Rumor: Free Agent Frenzy - Day 2

[Bryanbryoil]

You’ll need this:

FFS Nichushkin got roughly $1.5 million more AFTER a career year and an impressive playoffs. Jesse is a good forechecker, the previous season he was good in front of the net as well. Right now he doesn't bring enough to the table to be anywhere near the $4 million mark.

 

[Bryanbryoil]

Not sure why the teams scared of JP's arbitration. I doubt the Arbitrator is sitting there, parsing out analytics on players.

Because there are very real ramifications if he somehow gets a big award. You might be left having to pay to move a contract or having to move out better players to clear cap.

 

[TheGhost]

I always get Bourgault, Savoie and Lavoie mixed up. So is Bourgault the best of the 3?

By a significant margin yes.

 

[soothsayer]

I was responding to the suggestion that JP at $3.5M Yamamoto over $3M and McLoed at $1.5M would fit. If those three are on the team they need to be a lot closer to $6M than $8-8.5M.

I think they may get McLeod at about $1.1-1.2M, Yamamoto at about $2.5M with some luck. What I don't believe is that JP would be willing to sign under $3M. That is an issue.

I don't see him signing that either. And the number he would be awarded in arbitration is difficult to guess at. I suppose we can look at Mangiapane as a comprable in terms of points, but who knows how an arbitrator will consider his advanced numbers, if it all.

 

[McTonyBrar]

FFS Nichushkin got roughly $1.5 million more AFTER a career year and an impressive playoffs. Jesse is a good forechecker, the previous season he was good in front of the net as well. Right now he doesn't bring enough to the table to be anywhere near the $4 million mark.

Watch the goals McDavid scored last season. I think almost in the first 4-5 goals, you see Jesse fanning on a shot. Guy has no coordination or balance

 

[brentashton]

Not sure why the teams scared of JP's arbitration. I doubt the Arbitrator is sitting there, parsing out analytics on players.

No, but the peeps arguing JPs case in arbitration will. That’s what they do.

 

[SnipeShowJB11]

I wish I could see what these guys are apparently seeing

These 2 must be on strong schrooms. Hideous #

 

[Fourier]

I don't see him signing that either. And the number he would be awarded in arbitration is difficult to guess at. I suppose we can look at Mangiapane as a comprable in terms of points, but who knows how an arbitrator will consider his advanced numbers, if it all.

I tried to address JP's arbitration here:

Are you sure?? I'd say $3M is probably the low bar through arbitration with $4M being the high bar.

If you look at the factors that can be presented in arbitration several are favourable to JP for a settlement in the $3-3.5M range. Take a look at recently signed RFA extensions:

2023-24 Active NHL Players - CapFriendly - NHL Salary Caps

2023-24 NHL players who are currently active in the league

www.capfriendly.com

Gurianov $2.9M
Jordan Greenway $3M
Matt Roy $3.15M
Andreas Johnsson $3,4M
Jack Roslovic $4M.
Jake Debrusk $4M

Statistically at the time of signing he sits in the middle of this group. He also has the analytics that rightfully or wrongly help his case.

Now few cases ever get that far. In part because most of the time players want an amicable settlement. (bones posted a nice summary in a previous post.) But that is almost besides the point. For the Oilers the possibility of settlements for JP and Yamamoto is what is hanging over their heads right now. If either files, and I expect both will, that creates cost uncertainty for the team which is a problem. It would force them to seriously look at trading Foegele or Barrie if the plan was to keep both and restrict the type of return because should either arbitration cases come out in favour of the player, the Oilers would be up against it.

 

[alphahelix]

Im a big JP booster but if we cant sign him for ~3M or less prior to arbitration I would be more understanding of the teams position on the matter. (ie theyre trying to dump him for beans)

 

[belair]

Im a big JP booster but if we cant sign him for ~3M or less prior to arbitration I would be more understanding of the teams position on the matter. (ie theyre trying to dump him for beans)

The right move was buying low on Ty Smith IMO. We were a good landing spot for him. He's a WHL product. He's waiver exempt. And he could've made trading Barrie more of a favorable option.

 

[Bryanbryoil]

New thread is up.