Free Agency and Trades Thread: Post deadline wasteland

[BertCorbeau]

I might sign Jumbo or Kovy but not both. Joe would be plan B for me as Tavares is plan A. JT fast tracks the rebuild like Matthews did. With Tavares replacing TyBo, Leafs' need on LW (JVR replacement) and #4C is diminished. You need another Hyman type player to get the puck to JT and Mitch or Kadri and Kappy and you can go with Aalto/Goat at #4C and upgrade at the TDL if needed. Maroon might be a target if he can be had at $3M but I doubt it (Tavares 7x10m + Maroon 3x3m > TyBo 3x4m + JVR 6x6m).

Agreed. TBH I've flipped a little on the Tavares thing - I wasn't as keen on signing him for cap implications but now I'd be more inclined to make a stronger push, if it's not a ridiculous overpayment (like over $11 mill/year). It comes with the understanding though that it will take away from cap space that can be allocated to the blue line and will also mean that the Leafs have to be prudent with other contracts otherwise they'll be in a bind.

 

[realgoodleafs]

Latest Leafs report podcast tidbit: Mirtle says the Leafs offer for mcdonagh was “well below” other teams. No Kapanen, Dermott or Liljegren, just “b level” prospects.

Honestly makes me happy they’re being a bit conservative in thebtrade market - harder to make blunders that way.

No other team offered A level prospects either.

 

[Liminality]

No other team offered A level prospects either.

Brett Howden seems more like an A prospect than a B prospect from what I've read about him.

 

[WTFMAN99]

Agreed. TBH I've flipped a little on the Tavares thing - I wasn't as keen on signing him for cap implications but now I'd be more inclined to make a stronger push, if it's not a ridiculous overpayment (like over $11 mill/year). It comes with the understanding though that it will take away from cap space that can be allocated to the blue line and will also mean that the Leafs have to be prudent with other contracts otherwise they'll be in a bind.

Play on cap friendly, it's easy to do, just need to get a $4-5.5M top 4 defenseman with a right handed shot, and ideally get the hell away from that Martin contract.

Tavares-Stastny-Thornton-Flip would be my order of preference for centres.

Tavares = 10M x7 years
Stastny 5M x2 years (would hate to do 3 years), would even go 5.5M if I had to
Thornton - 5.5M x 1 year
Flip 2.25M x1 year

Tried my best.

If we move Martin, we can fit in Nash (or Kovalchuk but don't think he fits uas well) for 1 year at 5-6M on a 1 year contract.

but who cares.
Like. honestly this whole Right Hand/Left hand thing drives me nuts like nothing else.

the question should be:
Is he a good defensemen
will he help our team
will he make our team better


if it's "yes" to all, then what hand he shoots with shouldn't/doesn't matter.

again to me, i'm not upset that we didn't overpay, it ticks me off that they wasted time with this low ball offer, when they could have sussed out other avenues to get defensive help with the pieces they were willing to trade for.

What if the answer is he won't really help? Some guys can't play their off side. Rielly, Gardiner and McDonagh are all mediocre on the right side while being damned good top pairing-top 4 defenseman on the left side. Dermott has gone over to the right side this year and done alright but looks better on the left IMO. Only reason that he might stastistically look better on the right side is because when he plays on the left side it's usually Polak on the right. Eye test at play there.

 

[Trapper]

I mean who didn't see that coming?

Players like Lucic, Ladd, Nash, JVR, Okposo, Pacioretty, on and on are not players you sign for 7-8 years when they reach the 29 year old stage. It's contract/asset suicide.
You use them on their good deals until that is up and move them. You move them and get good picks/prospects to keep the pipeline flowing around your core. When you fail to do that, it will catch up with you in the future. People may not think so today, but it will. Now you may have to trade a Kapanen/high pick to address a problem.
We've traded consecutive year 2nd round picks and still haven't addressed the 4C issue. And on top of that we may also be in for a 3C issue to go along with it. Plus the D, plus the lack of organization C depth etc. I don't see this years asset management as a good thing. Quite the opposite actually.

