G Dustin Wolf (2019, 214th, CGY)

[HarrySPlinkett]

Dustin Wolf is ~6’0”~ just like how Gaudreau is ~5’9”~

Wolf is quite small by NHL goalie standards. Even Saros looks bigger

Goaltending is about looking big, not being big.

You can look plenty big at 6 ft.

 

[Artorius Horus T]

Last 4 games in the AHL, faced 143 shots, 6 goals against, .960 sv%, 1,50 gaa

 

[Artorius Horus T]

Some consistency issues ATM..

Last 5 W games : 3 goals against, 176 shots faced, .983 sv%, 0.60 gaa
Last 5 L games : 20 goals against, 143 shots faced, .860 sv%, 4.00 gaa

 

[HighLifeMan]

Some consistency issues ATM..

Last 5 W games : 3 goals against, 176 shots faced, .983 sv%, 0.60 gaa
Last 5 L games : 20 goals against, 143 shots faced, .860 sv%, 4.00 gaa

I wouldn't exactly call that inconsistency considering he has a total of five losses in 21 starts on the season. Every goalie on the planet is going to get shelled at the pro level from time to time. That's the nature of the position and the sport.

 

[Doctor No]

Agreed - his season so far has been overwhelmingly green (at least a standard deviation better than expected opponent-adjusted save percentage):

Source (Dustin Wolf), insert standard caveats regarding the limitations of save percentage (some but not all of which are ameliorated here).

 

[Fantomas]

Some consistency issues ATM..

Last 5 W games : 3 goals against, 176 shots faced, .983 sv%, 0.60 gaa
Last 5 L games : 20 goals against, 143 shots faced, .860 sv%, 4.00 gaa

This is not inconsistency. Goalies have much worse stats in losses. That's just normal.

 

[Bounces R Way]

Some consistency issues ATM..

Last 5 W games : 3 goals against, 176 shots faced, .983 sv%, 0.60 gaa
Last 5 L games : 20 goals against, 143 shots faced, .860 sv%, 4.00 gaa

Goalies typically have better stats in wins than they do in losses, that's not inconsistency..

 

[LeProspector]

When are we going to see this kid in the show?

 

[Hinterland]

When are we going to see this kid in the show?

Whenever Jacob Markström misses extended time...which may very well be now. Otherwise he may get some games in towards the end of the season.

I don't know if he's gonna make the opening night roster but I'm pretty sure he's gonna get a fair chance to compete for lots of starts next season. Until then I feel like the Flames are gonna patient because they don't wanna risk his confidence and, most importantly, his waiver eligibility.

 

[wetcoast]

Agreed - his season so far has been overwhelmingly green (at least a standard deviation better than expected opponent-adjusted save percentage):

View attachment 799462

Source (Dustin Wolf), insert standard caveats regarding the limitations of save percentage (some but not all of which are ameliorated here).

I really don't know anything about projecting prospects to NHL goalies in terms of success but you seem to know a lot about goalies what's your impression of Wolf and his chances of being a difference maker at the next level?

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

Whenever Jacob Markström misses extended time...which may very well be now. Otherwise he may get some games in towards the end of the season.

I don't know if he's gonna make the opening night roster but I'm pretty sure he's gonna get a fair chance to compete for lots of starts next season. Until then I feel like the Flames are gonna patient because they don't wanna risk his confidence and, most importantly, his waiver eligibility.

You keep saying this and it's driving me crazy.

Vladar is not an NHL goalie. If they are a halfway smart team, they won't care about his spot. When Wolf is ready, he should be the backup.

 

[Hinterland]

You keep saying this and it's driving me crazy.

Vladar is not an NHL goalie. If they are a halfway smart team, they won't care about his spot. When Wolf is ready, he should be the backup.

Why? I don't see a single reason for the Flames to do that. They're not a contender. So why would you risk both your prospects confidence and waiver status if all you can do is lose? Wolf is highly unlikely to eat Markström's lunch and if he does, that would ruin the tank. Vladar is a great tank commander. Flames can only lose by bringing up Wolf. He's gonna get some NHL games in this season but generally it's much more important for him to get game time and he's getting that in the AHL.

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

Why? I don't see a single reason for the Flames to do that. They're not a contender. So why would you risk both your prospects confidence and waiver status if all you can do is lose? Wolf is highly unlikely to eat Markström's lunch and if he does, that would ruin the tank. Vladar is a great tank commander. Flames can only lose by bringing up Wolf. He's gonna get some NHL games in this season but generally it's much more important for him to get game time and he's getting that in the AHL.

When have they ever tanked? Signing Kadri and taking Huberdeau back for Tkachuk was admitting they won’t. They are 5 points out of a playoff spot. As always, they will try to retool.

