Future of the Calgary Flames

[Lunatik]

Last year the Flames were 26th? In goals for. Are people of the opinion adding 15 goal Lindholm and 20ish goal Neal will vault them into the top 10? Top 15?

Please read the following quoted post. It will enlighten you as to why we think we will score more goals, I wouldn't hold my breath on being in the top 10, but top 15 is certain something that should be within reach.

In addition to that information.

Goals out: Ferland (21), Hamilton (17), Brouwer (6), Stajan (4), Versteeg (3), Jagr (1), Shore (1)

Total out: 53​

Goals in: Neal (25), Lindholm (16), Ryan (15), Hanifin (10), Czarnik (0)

Total in: 66​

So, with what changes we made offensively and an expected normalization of our shooting percentage, there is no reason to think we can't be at least middle of the pack in goals scored.

The amount of ignorance regarding the Flames is absolutely astonishing.

"No game breaking talent" - despite having Gaudreau who is coming off a point per game season and Monahan who has to be the most underrated player on all of HF, the guy is 18th in the entire NHL in goals scored and 5th in game winning goals since entering the league, yet can't even get the respect of being called a #1C.

People completely ignore that we were firmly in a playoff position last season before Mike Smith fell to injury, they ignore that this was also done with next to no secondary scoring and shooting an astonishing low shooting percentage. They look at the final standings and see we finished 20th last year and ignore that the Flames were without 3 of their top players over the final 8-10 games.

In case anyone was wondering, here are how Flames did for shooting this past season compared to the previous 4 seasons (min. 20 games for this past season and the total for the previous 4):

Player Name	Shots (Prev. 4 seasons)	SH% (Prev. 4 seasons)	Shots (2017-18)	SH% (2017-18)	Difference
Backlund, Mikael	633	11.2%	214	6.5%	-4.7%
Ferland, Micheal	262	8.0%	144	14.6%	6.6%
Giordano, Mark	700	8.3%	214	6.1%	-2.2%
Brodie, TJ	394	6.9%	118	3.4%	-3.5%
Bennett, Sam	259	12.0%	157	7.0%	-5.0%
Frolik, Michael	752	8.8%	167	6.0%	-2.8%
Brouwer, Troy	534	14.4%	79	7.6%	-6.8%
Hathaway, Garnet	33	3.0%	68	5.9%	2.9%
Stajan, Matt	233	14.2%	65	6.2%	-8.0%
Lazar, Curtis	196	6.6%	65	3.1%	-3.5%
Hamonic, Travis	487	3.3%	107	0.9%	-2.4%
Stone, Michael	491	4.1%	98	3.1%	-1.0%
Versteeg, Kris	583	9.6%	49	6.1%	-3.5%
Kulak, Brett	30	0.0%	73	2.7%	2.7%
Gaudreau, Johnny	567	12.9%	227	10.6%	-2.3%
Monahan, Sean	727	14.7%	202	15.3%	0.6%
Hamilton, Dougie	714	5.9%	270	6.3%	0.4%
Tkachuk, Matthew	142	9.2%	188	12.8%	3.6%

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

So the only guys to improve their shooting percentage are Ferland (first full season w/Gaudreau & Monahan), Hathaway (2nd year), Kulak (2nd year), Tkachuk (2nd year) and Monahan and Hamilton, both of whom fall into a normal +/- range of less than a percent.

Overall totals for those players is a drop of approximately 1.6%, even halfing that and shooting an additional 0.8% on the year would have seen about a 20 goal increase would have put the Flames middle of the pack in goals... shooting the full +1.6%, would have seen the Flames top 10 in scoring.

People loved to talk about how shooting stats will normalize when the Flames shot over their heads a few years back, but now completely ignore that when the opposite has happened.

 

[Snakepit]

for quite a while the flames have had a one note style and their superstar is an undersized player in the least important position.

watching the flames i would say too many of their good players lack imagination or an x factor. they are good players but team canada 4th liners or bottom pair dmen. overall it's like watching a very good crash and bang junior team. there is too much reliance on the push as a way of winning games and on scoring off the rush. not enough creative or opportunistic play.

tkachuk might save them. he seems crafty.

It'll be interesting to see if the new coaching staff let's them play a little more openly. They were so stiffled creatively under Gultzan

 

[Soundwave]

How many years does Giordano have to go until people realize that his play isn’t falling off of a cliff? You do realize he didn’t start playing elite level hockey until his 30’s, right ? And he’s always one of the top players in fitness testing if not the best when those tests occur.

This whole “he’s getting old” is getting old. Sorry HF, but Giordano is one of the outliers of the “declining play after being over 30” club.

Father Time is undefeated. Players don't get better after age 35.

Jarome Iginla would probably fitness test better than quite a few younger NHL players this coming September, that doesn't mean he isn't on the ice a shell of the player he was even 5 years ago. It's a young man's sport.

