaltending thanks to the addition of Grubauer.


If we lose one of Mack/Mikko, then the pressure is put on the other to step up in that absence and in the secondary scoring to step up, which is where I'm not sure how well we'd fair.

 

[CobraAcesS]

If Sakic manages this off-season well, we will be set for the next 4-5 years.

You could make a case for going either direction, and either one can easily blow up in our faces.

Sign Varly to a multi-year extension; He continues to be relatively healthy, great. Or his contract becomes a f***ing albatross just when we actually start needing cap space. Oh btw we're spending 10M on goal-tending in this scenario. Hope to god Grubs plays well in either scenario because if he does not, oh shit..

Trade Varly; Grubs thrives in a #1 role, or Grubs can't handle being a starter. Oh shit..

There is very little we can do to hedge against the downside of either option too. You can make a very good argument for either decision. So it's going to be hard to blame management if things go south. There are also people who fervently believe re-signing Varly isn't going to be an option either.

Frank is a coin toss without some NHL experience.

 

[Piestany88]

I trust our team over a 7 game series to beat a team like Calgary. Their goaltending is complete dog ****.

Not to mention the physical beat down guys like EJ, Cole, Z etc would put on their elite little smurf. Last time they were in the playoffs Anaheim completely shut him down, to the point where they actually benched him for periods of time to avoid being destroyed any further.

Winnipeg too their goaltending sucks

 

[Piestany88]

You could make a case for going either direction, and either one can easily blow up in our faces.

Sign Varly to a multi-year extension; He continues to be relatively healthy, great. Or his contract becomes a ****ing albatross just when we actually start needing cap space. Oh btw we're spending 10M on goal-tending in this scenario. Hope to god Grubs plays well in either scenario because if he does not, oh ****..

Trade Varly; Grubs thrives in a #1 role, or Grubs can't handle being a starter. Oh ****..

There is very little we can do to hedge against the downside of either option too. You can make a very good argument for either decision. So it's going to be hard to blame management if things go south. There are also people who fervently believe re-signing Varly isn't going to be an option either.

Sign Varly, trade Barrie.

 

[CobraAcesS]

Sign Varly, trade Barrie

That is just full stupid mode, but nothing new here.

 

[Foppberg]

Winnipeg too their goaltending sucks

For now. I still have faith in Helleybuck. Plus they're a much bigger team with better depth.

 

[PAZ]

You could make a case for going either direction, and either one can easily blow up in our faces.

Sign Varly to a multi-year extension; He continues to be relatively healthy, great. Or his contract becomes a ****ing albatross just when we actually start needing cap space. Oh btw we're spending 10M on goal-tending in this scenario. Hope to god Grubs plays well in either scenario because if he does not, oh ****..

Trade Varly; Grubs thrives in a #1 role, or Grubs can't handle being a starter. Oh ****..

There is very little we can do to hedge against the downside of either option too. You can make a very good argument for either decision. So it's going to be hard to blame management if things go south. There are also people who fervently believe re-signing Varly isn't going to be an option either.

Frank is a coin toss without some NHL experience.

With the lack of decent goaltenders in the league, Varly's play would have to fall off a cliff and into an abyss to make him an untradeable. A 35 yr old Mike Smith garnered a positive return. Jimmy Howard is considered a legitimate option for teams with weak goaltending.

The point is, with Varly, Grubs, and Francouz, we have control of what we want to do. I'd say we're top 5 or just outside of the top 5 in goaltending depth for now and the near future (next 4-5 years). I'd sure as hell hedge my bet on this trio than gambling on a young prospect like Demko, Hart or hoping Sorokin comes over.

Also, $10 mil on reliable goaltending is easily worth the cost. I guarantee any of the teams with goaltending woes would kill to be in the situation where $10 mil got them consistent goaltending.

 

[CobraAcesS]

With the lack of decent goaltenders in the league, Varly's play would have to fall off a cliff and into an abyss to make him an untradeable. A 35 yr old Mike Smith garnered a positive return. Jimmy Howard is considered a legitimate option for teams with weak goaltending.

The point is, with Varly, Grubs, and Francouz, we have control of what we want to do. I'd say we're top 5 or just outside of the top 5 in goaltending depth for now and the near future (next 4-5 years). I'd sure as hell hedge my bet on this trio than gambling on a young prospect like Demko, Hart or hoping Sorokin comes over.

So what is Varly's next contract for you?

Are you completely convinced Varly's injury issues are behind him?

Why would Frank sign here if we're keeping both Varly and Grubs with a metric f*** ton of opportunities available around the league?

My point is this awesome set of goaltending could vanish in smoke regardless of what we do.

 

[PAZ]

So what is Varly's next contract for you?

Are you completely convinced Varly's injury issues are behind him?

