G Yaroslav Askarov - SKA-Neva St.Petersburg, VHL (2020, 11th, NSH)

[PostFriend]

Think, he’s always goaltending in the “best” teams. How hard could it be... He has an aggressive style and leavening many rebounds for his skaters to handle. He’s strong down on ice with good butterfly technique but makes to many rebounds. Good defences helps him in Russia. Today we saw a weaker defence that gives the Czech lots of time to waiting for him going down in butterfly for hit it high...
He’s really strong in game close to the net, but we saw another game today. I think it disclosed him a little today. We also saw that his skating and stickhandling is to weak at this level.
Have someone seeing him winning many games for his team even when they are weaker and loosing shots on goal clearly? I haven’t...
Not even close to Vasilevsky!
Of course just one game today, but we saw what I thought we would see...
Overrated? I don’t know...

 

[DFF]

Do not draft a goalie early

99% chance you will regret it

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

Think, he’s always goaltending in the “best” teams. How hard could it be... He has an aggressive style and leavening many rebounds for his skaters to handle. He’s strong down on ice with good butterfly technique but makes to many rebounds. Good defences helps him in Russia. Today we saw a weaker defence that gives the Czech lots of time to waiting for him going down in butterfly for hit it high...
He’s really strong in game close to the net, but we saw another game today. I think it disclosed him a little today. We also saw that his skating and stickhandling is to weak at this level.
Have someone seeing him winning many games for his team even when they are weaker and loosing shots on goal clearly? I haven’t...
Not even close to Vasilevsky!
Of course just one game today, but we saw what I thought we would see...
Overrated? I don’t know...

This Russian defense is not weak. It's probably the best defense in the tournament.

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

Do not draft a goalie early

99% chance you will regret it

Do the Habs or Lightning regret it? Drafting Askarov early is not like drafting Zach Fucale early.

 

[OldScool]

Think, he’s always goaltending in the “best” teams. How hard could it be... He has an aggressive style and leavening many rebounds for his skaters to handle. He’s strong down on ice with good butterfly technique but makes to many rebounds. Good defences helps him in Russia. Today we saw a weaker defence that gives the Czech lots of time to waiting for him going down in butterfly for hit it high...
He’s really strong in game close to the net, but we saw another game today. I think it disclosed him a little today. We also saw that his skating and stickhandling is to weak at this level.
Have someone seeing him winning many games for his team even when they are weaker and loosing shots on goal clearly? I haven’t...
Not even close to Vasilevsky!
Of course just one game today, but we saw what I thought we would see...
Overrated? I don’t know...

Is Askarov a good goalie prospect - yes. Is he massively overhyped - yes. As the previous post mentioned that every Russian team he has played on were probably favorites to at a minimum medal if not win it all. To further that the Russian teams are defensive minded and limit quality scoring chances. In fact if you look at the teams he plays on and their backup goalie their stats are very similar. But you have people saying he is a phenom and tearing up the Russian leagues but if you do the research his stats aren’t that good - roughly 42nd in league for gaa and save % out of 60 or so goalies. Is it promising for a 17 year old - sure, but he isn’t tearing up the russian leagues at all.

 

[SoundAndFury]

This is probably a pretty bad time to say because it feels like jumping on bandwaggon but this WJC will open the eyes to a lot of people, I think. Askarov was being treated like the next coming of Jesus by some and he isn't, he isn't invincible. I have compared his numbers to Vasilevsky's before (on these boards) and they are slightly worse, albeit similar.

So sure, he is a very good prospect but him being #3 in some rankings is just bonkers to me. We could speculate Vasy went so low due to the Russian factor which has decreased since but still.

 

[SoundAndFury]

Do the Habs or Lightning regret it? Drafting Askarov early is not like drafting Zach Fucale early.

Do Dallas Stars regret drafting Campbell early? Probably, most likely. This is 18 y.o. draft, you don't know who is Zach Fucale beforehand.

 

[SoundAndFury]

But you have people saying he is a phenom and tearing up the Russian leagues but if you do the research his stats aren’t that good - roughly 42nd in league for gaa and save % out of 60 or so goalies. Is it promising for a 17 year old - sure, but he isn’t tearing up the russian leagues at all.

He is playing in men's league though which is something none of the other high-end Russian goalie prospects have done before at this age. And Russia had quite a big number of those lately.

 

[OldScool]

Hype: askarov was dominant against American last year leading to U18 silver medal.

Reality: askarov had avg stats for that tournament and vs the Americans he was off angles badly on goals and I believe USA hit 5 posts. Game could have been 7-3 as a matter of inches. In shootout the Americans didn’t even get shots off in shootout as they overstickhandled and fumbled puck. knight is a way better goalie IMO - askarov has highlight saves because he is off angle and sporadic. Knight and calmer and in better position.