 

[Tkachuky]

Father Time is undefeated. Players don't get better after age 35.

Jarome Iginla would probably fitness test better than quite a few younger NHL players this coming September, that doesn't mean he isn't on the ice a shell of the player he was even 5 years ago. It's a young man's sport.

Gio still has IMO 2-3 seasons of playing the way he plays right now. Talk all you want about his age but the more important part is how people don't consider him one of the best Dman in the league. He isn't top 5, but sure as hell people can argue that he is 5-15. Seeing some top 20 lists without him is unreal.

 

[Soundwave]

Gio still has IMO 2-3 seasons of playing the way he plays right now. Talk all you want about his age but the more important part is how people don't consider him one of the best Dman in the league. He isn't top 5, but sure as hell people can argue that he is 5-15. Seeing some top 20 lists without him is unreal.

The problem with that is that's kind of putting a young team in an awkward spot. When other players are peaking, he's basically probably gonna be done, if he was 26 instead of 35, that's obviously a very different story. It's just not an ideal setup.

 

[joe dirte]

In fairness, I do think they've spent basically a decade not fully committing to going after a cup or rebuilding. Mediocrity begets more mediocrity in the NHL. They need to make some moves one way or another.

 

[joe dirte]

Gio still has IMO 2-3 seasons of playing the way he plays right now. Talk all you want about his age but the more important part is how people don't consider him one of the best Dman in the league. He isn't top 5, but sure as hell people can argue that he is 5-15. Seeing some top 20 lists without him is unreal.

Why? I think it's pretty safe to say he's not top 20 anymore.

 

[Tkachuky]

The problem with that is that's kind of putting a young team in an awkward spot. When other players are peaking, he's basically probably gonna be done, if he was 26 instead of 35, that's obviously a very different story. It's just not an ideal setup.

Or you could look at it the other way (lets say at 37-38 Gio just retires - for arguments sake) where in that time, Brodie/Hanifin develop into being #1 & #2. In the next 2-3 we also expect 1 of the D prospects we have to develop into a top 4 guy.

A lot of things have to happen for the Flames to make some noise and go on some deep runs, but I am hopeful and I feel that this team they assembled has the best chance of doing so.

Brodie - I've seen him play since he started with the Flames and yeah his past 2 years have been very 'meh'. But boy when he is on, he is a very good Dman. Putting my money on the fact that he comes back to that form.

 

[Tkachuky]

Why? I think it's pretty safe to say he's not top 20 anymore.

Why anymore? When is the last time he was top 20 in your mind?

 

[joe dirte]

Why anymore? When is the last time he was top 20 in your mind?

Depends how you look at it. He was a top 5 or 10 dman about 4 to 8 years ago, IF you ignore that he couldn't stay healthy. Really, it's been a few years now.

 

[PsYcNeT]

Depends how you look at it. He was a top 5 or 10 dman about 4 to 8 years ago, IF you ignore that he couldn't stay healthy. Really, it's been a few years now.

I'd like to know what stats you're looking at that say this, because by all defensive metrics, Gio has been remarkably consistent for the last 5 years.

 

[Stickpucker]

It'll be interesting to see if the new coaching staff let's them play a little more openly. They were so stiffled creatively under Gultzan

Bill Peters plays a very "north south" system that seems to do the opposite. His relationship with Semin should explain this. I am not saying Peters was the reason for Semins decline.

 

[Stickpucker]

@Walk with Elias Ryans goals were a big result of Skinner carrying him. Who will prop him up in Calgary? Will he be centering James Neal?

 

[guzzy]

Gio finished 16th in Norris voting this year, while the mighty Karlson finished 12th. The previous year he was still 8th. Gio still has gas left in the tank and is still a top 20 dman.

 

[Lunatik]

@Walk with Elias Ryans goals were a big result of Skinner carrying him. Who will prop him up in Calgary? Will he be centering James Neal?

Even if Ryan only pots 10 goals, we still have we more goals coming in, than going out. Between that and the normalization of our shooting percentage, we should at least be middle of the pack. That's also not accounting for anyone breaking out offensively.

But why pay attention to reason and statistics when you can make baseless and uninformed assumptions just because you don't like the coach.

 

[Dread Clawz]

The Flames are fine, they're a bubble team with some good young players. I'm a big Hanifin fan.

 

[SaltNPeca]

Flames are an interesting team - I think the cycle of mediocrity (bubble team) should be on the way out. Last year they looked great for stretches but totally mentally collapsed. I feel like if their young guys can improve on their trajectories even slightly and they can get themselves in the right headspace, they can absolutely make the playoffs and maybe even win a round. I could see this team as a perennial playoff team for sure.

What I find harder to visualize though is this team as a cup contender - to me they just don't have the pieces to reach that final level. It's not easy to win the cup though and I definitely think they are a pretty good team and should be going forward.

They are the perennial bubble team, so if I have to weigh in that's their future. Narrowly missing playoffs or out by round 2 the majority of years. Maybe a blip up or down on occasion.

