Free Agency and Trade Thread - Post deadline wasteland

[SeaOfBlue]

I am not going to be totally shocked to see one of Johnsson or Kapanen dealt after this year. Unless they do take really nice deals. (i.e. 3 years between 2.5 and 3 for both).

As alluded to above, between the prospects on the Marlies, plus guys like Petan, Aaltonen, Korshkov and future UFA pickups, we have guys who can fill holes left by our tertiary forwards.

 

[MyBudJT]

Kapanen is not getting 5 mill on a bridge deal. That's Kucherov money on a bridge. That is what Marner is getting on a bridge deal. Kapanen gets in the 2's or low 3's if he's on a bridge. Johnsson is not getting much more than 2.5 mill on a bridge deal either.

That is unless Dubas really just does not know how to negotiate a contract. If they have trouble with those two, he just has to trade them for defensive help. I'd rather take my chances with the long list of prospects who can fill a top 12 role than giving them way more than they are worth.

Maybe Kapanen doesn't want a bridge deal... maybe he wants more security...

Also, I don't think Marner is going to sign a bridge deal either.

Kapanen is not getting 5M+ cap hit and Johnsson is nowhere near a 3M+ cap hit player. That's absurd.

Kapanen will be looking at anywhere between 2.5M and 3.5M depending on the term. Johnsson is firmly in that 2M to 3M depending on term. They both have clear comparables and if they are looking for WAY over what they should make, they will be traded.

I don't think its as absurd as your suggesting.

Kapanen is on pace for finishing the season with 25G and 53 points. This with marginal PP time, and significant PK time.
Nylander finished last season with 20G and 61P. This with good PP time, and no PK ability.

If I am Kapanen, I look at what Nylander just got, and how they compare this season, and say... I'm easily worth 6x5 mil... probably more. And you know what, he's not wrong.


Johnsson is in a similar boat. He was not given nearly the same amount of opportunity Nylander was, but his production isn't that far behind. He looks at Nylander and says "I'm at the very least worth half of what Nylander just got". And you know what, he's not wrong.

 

[deletethis]

You can of course create different mechanisms to mitigate these. I would love to see more flexibility under the cap.

The next NHL CBA should add unlimited "cap free" buyouts but these buyouts should cost the full value of the remaining contract. The old buyout option can stay as an alternative for the cash-wise NHL franchises. This would be great for both the players and more than half of the league. The players would get full value of their contracts AND an opportunity to sign a new deal elsewhere. This actually raises the amount of income the players collectively would make over the course of a CBA creating new cap space at the discretion of the individual NHL franchises. It would also unlock mid-level buried players from the shackles of overpaid purgatory (Sam Gagner for example).

I'm sure someone is going to call this "unfair" because this option is viable only for the wealthier franchises. Well, is it fair that Texas, Nevada and Florida have NO state income taxes (soon to be Washington state and Tennessee (2021) as well)? Is it fair that New York offers a higher quality of city life than almost every other NHL city? Is it fair that it's warm all year round in Arizona, California and Florida? Is it fair that some cities/states give huge tax breaks to their pro sports franchises? etc. etc.

 

[SprDaVE]

Maybe Kapanen doesn't want a bridge deal... maybe he wants more security...

Also, I don't think Marner is going to sign a bridge deal either.




I don't think its as absurd as your suggesting.

Kapanen is on pace for finishing the season with 25G and 53 points. This with marginal PP time, and significant PK time.
Nylander finished last season with 20G and 61P. This with good PP time, and no PK ability.

If I am Kapanen, I look at what Nylander just got, and how they compare this season, and say... I'm easily worth 6x5 mil... probably more. And you know what, he's not wrong.


Johnsson is in a similar boat. He was not given nearly the same amount of opportunity Nylander was, but his production isn't that far behind. He looks at Nylander and says "I'm at the very least worth half of what Nylander just got". And you know what, he's not wrong.

Nylander had multiple seasons of 60+ points. Not just one. Kapanen is having 1 strong season and he can't even get close to what Nylander did 2 seasons ago. You don't pay a player based on one season.