 

[Mugzy97]

but who cares.
Like. honestly this whole Right Hand/Left hand thing drives me nuts like nothing else.

the question should be:
Is he a good defensemen
will he help our team
will he make our team better


if it's "yes" to all, then what hand he shoots with shouldn't/doesn't matter.

again to me, i'm not upset that we didn't overpay, it ticks me off that they wasted time with this low ball offer, when they could have sussed out other avenues to get defensive help with the pieces they were willing to trade for.

I think this management is not what we are used to in the sense that they won't make a move for a D just because they need a D. They are patient enough to wait for the right D that fits and makes sense. If that D isn't available, it's not really worth it to go chase another D that doesn't really fit the build. I feel like McD is a good Dman but he just wasn't the right fit, and the right fit guy wasn't available at this time so we'll just have to wait it out.

 

[Daisy Jane]

I think this management is not what we are used to in the sense that they won't make a move for a D just because they need a D. They are patient enough to wait for the right D that fits and makes sense. If that D isn't available, it's not really worth it to go chase another D that doesn't really fit the build. I feel like McD is a good Dman but he just wasn't the right fit, and the right fit guy wasn't available at this time so we'll just have to wait it out.

but how did they know that if they were wasting time with McD?
that's the little gripe.

like again, it's not so much "we didn't do anything grumble grumble" or
"we didn't get McD,, grumble grumble"

it's more of.
we wasted time with McD with a softball answered when they could have done other things.

 

[IBeL34f]

but how did they know that if they were wasting time with McD?
that's the little gripe.

like again, it's not so much "we didn't do anything grumble grumble" or
"we didn't get McD,, grumble grumble"

it's more of.
we wasted time with McD with a softball answered when they could have done other things.

What makes you think they weren't exploring other avenues, Daisy? They absolutely can, and absolutely should, have multiple lines in the water.

 

[Daisy Jane]

What makes you think they weren't exploring other avenues, Daisy? They absolutely can, and absolutely should, have multiple lines in the water.

because we didn't get anyone else

 

[Mugzy97]

but how did they know that if they were wasting time with McD?
that's the little gripe.

like again, it's not so much "we didn't do anything grumble grumble" or
"we didn't get McD,, grumble grumble"

it's more of.
we wasted time with McD with a softball answered when they could have done other things.

Every team would identify their targets and then put a value on that target. In many cases I'm sure the other team values their piece much higher than we do and that's when management would have to decide if the piece is worth raising their offer or simply backing out. Many GM's make bad trades by raising their offer far higher than they should have. I'm confident our guys won't do that now.

because we didn't get anyone else

Maybe they explored the league and just didn't see the right fit. Actually making a trade doesn't mean they didn't try, they just didn't see a piece worth giving up assets for at this time.

 

[Daisy Jane]

Every team would identify their targets and then put a value on that target. In many cases I'm sure the other team values their piece much higher than we do and that's when management would have to decide if the piece is worth raising their offer or simply backing out. Many GM's make bad trades by raising their offer far higher than they should have. I'm confident our guys won't do that now.



Maybe they explored the league and just didn't see the right fit. Actually making a trade doesn't mean they didn't try, they just didn't see a piece worth giving up assets for at this time.

lol naw, to the 2nd point it was more tongue in cheek.

however, i do think my first point still stands. and i do want to stress - this isn't a "waaa, why didn't we overpay." it's more of. "why did you soft-offer." to go back to my point of the could have gone hard over someone else (with that package). i think - and i may not be articulating myself properly -

i would have rather them go after say.. Leddy (first name came to mind) with a "hard" package of prospects whatever (and been told no), vs. going after McD with a "soft package" knowing that the Rangers were in this ""we have the technology we can rebuild him" mentality.

 

[Mugzy97]

lol naw, to the 2nd point it was more tongue in cheek.

however, i do think my first point still stands. and i do want to stress - this isn't a "waaa, why didn't we overpay." it's more of. "why did you soft-offer." to go back to my point of the could have gone hard over someone else (with that package). i think - and i may not be articulating myself properly -

i would have rather them go after say.. Leddy (first name came to mind) with a "hard" package of prospects whatever (and been told no), vs. going after McD with a "soft package" knowing that the Rangers were in this ""we have the technology we can rebuild him" mentality.