Without the bubble-breaker player or set of players I also don't see them winning a Cup with any certainty. The 2004 run was so clearly led by Iginla (RIP Iggy's career) and Miikka Kiprusoff. No Gadreau-hate, no Monahan-hate. By comparison look @ McDavid's 17-18 season. Gadreau can put up a lot of points, undress D-men, and make players around him better. A guy like Iginla almost literally carried the Flames to the show. A team like the Flames needs 1 or 2 of those guys. This is not to say one of their players doesn't develop into that guy, but I don't see it right now.

#1 on my list looking into the next 5 years would be in goal for the Flames. Develop the forwards, maintain the strengths at D, and look for something special in trade, free agency, or draft. Remember you got Kipper for a 2nd round pick? Stay positive.

 

[Tkachuky]

Depends how you look at it. He was a top 5 or 10 dman about 4 to 8 years ago, IF you ignore that he couldn't stay healthy. Really, it's been a few years now.

I will disagree with you if you think Gio was better 4-8 years ago vs the past 4 years.

 

[Volica]

Father Time is undefeated. Players don't get better after age 35.

Jarome Iginla would probably fitness test better than quite a few younger NHL players this coming September, that doesn't mean he isn't on the ice a shell of the player he was even 5 years ago. It's a young man's sport.

Iggy was also never an great skater. The game changed around him.

Girodano's a smooth, good skater that's a physical freak. He's also not punching people every 5-10 games, and especially last year with Smith in net, took all kinds of less abuse.

Also, low KMs on his body.

I honestly don't see Giordano's play dropping off to a point where he's not a top pairing guy for at least another 3 years. 3 years is a lot of time. We have two guys who could hopefully pick that mantle up.

Guy's a definition of a true 1D, IMO, top 10/15 in the league. Puts up good offensive numbers, elite defensive metrics, elite possession metrics.

 

[Bjornar Moxnes]

Gio still has IMO 2-3 seasons of playing the way he plays right now. Talk all you want about his age but the more important part is how people don't consider him one of the best Dman in the league. He isn't top 5, but sure as hell people can argue that he is 5-15. Seeing some top 20 lists without him is unreal.

Some don't even consider him a 1D....

 

[Bank Shot]

Even if Ryan only pots 10 goals, we still have we more goals coming in, than going out. Between that and the normalization of our shooting percentage, we should at least be middle of the pack. That's also not accounting for anyone breaking out offensively.

But why pay attention to reason and statistics when you can make baseless and uninformed assumptions just because you don't like the coach.

The statistics say that Bill Peters teams always have low shooting percentages.

Carolina 5 on 5 shooting % under Peters:

14/15- 29th
15/16- 24th
16/17- 20th
17/18- 29th

Seems like you are the one making baseless and uninformed assumptions if you are expecting to have an improved shooting percentage under Peters.

 

[Bank Shot]

Iggy was also never an great skater. The game changed around him.

Girodano's a smooth, good skater that's a physical freak. He's also not punching people every 5-10 games, and especially last year with Smith in net, took all kinds of less abuse.

Also, low KMs on his body.

I honestly don't see Giordano's play dropping off to a point where he's not a top pairing guy for at least another 3 years. 3 years is a lot of time. We have two guys who could hopefully pick that mantle up.

Guy's a definition of a true 1D, IMO, top 10/15 in the league. Puts up good offensive numbers, elite defensive metrics, elite possession metrics.

Only Flames fans would have that kind of opinion, because that's what you WANT to believe.

Everyone else knows that his play could fall off a cliff at any minute because that is what happens to 35+ year old players.

Here's a list of the defencemen that played at 37 last season:
Chara
Kronwall
Beauchemin
Orpik

All of them shells of their former selves, but Giordano will be different. Is he immortal?

 

[KCC]

Every year ppl and the media say they will be good and they aren’t. This year it’s the same thing. Still don’t see it

 

[Volica]

Only Flames fans would have that kind of opinion, because that's what you WANT to believe.

Everyone else knows that his play could fall off a cliff at any minute because that is what happens to 35+ year old players.

Here's a list of the defencemen that played at 37 last season:
Chara
Kronwall
Beauchemin
Orpik

All of them shells of their former selves, but Giordano will be different. Is he immortal?

Any proof of his play slipping at all? Or more nonsense from you that's been spouting off in this thread?

 

[blankall]

Only Flames fans would have that kind of opinion, because that's what you WANT to believe.

Everyone else knows that his play could fall off a cliff at any minute because that is what happens to 35+ year old players.

Here's a list of the defencemen that played at 37 last season:
Chara
Kronwall
Beauchemin
Orpik

All of them shells of their former selves, but Giordano will be different. Is he immortal?

Chara is 41. Four years ago he was playing great.

The other 3 players on your list were just never that good. Kronwall was pretty good, but lacked the vision of a #1 d-man.