Why would Frank sign here if we're keeping both Varly and Grubs with a metric **** ton of opportunities available around the league?

My point is this awesome set of goaltending could vanish in smoke regardless of what we do.

I'd go as high as 5 x $6.5 mil to retain Varly (possibly 6 x $6.5). Anything less and it's a stupid easy decision - albeit if he wants over $7 mil long-term or a 7-8 year contract that's where decisions get difficult. I'm not sold that Varly's injuries are behind him, but I'm convinced that he can stay healthy and have consistent enough play for another team to want to gamble on him. Goaltending (especially with the equipment change) is going to be a hot commodity for the next few years.

I agree there is a decent chance Frank might bolt next year to another team, but who knows maybe Sakic can convince him to stay for another year if he likes our goalie coach. I agree our awesome goaltending might vanish, but looking at the rest of the teams in the league it's not like we'll drop to the bottom of the pack because that's a huge drop.

Edit: If you aren't comfortable with our goaltending situation in the future, I just don't see how you could be comfortable with any team's goaltending situation unless you had a young stud like Gibson or Vasi.

 

[Cousin Eddie]

Most of my buddies are Leafs fans and you wouldn’t believe how many of them keep saying they can’t wait for the Avalanche/Leafs cup finals and how we should travel to see them live when it happens.

Them talking about the Leafs in the cup finals isn’t anything new. Mentioning the Avs on the other side definitely is though.

I don’t think the Avs are cup contenders yet, but a lot of other hockey watchers out there believe they are. Whether we are or not, we’re certainly A lot closer to it than we were a year or so ago.

 

[CobraAcesS]

I'd go as high as 5 x $6.5 mil to retain Varly. Anything less and it's a stupid easy decision - albeit if he wants over $7 mil long-term or a 7-8 year contract that's where decisions get difficult. I'm not sold that Varly's injuries are behind him, but I'm convinced that he can healthy and have consistent enough play for another team to want to gamble on him. Goaltending (especially with the equipment change) is going to be a hot commodity for the next few years.

I agree there is a decent chance Frank might bolt next year to another team, but who knows maybe Sakic can convince him to stay for another year if he likes our goalie coach. I agree our awesome goaltending might vanish, but looking at the rest of the teams in the league it's not like we'll drop to the bottom of the pack because that's a huge drop.

It's much too 50/50 for my liking. We're trying to take steps forward toward competing. Having a drop off in our goal-tending could be crippling for where we're looking to compete in the league.

I just completely disagree with you on being able to move Varly easily if injuries continue to be an issue again. Inconsistent is one thing, but dead money is something completely different. Teams are going to take a chance on the guys you talk about because there isn't a huge commitment coming with the gamble. That wouldn't be the case for a 6M+ starter who isn't viewed as someone you can rely to play a starters set every year.

Of course if it isn't us, then some team will likely pay Varly this off-season either way. We will not be in a strong negotiating position with him though.

I have to admit I'm at a bit of a loss here in understanding how you don't see the magnitude of the situation. Especially when both directions have such a massive downside.

 

[AvsFan29]

I think we're currently a top 3 team in the West. The West is weaker than the last few years, and we're playing good hockey.

As for being a top 5 team in the league, we play the top team in 3 hours. Couldn't ask for a better way to find out what we got.

I'm pumped for this game

 

[PAZ]

It's much too 50/50 for my liking. We're trying to take steps forward toward competing. Having a drop off in our goal-tending could be crippling for where we're looking to compete in the league.

I just completely disagree with you on being able to move Varly easily if injuries continue to be an issue again. Inconsistent is one thing, but dead money is something completely different. Teams are going to take a chance on the guys you talk about because there isn't a huge commitment coming with the gamble. That wouldn't be the case for a 6M+ starter who isn't viewed as someone you can rely to play a starters set every year.

Of course if it isn't us, then some team will likely pay Varly this off-season either way. We will not be in a strong negotiating position with him though.

I have to admit I'm at a bit of a loss here in understanding how you don't see the magnitude of the situation. Especially when both directions have such a massive downside.

Is it an important decision that can affect our future? Yup. Could it have a negative outcome? Sure.

But look around the league, how many other teams even get the opportunity to have this potential of goaltending? Goaltending simply isn't a strength for the majority of teams out there.

Varly/Grubs tanden is top 5-10 in the league.
Grubs/Francouz tanden would be around 15-20 IMO.

There's very, very few goaltenders that don't have question marks when they get re-signed. Ben Bishop had a horrible contract year. Dubnyk was Oiler'd. Jones, Darling, Raanta, Talbot, Hutton were backups. Hellebyck had 1 good year.

It's a big decision but if you take the worst case scenario option when you're re-signing a goaltender, you're going to be in perpetual limbo like St. Louis is/was.