GDT: Free Agent Frenzy

[Winger98]

No one is going to sign Semin this offseason. Not a single NHL team. He's going back to Russia. I hope then that it finally proves to everyone here who has suggested signing or trading for him for the past several seasons to realize how wrong they were.

Maybe, but if he chases a bigger paycheck in Russia, I can't really hold that against him.

He's got that Russian scoring luster. It's hard to shake. His wrist shot is crazy good.

I get the reasoning, but man, if we're going to gamble I'd prefer sticking to a guy that's slugged it out in the system like Pulkkinen. A guy drafted 111th overall that's worked like a dog to become a top AHL scorer. I like that hunger on the roster.

With Datsyuk likely missing the start of the year, Franzen evolved into a perpetual question mark, and Richards and Zetterberg getting some ugly looks from Father Time across the room, it wouldn't surprise me if we had room for both in the NHL for the majority of the season.

I get the dislike of Semin by any fan base, but you can dispute the raw gifts the guy has and what he can bring to a team. Since the only way I think we bother with him is on a dirt cheap ($1-2m) one year deal, if we grabbed him I don't see a problem. at that price, if he doesn't work, waive him and move on. Also, it might force the trade of Quincey for cap space, which just makes signing Semin all the more appealing to me.

 

[HockeyinHD]

Why are people so hung up on Semin? I get that he has a ton of talent, but so did Nik Zherdev. The guy clearly has problems which is why there's so little interest in him.

The thing that IMO trips people up on player analysis in general is an over-valuation of the mythical compound 'upside'.

Whether it's a prospect, a FA or even just someone down the depth chart in a smaller role, it's incredibly easy to talk yourself into the opinion that 'there's no way New Guy could possibly be worse than Current Guy, and just imagine if he fully explores all of his 'upside'? He could be a revelation!'

It's an easy opinion to get convinced of because there are a lot of very handy mechanisms though which you can ignore all the negatives and tear the ceiling off the top of the positives.

-New Guy hasn't already been unimpressive in Current Guys spot, so they don't have the baggage of failing before our very eyes.

-If they have struggled elsewhere, it's an easy thing to say 'what happened there isn't likely to happen here', and it's also likely all we have to verify the struggles are secondhand info anyway, so we can point to bad linemates, coaching, front office, or whatever as contributing factors and excuse the player for a portion of the blame.

-In the case of prospects, we get to see them performing very well out on the ice which obviously makes us think they would perform similarly elsewhere. After all, 'why wouldn't Prospect X be at least as good as Current Guy? Didn't you see Current Guy get pantsed by Other NHLer Y? What a dope!' In the meantime, Prospect X isn't facing anyone 80% as good as Other NHLer Y most nights while Current Guy gets that level of opponent constantly.

-It actually working out well any percentage of the time means that it can work, and it only takes about 3 seconds to go from thinking something can work to assuming that it would. 'When Other NHL Team A brought up Prospect C the guy was amazing! Why aren't we doing that? We should be doing that! Why hasn't anyone thought of it yet?'

The reality is most prospects are Jakub Kindls. Nobody wants to live in that kind of world. We like to think happy thoughts.

 

[Squirrel in the Hole]

Nope. TFP is generally garbage.

Pav needs good health more than a playmate.

 

[Frk It]

Why are people so hung up on Semin? I get that he has a ton of talent, but so did Nik Zherdev. The guy clearly has problems which is why there's so little interest in him.

Semin realized his talent moreso though, he was elite for about 2 years. And I think he was more talented on top of that.

 

[Actual Thought*]

Wings ranked 3rd in start of free agency power rankings.
http://bleacherreport.com/articles/...eam-stands-after-start-of-free-agency/page/13

 

[Squirrel in the Hole]

The thing that IMO trips people up on player analysis in general is an over-valuation of the mythical compound 'upside'.

Whether it's a prospect, a FA or even just someone down the depth chart in a smaller role, it's incredibly easy to talk yourself into the opinion that 'there's no way New Guy could possibly be worse than Current Guy, and just imagine if he fully explores all of his 'upside'? He could be a revelation!'

It's an easy opinion to get convinced of because there are a lot of very handy mechanisms though which you can ignore all the negatives and tear the ceiling off the top of the positives.

-New Guy hasn't already been unimpressive in Current Guys spot, so they don't have the baggage of failing before our very eyes.

