Free Agents and Trade Thread - Offseason on Hold Edition

[Dekes For Days]

You seek to demand observable truth while disregarding the transitive logic.

The only thing I seek is valid evidence to claims being made. It's interesting you bring up logic, because your logic makes no sense. What motivation would Dubas have to not offer Marner a reasonable contract? What motivation would there be to "lowball"? Why was there never a peep about lowball from anyone until it was strategically beneficial to the only party making the comment, over half a year after the fact? What motivation would Marner have to seek a reasonable deal that offseason, when his production had been abnormally hindered, and he was about to gain increased opportunity, as somebody with a lot of belief in himself?

Stop hedging on "reasonable contract" and start focusing on better contract.

That's a pretty ridiculous way of looking at it. Of course Marner's contract would have been less than 10.9m if he signed after year 2, but that doesn't mean he should have been given it. Giving Marner an unreasonable contract based on speculation would have carried considerably more risk, and significantly hurt the other necessary negotiations going forward. People would have been in here complaining about it even more, and it could have led to consequences that could have increased the cost of the 3 combined, or led to us losing one.

So we know that the demands were definitively sub 9mm

No, we don't know that.

And 8.5mm offer would not have been characterized as a lowball by Ferris.

We don't know that either.

 

[ACC1224]

The problem I see here is your unwillingness to see what is obviously in front of you. You seek to demand observable truth while disregarding the transitive logic.
Stop hedging on "reasonable contract" and start focusing on better contract. As an upper limit, Marners contract demands would have been constrained.
He wouldnt have asked for Mcjesus money nor Eichel money. I hope we can all agree on that. Arguing for cap adjusted Kane money would have been absurd without knowing he had a certainty of putting up 90+ points. So we know that the demands were definitively sub 9mm. And 8.5mm offer would not have been characterized as a lowball by Ferris. So far, we are at a number far lower than what Marner signed for. Both Marner and Dubas rolled the dice and Marner won. Dubas's only chance was to not place the bet and hedge the risk that Marner was betting on. Dubas failed to hedge and that is all she wrote.
Part of the problem was that Dubas incorrectly learned from Mr. Magoo Lamoriello to take his time making big decisions (he actually was quoted as saying something to that effect).
Let's hope he unlearns that before it happens again.

Dubas made two mistakes with Marner.
Not taking his initial ask and then signing Matthews first.

 

[WTFMAN99]

Is there a case where there was a pending UFA, the team re-signs them and the team trades them before the new contract kicks in WITHOUT any drama etc around it like a player requesting a trade etc?

 

[Dekes For Days]

Is there a case where there was a pending UFA, the team re-signs them and the team trades them before the new contract kicks in WITHOUT any drama etc around it like a player requesting a trade etc?

He wasn't technically a pending UFA, and I'm not 100% sure if there was drama surrounding it, but Carter was traded just before his 11 year extension kicked in.

 

[Notsince67]

Dubas made two mistakes with Marner.
Not taking his initial ask and then signing Matthews first.

By and large I agree. The initial ask might have been brought down as much as .5mm as a counter but it is hard to believe they couldnt strike a deal somewhere in between.

 

[Notsince67]

The only thing I seek is valid evidence to claims being made. It's interesting you bring up logic, because your logic makes no sense. What motivation would Dubas have to not offer Marner a reasonable contract? What motivation would there be to "lowball"? Why was there never a peep about lowball from anyone until it was strategically beneficial to the only party making the comment, over half a year after the fact? What motivation would Marner have to seek a reasonable deal that offseason, when his production had been abnormally hindered, and he was about to gain increased opportunity, as somebody with a lot of belief in himself?

That's a pretty ridiculous way of looking at it. Of course Marner's contract would have been less than 10.9m if he signed after year 2, but that doesn't mean he should have been given it. Giving Marner an unreasonable contract based on speculation would have carried considerably more risk, and significantly hurt the other necessary negotiations going forward. People would have been in here complaining about it even more, and it could have led to consequences that could have increased the cost of the 3 combined, or led to us losing one.

No, we don't know that.

We don't know that either.

So you believe that Marner asked for a 9mm+ contract after a 68 point season? Just trying to clear this up because you seem to be disputing my point that his ask was very likely below that. Give me a range of where you think the ask was instead of being obstinate.

 

[Stephen]

In the summer of 2018, the internet was already speculating what kind of contract Marner was likely to be demanding. Full term, $8 million, etc. Then they play him with Tavares, puts up nearly 100 points and the rest is history.

Toronto Maple Leafs: Mitch Marner’s Contract Negotiations Could Be Tough

 

[Cappuccino]

Dubas made two mistakes with Marner.
Not taking his initial ask and then signing Matthews first.

