The more this drags on, the more resigned I become to the increasingly possible reality that Miller isn't getting dealt. I was 99.8% certain a deal would be made by the end of this weekend. Still could happen, but all the smoke signals suggest otherwise.
For me, the big one was when Allvin was asked if this is the roster we will see in Training Camp and he answered with a convincing "yes." No hedging, no "we like our group but do have some conversations going on, so we will see." Just, yes.
Add that all the media reports are consistently reporting that nothing is happening on the JTM front, JR'S comments, etc. It's looking more and more like short of a homerun package, the hopes are an improved roster + improved work environment + being in a playoff race = Miller being willing to sign an extension that makes sense for him and the organization.
My preference unequivocally is to trade him ASAP. But of course my preference has zero influence in this situation. So I'm starting to pivot to what things look like with JTM still in the fold. As much as we generally agree on the risks of extending JTM, we also generally agree that he is a very good hockey player and a valuable piece to a contender.
With Miller, we do have a deep forward group. Lines will be changing all the time, game to game, period to period, injury to injury. But I'd start something like:
Hoglander-Miller-Garland
Mikheyev-EP-Podkolzin
Kuzmenko-Horvat-Boeser
Pearson-Dick-Lazar
Joshua
Basically a top 9 that is pretty balanced and tough to match up against, with a 4th line that should be able to handle heavy defensive deployment. Dick and Lazar can take faceoffs on their strong side, and while Pearson and Dickinson make for a Benning like 4th line when it comes to AAV, it is what it is.
On defense, we all know the situation. To much $$$ at the top of the pairings. With that said, OEL-Myers was a good shut down pairing, even if overpaid. We've got pieces to put together a solid 3rd pairing, especially if Rathbone takes a step in his development. And Hughes needs a partner, but is a top 15 dman in the league, and still has room to grow. I like the idea of Hughes-OEL, but then it leaves us short of a true shutdown pairing, unless they take on that role. I'd look at something like:
Hughes-Poolman
OEL-Myers
Rathbone-Schenn
Dermott-Burroughs
I dunno, expect Poolman to be better than he was last year. And would be surprised if Schenn's play didn't slip a bit. Also be a bit surprised if Dermott didn't start in the top 6. So some mixing and matching here during camp and preseason for sure, but I don't see it as *terrible* just inefficient use of cap space and a glaring hole beside QH.
If there isn't a market for JT that makes sense (or the stomach to move him on the part of JR/Allvin) next option would be to package a surplus winger with a depth defender and see if we can't find a top 4 dman. This could be (ideally) a fit for beside Hughes, but I'd even take a LS partner for Myers and move OEL to Huggy Bear's flank.
What value does Garland+Dermott have, or Pearson+Poolman, etc. I'd even put Rathbone in the package, but have to be the perfect fit for that.
Long post, more me working through things in my own head. But if Miller stays at PPG, and Petey gets there, and Bo and Boeser both put up 25+ goals, and the Russians all fit, and the PK is respectable, and Demko stays healthy...we are a playoff team. Would that be enough to get JTM, and then EP to sign window friendly extensions? Is it a better gamble than just taking a mid tier package for JTM? Don't know, but looking more and more like we are going to find out imo.