-If they have struggled elsewhere, it's an easy thing to say 'what happened there isn't likely to happen here', and it's also likely all we have to verify the struggles are secondhand info anyway, so we can point to bad linemates, coaching, front office, or whatever as contributing factors and excuse the player for a portion of the blame.

-In the case of prospects, we get to see them performing very well out on the ice which obviously makes us think they would perform similarly elsewhere. After all, 'why wouldn't Prospect X be at least as good as Current Guy? Didn't you see Current Guy get pantsed by Other NHLer Y? What a dope!' In the meantime, Prospect X isn't facing anyone 80% as good as Other NHLer Y most nights while Current Guy gets that level of opponent constantly.

-It actually working out well any percentage of the time means that it can work, and it only takes about 3 seconds to go from thinking something can work to assuming that it would. 'When Other NHL Team A brought up Prospect C the guy was amazing! Why aren't we doing that? We should be doing that! Why hasn't anyone thought of it yet?'

The reality is most prospects are Jakub Kindls. Nobody wants to live in that kind of world. We like to think happy thoughts.

So true. I know I scratched my head wondering why we didn't sign Del Zotto last year, or Ribiero, as perhaps some teams wondered why they didn't sign Cleary in 2006. But, you just don't know, more times it ends up being a bust.

 

[WingedWheel1987]

Wings need high risk/reward signings. Not steady low risk/low reward signings.

It's the only way they might get lucky and go on a run.

 

[Cyborg Yzerberg]

Wings need high risk/reward signings. Not steady low risk/low reward signings.

It's the only way they might get lucky and go on a run.

Semin right now would be a low risk/high reward, for sure

 

[WingedWheel1987]

Semin right now would be a low risk/high reward, for sure

I would be all for it if the Wings didn't waste Weiss' empty roster spot on Richards.

Now there is no room for another forward.

 

[SoupNazi]

I would be all for it if the Wings didn't waste Weiss' empty roster spot on Richards.

Now there is no room for another forward.

How do you know that a year from now, Richards' spot will have been a waste?

 

[Roy S]

There's always room for players if they are improvements over existing players and on cheap 1 year contracts. If they liked and wanted to sign Semin, they could just waive Ferraro and/or Andersson to make room. It'd be easy to make room if the contract is a cheap, 1 year deal.

 

[WingedWheel1987]

How do you know that a year from now, Richards' spot will have been a waste?

If he puts up less than 37 points, it will be a waste. That's a pretty safe bet. I would have rather given Sheahan the opportunity to win 2C duties until Datsyuk came back or let Helm take over if Sheahan didn't work out. Either way, the likelihood that Sheahan puts up a similar amount of points over Richards is very high. Richards is just another 35+ signing to ensure the Wings mediocrity in case Datsyuk is out for a significant period of time.

 

[LarKing]

if his lockout shortened season wasn't relevant, then no red wings player hasn't had relevant season either in last 5 years, save for a few season from datsyuk and zetterberg.

btw, he'd be our best defensive winger. he's very good defensively, that's not the issue with semin. he's probably better defensively than offensively at this point.



let's make avatar bet on that. if he's not signed by the time the season starts, i'll let you choose my avatar until the end of the year. if he is, i can get to choose for you.



it's amazing, if i had to choose the biggest myth or most misguided opinion, it's the notion that semin is bad defensively.

Yep, I just don't take someone's opinion as relevant after they make dumb statements like that.

 

[FlashyG]

Brad Richards is far more valuable to the Wings than Semin would be. The idea of bringing him in is downright laughable.

 

[Cyborg Yzerberg]

Brad Richards is far more valuable to the Wings than Semin would be. The idea of bringing him in is downright laughable.

I mean, considering our winger depth, that is probably true. But in a vacuum, I would rather have 1 year of Semin than 1 year of Richards as it is now. I don't really understand this Semin stigma.(Double entendre intended)

 

[FlashyG]

I mean, considering our winger depth, that is probably true. But in a vacuum, I would rather have 1 year of Semin than 1 year of Richards as it is now. I don't really understand this Semin stigma.(Double entendre intended)

Semin was one of the worst valued players in the entire league last year. He hasn't played in a single place where they have had good things to say about him.

The difference in age between Semin and Richards is less than 4 years.

I don't understand the Richards stigma.

 

[Cyborg Yzerberg]

Semin was one of the worst valued players in the entire league last year. He hasn't played in a single place where they have had good things to say about him.

The difference in age between Semin and Richards is less than 4 years.

I don't understand the Richards stigma.