If Dubas would have signed Marner first, who knows what Matthews might ask, could be a lot more...

 

[Notsince67]

If Dubas would have signed Marner first, who knows what Matthews might ask, could be a lot more...

Matthews never saw Marner as a comparable. It was always McJesus.

 

[Notsince67]

In the summer of 2018, the internet was already speculating what kind of contract Marner was likely to be demanding. Full term, $8 million, etc. Then they play him with Tavares, puts up nearly 100 points and the rest is history.

Toronto Maple Leafs: Mitch Marner’s Contract Negotiations Could Be Tough

The 7 to 8 might have been a bit optimistic. On full year performance alone, he was easily getting 7mm. On upward performance trends, probably 8mm because it looked like his game was elevated to at least a point a game from December of that year. Signing a year early required some motivation because he was player that avoided big injuries and was running at an annualized point rate of over 90 points from Jan to April
Tops, 8.5mm for 7 to 8 years seemed about the right number. Would look pretty damned good right now.

 

[Dekes For Days]

So you believe that Marner asked for a 9mm+ contract after a 68 point season? Just trying to clear this up because you seem to be disputing my point that his ask was very likely below that.

No, I'm disputing your claims that aren't supported by any evidence. Also, it was 69 points and that did not accurately represent his offensive abilities to that point, which was probably where the disconnect was. The contentious issues that existed in his 3rd year contract negotiation existed to an even greater extent after his 2nd year.

Nobody knows what his actual ask was, or how willing he was to sign a contract. What we do know is that they had negotiations, Dubas had all the motivation to offer a fair and reasonable contract, Dubas had zero reason to lowball, and there was zero mention of lowballing at the time or by any neutral party. What we do know is that Marner had little reason to sign a contract at that time, at least in terms of a reasonable deal based on what he had done to that point, with abnormally hindered production relative to his quality, and increased opportunity coming for somebody with a lot of belief in himself. What we do know is that Marner's agent has historically and in that negotiation used every sketchy trick in the book, and took every measure and all available time to get his clients as much money as possible.

Whatever actually happened, people shouldn't go around complaining about something not happening, when they have none of the necessary information to determine whether it should have happened, or what the consequences of that decision would have been on, for example, other negotiations.

 

[Stephen]

The 7 to 8 might have been a bit optimistic. On full year performance alone, he was easily getting 7mm. On upward performance trends, probably 8mm because it looked like his game was elevated to at least a point a game from December of that year. Signing a year early required some motivation because he was player that avoided big injuries and was running at an annualized point rate of over 90 points from Jan to April
Tops, 8.5mm for 7 to 8 years seemed about the right number. Would look pretty damned good right now.

Agreed, the numbers in the article were low, but we didn't really expect the Leafs to settle on an AAV amount that close to $11 million.

 

[ACC1224]

If Dubas would have signed Marner first, who knows what Matthews might ask, could be a lot more...

He was always going to slot in under McDavid.

 

[ACC1224]

The 7 to 8 might have been a bit optimistic. On full year performance alone, he was easily getting 7mm. On upward performance trends, probably 8mm because it looked like his game was elevated to at least a point a game from December of that year. Signing a year early required some motivation because he was player that avoided big injuries and was running at an annualized point rate of over 90 points from Jan to April
Tops, 8.5mm for 7 to 8 years seemed about the right number. Would look pretty damned good right now.

Part of the growing pains we have to expect with a rookie GM.
Good news is that Agents love to deal with him so we should never have trouble attracting talent.

 

[kb]

Part of the growing pains we have to expect with a rookie GM.
Good news is that Agents love to deal with him so we should never have trouble attracting talent.

Milstein loves him.

 

[Stephen]

If Dubas would have signed Marner first, who knows what Matthews might ask, could be a lot more...

Matthews was always the lead dog in his own class. The issue from a cap perspective was always going to be Marner pointing at Matthews and Tavares' production and drawing some kind of equivalency.

But I feel like contract averages are a funny thing. Nylander got a shade under $7 million, and Marner makes about $11. But add them up and they both average $9 million and I think most of us are happy with that.

 

[Notsince67]

No, I'm disputing your claims that aren't supported by any evidence. Also, it was 69 points and that did not accurately represent his offensive abilities to that point, which was probably where the disconnect was. The contentious issues that existed in his 3rd year contract negotiation existed to an even greater extent after his 2nd year.