Kapanen can look at Nylander all he wants but he's well under what Nylander accomplished at the same age. That's a key factor into this. It doesn't matter that he didn't get top PP minutes or whatever else. Production and age matters.

Kapanen is having a terrific breakout season but he will 100% be bridged. If he has no interest in a bridge and wants to get paid long-term, he is getting traded. It's that simple.

If Kapanen is smart, he takes the bridge and proves his worth over multiple seasons. He will be able to command a lot more long-term this way.

 

[SeaOfBlue]

Maybe Kapanen doesn't want a bridge deal... maybe he wants more security...

Also, I don't think Marner is going to sign a bridge deal either.

I don't think Marner wants a bridge either, unless you count a 5 year deal as a bridge.

Kapanen is almost certainly going to have to take one if he wants to stay a Leaf. Otherwise, I would have absolutely not issue if he's willing to take an 3 mill AAV long term, if he wants that security... Just don't expect much extra on the AAV.

They will probably for the next few weeks and then after the playoffs. If both say they want too much money (either on a bridge or because they refuse one), then he's going (regardless of what he wants or promises) to have to trade at least one of them. It's not like the Leafs are trying to be cheap or unfair. They are not the ones who created the cap rules. They just have to follow them. If everyone thinks they can have their money and play for the Leafs, then they are mistaken. Especially if you are not a core player.

 

[MyBudJT]

Nylander had multiple seasons of 60+ points. Not just one. Kapanen is having 1 strong season and he can't even get close to what Nylander did 2 seasons ago. You don't pay a player based on one season.

Kapanen can look at Nylander all he wants but he's well under what Nylander accomplished at the same age. That's a key factor into this. It doesn't matter that he didn't get top PP minutes or whatever else.

Kapanen is having a terrific breakout season but he will 100% be bridged. If he has no interest in a bridge and wants to get paid, he is getting traded. It's that simple.

Kapanen wasn't given the same opportunity Nylander was given. Nylander was still very unproven when he signed his extension. All he did was score two 60 point seasons (showing little progression between seasons), while riding on Matthews' coattails.

Kapanen is on pace to score more goals than Nylander ever has and possibly ever will. Kapanen has intangibles that Nylander doesn't. Kapanen has also been a better player for us this season than Nylander has. My point still stands.

Kapanen is easily 75% the player that Nylander is (probably closer)... and will likely get compensated as such in the offseason. Which is why I think he will get traded.

 

[SprDaVE]

Kapanen wasn't given the same opportunity Nylander was given. Nylander was still very unproven when he signed his extension. All he did was score two 60 point seasons (showing little progression between seasons), while riding on Matthews' coattails.

Kapanen is on pace to score more goals than Nylander ever has and possibly ever will. Kapanen has intangibles that Nylander doesn't. Kapanen has also been a better player for us this season than Nylander has. My point still stands.

Kapanen is easily 75% the player that Nylander is (probably closer)... and will likely get compensated as such in the offseason. Which is why I think he will get traded.

I mean, we can play the "what if" game but Kapanen didn't exactly play up to par in his first few stints with the Leafs. He didn't earn his spot out right.

A contract negotiation isn't about "what if" it's about "this is what I've done" and compared to X and Y, this is what I'm worth.

He's not getting 5M+ long-term from us. Maybe a desperate team like the Oilers would though.

I love Kapanen but his comparables are clear as day. If you think he should be making more because of intangibles or future circumstances, then there's not much I can say.

 

[BlueForever75]

Yeah, I hate to say it, but I think the writing is on the wall for both Kappanen and Johnsson. Acquiring Petan, and promoting Moore are a couple of signs of whats to come.

But this isn't a bad thing... they won't leave for nothing, we will get significant assets in return... possibly a couple of 1st round picks +.

Dubas et al. will scouer the European, College and Junior free agent markets. We could sign cheap depth in the offseason. These are assets we'd recieve for free.

Acquiring Petan and promoting Moore has nothing to do with Kapanen and Johnsson. Sorry I do not agree.