Maybe Lou stuck a BS offer out there to see what the Rangers said about other teams offers? Maybe hearing NYR GM say other teams are "significantly higher" was enough to make him back out but if the NYR GM said "you need to add a bit" Lou would have known he was in the ballpark with lesser pieces? Just guessing.

 

[ToneDog]

Play on cap friendly, it's easy to do, just need to get a $4-5.5M top 4 defenseman with a right handed shot, and ideally get the hell away from that Martin contract.

Tavares-Stastny-Thornton-Flip would be my order of preference for centres.

Tavares = 10M x7 years
Stastny 5M x2 years (would hate to do 3 years), would even go 5.5M if I had to
Thornton - 5.5M x 1 year
Flip 2.25M x1 year

Tried my best.

If we move Martin, we can fit in Nash (or Kovalchuk but don't think he fits uas well) for 1 year at 5-6M on a 1 year contract.

Completely in agreement with your strategy and numbers. IMO Tavares helps close the gap between the Leafs and the top teams. If the kids continue to grow, we can leap by the teams that are not able to keep up.

 

[Fogelhund]

lol naw, to the 2nd point it was more tongue in cheek.

however, i do think my first point still stands. and i do want to stress - this isn't a "waaa, why didn't we overpay." it's more of. "why did you soft-offer." to go back to my point of the could have gone hard over someone else (with that package). i think - and i may not be articulating myself properly -

i would have rather them go after say.. Leddy (first name came to mind) with a "hard" package of prospects whatever (and been told no), vs. going after McD with a "soft package" knowing that the Rangers were in this ""we have the technology we can rebuild him" mentality.

These aren't mutually exclusive events. There is nothing saying that Lou and team, didn't look at other options, or offer better packages for someone else. Just because they did a "soft" package offer for McD, doesn't mean they weren't calling other GM's, about other options... I mean, it takes 5 or 10 minutes to make one call... how much time does that leave over a week or so, to make other calls?

 

[BlueForever75]

Completely in agreement with your strategy and numbers. IMO Tavares helps close the gap between the Leafs and the top teams. If the kids continue to grow, we can leap by the teams that are not able to keep up.

I still believe the best route to go is acquiring a center that is paid anywhere between 4.5-6 million per season and then acquiring a dman in the 4-5 million a season range. I would rather spend our cap this way then sign a Tavares for 10+ million a season.

My preference is to try and acquire RNH from Edmonton and a dman like Trouba, Hljammsson (sp), Tanev, or Klefbom via trade. And then sign a free agent dman for around 2.5-4 million in free agency like Da Haan, Schenn, or others that are not named Carlson, or Green. There will be dmen available in this price range.

I say trade with Edmonton in a blockbuster:

To Edmonton

Gardiner
Brown
Carrick
Leivo
1st Round Pick '18

To Toronto

RNH (20% retained in salary)
Klefbom

 

[SeaOfBlue]

I still believe the best route to go is acquiring a center that is paid anywhere between 4.5-6 million per season and then acquiring a dman in the 4-5 million a season range. I would rather spend our cap this way then sign a Tavares for 10+ million a season.

My preference is to try and acquire RNH from Edmonton and a dman like Trouba, Hljammsson (sp), Tanev, or Klefbom via trade. And then sign a free agent dman for around 2.5-4 million in free agency like Da Haan, Schenn, or others that are not named Carlson, or Green. There will be dmen available in this price range.

I say trade with Edmonton in a blockbuster:

To Edmonton

Gardiner
Brown
Carrick
Leivo
1st Round Pick '18

To Toronto

RNH (20% retained in salary)
Klefbom

RNH < Brown, Carrick, Leivo, 1st
Klefbom < Gardiner

Why do we do this deal? We do not need a worse, soft as butter version of Kadri. And we certainly do not need to pay that much for a struggling defenseman who had one good year to cash in on a long term deal.

Target Klefbom with Gardiner, let MTL and EDM find a way to screw each other in the same deal or something. Keep it simple, and we will do fine.

 

[Barilko14]

Play on cap friendly, it's easy to do, just need to get a $4-5.5M top 4 defenseman with a right handed shot, and ideally get the hell away from that Martin contract.