It has been suggested that Semin and Peters did not get along well. Also, that is not true. At points Capitals and Hurricanes loved the guy and at other points hated the guy. Semin got bought out because his cap hit was high and his term was long, for as you say, a player whose value was bad relative to his contract. But for 1 year <3 mil? That's a great low risk signing for a guy who can be a dynamic first line scoring winger.

Richards is an aging, slowing, declining middle six center. While I think he definitely has a role and a place on our team, his signing did not upset me at all, in a total vacuum, I'd rather one year of Alex Semin, who has a higher probability of making a bigger impact on his team, than one year of Brad Richards. I think Richards being either our second or third line center and manning the second PP point will be great for our team. No qualms at all.

For our team, I'd probably have one year of Richards than Semin, but speaking generally, I'd rather have one year of Semin than Richards. The Semin stigma is far more baffling than people who are upset over signing Richards.

 

[HockeyinHD]

If he puts up less than 37 points, it will be a waste.

I get the impression you don't quite get the whole idea behind the notion of 'quality depth'. Your comment up there is a pretty good example, I think. Here's the explanation behind why depth is good.

When you improve a roster spot, you aren't just improving a roster spot. You are also improving all the roster spots all the way down where, theoretically, you're now able to put better guys who were playing larger roles before. Case in point:

Comparing what Richards does vs. Sheahan, alone, is silly. What you look at is both the relationship between the Richards/Sheahan role and the relationship between Sheahan and who HE is replacing by being (allegedly) moved down the roster. It's also not impossible Sheahan still plays where he did last year and Richards reprises more of Weiss' role than Sheahan's, making a comparison between Richards and Sheahan even less relevant to an on-target assessment of the value of the signing.

In strict terms, our first analysis point will be 2016 Richards/Sheahan vs 2015 Sheahan/Weiss, especially if Richards slots into the 2c/3c role. If that's not the case, then it's most likely going to be a straight comparison not between Richards and Sheahan, but between Richards and Weiss.

I'm just spitballing here, but I'm feeling pretty good about Richards/Sheahan over Sheahan/Weiss or Richards vs. Weiss.

It's a lot like the Green signing. By improving the top 4 you're able to move a weaker player (Quincey, allegedly) out of it and into a position on a lower pairing where they'll face weaker opposition and look some degree of better by comparison.

I would have rather given Sheahan the opportunity to win 2C duties until Datsyuk came back or let Helm take over if Sheahan didn't work out.

As far as I can tell, you pretty consistently advocate for strategies to make the team worse so as to instigate a fire sale style rebuild. Whether that's because you actually want the fire sale rebuild or your ideas just spin out I don't know.

 

[PullHard]

If we didn't have Pulkinnen knocking on the door and Franzen was for sure LTIR'd, giving Semin a 1 year $1M contract with bonuses to incentivize him wouldn't upset me, but with Pulkkinen ready to go and us already having so many Fs who are NHL calibre...

 

[GoAwayDanCleary]

As far as I can tell, you pretty consistently advocate for strategies to make the team worse so as to instigate a fire sale style rebuild. Whether that's because you actually want the fire sale rebuild or your ideas just spin out I don't know.

Pretty sure he's advocating for a retool, not a rebuild.

 

[HisNoodliness]

Semin would be awesome. He doesn't deserve the bad rep he gets IMO. Still this team has too many forwards as is. If we sign Semin we're going to have to make a trade. My personal preference would be trade Quincey+one of our wingers (or Helm) for picks or prospects. Alternatively maybe do Quincey+Smith+Helm+prospect+picks for a defensive upgrade. Regardless Semin would be awesome, but unless we move a F or two he's not really a possibility.

 

[Cyborg Yzerberg]

If we didn't have Pulkinnen knocking on the door and Franzen was for sure LTIR'd, giving Semin a 1 year $1M contract with bonuses to incentivize him wouldn't upset me, but with Pulkkinen ready to go and us already having so many Fs who are NHL calibre...

Yeah, that's how I feel too. Semin just isn't a fit at the moment.

 

[Hammettf2b]

If we didn't have Pulkinnen knocking on the door and Franzen was for sure LTIR'd, giving Semin a 1 year $1M contract with bonuses to incentivize him wouldn't upset me, but with Pulkkinen ready to go and us already having so many Fs who are NHL calibre...

I have seen no indication that Pulks is ready to go in the NHL.

 

[SoupNazi]

New thread is up.