By replacing Lindholm with Moore on the 4th line you have basically saved around 200K for a full season. He's a better player for the team.

By trading Brown in what ever deal in off season you free up the 2.1 owed to him. That money along with 200K will be put to re-signing Johnsson to in an around same number.

This leaves you with Kapanen to resign and Marner. Remember that Kapanen has a cap hit of close to 1 million this season being a 1st round pick. Depending on what Marner is signed for the savings on that contract with the 13-15 million in cap space will be put to resigning Kapanen.

Petan pretty much replaces Brown in lineup at half the price.

What people do not get is this season Horton's contract has been part of our salary cap. We did not use his LTIR cap hit that would have allowed us to go over the cap by 5 million this season. Reason for this was to account for Matthews, and Marner bonuses this season so we didn't carry them into next season.

But next season, we can easily put Horton on LTIR using his cap hit to improve the team. Hence the reason for 13-15 million in cap space. If Marner signs for 9-9,5 million annually. That leaves 3-5 million available to resign Kapanen.

So in my eyes the deal for Petan and the promotion of Moore is nothing more then preparing us for keeping everyone together with only trading 1 player and that is Brown. Who in the end will be replaced by Petan in our lineup. Everyone else stays put.

If Johnsson or Kapanen are not with the Leafs, it will be more so because they are used to acquire other needs (D), But not because we cannot fit them under the cap.

This is all without trading a Zaitsev which I fully expect as well which would add another 4.5 million of cap space.

 

[MyBudJT]

I mean, we can play the "what if" game but Kapanen didn't exactly play up to par in his first few stints with the Leafs. He didn't earn his spot out right.

A contract negotiation isn't about "what if" it's about "this is what I've done". Period.

He's not getting 5M+ long-term from us.

Nylander didn't sign at a 7 mil AAV for what he's done. Period.

AND Kapanen will compare his ability to Nylander, who just cashed in at 7 mil long term. He looks at Nylander, and what he's done this season (and even last), and he says "I'm just as important as Nylander". He's not even all that wrong.

I'm not saying he'll get it from us. Where did I suggest that?

I'm saying 5M+ is going to be what he wants, and likely ultimately gets.

 

[SprDaVE]

Nylander didn't sign at a 7 mil AAV for what he's done. Period.

AND Kapanen will compare his ability to Nylander, who just cashed in at 7 mil long term. He looks at Nylander, and what he's done this season (and even last), and he says "I'm just as important as Nylander". He's not even all that wrong.

I'm not saying he'll get it from us. Where did I suggest that?

I'm saying 5M+ is going to be what he wants, and likely ultimately gets.

He 100% has and this has been well documented. His cap hit percentage was right next to Ehlers, Pastrnak and Larkin. He produced like them and got paid like them. I'm not going over this again

Kapanen will be paid based on his comparables. Nylander produced 120+ points by the time his ELC was up. Kapanen will have produced ~60.

You're assuming that's what he'll want. I'm sure Kapanen wants 20M per year but that doesn't mean it makes any sense. Hyman could say that he's just as important as Marner, so does that mean he should make 7M?

Show me Kapanen comparables around the league and let me know how many are getting paid 5M+ over 5-6 years (or similar cap hit percentage) after one strong ~25 goal and ~50 point season.

 

[Fogelhund]

I still believe it's Nylander who gets traded, July 2nd, in a package to Carolina.

 

[MyBudJT]

Acquiring Petan and promoting Moore has nothing to do with Kapanen and Johnsson. Sorry I do not agree.

By replacing Lindholm with Moore on the 4th line you have basically saved around 200K for a full season. He's a better player for the team.

By trading Brown in what ever deal in off season you free up the 2.1 owed to him. That money along with 200K will be put to re-signing Johnsson to in an around same number.

This leaves you with Kapanen to resign and Marner. Remember that Kapanen has a cap hit of close to 1 million this season being a 1st round pick. Depending on what Marner is signed for the savings on that contract with the 13-15 million in cap space will be put to resigning Kapanen.

