GDT: Free Agency Nonsense Part 3

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Raspewtin

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May 30, 2013
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You call that a complete package? How can it be a complete package without a legitimate #1? Sure Brass and Stepan are very good 2nd line centers, Hayes is a borderline 2nd line C and Moore is a good 4th line center. My argument was that losing Stepan would be extremely detrimental. Does Brassard-Hayes-Moore-? sound good to you?

There's no team in the NHL where losing a center for absolutely nothing isn't "extremely detrimental".

Oh really? Care to support your differing opinion?

Stepan is one of the strongest two way centers in the NHL.

Brassard is very efficient at ES and is a great PP player.

Hayes is huge, skilled, and if nothing else very responsible defensively. There's at least 50 point potential there.

Dominic Moore is the best 4th line center in the NHL.

It "could be better" but that's very good center depth. I'd argue that it's at least top 10 in the NHL.
 

aufheben

#Norris4Fox
Jan 31, 2013
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Here was Chicago's top-2 C's:

66
37

You don't need to be putting up Crosby/Thornton numbers to be a #1 center. Toews, who has probably been compared to the ****ing Sun at this point, put up 66 points. Brassard controls the game when he's on the ice, barring some regression, he is absolutely a #1 center right now.
 

Bacon Artemi Bravo

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Sep 20, 2007
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There's no team in the NHL where losing a center for absolutely nothing isn't "extremely detrimental".

Well, considering I never said anything about losing a center for absolutely nothing, I don't really know what you are talking about.

My point from the beginning was that Gorton is in an extremely tough situation because it is going to be very difficult to sign him with the contracts of Saad and especially O'Reilly without really being able to trade him because of how the Rangers need him down the middle so badly.
 

Raspewtin

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Well, considering I never said anything about losing a center for absolutely nothing, I don't really know what you are talking about.

My point from the beginning was that Gorton is in an extremely tough situation because it is going to be very difficult to sign him with the contracts of Saad and especially O'Reilly without really being able to trade him because of how the Rangers need him down the middle so badly.

Yeah sorry, I misread.

I think those contracts inflate Stepan's value but they're not at all the same situation. ROR's impact is a little overblown imo, he signed a UFA contract.
 

Bacon Artemi Bravo

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Yeah sorry, I misread.

I think those contracts inflate Stepan's value but they're not at all the same situation. ROR's impact is a little overblown imo, he signed a UFA contract.

I agree but I am sure Stepan's camp is all over that as a negotiating chip. He hasn't been exactly easy to sign in the past either. I think it is going to drag out a bit.
 

RGY

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Jul 18, 2005
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6 years but this really isn't relevant to any discussion.



The problem with these "things that aren't measured" is that, well, you can at least imply they must trend in a certain direction when you look at the results. Like, I have a hard time believing Semin is this defensive trainwreck who just makes no attempt at playing in his own zone, when his ability to stop shots and play in the other zone is so strong. Semin also has very strong shot rates in medium danger areas, so really, he must be doing something right. Keith Yandle for example is a VERY strong shot generator, so there's something(s) he has to do right in the offensive zone. Stats are the results, you watch the games (other than for obvious entertainment purposes) to find why it came to that result.

And, not for nothing, but how much better are your eyes, my eyes, or anyone else's eyes at making truly concrete assessments on particular skills? Like I think Fast is very strong on the boards and in 1 on 1 battles, but for all intents and purposes I can be wrong and maybe only saw a few instances; and I'd welcome evidence otherwise. Video coaches, eye-in-the-sky coaches, hell ANY coach, GMs, they all feverishly study their team's performances to see what can be improved on and what shouldn't be. Their eyes aren't perfect either, but they're putting themselves in a much stronger position to be right than a fan would; and they (obviously) have much more incentive to make smart hockey observations than we do.

And I also have a very hard time believing this whole board has watched Semin in enough games to make the judgments they make on him and his character.
This iss much more reasonable post rasp
 

Thirty One

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Dec 28, 2003
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Which is just another reason why i NEVER take any of those silly "advanced stats" with any merit.

Watching a player is the best way to form an opinion on them, everyone here watches the Rangers all year long which is why I wonder why so many people run to that advance stats to try to prove points.
Compiling statistics gets you places that watching doesn't (and vice versa).

Even if you watch every second of the season and rewatch it later, your brain isn't equipped to input all the little things that happen in games over the season and output something meaningful. We can mentally compile a decent record of the "big plays" (as we see them), but can't be expected to come close on the ocean of little plays.

The vast majority of players are on the ice for between 45-55% of shot attempts. Over the season, the difference between 45% and 55% will make a big impact on goal differential, but it's not easy to tell the difference that will lead to 9 successes out of 20 rather than 11.

And where a player falls in that 45-55% is made up of a bunch of little things--faceoffs, puck battles, break-out passes-- that also fall into a similar range. If you think you can adequately take in, compile and recall all that information, you're mistaken.

Note: I'm not dumb enough to think that you're not the slightest bit interested in entertaining other views on the topic. But someone else may be interested in hearing the response to question.
 

TurgePurge*

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Do I really have to fire up some hurricanes games from last year to settle this?
 

Thirty One

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Dec 28, 2003
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Not for purely advanced stats. It was "the first of its kind" when the Oilers(Leafs?) did it and it was all over the Canadian papers because they thought he would have all sort of incite that other scouts dont have. Then he was fired.
Could you provide more details? This doesn't sound like any case I know of that happened in reality.
 

aufheben

#Norris4Fox
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You're not getting Top-6 production for (hopefully) that bargain from many players right now besides Semin. You might not even from him, but this team has a lot of talent. I'm not sure we even have the space anymore but...

Also we had Marty St. Louis in that spot last year, he wasn't exactly Jere Lehtinen.
 

DanielBrassard

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May 6, 2014
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Compiling statistics gets you places that watching doesn't (and vice versa).

Even if you watch every second of the season and rewatch it later, your brain isn't equipped to input all the little things that happen in games over the season and output something meaningful. We can mentally compile a decent record of the "big plays" (as we see them), but can't be expected to come close on the ocean of little plays.

The vast majority of players are on the ice for between 45-55% of shot attempts. Over the season, the difference between 45% and 55% will make a big impact on goal differential, but it's not easy to tell the difference that will lead to 9 successes out of 20 rather than 11.

And where a player falls in that 45-55% is made up of a bunch of little things--faceoffs, puck battles, break-out passes-- that also fall into a similar range. If you think you can adequately take in, compile and recall all that information, you're mistaken.

Note: I'm not dumb enough to think that you're not the slightest bit interested in entertaining other views on the topic. But someone else may be interested in hearing the response to question.

And this post should be stickied.
 

TurgePurge*

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Just get Joffrey Lupul. Toronto is going full rebuild. Loops has no value on the market. His cap # is onerous so gotta hook us up by taking Glass and whatever else is necessary. Guy is a beautician. Leads the NHL in pregame warmup winks.
 

*Bob Richards*

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Just get Joffrey Lupul. Toronto is going full rebuild. Loops has no value on the market. His cap # is onerous so gotta hook us up by taking Glass and whatever else is necessary. Guy is a beautician. Leads the NHL in pregame warmup winks.

He also plays about 15 games a year.
 
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