Tavares-Stastny-Thornton-Flip would be my order of preference for centres.

Tavares = 10M x7 years
Stastny 5M x2 years (would hate to do 3 years), would even go 5.5M if I had to
Thornton - 5.5M x 1 year
Flip 2.25M x1 year

Tried my best.

If we move Martin, we can fit in Nash (or Kovalchuk but don't think he fits uas well) for 1 year at 5-6M on a 1 year contract.



What if the answer is he won't really help? Some guys can't play their off side. Rielly, Gardiner and McDonagh are all mediocre on the right side while being damned good top pairing-top 4 defenseman on the left side. Dermott has gone over to the right side this year and done alright but looks better on the left IMO. Only reason that he might stastistically look better on the right side is because when he plays on the left side it's usually Polak on the right. Eye test at play there.

Do you factor the Horton contract into the cap next year? If not, do you carry forward the ~$4m bonuses onto the 19/20 cap when Matthews and Marner need new deals?

 

[WTFMAN99]

Do you factor the Horton contract into the cap next year? If not, do you carry forward the ~$4m bonuses onto the 19/20 cap when Matthews and Marner need new deals?

There is still room. I thought I went pretty high on Brodziak, he's currently making 950k. I had moved Brown, Carrick and another pick for Pysyk and a pick (think it was we gave a 4th they give us a 3rd). Leivo might not be here, you could realistically replace him with a cheaper player at league minimum. I went conservative with an 80M and further to that, what do the bonuses project to be at this point? Matthews has missed a bunch of time this year which may prevent him from winning. I did put Horton on LTR (or we can use off-season LTR)

 

[Barilko14]

There is still room. I thought I went pretty high on Brodziak, he's currently making 950k. I had moved Brown, Carrick and another pick for Pysyk and a pick (think it was we gave a 4th they give us a 3rd). Leivo might not be here, you could realistically replace him with a cheaper player at league minimum. I went conservative with an 80M and further to that, what do the bonuses project to be at this point? Matthews has missed a bunch of time this year which may prevent him from winning. I did put Horton on LTR (or we can use off-season LTR)

View attachment 103695

My point was more that 19/20 is the problem. Next year we have plenty of space, but what happens in 19/20 when M&M need their extensions and we have a $4 or $5M roster bonus on top of that?? This is why Tavares, IMO is a pipedream.

 

[WTFMAN99]

My point was more that 19/20 is the problem. Next year we have plenty of space, but what happens in 19/20 when M&M need their extensions and we have a $4 or $5M roster bonus on top of that?? This is why Tavares, IMO is a pipedream.

Gardiner (4.05M)
Hainsey (3M)
Nash (5.5M)
Brodziak expire (1.3M)
Leivo (925k) if it's still there, or replaced by an expiring league minimum contract.

Marleau could be moved (then it gets super simple)

I was also really generous with Nylander's raise at 6.75M for an 8 year term, imo more likely 6M x7 years of 6.5M x8 years (Ehlers comparable) and I was really conservative on the cap ceiling

Cap raise of 2M to 82M by then is a slam dunk. All of those expiring contracts easily cover the raises and I had quite a bit of cap space already. Tavares is a guy you deal with the cap ramifications with later on, if it means you have to get creative in moving Marleau, so be it.

 

[Barilko14]

Gardiner (4.05M)
Hainsey (3M)
Nash (5.5M)
Brodziak expire (1.3M)
Leivo (925k) if it's still there, or replaced by an expiring league minimum contract.

Marleau could be moved (then it gets super simple)

I was also really generous with Nylander's raise at 6.75M for an 8 year term, imo more likely 6M x7 years of 6.5M x8 years (Ehlers comparable) and I was really conservative on the cap ceiling

Cap raise of 2M to 82M by then is a slam dunk. All of those expiring contracts easily cover the raises and I had quite a bit of cap space already. Tavares is a guy you deal with the cap ramifications with later on, if it means you have to get creative in moving Marleau, so be it.

It's fine too list expiring contracts, but that doesn't really solve the issue.

Are you replacing Gardiner and Hainsey with 2 Elcs? In our prime contending window?