Petan pretty much replaces Brown in lineup at half the price.

What people do not get is this season Horton's contract has been part of our salary cap. We did not use his LTIR cap hit that would have allowed us to go over the cap by 5 million this season. Reason for this was to account for Matthews, and Marner bonuses this season so we didn't carry them into next season.

But next season, we can easily put Horton on LTIR using his cap hit to improve the team. Hence the reason for 13-15 million in cap space. If Marner signs for 9-9,5 million annually. That leaves 3-5 million available to resign Kapanen.

So in my eyes the deal for Petan and the promotion of Moore is nothing more then preparing us for keeping everyone together with only trading 1 player and that is Brown. Who in the end will be replaced by Petan in our lineup. Everyone else stays put.

If Johnsson or Kapanen are not with the Leafs, it will be more so because they are used to acquire other needs (D), But not because we cannot fit them under the cap.

This is all without trading a Zaitsev which I fully expect as well which would add another 4.5 million of cap space.

I don't even know how to respond to this... there is a lot of assumptions and inaccuracies in your post, and some of them are quite unrealistic, IMO. Also, I don't know if you get what I was trying to suggest.

There is no way that trading Brown alone will give us the cap space needed to retain the rest of the players on our roster.

All I was suggesting was that Dubas is likely preparring for departures of two or three forwards on our roster... He could have visions of playing Petan and Moore full-time next season. We will also likely have other guys battling out for jobs, whether they're acquired free agents, or Bracco, Or Korshkov, or Envall, or Marchment or another Marlie.


Acquiring Petan improves our young forward depth (which will be needed for ne, and giving Moore an opportunity this year

 

[WTFMAN99]

Marleau is going to be an interesting case. There is a weird fetish here between Marner/ Matthew and him. Maybe someone can trade for him after his signing bonus kicks in and then buy him out and Leafs sign him back for league minimum.

The acquiring team would need an arbitration case to open up a 2nd buyout window after July 1st when we've paid Marleau's bonus. Very specific scenario needs to exist.

I'd put Brown at 75% likely gone. It will entirely depend on a few scenarios. First, Kapanen, Johnsson and Marner extensions will play a part in this. The other thing is if they can completely remove Zaitsev and maybe even Marleau (with a miracle). If they re-sign a few players to cheap short-term deals and can remove a good chunk of their cap from the bad players, then it's possible they'd much rather keep him. But it might be wise to sell "high" if there's interest to grab a top 60 pick or two.

Gudbranson was traded for another bad-ish contract. This is the likely return for Zaitsev, where he'll go for another bad-ish contract. If Dubas can trade him for little to no [bad] cap space back, then people should praise him heavily.

Ozhiganov has been solid. Provided solid depth minutes. As long as the Leafs don't give him a 7 year contract, he should be back on a cheap contract to keep giving us decent depth. If he can work on his foot speed, he could be someone that surprises.

I don't expect a ton of value back on Zaitsev as first glance. The hope is more likely that whatever we get thrives with us, kind of like Lupul before the contract extension. Maybe Colin Miller continues to fall out of favour in Vegas? Hard to speculate between now and when it happens but I don't think the management group wants Zaitsev here next season.

 

[BlueForever75]

I don't even know how to respond to this... there is a lot of assumptions and inaccuracies in your post, and some of them are quite unrealistic, IMO. Also, I don't know if you get what I was trying to suggest.

There is no way that trading Brown alone will give us the cap space needed to retain the rest of the players on our roster.

All I was suggesting was that Dubas is likely preparring for departures of two or three forwards on our roster... He could have visions of playing Petan and Moore full-time next season. We will also likely have other guys battling out for jobs, whether they're acquired free agents, or Bracco, Or Korshkov, or Envall, or Marchment or another Marlie.


Acquiring Petan improves our young forward depth (which will be needed for ne, and giving Moore an opportunity this year

And my response is that Moore is a replacement for Lindholm this season and moving forward at a cheaper cost. And Brown being traded alone will allow Johnsson to be re-signed. Kapanen to me is the wildcard and it only is one depending on what other deals are made and what Marner signs for.