Nobody knows what his actual ask was, or how willing he was to sign a contract. What we do know is that they had negotiations, Dubas had all the motivation to offer a fair and reasonable contract, Dubas had zero reason to lowball, and there was zero mention of lowballing at the time or by any neutral party. What we do know is that Marner had little reason to sign a contract at that time, at least in terms of a reasonable deal based on what he had done to that point, with abnormally hindered production relative to his quality, and increased opportunity coming for somebody with a lot of belief in himself. What we do know is that Marner's agent has historically and in that negotiation used every sketchy trick in the book, and took every measure and all available time to get his clients as much money as possible.

Whatever actually happened, people shouldn't go around complaining about something not happening, when they have none of the necessary information to determine whether it should have happened, or what the consequences of that decision would have been on, for example, other negotiations.

For a person who loves to throw around stats, you sure love to demand actual events occur to fight the causes that suit you. I asked you to put up a number to advance the conversation. That is how gaps are bridged. By your logic one can argue that there is no evidence that Matthews will ever score more than 80 points because he has never done so. Using constraints to assess a limit is done all the time yet you are clearly too emotionally invested in your position to have a rational discussion. So be it. Filibuster away!

 

[Notsince67]

Part of the growing pains we have to expect with a rookie GM.
Good news is that Agents love to deal with him so we should never have trouble attracting talent.

He does seem to be polite. I wonder how long it will take to put an edge on his personality. Agent and rival gm tire kicking will take a toll eventually.

 

[Dekes For Days]

For a person who loves to throw around stats, you sure love to demand actual events occur to fight the causes that suit you.

Stats are actual events. Though I have also laid out the logic that makes your claim implausible, which you have no answer to.

I asked you to put up a number to advance the conversation.

That's not advancing the conversation. That's moving the conversation into something that is irrelevant and that ignores the point of the conversation. Nobody here has any way of knowing the necessary information, so it's time to move on; not just make things up to fill in the massive gaps in whatever way you want.

By your logic one can argue that there is no evidence that Matthews will ever score more than 80 points

But this is not true. There is tons of evidence that Matthews will score more than 80 points in his career.

 

[Da Murf]

I imagine the Toronto media talked about Toronto players being offer sheet targets because they are the local team. I think most understand that all RFA players around the league could sign Offer Sheets including players in Tampa. ONeill can be a little thick sometimes.

I live outside the bubble that is Toronto Media and I got a full dose of what will Toronto do when Matthews and Marner hit UFA and then after Matthews signed all about the Marner Saga as the local team(s) were all out of the playoffs and it was easier radio than burning bridges and talking about the home teams shortcomings. I never heard Point's name mentioned until the very end of June when they were talking about making their own team better and no one had Marner under 10m in mainstreammedia I heard and no one had Point over 8, even when they would say he was better than Marner.

 

[Notsince67]

Stats are actual events. Though I have also laid out the logic that makes your claim implausible, which you have no answer to.

That's not advancing the conversation. That's moving the conversation into something that is irrelevant and that ignores the point of the conversation. Nobody here has any way of knowing the necessary information, so it's time to move on; not just make things up to fill in the massive gaps in whatever way you want.

But this is not true. There is tons of evidence that Matthews will score more than 80 points in his career.

Stats are an analysis of events. Without an analysis there is no inference. I agree there is evidence to support Matthew's scoring more than 80 goals. I was merely pointing out what was evident by your logic. Sure it was inferred because you didnt say it but that is what analysis does sometimes. Begin by assessing logical constraints.
Glad I could help.

 

[Dekes For Days]

Stats are an analysis of events.

Yes it is. Based on facts and things that happened. Not based on random unsubstantiated speculation about things you don't have the necessary information about.

I was merely pointing out what was evident by your logic.

No, you weren't. That had nothing to do with my logic.

 

[WTFMAN99]

He wasn't technically a pending UFA, and I'm not 100% sure if there was drama surrounding it, but Carter was traded just before his 11 year extension kicked in.

Some background drama with that "dry island" thing but not a bad example at all. Kinda similar to MTL/Subban with them trading him before his NMC kicked in.

 

[Cappuccino]

Whatever trade or signing Dubas makes, he needs to take into account that in 2 years (2022) we have the contracts of Rielly, Kapanen, Sandin, Liljegren and Robertson (and possibly Dermott and Mikheyev again) to renew. Luckily the 1.2M Kessel cap hit is gone by then

 

[LeafsOHLRangers98]

Whatever trade or signing Dubas makes, he needs to take into account that in 2 years (2022) we have the contracts of Rielly, Kapanen, Sandin, Liljegren and Robertson (and possibly Dermott and Mikheyev again) to renew. Luckily the 1.2M Kessel cap hit is gone by then

Andersen will likely be gone for a cheaper option. Muzzin's contract is front loaded and easily movable, and at that point we'd probably have to move on from guys like Kapanen anyways.