I guess it how you look at it but today’s performance wasn’t unexpected IMO. Great goalie prospect but they hype is out of control on him. Honestly he isn’t that much ahead of other draft able goalies in the draft but his hype is.

 

[OldScool]

He is playing in men's league though which is something none of the other high-end Russian goalie prospects have done before at this age. And Russia had quite a big number of those lately.

He is playing in the lower men’s league in the VHL and has subpar stats compared to his peers. He played one game in KHL. It’s promising for his age but he isn’t dominating. Most goalies that are in this draft class are playing vs men as well.

 

[Ctrain2k]

Think, he’s always goaltending in the “best” teams. How hard could it be... He has an aggressive style and leavening many rebounds for his skaters to handle. He’s strong down on ice with good butterfly technique but makes to many rebounds. Good defences helps him in Russia. Today we saw a weaker defence that gives the Czech lots of time to waiting for him going down in butterfly for hit it high...
He’s really strong in game close to the net, but we saw another game today. I think it disclosed him a little today. We also saw that his skating and stickhandling is to weak at this level.
Have someone seeing him winning many games for his team even when they are weaker and loosing shots on goal clearly? I haven’t...
Not even close to Vasilevsky!
Of course just one game today, but we saw what I thought we would see...
Overrated? I don’t know...

I don’t know much about him, but the way you describe his style reminds me of Bobrovsky.

 

[DFF]

Do the Habs or Lightning regret it? Drafting Askarov early is not like drafting Zach Fucale early.

No but they are exceptions

The best NHL goalies were not high picks and there is a long list of first round failures.

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

Do Dallas Stars regret drafting Campbell early? Probably, most likely. This is 18 y.o. draft, you don't know who is Zach Fucale beforehand.

You are missing the point. If we are talking about a goalie that is widely acknowledged the best goalie in 5-10 years, it's different from taking a goalie because someone is the best goalie available in a draft or because your team has the need for a goalie. There's a point in a draft where even mid/late first round skaters are a gamble, even more so than the goalie because while 18 year old goalies are unpredictable, non-elite 18 year old skaters are more unpredictable in their development than a generational 18 year old goalie prospect.

 

[SoundAndFury]

He is playing in the lower men’s league in the VHL and has subpar stats compared to his peers. He played one game in KHL. It’s promising for his age but he isn’t dominating. Most goalies that are in this draft class are playing vs men as well.

Well this doesn't counter my point in any way. Yes, he is playing in the VHL so it does mean his competition is mostly goalies in their mid-20s. None of the other Russian goalies, be it Bobrovsky, Vasilevsky, Shestyorkin, etc. played in the VHL at this age or in their draft year. So it's a pretty remarkable (and unmatched, at this point) feat for someone at 17. I agree with your sentiment he is overrated but his stats in the VHL really have no correlation with it.

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

No but they are exceptions

The best NHL goalies were not high picks and there is a long list of first round failures.

Does Askarov not project in that same tier of goalie as those two players?

 

[SoundAndFury]

You are missing the point. If we are talking about a goalie that is widely acknowledged the best goalie in 5-10 years, it's different from taking a goalie because someone is the best goalie available in a draft or because your team has the need for a goalie. There's a point in a draft where even mid/late first round skaters are a gamble, even more so than the goalie because while 18 year old goalies are unpredictable, non-elite 18 year old skaters are more unpredictable in their development than a generational 18 year old goalie prospect.

Well that was my point, Campbell was that "best in the 5 years goalie" who has won everything at every level he has played in up to the pro leagues. I'm not missing the point, maybe you are too young to remember it. He was considered just as much of a sure thing as Askarov is now. By the time he was drafted he had both U18 and U20 gold medals too.

 

[OldScool]

Well this doesn't counter my point in any way. Yes, he is playing in the VHL so it does mean his competition is mostly goalies in their mid-20s. None of the other Russian goalies, be it Bobrovsky, Vasilevsky, Shestyorkin, etc. played in the VHL at this age or in their draft year. So it's a pretty remarkable (and unmatched, at this point) feat for someone at 17. I agree with your sentiment he is overrated but his stats in the VHL really have no correlation with it.

Playing at the VHL comparison to other goalies is meaningless as well. Askarov has also had the benefit of there being no top tier Russian goalies in the 00 and 01 birth years so he got additional opportunities.

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

Well that was my point, Campbell was that "best in the 5 years goalie" who has won everything at every level he has played in up to the pro leagues. I'm not missing the point, maybe you are too young to remember it. He was considered just as much of a sure thing as Askarov is now. By the time he was drafted he had both U18 and U20 gold medals too.