So I what I am saying again in short, is that Petan and Moore moves have nothing to do with Kapanen and Johnsson being resigned. Cause they all can be part of the solution.

 

[MyBudJT]

He 100% has and this has been well documented. His cap hit percentage was right next to Ehlers, Pastrnak and Larkin. He produced like them and got paid like them. I'm not going over this again

Kapanen will be paid based on his comparables. Nylander produced 120+ points by the time his ELC was up. Kapanen will have produced ~60.

You're assuming that's what he'll want. I'm sure Kapanen wants 20M per year but that doesn't mean it makes any sense. Hyman could say that he's just as important as Marner, so does that mean he should make 7M?

Show me Kapanen comparables around the league and let me know how many are getting paid 5M+ over 5-6 years (or similar cap hit percentage) after one strong ~25 goal and ~50 point season.

60 point players are not worth 7 mil.

Ehlers signed a much better contract
Pastrnak was more proven, and a better player.
Larkin also signed a better contract (and is better than Nylander).

The narrative that he got paid like Ehlers and Larkin is false.

A quick scan of a few comparables using your criteria:
Tom Wilson signed 5.166 mil with a career high of 15 goals and 35 points
Jonathan Drouin signed 5.5 mil with a caree rhigh of 21 goals and 53 points
Tomas Tatar signed at 5.3 mil a few years ago with career high of 29 goals and 56 points
Nino Niederrieter signed a 5.25 mil with a career high of 25 goals and 57 points

 

[rumman]

I still believe it's Nylander who gets traded, July 2nd, in a package to Carolina.

Leafs would lose a good player with plenty of upside to come, but it would help address the cap and his value get the Leafs a solid RHD something they are sorely lacking. The need for the said RHD will only become more obvious in the upcoming playoffs.

 

[SprDaVE]

60 point players are not worth 7 mil.

Ehlers signed a much better contract
Pastrnak was more proven, and a better player.
Larkin also signed a better contract (and is better than Nylander).

The narrative that he got paid like Ehlers and Larkin is false.

A quick scan of a few comparables using your criteria:
Tom Wilson signed 5.166 mil with a career high of 15 goals and 35 points
Jonathan Drouin signed 5.5 mil with a caree rhigh of 21 goals and 53 points
Tomas Tatar signed at 5.3 mil a few years ago with career high of 29 goals and 56 points
Nino Niederrieter signed a 5.25 mil with a career high of 25 goals and 57 points

Nylander produced better than Larkin and Ehlers in their respective 3 first seasons in the NHL. Pastrnak signed a more expensive deal at the time. Look up cap percentage and inflation then perhaps come back to me?

Drouin, Neiderreiter and Tatar had multiple seasons of 45+ points production. Nino and Tatar current cap hits were AFTER a bridge contract out of their ELC. This isn't remotely comparable either. Drouin is slightly comparable but has produced better and they signed him to a longer term deal.

Do you want to guess how much Tatar signed for after his ELC and one good season? Look it up. Hint: it was a 3 year deal and under 3M.

Do you want to guess how much Nino signed for after his ELC and one good season? Look it up. Hint: it was a 3 year deal and under 3M.

 

[MyBudJT]

And my response is that Moore is a replacement for Lindholm this season and moving forward at a cheaper cost. And Brown being traded alone will allow Johnsson to be re-signed. Kapanen to me is the wildcard and it only is one depending on what other deals are made and what Marner signs for.

So I what I am saying again in short, is that Petan and Moore moves have nothing to do with Kapanen and Johnsson being resigned. Cause they all can be part of the solution.

I disagree. Johnsson will likely be closer to 3 mil than 2.1 mil. I'd almost rather have Brown at that rate, especially if Brown is willing to take a paycut to stay in Toronto.

I also don't think you fully understand what I'm saying. I'm not saying Petan and Moore are precursers to Kapanen and Johnsson leaving. I'm just suggesting it could help prepare for such an event.