How can they only lose bringing up Wolf? Him figuring out the NHL is part of their ticket to being a contender again. I agree with the idea that there’s no guarantee a full season of Wolf amounts to a good NHL goalie yet. He might need two or three more years, but his waiver eligibility is irrelevant. You bring him up and get him started. He’s NHL ready and should not go down again, unless it gets to the point he shows he’s not an NHL goalie and isn’t part of the next core.

 

[Hinterland]

When have they ever tanked? Signing Kadri and taking Huberdeau back for Tkachuk was admitting they won’t. They are 5 points out of a playoff spot. As always, they will try to retool.

How can they only lose bringing up Wolf? Him figuring out the NHL is part of their ticket to being a contender again. I agree with the idea that there’s no guarantee a full season of Wolf amounts to a good NHL goalie yet. He might need two or three more years, but his waiver eligibility is irrelevant. You bring him up and get him started. He’s NHL ready and should not go down again, unless it gets to the point he shows he’s not an NHL goalie and isn’t part of the next core.

They're 5 points behind teams with games in hand and much better rosters. Huberdeau sucks and the Flames are totally not gonna make the playoffs. And even if, they're not gonna win a round, let alone play for titles.

The only scenario where playing a goalie prospect like this actually makes sense is if you're contending and your goalie prospect is on the same level or better as your other goalies. I'd argue that none of that is the case here but even if, it won't matter. I'm pretty confident the Flames plans for Wolf are pretty much as I described them in this thread.

Also, roster flexibility does matter. It's very important for NHL teams. Your last sentence is actually key as well. I think the case of Spencer Knight once again reminded everybody to be careful with goalie prospects. You don't wanna be stuck in such a situation with a goalie prospect you can't demote just because you played him in the NHL for no particular reason.

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

Also, roster flexibility does matter. It's very important for NHL teams. Your last sentence is actually key as well. I think the case of Spencer Knight once again reminded everybody to be careful with goalie prospects. You don't wanna be stuck in such a situation with a goalie prospect you can't demote just because you played him in the NHL for no particular reason.

Please explain to me the scenario where the roster flexibility will matter. Which other goalie is going to come around that will make them think Wolf belongs in the AHL for reasons other than he's not good enough for the NHL? it certainly won't be Vladar. 26 year olds with an .896 SV% are not anyone worth worrying about.

And if you run into a situation where Wolf hits this 76 game threshold, and you still think he's not an NHL goalie, you probably have a scenario where you are thinking he's not an NHL goalie in the future and won't be part of your core. There was almost no way he could've hit this threshold from 2023-24 and 2024-25. That would require 75 games over those two seasons. Thats nearly a 50% share of the games during that time. The only scenario it could be remotely possible is that he's a 1B starts-wise in 2023-24 and the 1A starts-wise in 2024-25. But again, if you are giving a guy that type of role on your team and still are questioning after it if he belongs in the league, you probably don't care about his waiver eligibility anymore because you've answered what you have in Wolf. He will be 24 by that point. If he's an NHL goalie, it should be known by then.

Knight was a completely different situation. First round pick. He probably asked for certain guarantees when signing his ELC. Better pedigree. Not undersized. I agree he was rushed to the NHL, although his scenario was completely different. It isn't adding up the scenario where Wolf's waiver-eligibility matters.

 

[Hinterland]

Please explain to me the scenario where the roster flexibility will matter. Which other goalie is going to come around that will make them think Wolf belongs in the AHL for reasons other than he's not good enough for the NHL? it certainly won't be Vladar. 26 year olds with an .896 SV% are not anyone worth worrying about.

And if you run into a situation where Wolf hits this 76 game threshold, and you still think he's not an NHL goalie, you probably have a scenario where you are thinking he's not an NHL goalie in the future and won't be part of your core. There was almost no way he could've hit this threshold from 2023-24 and 2024-25. That would require 75 games over those two seasons. Thats nearly a 50% share of the games during that time. The only scenario it could be remotely possible is that he's a 1B starts-wise in 2023-24 and the 1A starts-wise in 2024-25. But again, if you are giving a guy that type of role on your team and still are questioning after it if he belongs in the league, you probably don't care about his waiver eligibility anymore because you've answered what you have in Wolf. He will be 24 by that point. If he's an NHL goalie, it should be known by then.

Knight was a completely different situation. First round pick. He probably asked for certain guarantees when signing his ELC. Better pedigree. Not undersized. I agree he was rushed to the NHL, although his scenario was completely different. It isn't adding up the scenario where Wolf's waiver-eligibility matters.