Sometimes players don't pan out. Yakupov was a 1OA forward that busted. It can happen at any position. I think the thought process is sometimes more important than the result when speaking about drafting philosophies. If your strategy is sound and it doesn't work out, it doesn't mean that you abandon the strategy in the future.

And for what its worth, I agree with you that I would not take Askarov in the top 3. You mentioned that Vasilevskiy might've been underrated in hindsight. I think he was. I see no problem with picking Askarov somewhere from 6-15. Top five is a little trickier to justify.

 

[DFF]

Does Askarov not project in that same tier of goalie as those two players?

So did a bunch of other busts

My point is goalies are very risky at 18 yrs old

Is he a 1st round..Sure but I wouldn't pick a goalie in the top 10. Most top 10 skaters are sure thing

 

[SoundAndFury]

Playing at the VHL comparison to other goalies is meaningless as well.

That's what I'm saying, nothing really puts it in any context. You can say him being 40th in Sv% in the VHL is bad, you can say 17 y.o. actually performing adequately in men's league is bloody good. Since we have nothing to compare him to it means next to nothing. His previous international performances are a much better way to compare him to, again, closest comparable is, Vasilevsky. As far as statistics go, that is.

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

So did a bunch of other busts

My point is goalies are very risky at 18 yrs old

Is he a 1st round..Sure but I wouldn't pick a goalie in the top 10. Most top 10 skaters are sure thing

Like who? Who is in the same tier as him that busted? Are there stats that say a goalie of his caliber disproportionately busts compared to elite skaters?

 

[SoundAndFury]

Sometimes players don't pan out. Yakupov was a 1OA forward that busted. It can happen at any position. I think the thought process is sometimes more important than the result when speaking about drafting philosophies. If your strategy is sound and it doesn't work out, it doesn't mean that you abandon the strategy in the future

That is true but the conventional logic is that goalies are way easier to find out of nowhere, in the late rounds, in Europe, they are cheaper to trade for, etc. For a 6-15 first-round pick you can get a perfectly good established NHL goalie like Schneider (at the time he was traded and actually very good) or Grubauer if the situation becomes desperate. You can't get a first-line forward for it though. So that's why drafting high-end forward carries much more value and this is a VERY deep draft.

 

[Snagari]

Like who? Who is in the same tier as him that busted? Are there stats that say a goalie of his caliber disproportionately busts compared to elite skaters?

Jack Campbell, Chet Pickard, Riku Helenius, Marek Schwartz, Dan Blackburn. All drafted after 2000 and all drafted before the #19 pick which Vasilevsky was. That's a quite big portion of busts on goalies who have gone in the top 20 in the last 19 years.

 

[Zine]

He is playing in the lower men’s league in the VHL and has subpar stats compared to his peers. He played one game in KHL. It’s promising for his age but he isn’t dominating. Most goalies that are in this draft class are playing vs men as well.

No they certainly are not.

 

[PostFriend]

So did a bunch of other busts

My point is goalies are very risky at 18 yrs old

Is he a 1st round..Sure but I wouldn't pick a goalie in the top 10. Most top 10 skaters are sure thing

I agree with you 100% and especially when all "stats-experts" knows that a goalie is good and is the next top goaltender in the NHL. This is when it becomes risky. Do never only trust stats when its become thoughts about goalies. You must see them a lot, in games and in practicing.
Look at Askarov's gameplan and judge if his hips and knees will be well until he is 30 years in the NHL !? I say never! He need to change lots of things.
He has a good change to be able to play in the NHL, absolutely.
Askarov makes many saves in extreme positions, which looks fantastic, but why. He is often misplaced (and little weak rebound control also). He works good square to the puck but is far too often out of position and leaves a lot of net open. Two of the goals yesterday were good examples of that. You will be punished immediately at this level and certainly at next level in the NHL too.
He needs to be more standing on the skates and be more calm, better patience as well as working with angles and positioning, always being centered in the shooting line. Sounds easy, doesn't it...
In NHL teams will have active goalies outside the net. Thats not Askarov. He needs to develop skating and stickhandling a lot.
His fine stats give him top rankings of course, but what does the statistics really mean? It's history. What can be developed and how easy is he to adapt to NHL-level? Some goaliecoaches at absolute top level say they are doubtful.
I definitely think he is a firstround pick, but in the bottom half if so, and he can certainly be a starting goalkeeper in the NHL, but it is a risky project, is my assessment. Today he misses lots of "tools" for the big step to NHL-goalielevel, but he's still young!
Of course wish him the best of luck!