 

[deletethis]

Show me Kapanen comparables around the league and let me know how many are getting paid 5M+ over 5-6 years (or similar cap hit percentage) after one strong ~25 goal and ~50 point season.

Alex Tuch: $4.75M AAV for 7 years after 15 goals and 37 points (rookie season)
Jonathan Druoin: $5.5M AAV for 6 years after 21 goals and 53 points (22 yo)

Bo Horvat: $5.5M AAV for 6 years after 20 goals and 52 points (22 yo)
Alex Wennberg: $4.9M AAV for 6 years after 13 goals and 59 points (23 yo)

 

[SprDaVE]

Alex Tuch: $4.75M AAV for 7 years after 15 goals and 37 points (rookie season)
Jonathan Druoin: $5.5M AAV for 6 years after 21 goals and 53 points (22 yo)

Bo Horvat: $5.5M AAV for 6 years after 20 goals and 52 points (22 yo)
Alex Wennberg: $4.9M AAV for 6 years after 13 goals and 59 points (23 yo)

6+ years contracts. Kapanen isn't getting a long-term deal. Some of them had multiple season under their belt. This is Kapanens first full season.

 

[MyBudJT]

Nylander produced better than Larkin and Ehlers in their respective 3 first seasons in the NHL. Pastrnak signed a more expensive deal at the time. Look up cap percentage and inflation then perhaps come back to me?

Drouin, Neiderreiter and Tatar had multiple seasons of 45+ points production.

Nylander didn't produce better than Ehlers. False BoBo.

Larkin produced very similarily despite having absolutely nobody to play with. Nylander played on the coattails of Matthews.

Pastrnak signed a 0.01% more expensive deal. Big whoop. He was also much more deserving of such a deal.

If you're going to be that nitpicky, there is no perfect comparison... Drouin, Neiderreiter and Tatar are likely not as impotant on the PK as Kapanen is.
Also look at cap%.

I'm suggesting Kapanen is going to ask for at least 5 mil long term. That is equivalent to ~ 6% of cap in an 83 mil cap market.

Drouin signed at 7.07% of cap
Neiderreiter signed at 7% of cap
Tatar signed at 7.07% of cap

 

[SprDaVE]

Nylander didn't produce better than Ehlers. False BoBo.

Larkin produced very similarily despite having absolutely nobody to play with. Nylander played on the coattails of Matthews.

Pastrnak signed a 0.01% more expensive deal. Big whoop. He was also much more deserving of such a deal.

If you're going to be that nitpicky, there is no perfect comparison... Drouin, Neiderreiter and Tatar are likely not as impotant on the PK as Kapanen is.
Also look at cap%.

I'm suggesting Kapanen is going to ask for at least 5 mil long term. That is equivalent to ~ 6% of cap in an 83 mil cap market.

Drouin signed at 7.07% of cap
Neiderreiter signed at 7% of cap
Tatar signed at 7.07% of cap

"Nobody to play with" who cares? Production matters. He's doing better this year with practically a worst lineup. Ehlers, Nylander, Larkin and Pastrnak all had very similar production and got paid around the same cap hit. Nylander was absolutely paid what he deserved --- which is what you argued against.

I edited to add that Nino and Tatar signed 3 year contracts off their ELC for under 3M. They both signed to longer term deals after those 3 years.

At the end of the day, the Leafs will be bridging Kapanen and Johnsson 100% and most players agree to this to a certain degree. If they will not accept a bridge and absolutely want a long term contract, they will be traded.

 

[selltrade]

maybe its me, but I see Kadri going before KK and AJ ,,,

 

[MyBudJT]

maybe its me, but I see Kadri going before KK and AJ ,,,

Interesting point, that could be the case...

 

[deletethis]

6+ years contracts. Kapanen isn't getting a long-term deal. Some of them had multiple season under their belt. This is Kapanens first full season.

Nice job moving the goal posts.

Tuch's deal was after 1 full season. Drouin's deal was after only 1 "GOOD" season. The other two deals were after a few seasons of the same type of seasons.

AND... why isn't Kapanen signing a long term deal? Because you declare he isn't?