Same goes for Nash and per your example Marleau.

Does not really move the needle in the right direction.

I'm on my phone, so I'm not going to bother running capfriendly, but I'll look at it in the morning.

 

[WTFMAN99]

It's fine too list expiring contracts, but that doesn't really solve the issue.

Are you replacing Gardiner and Hainsey with 2 Elcs? In our prime contending window?

Same goes for Nash and per your example Marleau.

Does not really move the needle in the right direction.

I'm on my phone, so I'm not going to bother running capfriendly, but I'll look at it in the morning.

Dermott should be able to handle 2nd pairing LHD responsibilities. Borgman won't be expensive in the 3rd pairing, probably 900k-1.25M. RHD would consist of Pysyk, Zaitsev and Liljegren by then.

Rielly-Pysyk
Dermott-Zaitsev
Borgman-Liljegren
Cheap #7 - if we have more cap space to play with, spend more here

Wingers won't be much of an issue, Matthews-Tavares-Kadri-New 4C, our wingers will still feature Kapanen, Nylander, Marner, Hyman, Johnsson and likely Grundstrom, maybe Korshkov by then too.

Like I said, you make Tavares work if you get the chance, Only Pittsburgh could match us 1-3 in the East at that point.

 

[WTFMAN99]

Also going to go to a loony toons type of thought process here because it goes against my own thoughts. When you look at players like Stamkos and Johansen, #1Cs on good teams, do you think we could go to Matthews and say "can you take 8 years at $8-9M per?"

No guarantee Matthews puts up insane numbers like Stamkos has. Johansen has cracked 60 pts a few times and 70 once.

I still think he's pulling 10-11M but any chance of an argument there and that Buffalo just stupidly overpaid Eichel?

 

[Barilko14]

Also going to go to a loony toons type of thought process here because it goes against my own thoughts. When you look at players like Stamkos and Johansen, #1Cs on good teams, do you think we could go to Matthews and say "can you take 8 years at $8-9M per?"

No guarantee Matthews puts up insane numbers like Stamkos has. Johansen has cracked 60 pts a few times and 70 once.

I still think he's pulling 10-11M but any chance of an argument there and that Buffalo just stupidly overpaid Eichel?

We can all hope for that, and i forget where I heard it the other day, but apparently Lou was going to try that angle of all of the big 3 taking team friendly deals.

I just don't see the McDavid or Eichel deals as unreasonable.

That player poll the other day is a pretty good indication of how Matthews is viewed around the league, within a year or two, there is a very good chance we have the 2nd best player in the league on our team.

So with that being the case I don't think he's being unreasonable asking for $11m+. $9m would would probably barely have him in the top 10 highest paid within a year or two, so where would he be 7 years from now? Top 30, top 40? $9m would be a major steal.

Again though, I would be thrilled if that were the case, and we should add a Lou statue if he could get the big 3 locked up for anything less than $22m.

 

[WTFMAN99]

We can all hope for that, and i forget where I heard it the other day, but apparently Lou was going to try that angle of all of the big 3 taking team friendly deals.

I just don't see the McDavid or Eichel deals as unreasonable.

That player poll the other day is a pretty good indication of how Matthews is viewed around the league, within a year or two, there is a very good chance we have the 2nd best player in the league on our team.

So with that being the case I don't think he's being unreasonable asking for $11m+. $9m would would probably barely have him in the top 10 highest paid within a year or two, so where would he be 7 years from now? Top 30, top 40? $9m would be a major steal.

Again though, I would be thrilled if that were the case, and we should add a Lou statue if he could get the big 3 locked up for anything less than $22m.

Yeah, Matthews if healthy and on a more successful PP unit probably puts up 80 pts this year. I won't be upset if he makes 10-11M per. After that I cringe but accept it, it makes things tighter though. I don't think he has a strong claim to anything over 11M though.

If the big 3 all took team friendly deals though, they'll be even beloved in the city, we can be more competitive etc etc. I think they want to win. All 3 of them. Marner grew up a Leafs fan, Matthews knows he's the franchise guy and he's going to get his money via endorsements. Nylander? Hard to say but he seems to be more of a team player then everyone gives him credit for.