Look. I disagree completely and I'm pretty sure that unless the Flames desperately need him because of for example a Markström injury, he's not gonna be regularly with the Flames this season. It's a useless discussion because we're not gonna agree on anything. I'd bet a lot that I'm right though because as I said, Flames have no reason to promote him.

He's gonna get some games this season but he'll have to wait for next season to get a real chance.

Also, retool etc is bs. Semantics. At the end of the day, the Flames roster is a mess and the franchise needs high end prospects to turn things around. Flames suck and they're not gonna make the playoffs. If you need confirmation, check this out:

NHL Playoff Odds -MoneyPuck 2024 Playoff & Cup Odds

NHL Playoff Odds updated many times a day. Playoff seeding, Stanley Cup, and Draft Lottery Odds too.

moneypuck.com

 

[User1996]

I could see a situation post deadline where he gets in. I’m hopeful there will be some interest in Vladar for a late pick, in which case Wolf can get his feet wet and feel comfortable with some starts and hit the ground running next year.

 

[Hinterland]

I could see a situation post deadline where he gets in. I’m hopeful there will be some interest in Vladar for a late pick, in which case Wolf can get his feet wet and feel comfortable with some starts and hit the ground running next year.

The only reason why teams are (maybe) gonna trade for Vladar is organizational depth. For that to happen, the Flames would have to waive him first and retain salary. I don't think they'll go there since he's their tank commander but we'll see.

 

[Doctor No]

I really don't know anything about projecting prospects to NHL goalies in terms of success but you seem to know a lot about goalies what's your impression of Wolf and his chances of being a difference maker at the next level?

He moves really well although he has to. I'm worried about his size but he has the technique. Will be interesting to see what elite scorers can do on him.

 

[Fig]

I could see a situation post deadline where he gets in. I’m hopeful there will be some interest in Vladar for a late pick, in which case Wolf can get his feet wet and feel comfortable with some starts and hit the ground running next year.

Flames have used zero of the 3 retention spots that we assumed they'd have used by now. Retaining on Vladar isn't out of the question.

Wolf training under Markstrom could be like a Rinne/Saros scenario. Don't have to be identical styled goalies to have one mentor the other.

 

[Doctor No]

Dumb little trivia - Wolf now has a a record of four wins, zero losses, three ties, and two championships in two AHL All-Star competitions. 34 saves on 41 shots.

 

[Jay26]

Whenever Jacob Markström misses extended time...which may very well be now. Otherwise he may get some games in towards the end of the season.

I don't know if he's gonna make the opening night roster but I'm pretty sure he's gonna get a fair chance to compete for lots of starts next season. Until then I feel like the Flames are gonna patient because they don't wanna risk his confidence and, most importantly, his waiver eligibility.

Lol! Are you really suggesting that he still might not be on the roster next year? Man, at that point I'd be asking for a trade. They don't want to risk his confidence? That could be the argument every single season for not putting him in the NHL. At some point you just need to graduate him already.

Why? I don't see a single reason for the Flames to do that. They're not a contender. So why would you risk both your prospects confidence and waiver status if all you can do is lose? Wolf is highly unlikely to eat Markström's lunch and if he does, that would ruin the tank. Vladar is a great tank commander. Flames can only lose by bringing up Wolf. He's gonna get some NHL games in this season but generally it's much more important for him to get game time and he's getting that in the AHL.

This is not how you run an NHL team. When a prospect is ready, he's ready. You don't hold him back because the team isn't good or he might ruin a lottery pick. You put him on the team and if he's really good and gets the team wins then the team is all the better for it.

 

[Hinterland]

Lol! Are you really suggesting that he still might not be on the roster next year? Man, at that point I'd be asking for a trade. They don't want to risk his confidence? That could be the argument every single season for not putting him in the NHL. At some point you just need to graduate him already.


This is not how you run an NHL team. When a prospect is ready, he's ready. You don't hold him back because the team isn't good or he might ruin a lottery pick. You put him on the team and if he's really good and gets the team wins then the team is all the better for it.

That's exactly how you run an NHL team. As a GM you have to make such decisions. Jake Oettinger is only the latest example. He was still playing AHL when he was already a top goalie in the NHL. Wolf is nowhere near that level. His (limited) NHL performances are ranging from underwhelming to solid. He's not ready to really challenge Markström for the starting gig just yet. Wolf can always ask for a trade but I'm not sure he'd do himself much a favor. For now he should stay in the AHL where he gets to be a clear cut starter.

 

[thefutures]

Imagine not playing cause Dan vladar is around

 

[Hinterland]

Imagine not playing cause Dan vladar is around

I think it has a lot more to do with Markström than with Vladar. Without Vladar, some other dude would be in his spot. It's Markström and the team's poor performance but mostly roster flexibility.